M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Balki Bartokomous]

^ I am finally getting around to answering Bozo's survey. Answer in progress.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am just about ready to town clear Jamiet based on on this exchange with sulit. Can smart people look at this and tell me if they agree? It is on pages 28 and 29.

Sulit engaged with very few people. He obviously knew he was mafia, and he found it amusing that someone gave him a town read so early, knowing that he had done nothing, and knowing that the read was wrong. So he called Jamiet out and asked for reasons.

This is subtle shade throwing. Sulit knew the read was wrong. He wanted Jamiet to elaborate on it. He wanted Jamiet essentially, to incriminate himself for explaining his [wrong] snap read.

I really don't think Sulit has that exchange with his scum partner.

Am I reading too much into this? Tell me why.

TOWN LIST
Jamiet

I can 100% confirm that Jamiet is town.

[damo666]

I think it most unlikely that both nonPZ scum were bussing Bob therefore either you or Bob MUST be scum.

If the scum team is, say, Xorxes, Flum and Balki well played them because we are sunk.

Most unlikely that both scum bussed bob does not mean that I or (you meant Jamie, I assume) MUST be scum. Just because something isn't likely, doesn't mean it's impossible.

And why do you think it's so unlikely that both nonPZ scum bussed bob anyway? Will you consider this post I made and tell me if you disagree with me?

OK 'MUST' is ott. It is possible for 2 (non PZ) bussers on Bob but unlikey imo. Flum/Balki possible I suppose or one of them with Bunny.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Ok, just reread the ISOs on Temasek and Worcej. Some conclusions (no ballads...those sucked, and Damo wouldn't read them anyways. Also, Worcej's is waaaaay too long).


Temasek is still scummy. I don't care what he flipped, the GM made a mistake in the flip. Mostly jokes. Votes EMC for 2 posts, then unvotes. Then backs his reads 0 with no explanation, then just talks to andy and about andy, then votes nolynch and claims "all a joke!"

I don't believe he was planning to play scummy. It just looks scummy. The only thing that makes me believe it at all is the reference to ItsHosuke M48. But otherwise, it just seems bad.

I was wrong about Worcej. All the short posts in bursts with lots of jokes made it hard for me to appreciate the content while reading through on phone while busy. But there's a lot of content. It's subtle, and it's hidden in a LOT of bad jokes. But mixed with the humor, he presses questions, makes reads (I disagree with some, but agree with others, but they all seem honest), and generally is trying to create action. While I also think he's good enough as scum to play the EOD like he did, I now think he's town.

I also believe his read on Tem. It was one of the reads I disagreed with, but I believe that he believes it. His explanation is coherent. I still think he's wrong, Tem is scum. But somehow Worcej got the GM to make a mistake on the flip.

Okay, feeling pretty sure Bunny is town. This post has aged well. It's particularly good because at this time, Night 1, worcej had the feel of a high likelihood Day 2 mislynch.

Town List
Jamiet
BunnyGo

[damo666]

Still doing my reread. Notes to come later. In the meantime I haven’t seen anything that convinces me we shouldn’t no-lynch.

Hey Damo, did you think and research your answers there or just pull it out of your a$$? Why are you voting Jamie?

Yes.

However since posting the above I've had a realisation about one of your posts which puts you 4th behind X

Would you care to share with the rest of the class?

Bunny crumbed watcher. More likely to attract NK than scum mucking about I guess.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Damo, please talk to me about my town read of Jamiet based on Sulit's post on Day 1. What do you think about that?

[damo666]

Bozo Town
Xorxes Town or maybe PZ
Bunny prob town
Balki I just don't know
Flum likely scum

kgray and Jamie I both kinda town read but the probability they are both town is so low.

I'll post again after further analysis.

This is hard.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bozo Town
Xorxes Town or maybe PZ
Bunny prob town
Balki I just don't know
Flum likely scum

kgray and Jamie I both kinda town read but the probability they are both town is so low.

I'll post again after further analysis.

This is hard.

Why did you naked vote me?
Why are you naked voting Flum?

[damo666]

Bozo Town
Xorxes Town or maybe PZ
Bunny prob town
Balki I just don't know
Flum likely scum

kgray and Jamie I both kinda town read but the probability they are both town is so low.

