MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Not sure this all helps at all, the rules may not be re-triggered this way, but worth a shot.

[BunnyGo]

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

Have you remembered to put in your order?

Have you remembered yours?

I’ve remembered to NOT submit mine. I’ll wait until tonight.

[xorxes]

Reavers:

dargo: Could only have been recruited N1. Protected N2 and N3. Evidence suggests nobody was successfully recruited N1.

damo: Got a correct read on ND, which suggests he was not a Reaver D2. Also N1 probably there was no recruiting. Protected N2. Could only have been recruited N3, but he was a potential target for protection, so risky to try to recruit him.

Bunny: He has the ability to prove he was not Reavered, so a bad choice as he would be easily outed. Also, he confirmed that he still has a commute available, which he need not have don if he was a Reaver.

Jamiet: Unlikely choice because of the replacement Doctor. Reavering potentially activates the backup (this was neither confirmed nor denied by GM), which could have been a concern for Temasek, as it would have reduced the pool where he was hiding.

peterlund: His ability is something of a deterrent, because if in doubt we might just lynch him and at least get a second shot if we were wrong.

teacon: The obvious candidate. Never protected except N1 (but Temasek did not know that). Probably the best choice for N2 as he was unlikely to be protected or watched, and we would not be trying to lynch him as he had no counterclaims.

Chaqa/Fox/emc: Whichever of them is scum cannot be a Reaver. Assassin was not reavered (unless Jamiet lied about protecting ND) and BH was not reavered because bounty was announced after N3. If I understood correctly no bounty would be announced in case BH was reavered. The two townies could have been reavered, although it would have been something of an odd choice.

So it seems to me teacon has to be one of them. And I'm not too sure about the second one.

[BunnyGo]

Reavers:

dargo: Could only have been recruited N1. Protected N2 and N3. Evidence suggests nobody was successfully recruited N1.

damo: Got a correct read on ND, which suggests he was not a Reaver D2. Also N1 probably there was no recruiting. Protected N2. Could only have been recruited N3, but he was a potential target for protection, so risky to try to recruit him.

Bunny: He has the ability to prove he was not Reavered, so a bad choice as he would be easily outed. Also, he confirmed that he still has a commute available, which he need not have don if he was a Reaver.

Jamiet: Unlikely choice because of the replacement Doctor. Reavering potentially activates the backup (this was neither confirmed nor denied by GM), which could have been a concern for Temasek, as it would have reduced the pool where he was hiding.

peterlund: His ability is something of a deterrent, because if in doubt we might just lynch him and at least get a second shot if we were wrong.

teacon: The obvious candidate. Never protected except N1 (but Temasek did not know that). Probably the best choice for N2 as he was unlikely to be protected or watched, and we would not be trying to lynch him as he had no counterclaims.

Chaqa/Fox/emc: Whichever of them is scum cannot be a Reaver. Assassin was not reavered (unless Jamiet lied about protecting ND) and BH was not reavered because bounty was announced after N3. If I understood correctly no bounty would be announced in case BH was reavered. The two townies could have been reavered, although it would have been something of an odd choice.

So it seems to me teacon has to be one of them. And I'm not too sure about the second one.

Easy enough for a scan to resolve things tomorrow.

[xorxes]

I'm aware this isn't foolproof or surefire, but compiling it all. I'm only counting if it's EXACTLY the same, including the quote of Jamie on the first post.

List of people who have copied Temasek's posts:
Jamiet quote post: Bunny, teacon, EMC, Fox
(those who did the Jamie quote post w/o the quote): dargo, damo

Goddammit damo: damo, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, Bunny, peter, EMC, Fox

I am NOT rP: damo, Bunny, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, peter, EMC, Fox

(listing myself because I'm about to do the one I missed).
So, people who accomplished the repost: Bunny, teacon, EMC, Fox, Chaqa

Need to do the Jamiet quote post properly: dargo, damo, peter

People who have to do all of them: Jamiet, goldfinger
(not asking xorxes since we know he isn't a Reaver)

@Jamiet, any reason you are not participating in this?

[xorxes]

Not sure this all helps at all, the rules may not be re-triggered this way, but worth a shot.

Why did Kit talk twice about a pattern?

First level Reaver press violation.

##CALL GM Is there any actual penalties? Or just this warning?

This warning is a note to town that there has been a violation (or, a break in the required pattern).

Other penalties for second level violation or similar are part of the closed elements of this semi-open setup.

Why would GM let us know of three reavers? Wouldn't we just be told when they actually start killing by telling us of a death?

GM Clarification:

This was a Level 1 Reaver Press Rules Violation.

This is to indicate that a violation has occurred in the existing pattern, but not who is responsible for it.

