MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

If there are multiple cop reports and none of the reporters are NKd what then?

I’m actually hoping this happens. Hammering brain was exciting but it feels like the game has died out compared to last game. Or maybe it’s just the fact I have a job again.

Congrats on being employed. Always good to have a paycheck coming in!

[worcej]

Well golly...we'll just have to play a game and solve. It's not like Durganator isn't an obvious next wagon. I didn't even bother wasting a scan on her.

My point is I am unsure a town fake reporting is a good town move.

Don't care. I'm reporting my scans later.

Hmmm... stubborn Bunny is interesting to see.

[aarodactyl]

There's absolutely no benefit in a cop that isn't HB outing tonight. If HB isn't the cop then it's his job to eat the bullet to save the cop. We don't *want* uncertainty in that scenario. Period.

Scum may not kill HB.

HB may not be cop.

Scum may kill cop.

If cop hasn't given us any info that's of great benefit. To scum.

I've said this at some point. I'm not sure why people are so against the cop revealing.

[aarodactyl]

If there are multiple cop reports and none of the reporters are NKd what then?

I’m actually hoping this happens. Hammering brain was exciting but it feels like the game has died out compared to last game. Or maybe it’s just the fact I have a job again.

Congrats on being employed. Always good to have a paycheck coming in!

Thanks! I was always employed though. I was just out on medical leave, so my checks were coming mostly from WA for a while.

[worcej]

Bitcoin is at 40k wtf. WHEN WILL IT BURST? WILL IT BURST?

I remember having the option to buy these when they were new...

You always miss the shots you never take...

[worcej]

Bitcoin is at 40k wtf. WHEN WILL IT BURST? WILL IT BURST?

Do coins usually burst?

I told you to stop using helium-filled balloons as currency.

"It'll never take off", I said.

**slow clap**

Well done Jamie, this one was good.

[President Eden]

There's absolutely no benefit in a cop that isn't HB outing tonight. If HB isn't the cop then it's his job to eat the bullet to save the cop. We don't *want* uncertainty in that scenario. Period.

Scum may not kill HB.

HB may not be cop.

Scum may kill cop.

If cop hasn't given us any info that's of great benefit. To scum.

I've said this at some point. I'm not sure why people are so against the cop revealing.

Speaking for my own thinking -- the only reason I'm concerned at all about when the Cop should out is that it seems pretty obvious to me that HB outed himself as Cop at EOD2. I cannot imagine the mafia didn't notice it since those of us around when it happened certainly did. It wouldn't have escaped brainbomb's notice, if nothing else.
And we killed their Roleblocker so they have to kill the Cop, they can't just count on roleblocking the Cop. Making sure we get what info we can before the Cop dies is crucial when we know the Cop is on a clock.

But if HB somehow didn't out himself because the Cop is someone else, then the Cop is fine (or at least not under any specific threat), and can continue playing like normal. There's no specific reason the real Cop would need to out right now. If the Cop wants to do so, sure go ahead, if not, whatever. I'm not sure when the "optimal" time to reveal would be, since I don't have the Cop's info.

[worcej]

It’s also a way for bunny to play without having to read any of the thread

What an insightful remark.

This guy's good.

I had a teacher once tell me that all good mathematicians are greedy, sneaky, and lazy.

Thoughts Damo?

[worcej]

There's absolutely no benefit in a cop that isn't HB outing tonight. If HB isn't the cop then it's his job to eat the bullet to save the cop. We don't *want* uncertainty in that scenario. Period.

No argument here

[aarodactyl]

What an insightful remark.

This guy's good.

I had a teacher once tell me that all good mathematicians are greedy, sneaky, and lazy.

Thoughts Damo?

Eh. It applies to academia. Good actuaries aren’t any of those things.

[BunnyGo]

You're normally a lot more invested in the game than this.
But it must be exhausting spending 50 hours a day putting your children to bed.

I'm trying out some new town/solving techniques (since while I normally post a lot, I don't have as much success as town). So far it's been working. But it's a long game. Stage 1 and 2 have been successfully completed though. I'm working on stage 3 now...that's the longest phase. Stage 4 is the hardest and most crucial.

