MAFIA LVIII (58) - WITCHFINDER GENERAL - GAME THREAD

[Hamilton Brian]

Tr's 3p essay could be camouflage

It's pretty elaborate; it certainly contributed to a big shift in where people were lining up.

[Hamilton Brian]

Let's just say you're on my radar but there's other digs I need to do right now. I think Bo slipped something in one of his do-or-die posts.

What makes you say that?

Who did Bo call out in his final posts? Who did he leave out? Would he have been bold enough to include his final scum partner in that list, or would he have calculated that he needed to throw some cover and NOT list his final partner?

That's all I'm saying.

[Hamilton Brian]

Late movers to the Bo wagon, after Bozo made it 5 Bo/4 Bob were Durga, Seth, TrP, and Worcej.

I'm not looking at D3 votes; enough irregularities with the bot that I want to avoid it right now.

D2 late movers to Chaqa after EMC made it 5 HB/5 Chaqa/5 Flash...sorry, Flash made it 6 Chaqa/5 Flash include Bozo, Damos, Fox, Seth, and Rdr. Bozo voted before Flash's claim. Only two of those were a move from Flash, and of the two remaining, one is clearly town.

More information would be needed to build a case which requires a more patient reading of D3.

[damo666]

this is exactly my train of thought

This is good (except of course this is precisely what you'd say as 3p)!

Apart from me anybody considered comfortably town could be 3p.

This is untrue. 3p is not immune to NK, the perfect play is to not draw dk or NK, is the top poster by far really going to be 3p? Kinda short sighted of me since I'm likely to get nk'd sooner than later

Yep. Good point. I concede you are probably not 3p.

[damo666]

Tr's 3p essay could be camouflage

It's pretty elaborate; it certainly contributed to a big shift in where people were lining up.

And maybe warlock TrPrado predicted bo?

[damo666]

Let's just say you're on my radar but there's other digs I need to do right now. I think Bo slipped something in one of his do-or-die posts.

What makes you say that?

Who did Bo call out in his final posts? Who did he leave out? Would he have been bold enough to include his final scum partner in that list, or would he have calculated that he needed to throw some cover and NOT list his final partner?

That's all I'm saying.

Bo called for rdr to be voted first, this would be one hell of a bluff with only 1 goon left so I think he's off the hook. The way he talked about Seth could be a semi bluff. The obvious omissions were Bob and Fox but unless Fox was early bussing (brave with only 2 left) we can eliminate him. This is why I end up with Bob and Seth.

[Hamilton Brian]

For Day 3, at the 7 minute mark Fox put a vote on Worcej from Seth, to make it 3 Fox/3 Bob/3 Worcej/3 Seth.

4th minute, Summit makes it Seth>Worcej, which would make it 3 Fox/3 Bob/4 Worcej/2 Seth
3rd minute, Vecna unvotes>Bob, making it 3 Fox/4 Bob/4 Worcej/2 Seth
2nd minute, EMC: Fox>Worcej. 2 Fox/4 Bob/5 Worcej/2 Seth
2nd: Durga: Seth>Bob. 2 Fox/5 Bob/5 Worcej/1 Seth
2nd: Durga: Bob>Worcej. 2 Fox/4 Bob/6 Worcej/1 Seth
2nd: Summit: Worcej>Bob. 2 Fox/ 5 Bob/ 5 Worcej/ 1 Seth
2nd: Durga: Worcej>Bob. 2 Fox/ 6 Bob/ 4 Worcej/ 1 Seth
Last minute: EMC goes from Worcej to Bob (doesn't register); would have been 2 Fox/ 7 Bob/ 3 Worcej

From that point, it's scrambling. Bozo votes Bob. Then Bozo, Damos, Worcej, Seth all vote for Worcej.

I don't know up to what point to call the voting reliable. From EMC's 1 minute vote until Day's End, it was messed up. I don't know if there's any dots to connect from this piece to the previous late vote data I presented.

[seth24c]

At least now y'all know that I was telling the truth and that my day 1 switch from Bismarck to bunny wasn't malicious.

[Hamilton Brian]

From that point, it's scrambling. Bozo votes Bob. Then Bozo, Damos, Worcej, Seth all vote for Worcej.

I don't know up to what point to call the voting reliable. From EMC's 1 minute vote until Day's End, it was messed up. I don't know if there's any dots to connect from this piece to the previous late vote data I presented.

The additional bit to add, given that Bo is confirmed scum, is their vote on Worcej on Day 3. Dropped it with less than 18 hours to go, never changed it.

Any connections to Bo and the Worcej voters?

I don't remember how active they were that day, and I can't check right now since I am going out.

If someone wants to reread the post where he dropped the vote, it's here: viewtopic.php?p=170269#p170269

[Foxcastle]

At least now y'all know that I was telling the truth and that my day 1 switch from Bismarck to bunny wasn't malicious.

How do we know this?

[Foxcastle]

At least now y'all know that I was telling the truth and that my day 1 switch from Bismarck to bunny wasn't malicious.

How do we know this?

Or rather, I see what you mean, but are you saying that it means you're not scum?

[worcej]

So Worcej, since it's your new thing, who would you NOT like to see killed on Day5?

Hardy har har

[worcej]

So Worcej, since it's your new thing, who would you NOT like to see killed on Day5?

Since the warlock is around we probably shouldn't narrow this down too much. They can already get a guess in with reasonable odds.

How do we know it is a warlock or not?

[worcej]

this is exactly my train of thought

This is good (except of course this is precisely what you'd say as 3p)!

Apart from me anybody considered comfortably town could be 3p.

This is untrue. 3p is not immune to NK, the perfect play is to not draw dk or NK, is the top poster by far really going to be 3p? Kinda short sighted of me since I'm likely to get nk'd sooner than later

Are you? If that was the case, why haven't you yet?