A Level 2 Rules Violation, if incurred, will reveal a player as a Reaver.

What does it mean? What is the existing pattern?

[xorxes]

Adding to Jamiet:

Reavers:

dargo: Could only have been recruited N1. Protected N2 and N3. Evidence suggests nobody was successfully recruited N1.

damo: Got a correct read on ND, which suggests he was not a Reaver D2. Also N1 probably there was no recruiting. Protected N2. Could only have been recruited N3, but he was a potential target for protection, so risky to try to recruit him.

Bunny: He has the ability to prove he was not Reavered, so a bad choice as he would be easily outed. Also, he confirmed that he still has a commute available, which he need not have don if he was a Reaver.

Jamiet: Unlikely choice because of the replacement Doctor. Reavering potentially activates the backup (this was neither confirmed nor denied by GM), which could have been a concern for Temasek, as it would have reduced the pool where he was hiding. He successfully used his power N2, so he could only have been reavered N3 (as the Doctor acts after attacks).

peterlund: His ability is something of a deterrent, because if in doubt we might just lynch him and at least get a second shot if we were wrong.

teacon: The obvious candidate. Never protected except N1 (but Temasek did not know that). Probably the best choice for N2 as he was unlikely to be protected or watched, and we would not be trying to lynch him as he had no counterclaims.

Chaqa/Fox/emc: Whichever of them is scum cannot be a Reaver. Assassin was not reavered (unless Jamiet lied about protecting ND) and BH was not reavered because bounty was announced after N3. If I understood correctly no bounty would be announced in case BH was reavered. The two townies could have been reavered, although it would have been something of an odd choice.

So it seems to me teacon has to be one of them. And I'm not too sure about the second one.

[damo666]

:tumbleweed:

I don't get this. Care to explain?

[damo666]

Have you remembered to put in your order?

Have you remembered yours?

I’ve remembered to NOT submit mine. I’ll wait until tonight.

Doh!

[Chaqa]

So, we need to make 4 or 5 lynches in order to win this. We're pretty likely to face two deaths tonight, unless by some miracle Bunny both is still the Pilot and also has a commute, unless Jamiet is able to stop the Reaver NK (assuming he's still himself).

Let's assume worst case, for whatever reason, we have two deaths tonight, for all scenarios. I also assume in these that damo will narrow the Assassin down to either one or two people (for me, after his scan, I'll know for sure either way, unless he scans me).

I'll be going over the four reasonable paths we can take:

Pre-Scenario: 7-1-3-1

Scenario 1: Lynch goldfinger
N5: 7-1-3-0 (no more BH) - receive scan on EMC from damo
D6: 5-1-3-0 (two town losses) - D6 we lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-3-0 (no more Alliance!) - maybe receive scan from damo
D7: 4-0-3-0 - next day we lynch Tem
N7: 4-0-2-0 - one Reaver down. Reaver 2 doesn't know Reaver 3
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Possible victory, but requires us to have good lynches on Days 6 and 8.

Scenario 2: Lynch Temasek
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 3a: Lynch peter and he's Mudtown
N5: 6-1-3-0 - peter shoots goldie on his way out
D6: 4-1-3-0 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-3-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

Scenario 3b: Lynch peter and he's Reaver
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 4: No-Lynch
N5: 7-1-3-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-3-1 - lynch EMC or Fox. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
N6: 5-0-3-1 - lose another town
D6: 4-0-3-1 - lynch goldie
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-0-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

[Chaqa]

Not sure this all helps at all, the rules may not be re-triggered this way, but worth a shot.

Why did Kit talk twice about a pattern?

##CALL GM Is there any actual penalties? Or just this warning?

This warning is a note to town that there has been a violation (or, a break in the required pattern).

Other penalties for second level violation or similar are part of the closed elements of this semi-open setup.

Why would GM let us know of three reavers? Wouldn't we just be told when they actually start killing by telling us of a death?

GM Clarification:

This was a Level 1 Reaver Press Rules Violation.

This is to indicate that a violation has occurred in the existing pattern, but not who is responsible for it.

A Level 2 Rules Violation, if incurred, will reveal a player as a Reaver.

What does it mean? What is the existing pattern?

I've spent a LOT of time trying to figure it out and haven't yet. I'll continue digging, though, which is why I don't want to hammer this phase.

[xorxes]

This is interesting. A search for the word "pattern*" gives this:

I think I read somewhere that they don't lose access, and the rest of the team are unaware. That could saw some paranoia in the ranks

I'd love it if they caught a reaver through patterns in press, but couldn't tell anyone because the damning evidence was in the QT.

