MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[BK3K]

Here is Chaqa's D4 progression on PE:

It's probably just Lfischl, BK3K, and like Eden or Bona.

yeah that makes more sense to me, but that doesn't point to anyone

It pointed to ghug, at least somewhat.

Maybe Eden, TFB, +1newbie?

let's not

have you read my case on eden?

Yeah.

I'm torn on Eden. I think he's quite off his normal town game, but I also think that could just be because he doesn't have the time to focus into mafia? But if he's mafia, why does he move to bus ghug there? Ghug is a valuable mafia to be alive, and it's hard for me to imagine he does that when he would be an expected nightkill as soon as like tonight or tomorrow.

The Eden wagon is absolutely bonkers and should not be a thing.

You guys would be much better served voting me out.

Bump

[Bonatogether]

starting a read of d4

it will be sporadic

[KoalaAttack]

Here is Chaqa's D4 progression on PE:

It's probably just Lfischl, BK3K, and like Eden or Bona.

It pointed to ghug, at least somewhat.

Maybe Eden, TFB, +1newbie?

Yeah.

I'm torn on Eden. I think he's quite off his normal town game, but I also think that could just be because he doesn't have the time to focus into mafia? But if he's mafia, why does he move to bus ghug there? Ghug is a valuable mafia to be alive, and it's hard for me to imagine he does that when he would be an expected nightkill as soon as like tonight or tomorrow.

The Eden wagon is absolutely bonkers and should not be a thing.

You guys would be much better served voting me out.

Bump

I saw this.

I am going to try my hand at posting a last minute Dying Declaration Suspect List tonight.

[Bonatogether]

ok im not going to be able to start making a post until like :45

[KoalaAttack]

I was going to hit Submit at like t-5 minutes but need to do something IRL...


Koala's Dying Declaration Suspect List 5.0:

(1) Chaqa – claims Mafia, claims Town for lfischl with shaky post-factum justfication, trolls not doing a VCA which is still not done, excuses themselves from even trying to share Suspects tonight. If they are Townie, they are hands-down the least useful Townie ever. Bozo's outline of their progression above tracks very strongly with my theory that Chaqa wanted to distance from President Eden but didn't really want to kill them. And then went "oh shit it's really happening" and tried to backpedal.

(2) lfischl – The Shameless Saving of Eden! Also, with my limited experience of 2 games, lfischl is the far & away best Mafia player on here... everyone else (on either side) has all this activity, all these posts, all this energy spent... lfischl just lurks, then shows up at the exactly the right time, and says a dozen words – yet somehow, it results in exactly they outcome they are after. I want to learn to be more like lfischl – what an incredible ROI on the time spent on the game!

– It was really close between Chaqa & lfischl, and I wasn't sure whom to put 1st... But ultimately, it came down to my analogy of giving someone a ride who keep joking about car-jacking you. Look, if we lose and it's the Mafia team of say rdrivera & BK3K at the end I'll be like "god damn you, but also, begrudging GG to y'all". If we lose and it's Chaqa standing as Mafia at the end, I'll be like "KoalaAttack you freaking moron, you are literally the worst ever at this game". So Chaqa in the first slot it is.

– I have also been giving a lot of thought to the Pairing vs Unpairing. I see Bozo's point, but I am not completely sold. Maybe (probably) I don't know what I'm talking about, but I think there might be some over-thinking of D1 wagons here. I don’t know why so much weight goes into both clearing and suspecting folks based on that, especially given the WIFOM at play. So my view is: ~90% chance that at least one of Chaqa & lfsichl are Mafia, 50% chance they both are. The numbers are just a gut feel of course.


Koala’s NAI List:

(3) TFB – there are only 2 Mafias left, or else TFB would be the 3rd Suspect above, albeit with a decent gap. I’m certainly willing to vote them. Clearly on the wrong side of both Damo and Eden votes, and without solid rationale for either in my mind. The Damo alphabet soup thing is just bizarre, though the names-starting-with-Bs one was just as terrible **

…
big gap
…

(4) & (5) BK3K & Bona in no particular order:

– BK3K – on one hand, the last real voter on Eden’s wagon (I’m not counting Chaqa’s flail at the end) who helped tip the scales. One the other, one hesitation is “how come BK3K got so excited and “reinvigorated” about Eden but not ghug”?