[worcej]

What makes you say that?

Who did Bo call out in his final posts? Who did he leave out? Would he have been bold enough to include his final scum partner in that list, or would he have calculated that he needed to throw some cover and NOT list his final partner?

That's all I'm saying.

Bo called for rdr to be voted first, this would be one hell of a bluff with only 1 goon left so I think he's off the hook. The way he talked about Seth could be a semi bluff. The obvious omissions were Bob and Fox but unless Fox was early bussing (brave with only 2 left) we can eliminate him. This is why I end up with Bob and Seth.

Assessing anything Bo said is just going to be an annoying case of WIFOM

[seth24c]

At least now y'all know that I was telling the truth and that my day 1 switch from Bismarck to bunny wasn't malicious.

How do we know this?

Or rather, I see what you mean, but are you saying that it means you're not scum?

I’m just pointing out that it was one of the things people found suspicious about me and now you know I was telling the truth when I gave my explanation earlier in the game.

[worcej]

In an effort to acknowledge that my reads are garbage, I am instead going to default to some VCA. With 3/4 now outted, I think there are some safe assumptions to be made.

The votes+alignment quote I made earlier is below:

Final D1 Votes:
BunnyGo (5) - worcej, Vecna, Hellenic Riot, ghug, Seth24c
BismarckAlive [now EMC] (4) - damo666, bozotheclown, summit_fever, Flash2015
damo666 (3) - BismarckAlive, bo_sox48, Durga
Yoyoyozo [Now Bob] (3) - TrPrado, rdrivera2005, BunnyGo
Durga (2) - Foxcastle, Yoyoyozo
No‑Kill (1) - Hamilton Brian

Failed to vote: SarahK


Final D2 Votes:
Chaqa(11) - Vecna, summit_fever, Durga, TrPrado, e.m.c^42, flash2015, bozotheclown, damo666, Foxcastle, seth24c, rdrivera2005.
Hamilton Brian(3) - ghug, worcej, Chaqa
flash2015(2) - bo_sox48, BobMcBob
Unvote(1) - Hamilton Brian


Final D3 Votes:
worcej (6) bo_sox48, Foxcastle, worcej, damo666, seth24c, bozotheclown
BobMcBob (6) rdrivera2005, TrPrado, Vecna, summit_fever, Durga, e.m.c^42
Hamilton Brian (1) BobMcBob
seth24c (1) Hamilton Brian'

Final D4 Votes:
bo_sox48 (9) damo666, Foxcastle, e.m.c^42, summit_fever, bozotheclown, Durga, seth24c, TrPrado, worcej
BobMcBob (3) bo_sox48, rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian
rdrivera2005 (1) BobMcBob

My conclusions:

1. Looking at D1, I think it is pretty safe to say that EMC is most likely town - the 2 known scum votes were separated and with the vote so close, and one scum member not present, I'd imagine they would've combined onto Bunny in an effort to ensure Bismark made it to the next phase. Also, with Bismark's vote not stacked on Bunny in order to ensure his survival, somewhat adds confirmation to the above theory. This leads me to believe that D1 was TvTvT with Bunny, Bismark, and damo.
2. The Yoyo/Bob slot has good odds of being the 4th scum and should be the next murder-by-vote. This is based on the following:
   • The scum spread on D1 and bunny being 2 votes ahead of his slot, they didn't need to consolidate.
   • Bob's D2 cluster and apparently not caught up makes sense he would follow a scum member.
   • D3 he wasn't here, but his scum partner was on me instead of Bob himself and bo was one of the only votes to stay parked on me, indicating a distinct lack of willingness to move.
   • I do not put it past Bo to push a case on Bob and poke at him on N4 and vote for him as a scum partner. He also didn't mention him at all, so my guess is he set up as much WIFOM as possible.
3. Once we murder-by-vote Bob, and if he flips town, it kinda becomes open season... Just about anyone other then EMC, Durga, and seth become probable to fit TvTvTvT narrative, with seth and Durga being possible if you believe they could bus multiple times. I'd personally suggest summit first after bob based on timing of his Chaqa vote, split from Bo on the Bob/myself wagons, and the timing of the bo vote too

[Hamilton Brian]

Worcej, I feel like we might be looking at two different things for the Bob conclusions. I need to go back to Day 2 to read Bob, how long the vote was on Flash, etc.

I'm also questioning the Summit conclusion. Summit voted Chaqa with 30 minutes to go. What might make that so questionable? I do see though that your combining 3 different things to come to your conclusion.

[Hamilton Brian]

Just to flesh some of this thinking out.

Summit votes Chaqa with 30 minutes remaining. Fox asks why. Summit replies, "He had a blank slate with sarah's slot and really hasn't done much of anything. I know he doesn't have time but why just bash on emc when emc has brought something to the table?"

I see the vote split on Day 3.

Summit votes Bo_ with 43 minutes to go on Day 4. Also asserts, "Of Bo and Bob I'd be more surprised to see bob flip scum." Bo wagon hadn't really generated too much by that point. I'm not reacting to it like you are. Are you suggesting Summit is going to bus Bo_ early, then insert a shadow of doubt around Bob?

I feel like I am missing something, so if you're able to insert a detail, it'd be appreciated.

[worcej]

Worcej, I feel like we might be looking at two different things for the Bob conclusions. I need to go back to Day 2 to read Bob, how long the vote was on Flash, etc.

I'm also questioning the Summit conclusion. Summit voted Chaqa with 30 minutes to go. What might make that so questionable? I do see though that your combining 3 different things to come to your conclusion.

The vote was the 2nd vote on Chaqa and he wasn't an actual wagon yet. Then when everyone piles onto him and he appears to be the destined lynch, he could not possibly move off without causing suspicion.