M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Squigs44]

Dousing focuses most of his energy on defending himself. Do you really think so highly of him?

I’ll just pile on to agree that Dousing is weird, I need to read his iso but I am starting to think he might be scum.

It was either you or Squiggs that defended Flav for having a different MO to the rest of the thread.

If it was you than this argument is hypocritical. If not uhh… I just have a different MO to y'all

It was me, although I think scum have more to gain by focusing on a self defense, so just claiming "I think different, townread me" isn't what I wanted. It's people thinking about whether that difference is actually scummy or not

[Dousing]

Did D&W have a second ability?

tbh even if he did I'd kill 1 mafia for 1 town any day???

especially when you're talking 1 town that was being generally scumread and one scum that was being generally townread

obv it sucks we lost a town but I wouldn't change a thing ab the results of N2 tbh

Ok so the Eldritch knight is who D&W was. He's the one who made it Balki vs him. We voted out Balki.
The battlemaster says the second place wagon dies too. In this case, the second place wagon was a town PR. The battlemaster power therefore got a town PR killed, and we have no idea who used it. (It might even have been town).
If mafia used it, it clearly was an effective use for them, given how the day played out.
1 hidden power use=dead town PR (who would have been completely cleared after the balki flip).

Yes, I am content with how the phase went as a whole, considering going we did trade 1 mafia for 1 scumread player at the start of the phase. It wouldn't have even been a trade if not for the battlemaster power .

We keep saying, mafia got a town PR killed.

no they didn't? At that point D&W's role was used. He was just a regular guy now.

even if you want to say "Oh, but its a clear", guy gets murked by NK, like most clears.

Not sure the point in all this, but its less clear cut then some of you are trying to pretend it is.

See? I thought the same thing!

…But I never read the setup so I was pretty sure I was just getting smt wrong…

[Vecna]

D1 town BM holds because is thinking generally, or is generally uncertain and hopes to make use of it better later, or thinks many high wagons is town, or is one of top wagons or highly scumread themselves.

D1 scum BM holds because one of the top wagons was scum/themself or they were planning to hold until a more impactful time or they were just thinking and strategizing and uncertain

I feel people dont take into consideration that scum is probably really worried they need to create ideal circumstances for the tadpole.

they actually need someone to accept it. and they preferably need to hit a usefull PR.

Using the BM day2 to then tadpole in the night seems pretty obvious, with 4 deaths, just before we start killing off scums.

too bad for them that flash wagon started. im guessing the town reads overall arent so bad that they figured waitibg longer with the tadpole would result in higher chances of the recipient accepting.

What’s your take on Just this game?

i mean, im voting him at the time of this question and i talked about him a few times now.

[President Eden]

placeholder-ish ##VOTE Foxcastle to meet reqs

[Jamiet99uk]

Lfischl has been replaced by President Eden

President Eden has replaced lfischl

OH LORD, JOHN HENRY IS AMONG US

[aarodactyl]

Ok so the Eldritch knight is who D&W was. He's the one who made it Balki vs him. We voted out Balki.
The battlemaster says the second place wagon dies too. In this case, the second place wagon was a town PR. The battlemaster power therefore got a town PR killed, and we have no idea who used it. (It might even have been town).
If mafia used it, it clearly was an effective use for them, given how the day played out.
1 hidden power use=dead town PR (who would have been completely cleared after the balki flip).

Yes, I am content with how the phase went as a whole, considering going we did trade 1 mafia for 1 scumread player at the start of the phase. It wouldn't have even been a trade if not for the battlemaster power .

We keep saying, mafia got a town PR killed.

no they didn't? At that point D&W's role was used. He was just a regular guy now.

even if you want to say "Oh, but its a clear", guy gets murked by NK, like most clears.

Not sure the point in all this, but its less clear cut then some of you are trying to pretend it is.

See? I thought the same thing!

…But I never read the setup so I was pretty sure I was just getting smt wrong…

Once we flip all the scum pr, town pr become clears - even if they’ve used up their power.

