MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

were actuall at 7v2, i miscounted worcej in total count.

so 6v2 after night kill.

then miskill -> night kill puts us at 4v2

miskill > nk puts us at 2v2.

that's a KILO or a loss?

I think we have two safe miss kills, possibly 1

2v2 means mafia can force a tie and get an nk, so the game ends after a miskill at 4v2

[BK3K]

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

Thank you.

This makes a lot of sense. But I think one question worth asking is: what is the level of experience of your potential Mafia suspects?

I, for one, would have never thought about this kind of thing back during D1 if I were Mafia. Now, I know that myself and say BK3K are one one extreme end of the spectrum, and some ultra-experienced folks on another ... but what about the middle where most folks would tend to fall statistically?

at a certain point, nemo-level-4 becomes nemo-level-0

[Bonatogether]

also what happened to koalers?

This:

Awesome, thanks for sharing. Today, Mafia has benefited my work.

Speaking of which, I have about another hour before I go into another meeting galore, which will run through the EOD. And as fun as this is, I'm not un-minimizing the tab on a Zoom call with a customer.

So I have about 1 more hour to decide whether to just keep my vote parked on Chaqa in hopes of a late Chaqa-wagon tide rise, or shift it elsewhere. President Eden, lfischl, Bona are all Suspects. rdrivera is jumping the shark as Suspiciously-non-Suspect. TFB is the high-info flip, but so was Damo and we have fewer MKs left and I am extremely wary of repeating the mistake. Aaaaahhhh, later parts of Mafia are more & more stressful!

Then this:

OK I'm about to get dragged away and out of time.

Updated Suspect List:

(1) Chaqa
(2) President Eden
...
big gap
...
(3) lfischl
(4) Bono

TheFlyingBoat (4) bozotheclown Chaqa BK3K President Eden
President Eden (2) Bonatogether rdrivera2005
Chaqa (2) lfischl KoalaAttack
BK3K (1) TheFlyingBoat
rdrivera2005 (1) Princess Neon*

My top 2 suspects both have 2 votes currently. One of the votes against them is a vote by my other two weaker Suspects for each of them. And TFB has both my top 2 suspects voting for them.

No more sheeping. I stay on (1) Chaqa and encourage folks to vote on (2) President Eden if they don't believe the Chaqa case.

Good luck to fellow Townies, may the force be with you, catch some Mafias!

my question was in reference to how you got left out but ty

[rdrivera2005]

were actuall at 7v2, i miscounted worcej in total count.

so 6v2 after night kill.

then miskill -> night kill puts us at 4v2

miskill > nk puts us at 2v2.

that's a KILO or a loss?

I think we have two safe miss kills, possibly 1

2v2 means mafia can force a tie and get an nk, so the game ends after a miskill at 4v2

Yes, we still only have one miskill left, but the POE pool is becoming smaller.

[KoalaAttack]

were actuall at 7v2, i miscounted worcej in total count.

so 6v2 after night kill.

then miskill -> night kill puts us at 4v2

miskill > nk puts us at 2v2.

that's a KILO or a loss?

I think we have two safe miss kills, possibly 1

2v2 is auto-loss – Mafias just tie the vote and attempt NKs ad nausea

[Princess Neon]

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

Thank you.

This makes a lot of sense. But I think one question worth asking is: what is the level of experience of your potential Mafia suspects?

I, for one, would have never thought about this kind of thing back during D1 if I were Mafia. Now, I know that myself and say BK3K are one one extreme end of the spectrum, and some ultra-experienced folks on another ... but what about the middle where most folks would tend to fall statistically?

My experiences with these kind of wagon reads come from basically everywhere. All skill levels all players. It's a psychological thing but in a different form. It's definitely something I'm extremely cognizant of as mafia because people tend to overlook small details like this.

Like primarily these days I play on MU and the syndicate and occasionally Fortress of Lies. If you have experience on this sites you can judge for yourself the general skill level of the players.