Fwiw @Kalel we'd all benefit if you could give us some insights as to the quality of press in the QT. Is anyone using strange characters or non English words? Unless you want to post a sanitized version of QT press, maybe give us some observations. Is anyone in the QT acting weird? What else should we look for in press? You especially should look at of 27-32 and comment. Thanks.

Won't re-post the QT (or give up names), but actually yes, some very weird posts, from smart/usually belligerent players. The loud ones in QT are the quiet ones here and visa versa.

Yeahhh I didn't think you were gonna paste the QT. Worth a try though. No, I'm not going to scumhunt based on belligerence/intelligence here.

My thought here is that we should collaborate to try to identify posting patterns... there's gotta be a way to compare notes or something? The reaver press rules seem like they're designed to be a liability we could exploit. Example: are you noticing any consistent themes in weirdness between the QT and pg 27-32 and the QT? Are you willing to post an analysis?

@bunny - that's actually a decent idea. Worth testing, at least. It'd be easy enough for the GM to enforce, and restrictive enough to allow for finding them. Sorry for the doyle-ist analysis, but that'd gotta be a factor in figuring out posting patterns.

not much later: ...okay that was a bit spammy.

Well, you matched the page number counting pregame posts or not. Thanks again for being a sport about this.

Does meeting the page count matter, or not-exceeding it? How many posts did he have when the rule vio happened?

...How would posts in a reaver-compromised maf QT affect reaver postcount rules? Maybe this is not the way. The bot doesn't count posts in the QT.

Chaqa keeps talking about his board game night. Has anyone played Firefly the Board Game? http://bit.ly/O37BIzLt

Jamie, on the other hand, will be in his bunk. (I got your joke) http://bit.ly/2tOz2vD

@everyone looking back at Tem's press habits - do you think it has anything to do with voting patterns? Or maybe whether you use capitalization in when voting? There's a bit of a spectrum for whether it's "Vote" or "VOTE" or "vote"

teacon is the only one, besides myself who has been talking about patterns.

[Chaqa]

Based on my analysis above, we need to either lynch goldie or Temasek today.

[Chaqa]

These scenarios all GREATLY improve if Bunny still has a commute, or Jamie can make a doc-save at some point.

[damo666]

So, we need to make 4 or 5 lynches in order to win this. We're pretty likely to face two deaths tonight, unless by some miracle Bunny both is still the Pilot and also has a commute, unless Jamiet is able to stop the Reaver NK (assuming he's still himself).

Let's assume worst case, for whatever reason, we have two deaths tonight, for all scenarios. I also assume in these that damo will narrow the Assassin down to either one or two people (for me, after his scan, I'll know for sure either way, unless he scans me).

I'll be going over the four reasonable paths we can take:

Pre-Scenario: 7-1-3-1

Scenario 1: Lynch goldfinger
N5: 7-1-3-0 (no more BH) - receive scan on EMC from damo
D6: 5-1-3-0 (two town losses) - D6 we lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-3-0 (no more Alliance!) - maybe receive scan from damo
D7: 4-0-3-0 - next day we lynch Tem
N7: 4-0-2-0 - one Reaver down. Reaver 2 doesn't know Reaver 3
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Possible victory, but requires us to have good lynches on Days 6 and 8.

Scenario 2: Lynch Temasek
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 3a: Lynch peter and he's Mudtown
N5: 6-1-3-0 - peter shoots goldie on his way out
D6: 4-1-3-0 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-3-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

Scenario 3b: Lynch peter and he's Reaver
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 4: No-Lynch
N5: 7-1-3-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-3-1 - lynch EMC or Fox. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
N6: 5-0-3-1 - lose another town
D6: 4-0-3-1 - lynch goldie
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-0-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

So Goldie the best lynch eh?

[xorxes]

This is interesting. A search for the word "pattern*" gives this:

I think I read somewhere that they don't lose access, and the rest of the team are unaware. That could saw some paranoia in the ranks

I'd love it if they caught a reaver through patterns in press, but couldn't tell anyone because the damning evidence was in the QT.

Won't re-post the QT (or give up names), but actually yes, some very weird posts, from smart/usually belligerent players. The loud ones in QT are the quiet ones here and visa versa.

Yeahhh I didn't think you were gonna paste the QT. Worth a try though. No, I'm not going to scumhunt based on belligerence/intelligence here.

My thought here is that we should collaborate to try to identify posting patterns... there's gotta be a way to compare notes or something? The reaver press rules seem like they're designed to be a liability we could exploit. Example: are you noticing any consistent themes in weirdness between the QT and pg 27-32 and the QT? Are you willing to post an analysis?