– Bona – a former Suspect of mine, and I’m still not sure how everyone else cleared them as quickly. But I have to give credit where it’s due, the FrankenPost and their zeroing in and starting the wagon on Eden worked.

** – actually these 2 are in Alphabetical order, and both their names start with a B :-p haha


Koala’s [Temporarily] Cleared List:

(6) rdrivera – I still do not have a different read on rdrivera from the last game. But rdrivera really spearheaded The Righteous Sinking of Eden – so they are the flip-side of their former Soulless-Koala-killing buddy lfischl in my mind.

(7) Bozo – Seems a lot more engaged in trying to solve the game vs last game at this point. The rationale for all their points make good sense, even the ones I disagree with (deferring Damo kill) or question (Chaqa/lfischl Unpairing). Relatively least suspect of all.


Special Category:

(*) Princess Neon – Confirmed Mafia President Eden really wanted us to talk more about her. Confirmed Townie brainbomb really wanted us not to. I know that Princess Neon herself says “it’s cool to discuss”, but that could be part of the mind-game (from either side’s POV). Personally, I’m just going to follow the Confirmed Townie advice and stay out of this.

[bozotheclown]

We know this mafia team like bussing, I think PE was voting for his teammates at various times D4, and Chaqa was bussing TFB.

I also think the mafia was trying to setup up a mis-kill of BK3K, which is why I think TFB voted for BK3K D4.

Here is evidence that the mafia was preparing for a mis-kill attempt of BK3K:

This is going to sound really pathetic...but I just don't know who the last three can be.

D1
Final Vote Count:
BunnyGo (9) brainbomb, Fluminator, Bonatog​ether, damo666, BK3K, TheFlyingBoat, KoalaAttack, lfischl, g​hug
Bonatogether (4) swordsman3003/Neon, President Eden, BunnyGo, Chaqa
TheFlyingBoat (2) bozotheclown, rdr​ivera2005

D2
Final Vote Count:
ghug (5) rdrivera2005, brainbomb, Presiden​t Eden, damo666, bozotheclown
damo666 (3) TheFlyingBoat, B​onatogether, ghug
President Eden (2) BK3K, lfischl
BK3K (1) KoalaAttack
KoalaAtt​ack (1) Chaqa

D3
FINAL VOTE COUNT

damo666 (10) - President Eden*, Chaqa*, TheFlyingBoat, Bonatogether, Rdrivera2005, BK3K*, brainbomb, KoalaAttack, Lfischl, bozotheclown

Chaqa (1) - Prncess Neon*

TheFlyingBoat (1) - Damo666

Like I look at this and I see the team based on the votes being something like ghug/chaqa/rdr/lfischl, but I don't fully like it. Will think on it more, but I am admittedly overwhelmed with 2 jobs rn and don't really feel confident in myself rn. I'll get over it soon prolly, but I don't know how I could have been wrong there.

So I've been starting at this and the bot like a hopeless soothsayer and honestly I don't think rdr or bozo bussed ghug. I still don't get why ghug didn't force the MK on damo and maybe even stretch for one after that. I just can't figure out who goes into the rdr slot. Like why did ghug feel like he had to leave the Bona wagon for Bunny when the result was fait accompli? I don't think it is Eden bussing and Neon is apparently town based on claims, so did ghug really flip to make 3 on the primary wagon and 1 on the counter?

If so ghug/chaqa/BK3K/lfischl makes sense?

Why not simply TFB, B3K, and Lfischl?

Or if not one of them, throw me into the mix as a backup, and I'll throw you in.

Correct. That’s why I was asking about narrowing the POE to four earlier

I think mine would be something like Chaqa, TFB, BK, and Rdr

lfischl could also have been a mis-kill target, or he could be mafia participating in trying to mis-kill BK3K.

[bozotheclown]

I also think PE tried to start a wagon on rdrivera D4 as an alternative to his teammates Chaqa and TFB, knowing Neon suspected rdrivera. PE had been voting for Chaqa and TFB, if either one was town he could have likely successfully pushed for a DK of either one.

I think Chaqa should be the D5 DK, while we still have the votes to override Neon, who I suspect the mafia will leave in the game if I am right about Chaqa.

[bozotheclown]

I am going to re-post some old posts since I do not have much time before EON.

[bozotheclown]

A TFB/PE/Chaqa mafia team would mean that lfischl and BK3K are the primary mis-kill targets, with PE testing today if a mis-kill of rdrivera is possible.

