MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Alright, time for bed. Maybe I'll wake up and this will have been a bad dream of a day phase...

[Nephthys]

Day 1

bozotheclown(8) Nephthys rdrivera2005 BunnyGo Kitsune, KalelChase brainbomb EspressoPatronum
ND(7) Jamiet99uk Chaqa yuuki foodcoats Foxcastle bozotheclown Vaporwave
Maniac(2) xorxes EMC
EspressoPatronum(1) Maniac
Vaporwave(1) dargorygel
Chaqa(1) ND
KalelChase(1) Temasek22
dargorygel(1) damo666
EMC (1) bozotheclown

Day 2 (before extension)

Maniac(11) damo666 Foxcastle dargorygel Chaqa rdrivera2005 foodcoats Nephthys xorxes BunnyGo Sulit EspressoPatronum
EspressoPatronum(3) Vaporwave KalelChase Maniac
yuuki (2) Temasek22 Jamiet99uk
Vaporwave(1) yuuki

Day 2 (final)

yuuki(7) Temasek22, Jamiet99uk EspressoPatronum Chaqa xorxes Foxcastle rdrivera2005 Maniac
Maniac(5) damo666 dargorygel foodcoats sulit yuuki
EspressoPatronum (2)Vaporwave KalelChase
Temasek22 (1) BunnyGo
KalelChase(1) Nephthys

Day 3 (before Tem claim)

Temasek22 (9) Jamiet99uk BunnyGo damo666 rdrivera2005 dargorygel Vaporwave Chaqa KalelChase Maniac
BunnyGo (4) Nephthys* Kitsune Foxcastle foodcoats
Maniac (1) sulit
Vaporwave (1) EspressoPatronum
Unvote (1) Temasek22

Day 3 (final)

BunnyGo (8) Nephthys* Kitsune Foxcastle foodcoats Temasek22 KalelChase* damo666 dargorygel
Temasek22 (2) Jamiet99uk Maniac
Maniac (2) sulit Chaqa
Vaporwave (1) EspressoPatronum
No‑Lynch (1) rdrivera2005
Nephthys (1) Vaporwave
dargorygel (1) BunnyGo

Looking now, this looks really bad for Maniac, Vapor, and KalEl.

I agree, I would also say its possible Loki!Vapor didnt port anyone yesterday cause he came in so late that it would have been obvious.

[Chaqa]

{snipped}

Looking now, this looks really bad for Maniac, Vapor, and KalEl.

I agree, I would also say its possible Loki!Vapor didnt port anyone yesterday cause he came in so late that it would have been obvious.

Yeah... and despite all of this, Neph, I'm pretty sure you aren't scum, although you are not clear by any means. You're definitely at least for sure NOT the serial killer...

[Chaqa]

Oh, my "Yeah" was an agreement Vapor could likely be Loki.

[RagingIke297]

If EP is the doctor as claimed and was RB would he still register as trying to go somewhere?

##CALL GM

No, doctor goes nowhere if role blocked

[Temasek22]

RIP Bunny, you'll be missed

[Temasek22]

@EP, if you're actually doc, save yourself or me, don't tell anyone

[EspressoPatronum]

@all Really sorry about missing EOD (RIP Bunny). I thought I'd have time to catch up before EOD, but the time stone got in the way. It looks like my vote wouldn't have mattered anyway, but it's still about the principle of it.

I did a quick skim to get current and jotted notes as things jumped out:

192 - some good content from sulit here.

195 - Chaqa's idea to keep the wagon minimal + have everyone else self vote idea was good. What happened to this?

195 - I don't see scum!Neph going to such trouble to lead a mislynch. Town points even though Bunny flipped town.

207 - VERY hedgy vote from Vapor. Reads like he knows Bunny will flip town.

207 - @damo why are you advocating for a Neph lynch regardless of Bunny's flip?

210 - another post by Vapor suggesting he knows the outcome of Bunny's flip before it happens.

212 - I'm not sure I understand the Vision self reveal. Darg didn't seem like a contender for a wagon yesterday. Why reveal now instead of revealing someone else and claiming if the wagon builds up?

213 - Neph, who did you think was Vision + why did you think that?

On the reread alone, I have:
town pings from Chaqa, Sulit, Neph (pending information about who he thought was Vision)
scum pings: vapor, damo


Note - I appreciate the advice on doc targets, but I won't be discussing my intended target tonight.

[Nephthys]

I thought vision was vapor.

I can easily see him scanning xorx to give him someone to sheep.

Maniac's post about 423 then coming in was direct reference to one of Vapors posts that could have been reality stoned. Coming off this it was entirely possible that Vapor had a stone, as verified by the GMs. With yuuki outed he was either Thanos or Vision.

I would assume that he would have been visited by the item thief. The reason they didn't kill him was that he was a likely ML. With no stone stolen I assumed they didn't visit him.

This made it 50/50 that Bunny was the item thief.

Given the fallout that it would have been should Bunny have been the IT, I stand by what I did.

[damo666]

Neph had you posted that before bunny would still be alive. Not convincing.

[Jamiet99uk]

RIP Bunny

Neph is obvscum, lynch him tomorrow please.