[Dousing]

Ok so the Eldritch knight is who D&W was. He's the one who made it Balki vs him. We voted out Balki.
The battlemaster says the second place wagon dies too. In this case, the second place wagon was a town PR. The battlemaster power therefore got a town PR killed, and we have no idea who used it. (It might even have been town).
If mafia used it, it clearly was an effective use for them, given how the day played out.
1 hidden power use=dead town PR (who would have been completely cleared after the balki flip).

Yes, I am content with how the phase went as a whole, considering going we did trade 1 mafia for 1 scumread player at the start of the phase. It wouldn't have even been a trade if not for the battlemaster power .

We keep saying, mafia got a town PR killed.

no they didn't? At that point D&W's role was used. He was just a regular guy now.

even if you want to say "Oh, but its a clear", guy gets murked by NK, like most clears.

Not sure the point in all this, but its less clear cut then some of you are trying to pretend it is.

A. Battle master is town that used ability before duel
B. Battle master is town that used ability after duel
C. Battle master is scum that used ability before duel
D. Battle master is scum that used ability after duel

Possible motivations:

A. Somehow thought that we had caught scum or would catch scum on by EOD2. I would go as far to say this is so unlikely that we should eliminate this as a possibility. Wagons change so often at EOD that it doesn’t make sense to that, let alone this early in the game

B. Saw that the wagons were locked in, and decided to pull the trigger. I would saw this is much more likely, especially if they already suspected Balki and feared a tie. This also works if they thought Balki would flip as town and wanted to avoid the mafia fuckery that might’ve ensued afterwards.

C. LOL I’m going to do the mafia a favor and not analyze this because they truly are doomed if they thought this was a good idea.

D. Simple. Get rid of a PR so they could take a shot at someone else at night. This must’ve been a very obvious shot because it failed

This post looks like busywork with no actual substance. Also I disagree with Yoyo’s logic on situation D, DW was no longer a PR and was a CLEAR candidate for a NK.

So it’s fairly unlikely that battlemaster could’ve been declared after the duel was announced

[Vecna]

@vecna please claim your night tadpole/save situation

its like in the 2nd post of the nightphase bunny. for some reason u used my posting as a reason to start this nonsense.

If i qas tadpoled id have burned it instantly while having a very hearthy laugh atthe scums expense.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok so the Eldritch knight is who D&W was. He's the one who made it Balki vs him. We voted out Balki.
The battlemaster says the second place wagon dies too. In this case, the second place wagon was a town PR. The battlemaster power therefore got a town PR killed, and we have no idea who used it. (It might even have been town).
If mafia used it, it clearly was an effective use for them, given how the day played out.
1 hidden power use=dead town PR (who would have been completely cleared after the balki flip).

Yes, I am content with how the phase went as a whole, considering going we did trade 1 mafia for 1 scumread player at the start of the phase. It wouldn't have even been a trade if not for the battlemaster power .

We keep saying, mafia got a town PR killed.

no they didn't? At that point D&W's role was used. He was just a regular guy now.

even if you want to say "Oh, but its a clear", guy gets murked by NK, like most clears.

Not sure the point in all this, but its less clear cut then some of you are trying to pretend it is.

A. Battle master is town that used ability before duel
B. Battle master is town that used ability after duel
C. Battle master is scum that used ability before duel
D. Battle master is scum that used ability after duel

Possible motivations:

A. Somehow thought that we had caught scum or would catch scum on by EOD2. I would go as far to say this is so unlikely that we should eliminate this as a possibility. Wagons change so often at EOD that it doesn’t make sense to that, let alone this early in the game

B. Saw that the wagons were locked in, and decided to pull the trigger. I would saw this is much more likely, especially if they already suspected Balki and feared a tie. This also works if they thought Balki would flip as town and wanted to avoid the mafia fuckery that might’ve ensued afterwards.

C. LOL I’m going to do the mafia a favor and not analyze this because they truly are doomed if they thought this was a good idea.

D. Simple. Get rid of a PR so they could take a shot at someone else at night. This must’ve been a very obvious shot because it failed

Remember that B and D required the Battle Master to input their order at just 60 seconds' notice. The GM announced the Duel at ~31m to deadline, and the Battle Master cannot be used in the final 30 minutes of the phase.

