MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[brainbomb]

here ill get the process started
##end

[bozotheclown]

This can't be right, capt and snowy would currently both be bussing ghug.

When you decided this D2, why did you conclude ghug must not be scum instead of captainmeme or snowy?

I realised it was an unlikely triple. The leap that ghug wasn't scum was clearly erroneous and I can't remember why I made that leap without a reread. I'll try when I have time.

If you thought it was obvious ghug was scum, I would expect you to conclude one of captainmeme or snowy was town if you did not think it was possible they were both bussing ghug.

[bozotheclown]

stop stalling and vote bozo then we can end hammer and win this stupid game

That would be a good way to win the game if you are mafia.

What do you think of damo's voting progression D2? He went from saying ghug was obviously scum to excluding him from being scum because 2 lesser scum reads were voting for him, and ended up helping save ghug from the DK.

[bozotheclown]

For those of you wondering why I got roleblocked the reason was N1 when I said snowy would need protection if he hopes to avoid getting an STD.

and I assume mafia took this to be a doc claim and me protecting snowy.
fitting the next night I get RBd; ghug flips roleblocker and snowy dies.

I can certify to you Im actually a VT and not a doc.

scum fucked up

Why did you make this post at the end of N3?

You did not answer this question. If you had the mafia believing you were the doctor, why would you want to reveal that you were not the doctor?

[bozotheclown]

Rest in peace foxxy

So I take it scum targeted the same person?

Unless one of the mafia decided to withhold their NK for some reason.

Why would they do that?

I doubt they would, but you never know.

[brainbomb]

who will you be voting for bozo

[brainbomb]

great talk
youre so towny

[bozotheclown]

##vote ghug

well it's obvious is it not?

For Bozo:

Durga Squigs TFB
ghug capt snowy

Pretty low level of confidence in this though

For Bozo:

Durga Squigs TFB
ghug capt snowy

Pretty low level of confidence in this though

This can't be right, capt and snowy would currently both be bussing ghug.

Other team

Capt snowy FishFox?

##vote captainmeme

In other unhappy news, the ghug wagon seems to be quietly melting away

#stopthecount

Leavers, explain why you have abandoned your sacred duty

I can't get a ghug scumteam to make sense so he can't be scum.

This is damo's progression on ghug D2. At the beginning of the day, he thinks it is obvious ghug is scum. Then, he provides his scum team prediction with ghug, captainmeme, and snowy as a team. Minutes later, he says that can't be right because captainmeme and snowy were voting for ghug. Instead of concluding captainmeme and/or snowy are not ghug's teammates, he apparently decides ghug must not be scum, despite never stating why he was scum reading captainmeme or snowy, or why he thought they were on the same team. When snowy asked him to explain his vote change, damo says "I can't get a ghug scumteam to make sense so he can't be scum", which is apparently based on his unwillingness to change his unexplained scum reads of captainmeme or snowy.

Also, damo's vote change from ghug to captainmeme dropped ghug from being the top wagon to a tie with Macca, while captainmeme had no other votes. damo's vote for captainmeme only lasted about 1 hour before he helped start the Tom wagon, who damo had not previously listed as a scum read.

What I think happened D2 is that damo and captainmeme knew ghug would look suspicious for the kgray NK and decided to get ahead of it by voting for ghug early, knowing the wagon was not likely to last all day. Then, damo fabricated reasons to move his vote later to make sure ghug was not the DK, after he thought he had voted for ghug long enough to distance him from ghug.

##VOTE damo

[bozotheclown]

ghug voted for damo D1 when damo had no other votes. Less then 2 hours later TFB placed the fourth vote on damo to put damo up 4-2 (with 3 players tied at 2). 3 minutes after TFB's vote for damo, ghug changed his vote to TFB to tie TFB with damo at 3 votes. I think ghug did not want to risk damo's wagon gaining any more momentum at that point, and thought his original vote for damo would provide enough distancing for later.

[bozotheclown]

I checked D1 and damo did find reasons to question captainmeme and snowy D1, but there was nothing to indicate he had a stronger scum read of them than he had of ghug D2.

[bozotheclown]

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:

Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.

At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

[bozotheclown]

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:

Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.

At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

[bozotheclown]

Sorry for the poor post formatting, apparently I accidentally posted the previous post in the old M1020 thread when trying to copy the quote from that game, then mistakenly quoted myself when trying to copy it over to this game.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Mostly meaningless if I had to guess but Damo did show up as vanilla in my investigation. Unfortunately we ended up with the Goon and the Forger still alive so they could be just about anything. I think bozo and damo are our last two scum here is brain is telling the truth. Interested to see what lfischl would have to say there. That does hard clear me and Brain if lfischl concedes he was protecting the real day vig. It does soft clear lfischl given I think dayvig fake claim seems very unlikely to me. Say what you will about their play being unhelpful, brain, but I don't think given their prior town play I see anything necessarily scummy there

I'll toss a vote on ##VOTE bozo for you, because I trust you and think he is one of the two scum alive along with damo, but I won't hammer until lfischl posts though.

[TheFlyingBoat]

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:

Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.

At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

Agreed with this and is a point I made earlier. I think you are correct that damo is the other of two living scum members

[bozotheclown]

Mostly meaningless if I had to guess but Damo did show up as vanilla in my investigation. Unfortunately we ended up with the Goon and the Forger still alive so they could be just about anything. I think bozo and damo are our last two scum here is brain is telling the truth. Interested to see what lfischl would have to say there. That does hard clear me and Brain if lfischl concedes he was protecting the real day vig. It does soft clear lfischl given I think dayvig fake claim seems very unlikely to me. Say what you will about their play being unhelpful, brain, but I don't think given their prior town play I see anything necessarily scummy there

I'll toss a vote on ##VOTE bozo for you, because I trust you and think he is one of the two scum alive along with damo, but I won't hammer until lfischl posts though.

I an not mafia, if you vote me out here town will almost certainly lose.

[bozotheclown]

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:



At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

Agreed with this and is a point I made earlier. I think you are correct that damo is the other of two living scum members

Then you should vote for damo to give town a chance to win D6.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Agreed with this and is a point I made earlier. I think you are correct that damo is the other of two living scum members

Then you should vote for damo to give town a chance to win D6.

Who do you think the final two scum are and what teams do you think they are on?

[brainbomb]

Tonight the role of bozo will be played by dustin hoffman from death of a salesman.

please do not forget to visit the lobby for a snack

[bozotheclown]

Agreed with this and is a point I made earlier. I think you are correct that damo is the other of two living scum members

Then you should vote for damo to give town a chance to win D6.

Who do you think the final two scum are and what teams do you think they are on?

After looking at damo's D2 closer, I think he is the E mafia, since his reason for backing off on his ghug vote did not make sense. That would make BesharamSabi the K mafia. However, I still think there is some chance that brainbomb could be the E mafia because of the way captainmeme argued for a mass claim based on brainbomb being "cleared". If that is the case, though, damo would be my bet for the K mafia, so I think damo is the best DK and should reveal the identity of the last mafia.