But I've also been busy with life. And how were you all not glued to the news yesterday? My wife and I used to both work there and couldn't tear ourselves away.

Does each stage have a spreadsheet for them?

Better...a jupyter notebook!

[BunnyGo]

My point is I am unsure a town fake reporting is a good town move.

Don't care. I'm reporting my scans later.

Hmmm... stubborn Bunny is interesting to see.

I'm always stubborn. You just usually agree with me.

[BunnyGo]

Bitcoin is at 40k wtf. WHEN WILL IT BURST? WILL IT BURST?

I remember having the option to buy these when they were new...

You always miss the shots you never take...

I worried about that too...but LOTS of the early buys have been stolen. So...count yourself lucky you didn't.

[BunnyGo]

I had a teacher once tell me that all good mathematicians are greedy, sneaky, and lazy.

Thoughts Damo?

Eh. It applies to academia. Good actuaries aren’t any of those things.

very true. It applies to other industries though.

[BunnyGo]

Ok...chaos starting up at home, and wife is about to go take some "my god, let me out!!!!" time for herself. So...this is the last reliable time I'll be here. In case the scum team picked up what I was putting down, I will Glomar claim cop results now (neither confirming nor denying my claim).

IF I were the cop, I scanned ghug night 1 based on our interactions. I thought I'd been doing a good job avoiding the NK & DK so I didn't feel the need to press him. I didn't realize how close the vote was until the last minute (phone and bedtime) so I switched then to take advantage of the kill.

Night 2 I scanned Eden since he was jumping all around the wrong way. Town.

Night 3....well, I'll let you know...

[worcej]

Don't care. I'm reporting my scans later.

Hmmm... stubborn Bunny is interesting to see.

I'm always stubborn. You just usually agree with me.

It would explain why I don't see it.

[aarodactyl]

Ok...chaos starting up at home, and wife is about to go take some "my god, let me out!!!!" time for herself. So...this is the last reliable time I'll be here. In case the scum team picked up what I was putting down, I will Glomar claim cop results now (neither confirming nor denying my claim).

IF I were the cop, I scanned ghug night 1 based on our interactions. I thought I'd been doing a good job avoiding the NK & DK so I didn't feel the need to press him. I didn't realize how close the vote was until the last minute (phone and bedtime) so I switched then to take advantage of the kill.

Night 2 I scanned Eden since he was jumping all around the wrong way. Town.

Night 3....well, I'll let you know...

Oof. I hope you’re not the cop. Not helpful info.

[President Eden]

EON3:

Do Not Kill:
aarodactyl
Bonatogether
BunnyGo
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
Donny Dude
Hamilton Brian (but only because Cop; if this is wrong somehow, grill him to figure out what he is)

Kill First:
e.m.c^42
Fluminator
rdrivera2005
Hellenic Riot

Kill Next:
bozotheclown
worcej

Hellenic Riot has done too much background appearing-helpful posting and not enough solving. I don't think he should be ahead of my initial called shots but he needs to have his feet put to the fire at least. If shooting the first three on that list doesn't win the game, HR should almost certainly be next. By the way, the kill list is in order of strength of read; I trust Chaqa's read on emc a lot, and I can still believe Durga was town and just fell for ghug's buddying, even if I think it's unlikely, so I'd put emc ahead of Fluminator. rivera has just stopped trying to solve the game right about the time that we started getting good info.

There's enough weirdness around bozo and worcej that I don't want to give them town clears. I still don't understand bozo's theory of the game, and my intuition is screaming at me that he is trying to make a predetermined narrative fit the facts, rather than earnestly hunting. worcej has been fine enough as a player, but I still can't really put it past ghug (and Durga, if that slot flips mafia, which I think it will) not to bus mafia ND at the start. I will say that worcej clamped down hard on ghug for good reasons -- one of the few ghug voters who had truly strong reasoning, I would add -- and did it early and didn't let it go. Honestly if you get to the point where you've killed everyone ahead of worcej and the game hasn't ended, then I've been wrong enough that reevaluating the "Do Not Kill" list is a good call anyway.