[foodcoats]

Yes*

*see my most recent reads list, or any of the half dozen posts I've made on Jamie, or my voting record the past 2 days

Very well, I disagree, but whatever.

I think we agree on Bona, don’t we? Would you make a bona wagon happen?

##VOTE Bona

I'm already voting Bona, and have been since start of day. I'm still trying to process his posting yesterday. I think he's shown a bit more of what I remember from Bona in the past, but it lacks a lot of the cleverness and passion that I remember, so I feel like this is more likely scum!Bona here. But since I involved myself by picking a fight, I'm also a bit biased on thinking his argument is weak.

He's certainly still near the top of my POE, and I'm not sure I want lfischl today if we can give PE a chance to do something, so it's either Bona or Jamie for me today I think. I'm also not upset at a Bunny wagon

Derp. Guess I should look at the bot once in a while.

[Dousing]

@Dousing

Looking through your iso you literally never make any scum reads. Or town reads.

Please to give us 3 top towns and 2 top scum and why.

##VOTE Dousing

I just realized I never answered your question I’m sorry.

Top 3 town (genuinely had a bit of trouble with this):
Vecna
Sweet (Sweet tends to swing from -100 <—> +100 on the townread scale for me)
Squigs

Top 3 scum (this one is a lot easier):
Yoyo
Bunny
Flum

[Jamiet99uk]

The Foodcoats wagon has stalled. I would like to invest more in ##Vote Ghug.

As I said before... Ghug goes through frequent bouts of posting, in between long absences. When he posts, he posts a lot, but so much of it just seems to be.... fluff. I'm concerned about high post / low impact Ghug here.

[foodcoats]

##vote squiggs

This reminds me of when I was mafia and tried to get wagons on xorxes. Those were heady days.

I feel like this post should be easy to comprehend but I have no idea what you’re saying.

Xorxes was the God Emperor of Town. Basically I think Squigs is so townie that currently it is madness to scumread him unless you have some very interesting and novel argument.

But I have been in situations when I was scum and saw a very good, powerful, highly townread town and so I attacked them. I did this with xorxes I think on multiple occasions (several years ago when xorx played here I rolled mafia 3 or 4 times in a row).

This reminds me of that. Bona is scum trying to cut down the town leader.

[Vecna]

Guys get off dip

##VOTE GHUG

Eod is in what, 4 minutes? An hour and 4?

this vote was also off note. i believe someone made the argumentbefore

Just did some VCA from Will, everytime he's voted things changed before EOD and he wasnt there to change his vote to change it. In fact he voted Balki and then switched the vote. So odd how Balki ended up being the one against Dip that day. This vote makes so much sense in context, this is exactly when the Balki wagon was picking up today too, right?

I think if we are the right the mafia picked D2 to be the battlemaster role; then making SURE Balki didnt have a runaway wagon was IMPORTANT.

my man, synthesizing strings of information together into a narrative that works.

everytime these patterns are thought up and they make all the sense in the world, tbey still tend being not what happened at all. i learned this the hard way a good number of times. theyre so appetizing to chase though, to see if the pattern our brain recognized is correct.

[foodcoats]

Dousing focuses most of his energy on defending himself. Do you really think so highly of him?

I’ll just pile on to agree that Dousing is weird, I need to read his iso but I am starting to think he might be scum.

It was either you or Squiggs that defended Flav for having a different MO to the rest of the thread.

If it was you than this argument is hypocritical. If not uhh… I just have a different MO to y'all

Help me out, then. Give me 3 concrete town reads and 2 concrete scum reads and why for each.

[BunnyGo]

Hamilton Brian (9): Fluminator Ezio Foxcastle BunnyGo worcej Vecna sweetandcool DiplomacyandWarfare damo666
damo666 (6): Squigs44 Dousing Chaqa foodcoats FlaviusAetius Jamiet99uk
FlaviusAetius (3): JustAGuyNamedWill aarodactyl DemonRHK
DiplomacyandWarfare (2): Hamilton Brian Kakarroto
kingofthepirates (1): kingofthepirates (lol)
Vecna (1): TheMadMonarch
BunnyGo (1): ghug
ghug (1): Bonatogether
JustAGuyNamedWill (1): Col7by
Fluminator (1): lfischl


three deaths? sheesh.


