M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Vecna]

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

Damo's doing math - conf!town

Id expect engineers to be able to spot faulty statistics

[Vecna]

Worcej will you stop fucking chuntering about your suburban American life and sporting interests?

It's bad enough having to watch you post about that crap on Facebook.

I smell an unfriend and a sad worcej coming up

[ghug]

And if I was a vig, I'd be shooting her.

You should do that thing you were advocating for so strongly and listen to other peoples opinions some time

I've missed the strong opinions on why kgray is town. Do you know of any of the top of your head?

Some of them I just flat out disagree with because they're based on an assumption of 'lack of risk' that I perceive to be false. Others are just 'she's solving/hunting = town', which I again go to.

She's thinking like I do. I realize this is a little tenuous since we've never both been town in a game before, but I found when I was scum and she was town that either she was parroting my logic or I was annoyed by the strength of her arguments. When she was scum last game, I couldn't get where she was coming on.

I also don't think she's as great as pretending to solve as everyone thinks she is. Things like going out on a limb to townread bozo for a teacon connection that nobody else is talking about just didn't happen last game.

[ghug]

Question - have a scum team ever actually killed one of their own members with a NK?

My teammate tried to roleblock me once because I missed him.

[Vecna]

And if I was a vig, I'd be shooting her.

You should do that thing you were advocating for so strongly and listen to other peoples opinions some time

I've missed the strong opinions on why kgray is town. Do you know of any of the top of your head?

Some of them I just flat out disagree with because they're based on an assumption of 'lack of risk' that I perceive to be false. Others are just 'she's solving/hunting = town', which I again go to.

The breath of arguments are wide. She is a lot more reserved as scum. Her arguments are nowhere near as novel. She is nowhere near as inquisitiveness. She just smells the general thread sentiment and copies it. Here she goes against the grain, attacks people, tells people off, questions everything constantly.

The differences, once you know what to look for, are huge.

[Hamilton Brian]

I feel like Neph and Maniac have been more active at this point. Some good posts. Too good to be believable?

I am curious about that POE list from Neph. Are those players in any particular order?

[ghug]

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

TIL Vecna can count.

[Hamilton Brian]

The breath of arguments are wide. She is a lot more reserved as scum. Her arguments are nowhere near as novel. She is nowhere near as inquisitiveness. She just smells the general thread sentiment and copies it. Here she goes against the grain, attacks people, tells people off, questions everything constantly.

The differences, once you know what to look for, are huge.

I am having a hard time discerning their play this game from last. The differences must be so slight.

[ghug]

Well, okay, let's talk about my favorite subject: me! What's my alignment and why? I like to talk about that. Talk about that with me.

I have no idea lol. That's why i wanted you to post more.

Okay. Talk about the evidence of my alignment (either way) that you've seen so far. Or talk about the stuff that you are grappling with and unsure how to sort.

Imma do this too. There are three things I've found to be alignment indicative:

1. Your EOD1 voting.
2. Your defense of yourself early D2.
3. The amount of reading and solving you've done.

We discussed 1 at length. How do you think I should feel about the others? How do you think I do feel?

[ghug]

Question - have a scum team ever actually killed one of their own members with a NK?

My teammate tried to roleblock me once because I missed him.

Bussed*

[worcej]

Worcej will you stop fucking chuntering about your suburban American life and sporting interests?

It's bad enough having to watch you post about that crap on Facebook.

And here I am liking your hobbies and shit...

Hold up, this isn't mean worcej? Ne saying fingers crossed is evil but this is ok?

I have a better understanding of who he is as a person. His comment doesn't strike me as mean spirited because I have more information about him as a person.

In regards to you, I don't know you well enough to have background information, so I process what is presented to me and have only that to go by.

[Vecna]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

TIL Vecna can count.

I used to teach statistics during my phd

[worcej]

You should do that thing you were advocating for so strongly and listen to other peoples opinions some time

I've missed the strong opinions on why kgray is town. Do you know of any of the top of your head?

Some of them I just flat out disagree with because they're based on an assumption of 'lack of risk' that I perceive to be false. Others are just 'she's solving/hunting = town', which I again go to.

The breath of arguments are wide. She is a lot more reserved as scum. Her arguments are nowhere near as novel. She is nowhere near as inquisitiveness. She just smells the general thread sentiment and copies it. Here she goes against the grain, attacks people, tells people off, questions everything constantly.

The differences, once you know what to look for, are huge.

