MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

I'm vaguely offended you would think I'd be so pathetic as scum :>

this type of gelatinous waffle only shines as town, stomp me down the drain babe

Sorry pal, I just don't get the warm fuzzies this game.

[Chaqa]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

Hold on. Why are you voting Fox then?

I was voting for him before I realized why EMC had to be Assassin, and haven't moved my vote yet.

I'm currently trying to run through the options and see if we want to lynch Tem, no-lynch, or actually lynch goldie today.

[damo666]

But damo, from the perspective of everyone that's not you and Bunny, the chance that either of you are reavered is 60%. Therefore, statistically, relying on a plan that hinges on both of you is less likely to lead to a town win than lynching in the scum pool.

Everyone else should be doing some....idk, actual analysis, on who the assassin is. Other than blindly relying on the fact that damo is good. There hasn't been enough work on actually reading people this game. It's just been all mechanics, and scum have been skating by on that this whole time.

From non Bunny no me no Xorxes town POV there are 8 possible reaver recruits (not Tem/Xorxes/you/themselves). There are 28 such pairs. 15 of these have neither me nor bunny. So chance me or bunny reaver is 13/28 or < 47%

[damo666]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

Hold on. Why are you voting Fox then?

I was voting for him before I realized why EMC had to be Assassin, and haven't moved my vote yet.

I'm currently trying to run through the options and see if we want to lynch Tem, no-lynch, or actually lynch goldie today.

If EMC is Assassin surely he is the lynch.

And how in the world is no lynch preferable to Goldie?

I'm getting worried about you Chaqa.

[damo666]

Anyway I'm reading Einstein.

Just vote Goldie.

##end

[Chaqa]

Hold on. Why are you voting Fox then?

I was voting for him before I realized why EMC had to be Assassin, and haven't moved my vote yet.

I'm currently trying to run through the options and see if we want to lynch Tem, no-lynch, or actually lynch goldie today.

If EMC is Assassin surely he is the lynch.

And how in the world is no lynch preferable to Goldie?

I'm getting worried about you Chaqa.

Even if I think EMC is Assassin, I won't be able to convince the rest, and there's no point in taking that risk when you can prove me right or wrong with your scan today.

No-lynch could be preferable because scum will have to kill Goldie. Why does eevryone think he's on scum's side?

[e.m.c^42]

Anyway I'm reading Einstein.

Just vote Goldie.

##end

Good. Then we can either lynch Fox or Chaqbb :D

##vote goldf

[Chaqa]

Anyway I'm reading Einstein.

Just vote Goldie.

##end

There's no world in which I vote end unless I've figured out the Reaver rules.

[e.m.c^42]

I was voting for him before I realized why EMC had to be Assassin, and haven't moved my vote yet. :shrug:

I'm currently trying to run through the options and see if we want to lynch Tem, no-lynch, or actually lynch goldie today.

If EMC is Assassin surely he is the lynch.

And how in the world is no lynch preferable to Goldie?

I'm getting worried about you Chaqa.

Even if I think EMC is Assassin, I won't be able to convince the rest, and there's no point in taking that risk when you can prove me right or wrong with your scan today.

No-lynch could be preferable because scum will have to kill Goldie. Why does eevryone think he's on scum's side?

Well, the longer he stays alive, the more likely it is we'll get into a point where we have to lynch scum and can't afford to lynch him - in which he's basically set to win right?

[e.m.c^42]

Anyway I'm reading Einstein.

Just vote Goldie.

##end

There's no world in which I vote end unless I've figured out the Reaver rules.

We've had no violation posts from GM at night, correct? hmm

[goldfinger0303]

But damo, from the perspective of everyone that's not you and Bunny, the chance that either of you are reavered is 60%. Therefore, statistically, relying on a plan that hinges on both of you is less likely to lead to a town win than lynching in the scum pool.

Everyone else should be doing some....idk, actual analysis, on who the assassin is. Other than blindly relying on the fact that damo is good. There hasn't been enough work on actually reading people this game. It's just been all mechanics, and scum have been skating by on that this whole time.

From non Bunny no me no Xorxes town POV there are 8 possible reaver recruits (not Tem/Xorxes/you/themselves). There are 28 such pairs. 15 of these have neither me nor bunny. So chance me or bunny reaver is 13/28 or < 47%

I'm excluding Chaqa/emc/Fox, as I doubt the Reaver would recruit there.

@everyone else - the path damo is advocating puts the game 100% in their hands. If they're reavered, we lose. It is absolutely unnecessary to take on that level of risk. Again, lynching me is a scum move. Force the scum to NK me.

[Chaqa]

Another hour burnt trying to figure out the Reaver rules... this is frustrating.

[xorxes]

But damo, from the perspective of everyone that's not you and Bunny, the chance that either of you are reavered is 60%. Therefore, statistically, relying on a plan that hinges on both of you is less likely to lead to a town win than lynching in the scum pool.