It's so obvious that I'm not Cop that I don't think it serves us any good to give a scans list. I'm not getting shot for a while anyway I'm pretty sure, unless I got scanned and the result is outed (at which point any scans list I'd give would be irrelevant).

[celaph]

EoN3 reads. Overall, probably fine killing anyone null down.

HB — I think it’s very likely that mafia shoot this spot if HB is town out of fear that he is cop. Whether or not he actually is cop is just going to be speculation, but I agree with HR that if HB isn’t cop, the real cop should feel no pressure to out.

Obvtown
Jamie — If for some reason Jamie goes into D2 with a plan to hard bus RBer ghug, I don’t think we see the panic and chaos from BB at the end there. He would have known that it was intentional and that least a mafia stood to gain from the kill even if it was a bad idea overall.
aaro — I think aaro’s overall attitude and approach has been very towny. He’s put in a substantial amount of effort (far more than me lol) to give updates on his perspective of things and has solid reasoning for his opinions. He also has comments like when he thought the RBer wouldn’t act N1 that indicate he hasn’t thought through how he would go about RBing. Perhaps he is faking it, but I really don’t think so.
Bona — Bona is scum reading me which is always a good sign. On a more serious note, his play feels like it has progressed naturally from the previous game. He was active and felt happy that we’d caught not just ghug, but also BB. If Bona is scum I don’t see how the scum team fail to bus him over ghug. I also don’t see why ghug brings in BB if he can just bus the goon instead.
PE — I’m a little caught off by how hard PE is pushing to be obvtown, but I think it far more likely comes from a place of town feeling like he has played well and isn’t getting the credit for it than scum. Maybe I’ve just been pocketed, but I don’t think a scum PE defends me like he has been in his recent posts.

Town lean:
Bunny — Bunny has done a lot that I would normally categorize under OMGUS, but I think it actually looks pretty good for him post-ghug flip. The first is that the bunny/ghug interaction D1 does read like scum theater and the second is that bunny “sheeped the inno” onto ghug. I think it’s a weird bus because I’m not giving him much credit for it as it looked so weird. That said, he could have also easily “sheeped the cop” onto bona.
HR — His EoD1 where he shaded both of the counter wagons at the time is pretty towny. I also think that he is spot on when it comes to how we should be treating HB’s vote on BB. That saying shhhhhh and otherwise drawing attention to it indirectly are the wrong way to go about it.
Bozo — I don’t know scum bozo, but this feels to me like a carbon copy of last game’s bozo post D4, and that bozo was town. He has also done things that are weirdly suboptimal for scum like townread emc, PE, and myself for our last minute D1 votes and then continues to defend that town read on emc later. If emc flips scum he will definitely look worse, but my gut says town bozo here.
Worcej — Lukewarm townread for his voting of ghug and how he pushed against my counter arguments. I think it would have been pretty easy and then spun that into a reason to not vote out your RBer. Perhaps it’s just personal preference, but I doesn’t strike me as weird to take just a post or two as contributing to a push on someone.


Null:
Damo — I’m getting slightly better vibes from damo than last game. His reasoning and line of thought feels more coherent and follows through. Maybe if I give his iso more time, then it will progress to a town lean, but I’m hungry and want to move on.
Donny — I’m dropping Donny back to a null read. My gut says that he is town, but I can’t actually find much to justify that conclusion. He has made some good comments, I dislike his push on bozo, he stayed off in a close vote that killed the RB. Overall, null.
Chaqa — I feel like the only reason I know that Chaqa is in the game is because of last time. I worry that we are just going to fear kill him at some point because of last game.
Durga/Flum — It probably merits its own post, but I felt that D1/N1 Durga was town Durga. Flum feels slightly less towny than flum last game, but he is also missing a D1 where last game he named like every scum D1. If people have notable arguments besides their obvious ghug protection, I’d like to hear it.
rdr — He has made a few insightful comments, but very little the since the latter half of D2. Overall want more from him.

Scumlean:
emc — It doesn’t feel like he has contributed to the game in a significant way positive or negative. One of his longest and most notable posts townreads BB. Last second got Maniac killed, stayed off wagon EoD2.

[Jamiet99uk]

President Eden has forgotten about me.

*sob*