M 90: Shootout at the Pretty Good Corral

[bozotheclown]

The interaction of Jamie and sweetandcool at the beginning of D3 did not do anything to reduce my suspicion of them.

[rdrivera2005]

Very confident Towncore:

damo
RHK

These players have been solving in a way I would not expect scum. If either of them are Mafia then great acting job.

Probably Town:

Jamiet

I am well lauded as having 100% accuracy in assessing Jamiet's alignment. I'm too tired to recall why he is Town. But one big reason is that his reaction to Balki D1 seemed to not come from being teammates. If they were teammates, Jamiet would have deathtunneled Balki D1 and that absolutely did not happen.

Unsure:

Bunny
lfisch
rdr

I actually have some good vibes on rdr. But I have thought so little about these players that I can't say confidently where they are.

Scum:

Pirate
Flav
Bozo

I have covered why Pirate is Mafia. Essentially, his lurking does not match his usual Town meta when "too busy". He has shown nuance this game that shows he is reading the thread. This is contradictory of the persona he has crafted, where he claims he is too busy and overwhelmed.

I looked at Flav's last game and I think he has done a good acting job this game.

He does play this way, critiquing players reads and play. Focusing on setup stuff. Totally freaking out about obvious jokes, etc.

The difference is that he has dialed up these qualities to 11. This game he is VERY focused on heckling, and has almost exclusively focused everything but forming authentic reads of players.

If you read through M89 you will see how much less focused he is on heckling and how he actually does develop reads in that game. Though yes, it turns out it is normal for him to pounce on little insignificant things and then treat them like they are important (like Fox's spreadsheet).

Bozo is the one player I could be wrong about. But his play today seems extremely focused on controlling Town and attempting to force a MK. He protects his teammate, Pirate by assuming the RB means Pirate is Town. He tries to focus us on brainbomb's incorrect reads to MK Jamiet or sweetandcool.

I also think he took that opportunity N1 to further pit me against Bunny, and hopefully the rest of Town, by suggesting Bunny was trying to set me up for a MK when Bunny said how awful of a team player I was.

Mafia must be on the verge of winning, so they are pulling all the stops by claiming RB and Lawman. It's easy to imagine they thought Town would likely follow meta by not flipping the RB or the Lawman claim today. I think Bozo can get away with this play because in reality he does have a gun, it's just for Mafia. I think their plan today was to either MK Jamiet or sweetandcool, or eventually push lurkers so long as it's not Pirate.

Sweet, I can see this scenario with Bozo power wolfing, but honestly if this is the case scum already won, so I am disregarding this possibility and playing considering Bozo is town with a gun.

Wait, why would Mafia have already won?

Even if we have no active lawmen, and if scum Bozo has a gun, if we DK Mafia, then it is 6-2, then after NK 5-2.

So we have a chance. Though yeah, Town Bozo who shoots with accuracy would be a boon for Town.

But in that scenario, Bozos reads seem pretty off so that might actually be worse than Mafia Bozo.

Not won immediately but won in the long run. I can't see a future Bozo get DKed before me or even you.

But I have been pessimistic about toen chances since start, this setup is heavily scumsided IMHO.

[sweetandcool]

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera
lfischl: Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdrivera
kingofthepirates: Flavius, lfischl, ?
Flavius: sweetandcool, rdrivera, Jamie

It seems that kingofthepirates and lfischl are going to get DKed by town at some point. I am not convinced they are not the mafia's mis-kill targets, but if either one is mafia, they are likely getting bussed.

It looks like the votes are locked in and kingofthepirates is going to be the D3 DK, so I think the best use of the gun is to target lfischl to accelerate the town DKs. If they are both town, I think town is going to lose, so hopefully one is mafia and town still has a chance D4.

I have ordered lfischl as the gun target.

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

[bozotheclown]

I know it has a lot of confirmation bias involved but Flavius moving his vote to King when lfischl get in the lead looks so like a scum push to a win today.