@bunny - that's actually a decent idea. Worth testing, at least. It'd be easy enough for the GM to enforce, and restrictive enough to allow for finding them. Sorry for the doyle-ist analysis, but that'd gotta be a factor in figuring out posting patterns.

not much later: ...okay that was a bit spammy.

Well, you matched the page number counting pregame posts or not. Thanks again for being a sport about this.

Does meeting the page count matter, or not-exceeding it? How many posts did he have when the rule vio happened?

...How would posts in a reaver-compromised maf QT affect reaver postcount rules? Maybe this is not the way. The bot doesn't count posts in the QT.

Chaqa keeps talking about his board game night. Has anyone played Firefly the Board Game? http://bit.ly/O37BIzLt

Jamie, on the other hand, will be in his bunk. (I got your joke) http://bit.ly/2tOz2vD

@everyone looking back at Tem's press habits - do you think it has anything to do with voting patterns? Or maybe whether you use capitalization in when voting? There's a bit of a spectrum for whether it's "Vote" or "VOTE" or "vote"

teacon is the only one, besides myself who has been talking about patterns.

The first use however is from D2, when he could not have been a Reaver yet, so maybe this doesn't mean anything.

[goldfinger0303]

@Chaqa I'm not doing the tests because I'm not Reaver.

@xorxes - my opinion is one of two options.

Options 1) Reaver tried to recruit rdrivera N1, but rdrivera was dead before they got there. N2 is most likely a teacon target. N3 would be damo/Bunny

Option 2) Bunny successfully piloted Reaver target on N2, and they got who they wanted N1 (which would probably be Peter in this case).

I'll look over all of our PR action history again after work, but if most of them are mechanically clear, then that means a reaver is among the VT pool....which is all the more reason to lynch there.

If I had an assassin target I'd probably lean emc.

[Chaqa]

So, we need to make 4 or 5 lynches in order to win this. We're pretty likely to face two deaths tonight, unless by some miracle Bunny both is still the Pilot and also has a commute, unless Jamiet is able to stop the Reaver NK (assuming he's still himself).

Let's assume worst case, for whatever reason, we have two deaths tonight, for all scenarios. I also assume in these that damo will narrow the Assassin down to either one or two people (for me, after his scan, I'll know for sure either way, unless he scans me).

I'll be going over the four reasonable paths we can take:

Pre-Scenario: 7-1-3-1

Scenario 1: Lynch goldfinger
N5: 7-1-3-0 (no more BH) - receive scan on EMC from damo
D6: 5-1-3-0 (two town losses) - D6 we lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-3-0 (no more Alliance!) - maybe receive scan from damo
D7: 4-0-3-0 - next day we lynch Tem
N7: 4-0-2-0 - one Reaver down. Reaver 2 doesn't know Reaver 3
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Possible victory, but requires us to have good lynches on Days 6 and 8.

Scenario 2: Lynch Temasek
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 3a: Lynch peter and he's Mudtown
N5: 6-1-3-0 - peter shoots goldie on his way out
D6: 4-1-3-0 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-3-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

Scenario 3b: Lynch peter and he's Reaver
N5: 7-1-2-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-2-1 - lynch EMC or Fox
N6: 5-0-2-1 - lose another town. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
D7: 4-0-2-1 - lynch goldie?
N7: 4-0-2-0 - lose a town
D8: 3-0-2-0 - LYLO

Scenario 4: No-Lynch
N5: 7-1-3-1 - receive scan on EMC from damo; Tem+goldie alive
D6: 5-1-3-1 - lynch EMC or Fox. Hope goldie hasn't won yet
N6: 5-0-3-1 - lose another town
D6: 4-0-3-1 - lynch goldie
N6: 4-0-3-0 - lose a town
D7: 3-0-0-0 - unless xorxes alive, town loss

So Goldie the best lynch eh?

Well, the high-roll is to lynch Temasek and hope Reaver 2 isn't as keyed in as Reaver 1, but... it seems, maybe.

[Chaqa]

@Chaqa I'm not doing the tests because I'm not Reaver.

@xorxes - my opinion is one of two options.

Options 1) Reaver tried to recruit rdrivera N1, but rdrivera was dead before they got there. N2 is most likely a teacon target. N3 would be damo/Bunny

Option 2) Bunny successfully piloted Reaver target on N2, and they got who they wanted N1 (which would probably be Peter in this case).

I'll look over all of our PR action history again after work, but if most of them are mechanically clear, then that means a reaver is among the VT pool....which is all the more reason to lynch there.

If I had an assassin target I'd probably lean emc.

There's no harm in you doing them. If you don't, I'm definitely voting for you.

[dargorygel]

:tumbleweed:

I don't get this. Care to explain?