M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[xorxes]

Bob would flip sooner or later (who do you think would be the lynch on D4 if emc was lynched D3?) and people pushing emc lynch would look pretty bad (exactly what is happening now). I can't see why a smart scum won't buss Bob. The fact you, Balki and Flum refuses to see this is making me really crazy.

I have a question to you, how sure you are I am scum?

I'm not sure, but you're my top suspect. How sure are you I am?

Exactly the same, you are my top scumread but I fear I might be tunneling. What I find odd you just don't seem to have doubts.

Imagine I flip town, who do you will vote next day?

I don't know what makes you say I don't have doubts.

If you flip town... it would depend on a lot of things. If we mislynch today we're at mylo, so we should get two NKs before having to decide. That's more info to base a decision on. If you're asking me who my second choice is today, I think Fox.

[kgray]

@Fox, I think the most scumread people are you and rdr

[Jamiet99uk]

Can I just make it very clear: I don't think that Rdrivera's theory about the scum NK selections is correct. I think in the first place, it's rubbish, and in the second place, it's scummy of Rdrivera to advance such a theory, yet at the same time be dead set against voting for the person who that theory ought to highlight as a top suspect (while still hinting you still suspect that person!!).

[BunnyGo]

If yiu want to waste the last myslynch on me go ahead.
I am pretty sure at least one of you, Xorxes and Balki are scum, probably two (and are keeping the other alive as a cover). There is no possible scumteam that will lynch Brain, Worcej and Chaqa before you three if you are all town.

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

There isn't any chance of a fully noob scum team left, unless you count yourself as a noob. kgray-Bunny would be the only possibility left that I could describe as "noob" (patient zero could be experienced but is not making any decisions of who to kill). Do you still consider yourself a noob?

I’ve never been scum. So I could be considered noob scum. But no, I think I’ve advanced from noob to crappy but eager beginner.

[BunnyGo]

Why do you think he is the leading candidate? Do you think he is town?

I don't know.

Yes. see my previous post comparing him to kgray (damo is also scummier than he is for all that EOD "one more vote!" stuff)

You said he was the leading candidate, but he was never in the lead. My question was why you thought he was the leading candidate.

The same reason I think Jamie’s analysis is lacking, it doesn’t consider the conversation. It doesn’t consider what others are saying but not voting. There are lots of people who think rdr is scum without voting. So even though he never led in vote count (I assume you’re being honest there...on phone ), he was “leading” in popular opinion.

[Foxcastle]

If we mislynch today we're at mylo, so we should get two NKs before having to decide.

We could also no-lynch 3 times and give the Watcher an extra chance to catch scum. There are obviously tradeoffs (no info from today's lynch) and risks (Watcher being killed N6 or N7), but if Patient Zero is still scanning and as the pool narrows, it could be worth it.

[Foxcastle]

If we mislynch today we're at mylo, so we should get two NKs before having to decide.

We could also no-lynch 3 times and give the Watcher an extra chance to catch scum. There are obviously tradeoffs (no info from today's lynch) and risks (Watcher being killed N6 or N7), but if Patient Zero is still scanning and as the pool narrows, it could be worth it.

The more I think about this, the more I think it puts the scum team on the defensive (especially the Patient Zero scan) and denies them the ability to drive a mislynch today.

##VOTE NO-LYNCH

[Fluminator]

Are Rdrivera and I the most widely scumread of all the players at this point?

I think Kgray and Damo are also scumread, but they seem pretty far behind us.

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

You and rdrivera, followed by Balki.

I believe this has been mentioned before but this thread is going really fast so soryy if you've already gone over this but can you explain your townread on Rdrivera?

[damo666]

xorxes vs. rdrivera and Balki vs. Foxcastle could be all town, I can see all of them believing the cases they are making, although patient zero could be hiding in there.

This would make kgray almost certainly scum.

Why?

Because I townread Jamie and I know my own alignment. I very much doubt 2 bussers on Bob

[Fluminator]

If we mislynch today we're at mylo, so we should get two NKs before having to decide.

We could also no-lynch 3 times and give the Watcher an extra chance to catch scum. There are obviously tradeoffs (no info from today's lynch) and risks (Watcher being killed N6 or N7), but if Patient Zero is still scanning and as the pool narrows, it could be worth it.

The more I think about this, the more I think it puts the scum team on the defensive (especially the Patient Zero scan) and denies them the ability to drive a mislynch today.

