MAFIA 39 - GAME THREAD

[xorxes]

Rdrivera2005 - Has made some good comments, pointed out where other people made errors, helpful to town. Townlean, but this is exactly how I felt about rdrivera the last two games.

Could you pinpoint for me which one of his comments you found helpful to town? He only posted eight times so it should be easy to find.

[damo666]

Alright. I kinda wanna shoot Vecna

Go on then

Didn't you just post a townlean on Vecna? Why are you encouraging the last cannonholder to shoot a townlean of yours?

More of a dare than encouragement really. I don't think Durga knows who to shoot (now beginning to wonder if she has the cannon at all). I'd prefer Ghug was shot but Vecna joint second best of a few. I'm just impatient for action.

[Tom Bombadil]

Low conviction, maybe. But not low effort. There is very little to go on. bozo said nothing of substance so it’s hard to read into the NK. Moscow has some interaction but the only one that really interests me is damo (but I’ve never played with him so it’s hard to come to a conclusion)

It’s a gut read with RHK. He seems to be forcing a laid back attitude. He’s normally pretty casual as brain said, but I’ve played with him many times and its striking me as unusual.

So your vote is off of feelings and not off of an actual case? Thats like the lowest effort vote you can give.

Yes.

Unless you’d rather me make a case off of the zero vote analysis we have. Like it’s literally the only way you can make a case..,

[Squigs44]

Rdrivera2005 - Has made some good comments, pointed out where other people made errors, helpful to town. Townlean, but this is exactly how I felt about rdrivera the last two games.

Could you pinpoint for me which one of his comments you found helpful to town? He only posted eight times so it should be easy to find.

After rereading, I realized he hasn't posted as much as I thought. Mostly two comments I guess:

Bozo was the N1 target kill last game, why it's so weird he being the target on N0 on this one?

This comment was one. He gave a different opinion than others that helped stop the speculation that was coming from the Bozo kill.

I can't figure out why there is one scum between ghug xorxes Vecna. Can you expand of that rhk

Mostly based off of reactions to/from MF.

-MF mentions relief when the GMs clarify the gunshot and no one was actually shot. Ghug was the person you were mentioning shooting at the time. Yes, cannons don't adj until EoN but it't not out of Moscow's wheelhouse to miss that.

-MF then shades damo for wanting to shoot xorx (And damo straight up calls him scumbag) in a really odd exchange.

-Vecna feels a bit different than normal Vecna. I normally see Vecna as somewhat paranoid and likes to snipe at people's comments. He seems really chill this time around. This is the weakest of those three by far.

-Xorx spent a ton of time N0 talking about strategy and mechanics, without a lot of thoughts on the player themselves. It seemed like much ado about nothing. A cheap way to seem active.

I had the same feeling about Xorxes, too focused on mechanics and claims, looks a lot like when he was scum with me. I know it's a bit of OMGUS, but his comment about me looks like a lot more like just throwing shade then actual scum hunting.

I also suspect Squigs. I was really afraid of him last two games as scum and this game he looks just coasting. If we had PRs it could be an explanation, but we don't have.

And I need to re-read this exchange you mention from Moscow, but without the bot it won't be now.

Also this comment.

[Jamiet99uk]

Vote Count 1.5

DemonRHK (2) - Durga, Tom Bombadil
Tom Bombadil (2) - y2kjbk, Squigs44
Snowy801 (1) - Brainbomb
Ghug (1) - Damo666
Squigs44 (1) - Worcej
Vecna (1) - Ghug

Currently NOBODY is set to be lynched.

You have 25.5 hours remaining in Day 1.

[Squigs44]

Low conviction, maybe. But not low effort. There is very little to go on. bozo said nothing of substance so it’s hard to read into the NK. Moscow has some interaction but the only one that really interests me is damo (but I’ve never played with him so it’s hard to come to a conclusion)

It’s a gut read with RHK. He seems to be forcing a laid back attitude. He’s normally pretty casual as brain said, but I’ve played with him many times and its striking me as unusual.

So your vote is off of feelings and not off of an actual case? Thats like the lowest effort vote you can give.

Yes.

Unless you’d rather me make a case off of the zero vote analysis we have. Like it’s literally the only way you can make a case..,

But you could point out places where people contradict themselves, specific comments that don't make sense or are worded poorly, interactions between two different people that feel forced, etc. There are plenty of things other than vote count analysis or feelings that can form a case against someone.

[xorxes]

Chaqa - Inactive. Null
Snowy801 - Hasn’t done anything this game except joke. Why do we have so many inactive people this game? Slight scum.

Why is one null and the other slight scum, what sets them apart?

[brainbomb]

Since there are no scum pr only goons- their items and ability as scum in meta is how theyd be structured.

Moscow was fascinated by my call to shoot bozo. So for the most part it makes it sound like at least 2 scum were interested in bozo. Meaning the other scum were maybe not interested in worrying about who to kill.

Imo this makes a moscow-vecna-snowy-chaqa scumteam seem very reasonable

[xorxes]

After rereading, I realized he hasn't posted as much as I thought. Mostly two comments I guess:

Bozo was the N1 target kill last game, why it's so weird he being the target on N0 on this one?

This comment was one. He gave a different opinion than others that helped stop the speculation that was coming from the Bozo kill.

