Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

Speak to us, Worcej, I see you there.

At work, meeting in 1 minute, 10+ pages to catch up on.

I need to think more on the darg/EP situation. I have time still

[Chaqa]

All on the same page:

Bozo: “why would you crumb, it will help mafia.”
Also Bozo: “I didn’t think to crumb, but I should have”

Lol

[worcej]

They do? Enough for scum to figure out?

Normally I'd say no, but Vecna got sniped N1 and Damos got hit last night.

I'm not sure whether this is all coincidence or skill.

It was patently obvious that damo was either Tracker or Doc, I don't think that part required that much skill.

Or a VT, but it was the best odds to kill him versus guessing on others.

[Jamiet99uk]

In 2.5 hours I will start drinking.

You've got my attention for that much time.

I'm wondering if I should claim.

Bozo is scum.

[Chaqa]

Tom provided an order, I suppose follow it. I’m not sure I understand the point of the order though.

[Jamiet99uk]

Okay then.

@BO_SOX
what
is
your
role?

Are you the WHELK? Perhaps the TAPEWORM? Or is it the AMOEBA?

[flash2015]

In reading through the past few pages, I don't understand how we think it could be MYLO today even in the worst possible circumstances. We are 9-5 currently.
If we lynch a townie today it is MYLO tomorrow.

If we lynch a mafia that is the cow, we will be down to 7-4 tomorrow. The only thing the cow will do is it could potentially change a MYLO day into a LYLO day (if we hit the cow today, and mislynch tomorrow it means LYLO instead of MYLO day 6). That's it. I don't think we should be obsessing about it so much.

We now just need to make a choice between EP/darg and stick with it. If it was me I would probably choose darg...but I will leave it up to the townclears to make the final decision.

[worcej]

Comparing our Behaviour
Look at Dargo's ISO. No mention of Percy (his claimed tracker target) in D3 or N3. Tracker!Dargo should have been signalling his reads to the town in case he died. He even had a perfect opportunity to disguise his read in the Tracker smokescreen I started on D3.

Now look at my ISO. I tracked xorxes and I'm trying to convey that I think xorxes is more town, but then I scale it up to make the smokescreen to explicitly write out my track. Nobody else participated in it the smokescreen.

Then there's D4. Believe me about work or not, but I claimed as soon as I could verify that the presence or non-presence of a RB wouldn't change the scum reaction to my read. I was getting townread the previous night (someone even asked me and flash or food about what I thought about being on neither bozo or xorxes' scumteam) and had 0 reason to put myself in a counterclaim situation.

I wrote out the reasons for my reads and how I thought they impacted the information state of the town.

Scum Theatre
Some of you raise a valid concern about scum v scum theatre... I don't think there's anything more I can do to prove my claim is genuine, so I'll instead invite you to look at how I've been playing and how I've played in past games.

In m46 when I was on the block, I wrote out an essay about how I approach the game. In that essay, I believe I mentioned my interest in the "game within the game" of town PRs vs scum PRs. As I hope you will see from my play this game, I have been focused on interactions between PRs and how I think town can maximize its chances of using its PRs. I do this most games, but my role as the tracker (and after a short while, the only apparent investigative left in the early-game bracket) has caused me to focus more on the mechanics of the game than reads.

I'll be checking in over the next few hours to answer any questions.

Hmmmm.... Adding this to my thoughts....

[Jamiet99uk]

What about you Flash?

Is it the GNAT? Are you the SEA CUCUMBER?

Maybe the LEPRECHAUN?

[Jamiet99uk]

Hmmmm.... Adding this to my thoughts....

Hmmmm....

[Jamiet99uk]

Hmmmm.... Adding this to my thoughts....

Hmmmm....

Hmmmm....

[worcej]

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

There are 2 things I noticed about this post. First, Espresso makes a mistake about how the tracker role works, since the tracker would be able to track the mafia performing the NK whether it was the ant or not. Second, Espresso displays a specific knowledge about the mafia by pointing out that there may not be ant.

I think I am at +9 with my +1's, so i'll go with that...

+9

[worcej]

I had forgotten about the double vote. If Chaqa is the Lover then we're at LYLO.

And this makes it more clear for me now why a fake claim would be made.

[bozotheclown]

All on the same page:

Bozo: “why would you crumb, it will help mafia.”
Also Bozo: “I didn’t think to crumb, but I should have”

Lol

Things like this make me still think you are scum. It is obvious that if you have the role you claimed, hinting at your target D1 is a bad idea. Crumbing your role D1 in a way no one would detect, so that you could point to it later to verify your claim, would have been a good idea.

[bozotheclown]

In reading through the past few pages, I don't understand how we think it could be MYLO today even in the worst possible circumstances. We are 9-5 currently.
If we lynch a townie today it is MYLO tomorrow.

If we lynch a mafia that is the cow, we will be down to 7-4 tomorrow. The only thing the cow will do is it could potentially change a MYLO day into a LYLO day (if we hit the cow today, and mislynch tomorrow it means LYLO instead of MYLO day 6). That's it. I don't think we should be obsessing about it so much.

We now just need to make a choice between EP/darg and stick with it. If it was me I would probably choose darg...but I will leave it up to the townclears to make the final decision.

If we mislynch today and Chaqa is town, it will be 6-5 D5. There is a 5/7 chance the mafia have the double vote power, which means they could force a no lynch D6 for the win. So, there is a 5/7 chance it is mylo today, if Chaqa is town. If we mislynch Chaqa today, it will be 7-5 tomorrow and lylo. The benefit of lynching Chaqa is that we can't be sure he is really town. If Chaqa is scum, it is not mylo since it would be 7-5 D5 is we mislynch someone else, but of course it is still better to lynch Chaqa today if he is scum.

[flash2015]

What about you Flash?

Is it the GNAT? Are you the SEA CUCUMBER?

Maybe the LEPRECHAUN?

Do you want me to claim now? I thought I needed to wait for bo.

[Chaqa]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

[bozotheclown]

My N3 theory could still be close, maybe xorxes was just pocketing damo with Espresso/dargorygel as the fifth scum.

[bozotheclown]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

You did not have to claim when you did, which is the reason I still suspect your claim may be fake.

If you were leaving an undetectable crumb to later verify a claim, I would expect you to crumb your role or animal, not your target. I do not see any benefit to town to ever make your target public, since the only way to verify your target gets you killed.

[worcej]

I believe that makes it mylo, not lylo, assuming we can avoid a cow kill. We should lynch Chaqa here to make sure his claim is real, since he is the only one we can mislynch without losing if the mafia have the double vote. The tracker counterclaims can wait until D5.

##VOTE Chaqa

Dear god how can Bozo be real. This isn’t scummy it’s just dumb.

If your claim is real, we can lynch you for free. You should be volunteering to be lynched if your claim is real.

There is some merit in this thought than his massclaim idea - removing the double-kill potential if chaqa is telling the truth does buy us time.