Balki Bartokomous (13): Squigs44 DiplomacyandWarfare sweetandcool Col7by FlaviusAetius ghug aarodactyl Vecna Fluminator Ezio Foxcastle Bonatogether lfischl
DiplomacyandWarfare (6): DemonRHK worcej Jamiet99uk Yoyoyozo foodcoats BunnyGo
ghug (2): Dousing JustAGuyNamedWill
damo666 (1): TheMadMonarch
No-Kill (1): Balki Bartokomous (BoldStrategyCotton.gif)


nice play with Eldritch Knight by D&W.
no kill night 2... suggestive of tadpole use or a save.

yea yea "low effort contribution" my mom said your contribution last night was low effort

Questions:

1) were you saved or offered a tadpole?

2) what do you make of fish showing up with 30 minutes to go knowing what’s going on EOD2?

[President Eden]

I'm not super confident with my reasoning atm, but:

1. When D&W dueled Balki, he made it virtually inevitable (IMO) that both would flip.
2. Mafia in that scenario would like to save Balki if realistic, but would not want to end on D&W if Balki dies. Balki gave his team an easy out to flip to him by voting no kill and then himself.
3. Town in that scenario lack the knowledge to plan where they end, and would just vote their suspect.

D&W's voters stayed in place post-duel announcement and despite the no kill vote. This reflects better on RHK, worcej, Yoyo, Bunny (all of whom were online around T-10min when Balki voted no-kill). Unfortunately for Jamie, I can't give him the same credit because he wasn't online to see that.

Fox held on as long as possible before flipping at the end. That behavior most consistently fits my expectation of what mafia would do.

There's other stuff in his D2 posting that doesn't sit right, but I haven't worked out how much of it matters yet. Maybe post about it later

[Vecna]

its worth noting that if the battlemaster is scum, the votes after D&Ws dual was engaged wont tell us anything. In that case they wouldve known that a vote for D&W is better to look more towny on the flip.

I think Balki was genuinely trying to stay alive, so I don't think mafia knew

Hmm I know i said before that Ezio was the one who flipped the switch on Balki and swung the day but maybe it was actually Fluminator...
Ezio, Fox, and Lfischl(not to mention Balki) all voted him after this.
If we go back even earlier its Vecna..hmm

Vecna votes Balki at 00:10
Flum votes Balki at 00:09
Balki votes himself at 00:06
Ezio votes Bali at 00:05
Fox votes Balki at 00:02
Bona votes Balki at 00:01
lfischl votes Balki at 00:01

NGL
Fox voting Balki so late is very sus, especially someone who had so much beef with him...and he only switched after a tie was possible

Actually WAIT so many people voted Balki to "avoid the tie"
lfischl, Bona, and Fox...hmm well thats pro townie to me, people were legit advocating for a tie and so many people were mad at Dip for doing what he did. I dont think mafia move their vote at that stage

it the BM was scum, the scum likely changed to balki before me as well. theyd wanna get in on the ground floor. conditional reasoning thoug, might not be helpfull for a good while

[foodcoats]

I’ll just pile on to agree that Dousing is weird, I need to read his iso but I am starting to think he might be scum.

It was either you or Squiggs that defended Flav for having a different MO to the rest of the thread.

If it was you than this argument is hypocritical. If not uhh… I just have a different MO to y'all

Help me out, then. Give me 3 concrete town reads and 2 concrete scum reads and why for each.

Nvm i saw your response, thankee

[BunnyGo]

@vecna please claim your night tadpole/save situation

its like in the 2nd post of the nightphase bunny. for some reason u used my posting as a reason to start this nonsense.

If i qas tadpoled id have burned it instantly while having a very hearthy laugh atthe scums expense.

Did you? If you were tadpoled and burned it you should be shouting so to the thread like a roleblock claim but more.