All right, I'll let you get away with that one.

I had the same feeling about Xorxes, too focused on mechanics and claims, looks a lot like when he was scum with me. I know it's a bit of OMGUS, but his comment about me looks like a lot more like just throwing shade then actual scum hunting.

I also suspect Squigs. I was really afraid of him last two games as scum and this game he looks just coasting. If we had PRs it could be an explanation, but we don't have.

And I need to re-read this exchange you mention from Moscow, but without the bot it won't be now.

Also this comment.

The part where he suspects me, or the part where he suspects you?

I'm still waiting for his answer to my "shady comment" too.

[brainbomb]

This game insofar is what they refer to as a "townstomp".

Mafia lays low and lets little imformation ruin the town. Theres usually a catharsis in these situations where town gets so confident they start fearing things are too easy and they start lynching wrong.

Most often its because numerous clears look like scum because of inactivity- and they all get killed or claim under pressure and scum eventually ends up with 1 guy still.alive deep who directs the whole town.

Its important to note the only way anyone can get embedded right now is by town killing town in lynch and gunshot. So towns core collapses on itself.

By targeting inactives now we can potentially avoid all of that

[Tom Bombadil]

So your vote is off of feelings and not off of an actual case? Thats like the lowest effort vote you can give.

Yes.

Unless you’d rather me make a case off of the zero vote analysis we have. Like it’s literally the only way you can make a case..,

But you could point out places where people contradict themselves, specific comments that don't make sense or are worded poorly, interactions between two different people that feel forced, etc. There are plenty of things other than vote count analysis or feelings that can form a case against someone.

I think contradictions are usually NAI - as are poorly worded statements. Statements feeling forced or unnatural, interaction with known scum and vote analysis are the best tools to me. The latter two not much help. The first points towards RHK more than anyone else to me.

[xorxes]

This game insofar is what they refer to as a "townstomp".

Mafia lays low and lets little imformation ruin the town. Theres usually a catharsis in these situations where town gets so confident they start fearing things are too easy and they start lynching wrong.

Most often its because numerous clears look like scum because of inactivity- and they all get killed or claim under pressure and scum eventually ends up with 1 guy still.alive deep who directs the whole town.

Its important to note the only way anyone can get embedded right now is by town killing town in lynch and gunshot. So towns core collapses on itself.

By targeting inactives now we can potentially avoid all of that

I will join you with a ##VOTE snowy

[Durga]

I never said Vecna was town? Did I drunk post?

[Squigs44]

Chaqa - Inactive. Null
Snowy801 - Hasn’t done anything this game except joke. Why do we have so many inactive people this game? Slight scum.

Why is one null and the other slight scum, what sets them apart?

Chaqa has pretty much admitted that he has not even read the thread. Snowy came into the thread with a joke, and came back with an anchor. I think Chaqa is genuinely MIA, while Snowy's inactivity looks more like laziness/lurking.

[flash2015]

My apologies for not communicating much. I didn't want to say too much the first night lest I give away that I have a gun. And we had a bit of a family tragedy Thursday night...so this hasn't been my highest priority.

Having said that I really didn't like Xorxes plan for cannon holders to announce themselves. It made no sense...especially from such an experienced player (it feels a bit scummy). I don't understand how anyone could possibly believe there is a chance I am still scum (how would giving town two chances to kill scum on the very first day have benefited scum??)...but perhaps in Squiggs case he is just displaying his reachy normalness.

Having said this, I probably got too excited about my cannon. There was no reason why I needed to shoot that early. I could have left it 24 hours to see who tried to discredit BB (a common scum strategy is to cast doubt on the bleeding obvious). It also would have given some time to see whether Durga's cannon claim was real. I haven't gone back and checked - did Durga reclaim the cannon before or after I shot? If she doesn't have the cannon, the person who does have the remaining cannon knows she is now lying.

[xorxes]

Vecna - Pretty standard Vecna. Active, pushing people, makes sense, seems genuine. Town.

Who did Vecna push? I lean town on Vecna, but not for any of the reasons you give.

[flash2015]

Still feels wrong not voting for BB today. Perhaps I should just go down the list?:

##VOTE Squiggs44

[y2kjbk]

Tom def seems to want to brush off the MF flip as uninformative.

[xorxes]

I don't understand how anyone could possibly believe there is a chance I am still scum (how would giving town two chances to kill scum on the very first day have benefited scum??)...but perhaps in Squiggs case he is just displaying his reachy normalness.

If you could be towncleared by shooting a teammate of course you would do so. You only need one scum to survive to win the game. But precisely because there is a chance that you are still scum, it makes it unlikely that you are, because wasting your hidden cannon on a teammate was probably not worth it for just some early towncred. In any case we don't need to worry about you for now because Mafia will probably NK you at some point, because you are close to clear. If you make it to the endgame, then you will still need to have done more than that one shot to be completely trusted, but that's a long time away.

I haven't gone back and checked - did Durga reclaim the cannon before or after I shot?

After.

If she doesn't have the cannon, the person who does have the remaining cannon knows she is now lying.

Not likely. She could still be scum (unlikely but possible) but she almost certainly has the gun.

[xorxes]

My current thinking for the scumteam is Squigs, rivera and one of Chaqa/snowy, and perhaps y2k as a first substitute if I'm wrong about one of them.