MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[goldfinger0303]

Also, I did town a solid favor last two nights ago by baiting the bozo NK and I don't think I've gotten proper thanks for it. Thank enough should be enough to buy me today.

[Chaqa]

At this point I see absolutely no reason to believe goldfinger is anything but the Bounty Hunter. If another BH claimant existed, it would have to be among the VT group. There are five "VT" in this game - 2 backups.

Flavius was VT #1.
Bozo was VT #2.
ND was Backup Companion.

Temasek is the rPrime.

Of the VT claimants, this leaves Fox, EMC, and I. Two of us are real VT/Backup Doc. The other is either Bounty Hunter (unlikely) or Investigator.

This means that the non-town confirmed are Tem, Goldie, and 1 of us.

Foxcastle fits as the Investigator super well, based on voting and such. He would be my pick for Investigator.

[BunnyGo]

As I've said before, lynching me is pretty dumb. You're just letting the scum get another free NK (or two). I'm voting with town, as I've sworn to stay with xorxes (unless he's voting for me, obviously) so you're just losing a town vote and a town clear for no good reason. And you're assuming bunny hasn't been reavered as well. We know its two of the PRs. *Which ones* is the biggest question.

Again, GM has confirmed we can win together. If a known scum player who is a bounty comes up, I will let you know. We don't know who three of the scum are. I have two bounties left. Its more likely than not that we can win together.

And what happens when your bounties aren't scum? (this is of course assuming you are BH...likely, but not guaranteed) Then we can't win together. I don't buy it. I don't like it. Lynching Tem today doesn't save us a NK (if he were assassin, I'd be voting him in a heartbeat). But leaving you alive leaves us vulnerable. You're a bigger risk to town than either scum team, simply because they're going to lose from here.

How about we find the assassin today then? That limits scum to one kill a night (and frankly, that should be town's priority). Then it guarantees I can't steal a victory in one night. Again, and I will emphasize this, I need *two* bounties to come in to win.

But to tie with town you need one of those bounties to be scum, AND be the last lynch. Also, there are 2 night kills if we don't get the assassin (enough to finish tonight), AND if we "accidentally" lynch a bounty today then you only need to let slip 1 name for either scum team to get you over the finish. No bet from me. ##VOTE Gold. (can we end soon?)

[Chaqa]

I am NOT rP, as a matter of fact just a VT. I fear damo has been revered.

huh...it just struck me that damo would be my first choice to reaver. Maybe they are bussing each other? (am I using that term right?) Damo gets credit for not being reavered by giving up Temosek...then gets to hide the rest of the game? It's a thought...Not necessarily likely, but do we have evidence this can't be the case?

I want to remind:

Reaver Secundus does NOT know who Reaver Dritte is.

[BunnyGo]

I am NOT rP, as a matter of fact just a VT. I fear damo has been revered.

huh...it just struck me that damo would be my first choice to reaver. Maybe they are bussing each other? (am I using that term right?) Damo gets credit for not being reavered by giving up Temosek...then gets to hide the rest of the game? It's a thought...Not necessarily likely, but do we have evidence this can't be the case?

I want to remind:

Reaver Secundus does NOT know who Reaver Dritte is.

your point? Reaver Prime knows both and is known by both.

[Chaqa]

##CallGM: if the Investigator (turned Assassin) is the final member of the Alliance, and had been previously converted to a Reaver, would they still possess the Alliance factional night-kill, or would they lose it?

[Chaqa]

huh...it just struck me that damo would be my first choice to reaver. Maybe they are bussing each other? (am I using that term right?) Damo gets credit for not being reavered by giving up Temosek...then gets to hide the rest of the game? It's a thought...Not necessarily likely, but do we have evidence this can't be the case?

I want to remind:

Reaver Secundus does NOT know who Reaver Dritte is.

your point? Reaver Prime knows both and is known by both.

He could be signaling to Reaver 2 that damo is his teammate?

[BunnyGo]

I want to remind:

Reaver Secundus does NOT know who Reaver Dritte is.

your point? Reaver Prime knows both and is known by both.

He could be signaling to Reaver 2 that damo is his teammate?

Oh...very clever.

[damo666]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

[Chaqa]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I agree, we need to eliminate a night-kill. I have some thoughts.

When we were analyzing why kalel would roleblock Damo, I thought it had to mean he (damo) was lying and that Damo had been Reaver'd. However, we now know that the Agent was worcej, which means Kalel roleblocked Damo because he was worried about Damo scanning the Investigator.

This to me proves goldie is the Bounty Hunter and should NOT be the lynch today. Nor should Temasek, for reasons we've stated re: Bunny can commute him tonight.

This means the lynch should be between Foxcastle, EMC, and myself.

Any other option leads to town losing. Worcej had listed his Bounties as ND, Bozo, Vecna-Fox. Going to gather more information and see where it leads me.