Everyone else should be doing some....idk, actual analysis, on who the assassin is. Other than blindly relying on the fact that damo is good. There hasn't been enough work on actually reading people this game. It's just been all mechanics, and scum have been skating by on that this whole time.

From non Bunny no me no Xorxes town POV there are 8 possible reaver recruits (not Tem/Xorxes/you/themselves). There are 28 such pairs. 15 of these have neither me nor bunny. So chance me or bunny reaver is 13/28 or < 47%

I'm excluding Chaqa/emc/Fox, as I doubt the Reaver would recruit there.

@everyone else - the path damo is advocating puts the game 100% in their hands. If they're reavered, we lose. It is absolutely unnecessary to take on that level of risk. Again, lynching me is a scum move. Force the scum to NK me.

Who are you advocating that we lynch today? What is our path to joint victory?

[Chaqa]

Dargo, did you watch anyone?

I think our Reavers are likely Tem, teacon, and Dargo tbh

How can dargo be a Reaver? He was protected by Tom N3.

dargo is clear.

Protected by Tom N3 and saved by Jamiet N2. He could only have been recruited N1, but D2 he said he watched Jamie visit me, which helped clear Jamie. Also, it is likely that RP failed to recruit N1, so dargo is as good as clear if not 100%.

I wanted to bump this - Dargo could have seen Jamie visit and still been converted, but given how that the recruiting wasn't done until Night 3, I think we can safely assume Dargo is not a Reaver.

[xorxes]

@goldie, you say your Reaver candidates are dargo and damo, but I think those two are rather unlikely to be Reavers.

dargo was saved by Jamiet N2 and protected by Tom N3. So the only time he could have been reavered is N1, but there are good reasons to think nobody was reavered N1. Not to mention that he was helpful in clearing Jamiet D2.

damo read ND correctly D2, so he was unlikely to be reavered N1. He was protected by Tom N2. He could have been reavered N3. But he was a strong candidate to being protected by Bunny or Jamiet.

So your hypothesis is that dargo was reavered N1, nobody N2 (but why?), and damo N3?

What makes you pick the least likely candidates as the most likely?

[xorxes]

How can dargo be a Reaver? He was protected by Tom N3.

dargo is clear.

Protected by Tom N3 and saved by Jamiet N2. He could only have been recruited N1, but D2 he said he watched Jamie visit me, which helped clear Jamie. Also, it is likely that RP failed to recruit N1, so dargo is as good as clear if not 100%.

I wanted to bump this - Dargo could have seen Jamie visit and still been converted, but given how that the recruiting wasn't done until Night 3, I think we can safely assume Dargo is not a Reaver.

He could not have been attacked the night Jamie protected him, because Jamie was told there was a single attack on dargo.

[Chaqa]

I'm aware this isn't foolproof or surefire, but compiling it all. I'm only counting if it's EXACTLY the same, including the quote of Jamie on the first post.

List of people who have copied Temasek's posts:
Jamiet quote post: Bunny, teacon, EMC, Fox
(those who did the Jamie quote post w/o the quote): dargo, damo
Goddammit damo: damo, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, Bunny, peter, EMC, Fox
I am NOT rP: damo, Bunny, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, peter, EMC, Fox

[Chaqa]

Protected by Tom N3 and saved by Jamiet N2. He could only have been recruited N1, but D2 he said he watched Jamie visit me, which helped clear Jamie. Also, it is likely that RP failed to recruit N1, so dargo is as good as clear if not 100%.

I wanted to bump this - Dargo could have seen Jamie visit and still been converted, but given how that the recruiting wasn't done until Night 3, I think we can safely assume Dargo is not a Reaver.

He could not have been attacked the night Jamie protected him, because Jamie was told there was a single attack on dargo.

And we had no deaths that night?

OK, so Dargo and you are Reaver-clear. Damo is relatively unlikely to be a Reaver.

So reavers are assumingly in: peter, teacon, Jamiet, Bunny.

[Chaqa]

I'm aware this isn't foolproof or surefire, but compiling it all. I'm only counting if it's EXACTLY the same, including the quote of Jamie on the first post.

List of people who have copied Temasek's posts:
Jamiet quote post: Bunny, teacon, EMC, Fox
(those who did the Jamie quote post w/o the quote): dargo, damo

Goddammit damo: damo, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, Bunny, peter, EMC, Fox

I am NOT rP: damo, Bunny, dargo, teacon, Chaqa, peter, EMC, Fox

(listing myself because I'm about to do the one I missed).
So, people who accomplished the repost: Bunny, teacon, EMC, Fox, Chaqa

Need to do the Jamiet quote post properly: dargo, damo, peter

People who have to do all of them: Jamiet, goldfinger
(not asking xorxes since we know he isn't a Reaver)

[Chaqa]

:tumbleweed:

I don't get this. Care to explain?