This is the best description I've seen yet. I don't see what you're seeing, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. I'll look harder.

@Vecna - what is your thought on the Jamie forced post count modifier that he is inconsistent on enforcing? Also, has your non-vote grouping changed in any way?

[Vecna]

my non-vote grouping?

[Hellenic Riot]

Continuing from some of the earlier posts as I pull out specifics:

Maniac townreads kgray, Balki, and myself and also HR and ghug.

So Maniac, your scumreads?

HR reads myself, kgray, and Balki as town along with ghug. And ghug is your strongest townread?

HR, who would you like to see as wagons for D3?

I've never townread you

[Balki Bartokomous]

I have no idea lol. That's why i wanted you to post more.

Okay. Talk about the evidence of my alignment (either way) that you've seen so far. Or talk about the stuff that you are grappling with and unsure how to sort.

Imma do this too. There are three things I've found to be alignment indicative:

1. Your EOD1 voting.
2. Your defense of yourself early D2.
3. The amount of reading and solving you've done.

We discussed 1 at length. How do you think I should feel about the others? How do you think I do feel?

I’d put 2 And 3 as NAI. No idea about your thoughts on these points. I’m curious.

[Nephthys]

What does that mean? You think that all remaining scum are in that group?

With the exception of the conf scum - Flum/HB/teacon

@Neph:

It appears that you townread Maniac.

Why is that?

No idea, I just delete the names when I move them out

[Hellenic Riot]

Continuing from some of the earlier posts as I pull out specifics:

Maniac townreads kgray, Balki, and myself and also HR and ghug.

So Maniac, your scumreads?

HR reads myself, kgray, and Balki as town along with ghug. And ghug is your strongest townread?

HR, who would you like to see as wagons for D3?

I've never townread you

And I most definitely have not townread Balki... How are you even coming up with this?

[aarodactyl]

What are you looking at in the thread right now and why?

Me? I can’t sleep and so I’ve been checking in to see if there’s anything new. I don’t have much to contribute, just general confusion at why the brain train happened.

I have to confess, I haven't really focused on you at all. Can you tell me how you have voted and why?

That makes sense. It’s probably hard to separate the new players, especially because none of us are posting a lot.

To answer your question, D1 I started with a meme vote on flum because he suggested we Daykill the new players. I switched to unvote to clarify I wasn’t serious. Then I switched to ND. People pointed out that this was a bad vote because I had previously townread ND. However, I had lost a lot of confidence in my read and also I was fed up with how they were picking a fight with basically everyone. As an aside, I was the third vote on ND so to be honest, I think it only looks bad if maniac ends up being scum (because at that point, I don’t think tea was a top wagon).

For D2, I had intended to read the entire game because I was finally able to tell people apart. I only got to page 50 before giving up. However, based on that, I felt very strongly that brain was town, so I was never going to vote for them. I also felt that HB was scum. I don’t have a great reason for this admittedly. I think it was a combination of their early posting and that brain scumread them early on (I could be wrong about this. I’m on my phone and it makes looking at post history hard). When I voted, there was a wagon on you, hb, and kgray. I think kgray leans town and I thought hb leaned more scum than you so I voted for them. Then when it was between brain and hb at the end of the round, I sat on hb because brain was town in my eyes.

Also as an aside, I don’t think you’re scum anymore. When I said I suspected you based on voting, it was because I thought you jumped on the Teacon train when it was too late to matter. I was told by I think kgray that I could have mattered and after seeing how fast the brain wagon took off, I buy this now. Also looking back in posting, I think you lean town now.

[ghug]

Okay. Talk about the evidence of my alignment (either way) that you've seen so far. Or talk about the stuff that you are grappling with and unsure how to sort.

Imma do this too. There are three things I've found to be alignment indicative:

1. Your EOD1 voting.
2. Your defense of yourself early D2.
3. The amount of reading and solving you've done.

We discussed 1 at length. How do you think I should feel about the others? How do you think I do feel?

I’d put 2 And 3 as NAI. No idea about your thoughts on these points. I’m curious.

I got town vibes from #2, though I have enough respect for your trickiness that I can't lean too strongly on it.

#3 is starting to feel pretty damning to me. You primarily seem to care about people's opinions of yourself, which on its own isn't the worst way to to read people, but I haven't seen you actually use it to read anyone, and you don't seem to even remember my saying your defense early day 2 seemed townie after we argued. I don't think I can confidently restate your opinion on a single player off the top of my head, which isn't great.