[Bonatogether]

MU is cringe

[Bonatogether]

even their name is bovine

[Princess Neon]

MU is cringe

I disagree. A lot of the best players I've ever played with play on MU

[Bonatogether]

MU is cringe

I disagree. A lot of the best players I've ever played with play on MU

i played their twice and both games were cursed

[bozotheclown]

Random Facts from a GM:
Normally a president being killed isn’t a good thing. But then, sometimes it is.

PRESIDENT EDEN HAS DIED! He was a MAFIA GOON.

Night has begun. You may now post.

Woohoo! Great job everyone!!

This is a great flip – President Eden posted a metric ton of stuff that should be informative.

I am not caught up on all the posts and activity yet so far – just went straight to the EOD summary ... so I will go back and actually properly re-read the posts and see what happened with all the votes.

Off the top of my head before reading the rest – Bozo, I have been giving some thought to the Chaqa / lfischl whom I considered a Pairing but you made a good case for an Unpairing instead. Could you please share whether President Eden now being a confirmed Mafia affects that in your mind? I'll also give it some thought.

Also – just watching what brainbomb and Bozo did last night, I'm also thinking it's smart to share things towards the end of the Night, so remaining Mafia can't see what we are thinking. Is that right?

That was based on lfischl voting for Chaqa D1 when Chaqa was a wagon. I do not think I have seen lfischl do something like that to a teammate as mafia before, but it is possible. PE being mafia makes me think Chaqa is more likely mafia than lfischl, based on their interactions with PE and lfischl's vote for PE D2.

As for the second question, yes, it is common for players to make an "end of night" post for the reason you mentioned, and for things like reporting PR results.

[bozotheclown]

Random Facts from a GM:
Normally a president being killed isn’t a good thing. But then, sometimes it is.

PRESIDENT EDEN HAS DIED! He was a MAFIA GOON.

Night has begun. You may now post.

Woohoo! Great job everyone!!

This is a great flip – President Eden posted a metric ton of stuff that should be informative.

I am not caught up on all the posts and activity yet so far – just went straight to the EOD summary ... so I will go back and actually properly re-read the posts and see what happened with all the votes.

Off the top of my head before reading the rest – Bozo, I have been giving some thought to the Chaqa / lfischl whom I considered a Pairing but you made a good case for an Unpairing instead. Could you please share whether President Eden now being a confirmed Mafia affects that in your mind? I'll also give it some thought.

Also – just watching what brainbomb and Bozo did last night, I'm also thinking it's smart to share things towards the end of the Night, so remaining Mafia can't see what we are thinking. Is that right?

unless Neon has a doctor charge to use on herself, she's far and away the most likely night target already, no?

With the RB, the mafia can RB the doctor and safely NK anyone they want, although the mafia usually want to get rid of the clears.

[bozotheclown]

I mean if the doctor wasn't neon they would've CC'd by now, if neon is lying that leaves us 1 scum left

With the mafia having a RB, the real doctor (if not Neon) should stay hidden.

Bozo – the million dollar question is, would you normally expect lfischl to realize this on their own?

It feels like lfischl is trying to shop around for more Doctor-related info to me, but I have to admit that maybe I'm just Confirmation-Bias-reading into it at this point...

I don't think that question from lfischl is alignment indicative.

[bozotheclown]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

Chaqa was voting for TFB when ghug switched his vote to BunnyGo, and was 17 seconds away from ending on TFB. He probably switched back to Bonatogether to avoid the wagon distribution you are expecting. Most players here are aware of the expectations, so it is WIFOM.

[bozotheclown]

I frankly don't find Chaqas behavior yesterday wolfy at all.

Their progression on me made sense with how they were misinterpreting a post as me retracting my claim and when Eden pointed out that I had doubled down their view on me switched.

Their hard town read on Eden mimicked mine and since I know I am a town it makes sense that another town night have felt about Eden how I did.