I'll post again after further analysis.

This is hard.

Why did you naked vote me?
Why are you naked voting Flum?

Mainly for effect

[Fluminator]

Here is my list:

Xorxes, BunnyGo, kgray, sulit.

Jamie, why am I on your list?

Damn it. I think Jamiet is town.

I can see motive in asking town or scumbuddy that. pretty NAI to me

[Fluminator]

actually, maybe not. No reason to draw unnecessary attention to it.

But maybe she knew it might look bad in the future if she didn't call it out early.
Eh I'll stick with NAI. Jamiet is full of town and scum tells mixed together. It's weird.

[kgray]

Bunny crumbed watcher. More likely to attract NK than scum mucking about I guess.

Yeah, I think I noticed that too. Especially all those "I see you Fox" posts.

When Fox claimed watcher, but before he was the NK, I thought it was possible that he was scum who was hoping that the real watcher would call him out, so that the scumteam would figure out who it was. So I think it's possible that scum could have crumbed watcher too, so they could do that in case they were ever close to being lynched. Bunny could have been doing this, but he wasn't ever close to being lynched. And also, the "I see you Fox" wasn't subtle. Surely the mafia team would have noticed it, and they had N3 and N4 to kill Bunny if he isn't mafia....

But who knows. I also see your point about him possibly trying to attract a NK. I don't think Bunny crumbing watcher is alignment indicative.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Shouldn't Xorxes solve the game today?

[damo666]

@Damo, please talk to me about my town read of Jamiet based on Sulit's post on Day 1. What do you think about that?

Sulit's response could as easily been to a teammate as to a towny.

However would a nonPZscumJamie list a fellow scum as #4? I think more likely 3rd or not all. More likely to put PZ in the 4 imo.

So, if we townassume J (regardless of Sulit) and we assume you are town (for the purpose of this discussion) then something like kgray/Flum with X as PZ works.

[damo666]

Shouldn't Xorxes solve the game today?

But as PZ he won't share.

[kgray]

Shouldn't Xorxes solve the game today?

Ya know, I was just reading your ISO and I found this in your EON 2 reads list:

“xorxes - I'd wait a day, and if he is not NKed tonight or tomorrow, serious scrutiny. Hasn't done much solving in my view. But...in his defense, nobody is playing so it's hard."

Did you ever put any serious scrutiny into xorxes? Do you think he started doing much solving?

[Jamiet99uk]

Bozo Town
Xorxes Town or maybe PZ
Bunny prob town
Balki I just don't know
Flum likely scum

kgray and Jamie I both kinda town read but the probability they are both town is so low.

I'll post again after further analysis.

This is hard.

Why did you naked vote me?
Why are you naked voting Flum?

Mainly for effect

Well the effect is you appear scummy.

If it was some twattish reaction test, what did you learn from it, other than that people think you're a twat?

[Fluminator]

I would count this explicit defending of sulit as towny if it came from someone other than Flum.

Why do you say this?

Because Flum has been playing a very double and triple bluff game.

I don't think that's what I've been playing. I've been playing very straight up, maybe overly so.

Saying I have faked town tells is just me not wanting to be scumread, as simple as that. And then revealing I faked a specific towntell was to see how Jamiet would react because he's one of my biggest ? right now.

Also, it's really not hard for anyone to fake stuff like that if you are scum, and then rule it off as wifom. I'd argue I'm still more likely town because I still voted to lynch him after defending him like that.

[Fluminator]

Xorx does seem more bored this game than in previous games he was town.

[kgray]

Re: Jamie and sulit, Jamie did an ISO of sulit/bob here and brought up sulit's reaction to one of my posts:

"- On p.27, Sulit called out a post by kgray, which discussed Balki and Vecna arguing about the word "coast" from back on page 5, with an "ewwwww" response and "NAGL for kgray". (I have read the post again, and I encourage others to, and I cannot for the life of me understand why Sulit had such a negative reaction to it)."

I also do not know why sulit reacted that way, but knowing sulit was scum I am using this point by Jamie to tentatively rule out nonPZ-Jamie and Balki as scum partners. I don't know if sulit's reaction is enough to give scum points to Balki, but I don't see scum-Jamie bringing attention to it if Balki is his scum partner.