TFB/PE/lfischl is also possible, but I think lfischl's D2 vote for PE makes that less likely.

[bozotheclown]

You know my style isn't so much throwing out scumreads as it is voting for people who aren't townreads.

I've got you and Bozo in the town column based off the ghug wagon. Neon is presumptive Doc. Bona's effort seems town.

That left me with the pool I have, and I've had an ongoing suspicion of Lfishcl.

Koala I can't put my finger on completely. He alternates between scummy and town. But I don't want to vote today on him.

So basically right now I'd vote Lfischl, TFB, or B3K, but probably not Koala, Bona, or Rivera.

Is this the part where you and PE agree to vote for BK3K or lfischl?

[Bonatogether]

lol i lied

i like boat man, rd, bishkek

believe boat man not great

unsure on neon

[bozotheclown]

except rdrivera who voted for Boat

bozo's point is that he believes 3+ mafia voted for Bunny

Why did you leave the TFB wagon when he was in the lead, never to return?

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE ghug

Primarily because I still do not understand why BunnyGo moved up and TFB moved down in ghug's D1 scum reads before D1 EOD.

[bozotheclown]

Has anything lately made you reconsider your town reads?

I wanted you to read and analyze thousands of words.

Is there a reason you responded to tis question to damo?

Do you still think TFB is town because he said his D1 counter wagons were bad? TFB has tried to take enough credit for it that it seems like something he learned in mafia college.

[bozotheclown]

There seems to be a theory either I or TFB are scum.

If this is true TFB is scum.

Could someone who assumes I'm scum please put that on hold and assume the opposite and explain to me why TFB is then scum.

TIA

Bozo would probably be a good person to answer this.

ghug helped save TFB from getting mis-killed D1 despite listing TFB as one of his top scum reads.

[bozotheclown]

anyway, my serious answer is that bozo is lost in the sauce after damo dies, and they want him around ginning people up against me/tfb because they need whatever miskills they can get

and they didn't shoot me because enough of you one-man clown fiestas think i've been hard bussing my whole team all game so they think they can miskill me

You keep forgetting that you are not supposed to know TFB's alignment yet.

[bozotheclown]

anyway, my serious answer is that bozo is lost in the sauce after damo dies, and they want him around ginning people up against me/tfb because they need whatever miskills they can get

and they didn't shoot me because enough of you one-man clown fiestas think i've been hard bussing my whole team all game so they think they can miskill me

You keep forgetting that you are not supposed to know TFB's alignment yet.

If you are town, I would think that you would also consider that the mafia targeted a TFB voter.

[bozotheclown]

The wagon was me, you, bunny, and ghug.
I'm going to assume you don't find me, bunny, or yourself suspicious?

Right, so I guess that only leaves Ghug, but I don't feel like Ghug is scum. Maybe it was right but lacked traction because no scum would touch it?

okay this damo-ghug+2 lurkers or newbie+lurker set it islooking way more plausible to me rn

But yeah I feel really good about my damo+ghug+2 lurkers call

TFB did not do anything the entire D2 to indicate he suspected ghug was mafia after saying he thought ghug was town N1, but takes credit for his "call" that ghug was mafia 2 minutes before EOD.

[bozotheclown]

TFB did not do anything the entire D2 to indicate he suspected ghug was mafia after saying he thought ghug was town N1, but takes credit for his "call" that ghug was mafia 2 minutes before EOD.

yea I'll give you credit for the fact that he's trying very hard to steal my credit for the damo/ghug/2 lurkers theory and my argument for ghug

I can believe that he actually believes that as town though. tbh I kind of ignored it because I had a town prior on him and didn't want to start a shitfest with a townread lol.

I think ghug's D1 voting implicated TFB, and I would like him to be flipped before proceeding to look for mafia in lurkers.

[bozotheclown]

The consensus around the TFB/lfischl/BK3K/Chaqa POE makes me think there are 2 mis-kill targets in that group, and some distancing, so probably 2 of the 3 mafia as well. If that is the case, I am not sure which of Bonatogether, KoalaAttack, PE, and rdrivera would be the other mafia.

BK3K not participating in the mutual suspicion among TFB/lfischl/Chaqa may be an indication that he is one of the mis-kill targets. I don't think lfischl and Chaqa are likely mafia together, so maybe TFB/lfischl or TFB/Chaqa.