MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[Jamiet99uk]

Phase has ended

PLEASE HOLD

[Jamiet99uk]

It was a surprisingly quiet night in the Green Hill Zone.


DAY 2 HAS BEGUN

YOU MAY NOW POST

YOU HAVE 48 HOURS

[worcej]

Wait, what?

[teacher2]

Scum could have gambited and not killed. I would say we should all hypo both cop and doc and say what we did. But I need to think about it and am about to get in my rental car.

[worcej]

Also, and somewhat shocked right now, are we not getting an extension on the day due to the planned server DT?

[teacher2]

So I do think the dual hypo is a good plan. Justify both moves too. But don’t do it until tomorrow real life so we can test the theory. Phil in particular since I see you on. I will write up my theory thoughts after 10pm tonight NY time.

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, and somewhat shocked right now, are we not getting an extension on the day due to the planned server DT?

GM NOTE

IT IS POSSIBLE that this phase will be extended for the downtime. I am consulting the site admins. This will be confirmed before the 24h mark.

[phil_a_s]

teacher2, are you saying to do hypo later, or are you reminding me to do hypo?

[teacher2]

I Was asking you to independently evaluate the theory just to check me and see if it makes sense. This is somewhat seat of the pants while getting to my inlaws house.

[worcej]

@phil - I took it as 'do it later'

[phil_a_s]

Ah. Well, I'm not entirely sure I understand the concept, and it is also past midnight here, so my brain isn't quite working properly. I understand cop hypo. How would you doc hypo?

I'm going to save my hypos for tomorrow, either way. Expect me in 10 hours or so.

[sheepsaysmeep]

i was roleblocked

[sheepsaysmeep]

##VOTE BancroftS

[sheepsaysmeep]

hypo claiming doc would just be just like hypo claiming doc except the doc's target is only an inno 90% of the time

[teacher2]

So there was no night death. There are two options:

1. Scum gambited to have no night kill. Extremely unlikely in this setup, but possible. Would ordinarily mean that they are both fairly unsuspected, and that they think they can use the WIFOMing to reveal a power role due to the surprise or some misplay as a result of their actions.

2. We in fact have a doctor, and they saved someone. The far more likely scenario (but still incredibly low odds in general, so well done Doc if so).

Because 1 is an option (however unlikely), I think we should still hypo cop just in case it is in fact the case, and scum's strategy succeeds in revealing the PR. That way, if cop dies tonight, we can at least have one knowntown and the knowledge that scum is likely in a weird spot.

Because option 2 is more likely, hypoing Doctor is helpful - only scum and doctor know who was actually targeted. Moreover, scum probably cant know if doctor self-saved or saved somewhere else. So if scum wants to be able to counterclaim a doctor later, they have to decide whether to reveal their real target, claim a self-save, or go weird. However it plays out, it helps sort quite a bit of the board.

Finally, and regardless, we should all counterclaim sheep with a roleblock if we were roleblocked. If there is no CC, that does not town-clear sheep but is very important data.

Basically, I would like the board to respond sometime tomorrow with a hypo inno, a hypo save, and a rb/not RB claim. I dont see any downside to this, but see that it forces some strategic calls that scum did not expect, cant talk about, and could potentially reveal scum or add to known towns.

[teacher2]

Modeling a hypo just because:

1. I investigated sheep and he is innocent. [Optional explanation: I chose him because I always have difficulty reading his playstyle and so wanted to solve mechanically].

2. I saved myself. [Optional: Because I was widely townread and the most active town].

3. I was not roleblocked.

[sheepsaysmeep]

actually scratch that

hypo doc claiming is stupid

if the doc has an inno (the doc saved someone) then the mafia know who the real doc targeted

[teacher2]

True, in that circumstance it outs the doc. But if the doc has an inno, it also means he can save himself tonight (and cant save the inno).

[teacher2]

By the way as an aside, I will be far less active the next couple days as I won’t be at work/next to a desktop.

[teacher2]

True, in that circumstance it outs the doc. But if the doc has an inno, it also means he can save himself tonight (and cant save the inno).

to be clear I view this as a positive outcome and part of the reason for doing it. Scum either has to become part of a narrow pool of claimants or doctor can be knowntown.