##VOTE NO-LYNCH

I could maybe be convinced to do the no lynch now instead of at mylo, but I don't see how passing up a town led lynch and giving the mafia another nightkill instead is a good idea.

[kgray]

##vote Foxcastle

[Foxcastle]

We could also no-lynch 3 times and give the Watcher an extra chance to catch scum. There are obviously tradeoffs (no info from today's lynch) and risks (Watcher being killed N6 or N7), but if Patient Zero is still scanning and as the pool narrows, it could be worth it.

The more I think about this, the more I think it puts the scum team on the defensive (especially the Patient Zero scan) and denies them the ability to drive a mislynch today.

##VOTE NO-LYNCH

I could maybe be convinced to do the no lynch now instead of at mylo, but I don't see how passing up a town led lynch and giving the mafia another nightkill instead is a good idea.

If we're not doing the triple no-lynch, I don't know that it makes sense to do it today versus tomorrow. Actually, maybe not... I was going to say that if we mislynch me, the Watcher's pool is narrowed down by one, but I am not worth watching anyway, I don't think. So maybe no-lynch today is better, because that's at least one more NK of information before lynching.

[Foxcastle]

##vote Foxcastle

Care to lay out your case?

[Foxcastle]

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

Balki:
Bozo:
BunnyGo:
Damo:
Flum: Fox, Rdrivera >> Balki
Fox: Fox, Rdrivera >> Damo, Kgray
Jamiet:
Kgray: Fox, Rdrivera
Rdrivera:
Xorxes: Fox, Rdrivera, Balki

[BunnyGo]

But you are looking only at the final vote. Chaqa for example was a strong pusher for a Xorxes lynch.

These were all the votes from the NKs (I think):

brainbomb: Vecna Chaqa Temasek
bo_sox: brainbomb
worcej: Fox Pjandy Bob
Chaqa: emc bozo Temasek xorxes Vecna Balki Bob Bunny Flum Fox Chaqa

If you really think they are targetting people who vote for them then you should be voting Fox, not me.

Stop being Lazy!Xorxes. It’s scary. The point isn’t just the EOD vote (Jamie covered that analysis). The point is to analyze who they are PUSHING!

[BunnyGo]

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

Balki:
Bozo:
BunnyGo: rdr, fox, xorxes, balki
Damo:
Flum: Fox, Rdrivera >> Balki
Fox: Fox, Rdrivera >> Damo, Kgray
Jamiet:
Kgray: Fox, Rdrivera
Rdrivera:
Xorxes: Fox, Rdrivera, Balki

[Foxcastle]

Also, with 10 players, there are 45 potential two-player combinations that could be the main scum team. If we no-lynch three times, that becomes 21 combinations, and maybe we'd have a better chance of eliminating most of those pairs to actually figure this out.

[BunnyGo]

If we mislynch today we're at mylo, so we should get two NKs before having to decide.

We could also no-lynch 3 times and give the Watcher an extra chance to catch scum. There are obviously tradeoffs (no info from today's lynch) and risks (Watcher being killed N6 or N7), but if Patient Zero is still scanning and as the pool narrows, it could be worth it.

The more I think about this, the more I think it puts the scum team on the defensive (especially the Patient Zero scan) and denies them the ability to drive a mislynch today.

##VOTE NO-LYNCH

There’s something to this. I was going to ask “why wouldn’t patient zero not just stop scanning?” But then reread the rules and he must scan. Is it really that big a win? Maybe...if in the 3 nights our watcher can nab patient zero, that’s huge. If they also nab a scum, we probably can win. I’d suggest watcher not claim after only getting one...this play is to catch 2. Leave a hint if you catch one, so we can find it if you get NK.

Something to consider.

[Foxcastle]

Also, with 10 players, there are 45 potential two-player combinations that could be the main scum team. If we no-lynch three times, that becomes 21 combinations, and maybe we'd have a better chance of eliminating most of those pairs to actually figure this out.

Also, if we narrow down to 21 teams that we can examine, and then eliminate a significant number of teams, that means that there will possibly be an outcome where half the game thinks I fit with most number scum remaining teams, half the game thinks that Rdrivera fits with the most number of remaining teams teams, but a bigger majority of game might discover that they agree on a second choice.

Basically, this let's us have ranked choice voting. If half of you think me and Qbert are the team, and half of you think Rdrivera and Qbert are the team, then the thing to do there is not fight between me and Rdrivera, it's to lynch Qbert.

[Fluminator]

Can you remind me why you don't suspect Rdrivera too much? Sorry if you've arleady said in the past.