[BunnyGo]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I don't agree with the first sentence (maybe if someone elaborates...this is the first time I've lived this long in a game, so the endgame is unclear to me).

But the rest I agree with.

[damo666]

At this point I see absolutely no reason to believe goldfinger is anything but the Bounty Hunter. If another BH claimant existed, it would have to be among the VT group. There are five "VT" in this game - 2 backups.

Flavius was VT #1.
Bozo was VT #2.
ND was Backup Companion.

Temasek is the rPrime.

Of the VT claimants, this leaves Fox, EMC, and I. Two of us are real VT/Backup Doc. The other is either Bounty Hunter (unlikely) or Investigator.

This means that the non-town confirmed are Tem, Goldie, and 1 of us.

Foxcastle fits as the Investigator super well, based on voting and such. He would be my pick for Investigator.

Say I read one of emc/Fox/Chaqa and get VT then if we have lynched Gold and he was BH we are 50/50 but if we have lynched Tem we are picking from 3.

WE MUST LYNCH GOLD

[BunnyGo]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I agree, we need to eliminate a night-kill. I have some thoughts.

When we were analyzing why kalel would roleblock Damo, I thought it had to mean he (damo) was lying and that Damo had been Reaver'd. However, we now know that the Agent was worcej, which means Kalel roleblocked Damo because he was worried about Damo scanning the Investigator.

This to me proves goldie is the Bounty Hunter and should NOT be the lynch today. Nor should Temasek, for reasons we've stated re: Bunny can commute him tonight.

This means the lynch should be between Foxcastle, EMC, and myself.

Any other option leads to town losing. Worcej had listed his Bounties as ND, Bozo, Vecna-Fox. Going to gather more information and see where it leads me.

Disagree: lynching a BH target is a loss for town. We are more likely to hit a target than we are the assassin. I think you underestimate the ability of scum to throw to 3rd party.

[Chaqa]

For now - ##Vote Foxcastle

[Chaqa]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I agree, we need to eliminate a night-kill. I have some thoughts.

When we were analyzing why kalel would roleblock Damo, I thought it had to mean he (damo) was lying and that Damo had been Reaver'd. However, we now know that the Agent was worcej, which means Kalel roleblocked Damo because he was worried about Damo scanning the Investigator.

This to me proves goldie is the Bounty Hunter and should NOT be the lynch today. Nor should Temasek, for reasons we've stated re: Bunny can commute him tonight.

This means the lynch should be between Foxcastle, EMC, and myself.

Any other option leads to town losing. Worcej had listed his Bounties as ND, Bozo, Vecna-Fox. Going to gather more information and see where it leads me.

Disagree: lynching a BH target is a loss for town. We are more likely to hit a target than we are the assassin. I think you underestimate the ability of scum to throw to 3rd party.

Let me run through the math.

[damo666]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I don't agree with the first sentence (maybe if someone elaborates...this is the first time I've lived this long in a game, so the endgame is unclear to me).

But the rest I agree with.

Because of the risk of 4 NKs in 2 nights. Then we would have lost (I think).

[BunnyGo]

We must lynch the Assassin either today or tomorrow otherwise town probably lose.

Therefore we should ##vote Goldfinger today because he might be the assassin. If he flips bounty hunter we can still win.

We know Tem is Reaver Prime so lynching him does not reduce NK.

Bunny should either commute Tem to limit NK to 1 or commute me to gtee another read.

I don't agree with the first sentence (maybe if someone elaborates...this is the first time I've lived this long in a game, so the endgame is unclear to me).

But the rest I agree with.

Because of the risk of 4 NKs in 2 nights. Then we would have lost (I think).

Sick Bunny sucks at math. you may need to elaborate for me.

[damo666]

For now - ##Vote Foxcastle

No point guessing from VTs now before my read. A mislynch is almost certain town loss.

[Chaqa]

For now - ##Vote Foxcastle

No point guessing from VTs now before my read. A mislynch is almost certain town loss.

If you're still town and not a Reaver.

[damo666]

I don't agree with the first sentence (maybe if someone elaborates...this is the first time I've lived this long in a game, so the endgame is unclear to me).

But the rest I agree with.

Because of the risk of 4 NKs in 2 nights. Then we would have lost (I think).

Sick Bunny sucks at math. you may need to elaborate for me.

Day 5 7 town 1 maf 3 reavers 1 BH
Lynch a non maf 7121 or 7130
N5 2 town deaths 5121 or 5130
d6 lynch another reaver or the BH 5111or 5120
N6 2 town deaths 3111 3120
D7 lynch maf 3011 3020
N7 1 town death 2011 possible win but only if the 2 town contain a bounty or 2020 definite loss

Of course this assume NKs on N5 and N6.

However I'm pretty convinced we must kill assassin today or tomorrow.