Chaqa didn't treat Eden as a wolf partner Chaqa acted like a town who got played by a towny wolf. But if there is more than 1 wolf on Bona I would be legitimately questioning the point of Ghug switching at all.

I have laid out my evidence. You are free to ignore it.

I think the most likely explanation is that Chaqa and TFB are mafia and Chaqa and PE were OK bussing TFB, although PE tried other options first. Then at EOD when they couldn't get credit for the bus, they tested a lfischl wagon to see if they could pull any votes off of PE. Also, I thought the interaction between Chaqa and PE leading up to D4 EOD seemed like scum/scum, which is one of the reasons I voted for PE.

[KoalaAttack]

My experiences with these kind of wagon reads come from basically everywhere. All skill levels all players. It's a psychological thing but in a different form. It's definitely something I'm extremely cognizant of as mafia because people tend to overlook small details like this.

Like primarily these days I play on MU and the syndicate and occasionally Fortress of Lies. If you have experience on this sites you can judge for yourself the general skill level of the players.

This is way beyond me – this is my second-ever game of Mafia, the first one being M77 on here. So I'll take your word for it I guess :)

[bozotheclown]

Here is Chaqa's D4 progression on PE:

It's probably just Lfischl, BK3K, and like Eden or Bona.

I mean why else try to kill brain

Actually, this gives me the impression of a mafia team who would feel threatened by brain

yeah that makes more sense to me, but that doesn't point to anyone

It pointed to ghug, at least somewhat.

Maybe Eden, TFB, +1newbie?

I want to flip TFB to vindicate myself now if he flips scum lol

let's not

have you read my case on eden?

Yeah.

I'm torn on Eden. I think he's quite off his normal town game, but I also think that could just be because he doesn't have the time to focus into mafia? But if he's mafia, why does he move to bus ghug there? Ghug is a valuable mafia to be alive, and it's hard for me to imagine he does that when he would be an expected nightkill as soon as like tonight or tomorrow.

The Eden wagon is absolutely bonkers and should not be a thing.

You guys would be much better served voting me out.

[Princess Neon]

I frankly don't find Chaqas behavior yesterday wolfy at all.

Their progression on me made sense with how they were misinterpreting a post as me retracting my claim and when Eden pointed out that I had doubled down their view on me switched.

Their hard town read on Eden mimicked mine and since I know I am a town it makes sense that another town night have felt about Eden how I did.

Chaqa didn't treat Eden as a wolf partner Chaqa acted like a town who got played by a towny wolf. But if there is more than 1 wolf on Bona I would be legitimately questioning the point of Ghug switching at all.

I have laid out my evidence. You are free to ignore it.

I think the most likely explanation is that Chaqa and TFB are mafia and Chaqa and PE were OK bussing TFB, although PE tried other options first. Then at EOD when they couldn't get credit for the bus, they tested a lfischl wagon to see if they could pull any votes off of PE. Also, I thought the interaction between Chaqa and PE leading up to D4 EOD seemed like scum/scum, which is one of the reasons I voted for PE.

I think this is excessively unlikely frankly. But I've been wrong before.

[bozotheclown]

My experiences with these kind of wagon reads come from basically everywhere. All skill levels all players. It's a psychological thing but in a different form. It's definitely something I'm extremely cognizant of as mafia because people tend to overlook small details like this.

Like primarily these days I play on MU and the syndicate and occasionally Fortress of Lies. If you have experience on this sites you can judge for yourself the general skill level of the players.

This is way beyond me – this is my second-ever game of Mafia, the first one being M77 on here. So I'll take your word for it I guess :)

Wagon distribution is something to consider, but I would not use it to rule anything out. I remember a game here where I was mafia on a team of 4 where we had 3 votes D1 on the second wagon. It is common to look for a distributed mafia team, so there is not much incentive for mafia to spread out their votes.

[Chaqa]

I'm playing in a one-shot today so I'm not going to be posting at EoN, but I think it unlikely I'm the target. I hope everyone who might be killed posts their thoughts. I feel good about our odds going forward though.