Maniac could also be scum, sulit's case was ok.

@Dargorygel, why did you do that? Pretty wasteful.

[damo666]

<Radio broadcast through the wormhole>

Hello Kitsune,

I just got the bad news that you'll be stuck away for another 12 hours. You can blame Dr. Strange for that. He decided to save Maniac at the last minute. There's a chance Maniac is Gomorra, sooooooo maybe it's worth it to have you gone a bit longer.

Lot's has happened. Tony lost his mind again and shot a foul mouthed talking raccoon that makes stuff. I KNOW! It's like he flinches at the littlest thing.

Anyways, I have to cut this short. Hawkeye's kids are calling. Back after their bedtime.

-Bunny

<End Transmission>

Good guess here from bunny that he was Hawkeye

[damo666]

Marvellous. EOD/N 0300 UK time unless Timestone used again

[foodcoats]

Damn... sorry Bunny. GG.

[Foxcastle]

Sigh. That sucks.

I don't think it indicates Neph is scum, though.

Maniac and Kitsune are scum, I think. Sulit, too, probably.

[Chaqa]

Maniac was browsing the thread here and there after EoN, he’s lurking because he’s caught and I am not voting for anyone else next phase.

[damo666]

Sigh. That sucks.

I don't think it indicates Neph is scum, though.

Maniac and Kitsune are scum, I think. Sulit, too, probably.

I don't think Neph is scum either despite what I was saying.

[Kitsune]

Okay, cleared my head some.

Since food’s heuristics have been helpful but have let me down on D3 (not that anyone else is doing much better with the benefits of “meta”), I’m going to do some defensive voting analysis and I’m going to make some gut reads based on instinct. I always hated when my teachers said “show working” in school, and sometimes find that when I overthink things I find myself going down the wrong rabbit hole.

“Defensive voting analysis” is based on the idea that on some level the mafia are picking their targets based on people who suspect them. I’ll take a leaf from Kalel’s analytics and assign a point each time certain names come up per night.

Level 1 – Certain Mafia Kills (nk)

Gamora is still alive (wherever she is) so we know all night kills to date are down to the Mafia.

D1 EMC: Maniac (1)
D1 Xorxes: Vaporwave (1), EspressoPatronum (1), Maniac (2)
D2 Xorxes: Maniac (3) Yuuki (1)

Lvl 1 Totals:
Maniac: 3
Vaporwave: 1
EspressoPatronum: 1
Yuuki: 1

Level 2 – Possible Mafia-Influenced Kills (lynches)

Lynches may have been influenced by the Mafia (at least we know 4 of them and 1 SK are voting, whatever their vote ended up being) but was probably weighted at least as much by our own investigations.

D1 Bozo: Vaporwave (1), EMC (1), ND/Sulit (1)
D1 Yuuki: Chaqa (1), ND/Sulit (2)
D1 Bunny: ND/Sulit (3), BunnyGo? (0), Bozo (1)
D2 Yuuki: Vaporwave (2), Maniac (1)
D2 Bunny: ND/Sulit (4), Kitsune (1), Xorxes (1), Nephthys (1), EspressoPatronum (1), Rdrivera (1), Kalel (1), Maniac (2), Yuuki (1), Temasek (1)
D3: Bunny: ND/Sulit (5), Nephthys (2), Vaporwave (3), Temasek (2), Maniac (3), Dargo (1)

Lvl 2 Totals:
ND/Sulit: 5
Vaporwave: 3
Maniac: 3
Temasek: 2
Nephthys: 2
Dargo: 1
Yuuki: 1
Kalel: 1
Rdrivera: 1
EspressoPatronum: 1
Xorxes: 1
Kitsune: 1
Bozo: 1
EMC: 1
Chaqa: 1

Conclusions: I don’t feel Lvl 2 is especially useful, there’s too much clutter although the top 3 (ND/Sulit, Vaporwave and Maniac) may be worth investigating. Lvl 1 is useful as confirmed scum kills, and seems to point to Maniac as well.

[Kitsune]

It's late and I'm tired.

I'll be on my phone a bit from bed if there's anything anyone is around and wants to ask, gut reads will come in the morning.

[KalelChase]

##GM NOTE

Yellow lights shown around Dargy

He is revealed to be VISION, a vanilla town

Dargo, dude... why do you do shit like this every game. You know they're just going to steal your stone now, right?

It's no big deal. I'll give it to someone. Send suggestions.
Because I give it away, they won't kill me... And we'll have a clear. That wasy purpose with xorxes. Town can use clears. No one else was I sure of. But me.
So I self read. Last time I didn't use it on myself and damo shot me. So I cleared me and will pass it now.

Since it's slightly easier to find a Town & Townlean than Scum (inherently due to the ratio)... would it be a valid strategy for all Town to vote NoLynch every day to reduce our mortality rate in half, and then just pass the mindstone around. If you get it you reveal yourself and hand it to someone you really trust. It's a risk, but it would give us a bit more information, and the day it gets handed to scum it'll either be not used, or used on someone who can claim they didn't use it on themselves (and at that point would be Town so trust-able). Regardless whoever passed it to them (the last townie revealed can lead the next lynch). Biggest risk is it winds up with SK.