But then I see Demon reason to not vote lfischl and it looks so weird I start to think I might be wrong on him.

Anyway, at this point only someone changing from King to lfischl affects the final result.

If we are in KILO (Mafia has two guns) then they have the luxury to jump onto lfischl at the last moment.

Flav has positioned himself to reasonably jump to lfisch, even if he currently is on Pirate. Same with Bozo, who mentions offhand to kill lfisch if everyone really wants to kill a lurker.

Mafia is just trying to steal our resolve by bussing. Pirate is the right choice!

Keep this in mind if kingofthepirates is town and lfischl is mafia.

[rdrivera2005]

I know it has a lot of confirmation bias involved but Flavius moving his vote to King when lfischl get in the lead looks so like a scum push to a win today.

But then I see Demon reason to not vote lfischl and it looks so weird I start to think I might be wrong on him.

Anyway, at this point only someone changing from King to lfischl affects the final result.

If we are in KILO (Mafia has two guns) then they have the luxury to jump onto lfischl at the last moment.

Flav has positioned himself to reasonably jump to lfisch, even if he currently is on Pirate. Same with Bozo, who mentions offhand to kill lfisch if everyone really wants to kill a lurker.

Mafia is just trying to steal our resolve by bussing. Pirate is the right choice!

Well, seems both will die. But I can easily see a fisch and Flav team here.

[bozotheclown]

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera
lfischl: Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdrivera
kingofthepirates: Flavius, lfischl, ?
Flavius: sweetandcool, rdrivera, Jamie

It seems that kingofthepirates and lfischl are going to get DKed by town at some point. I am not convinced they are not the mafia's mis-kill targets, but if either one is mafia, they are likely getting bussed.

It looks like the votes are locked in and kingofthepirates is going to be the D3 DK, so I think the best use of the gun is to target lfischl to accelerate the town DKs. If they are both town, I think town is going to lose, so hopefully one is mafia and town still has a chance D4.

I have ordered lfischl as the gun target.

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

How do you know I am really going to target lfischl if I am mafia?

[rdrivera2005]

It seems that kingofthepirates and lfischl are going to get DKed by town at some point. I am not convinced they are not the mafia's mis-kill targets, but if either one is mafia, they are likely getting bussed.

It looks like the votes are locked in and kingofthepirates is going to be the D3 DK, so I think the best use of the gun is to target lfischl to accelerate the town DKs. If they are both town, I think town is going to lose, so hopefully one is mafia and town still has a chance D4.

I have ordered lfischl as the gun target.

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

How do you know I am really going to target lfischl if I am mafia?

I consider this idea, it could make sense if fisch is scum with a D4 gun, but why announce it anyway?

[sweetandcool]

It seems that kingofthepirates and lfischl are going to get DKed by town at some point. I am not convinced they are not the mafia's mis-kill targets, but if either one is mafia, they are likely getting bussed.

It looks like the votes are locked in and kingofthepirates is going to be the D3 DK, so I think the best use of the gun is to target lfischl to accelerate the town DKs. If they are both town, I think town is going to lose, so hopefully one is mafia and town still has a chance D4.

I have ordered lfischl as the gun target.

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

How do you know I am really going to target lfischl if I am mafia?

If you are Mafia, then we will get your teammate Pirate, so it doesn't matter who you actually shoot.

[bozotheclown]

If lfischl is mafia, I would look at damo closely. damo did not add lfischl to his scum reads until D3. damo's voting has also been very static, he has not voted for anyone other than kingofthepirates since D1.

[dargorygel]

#GM NOTIFICATIONS

John Wesley Harding

The son of a Methodist preacher, he was named after the founder of the Methodist faith. When he was only 14 years old, he stabbed a boy for taunting him. A year later, he was playfully wrestling with an ex-slave named Mage. He scratched Mage’s face, and the next day, Mage hid on a path and attacked Hardin in retaliation. Hardin fired three warning shots, but when Mage didn’t back off, Hardin was forced to shoot him in self-defense. Mage died as a result. Since many of the Texas State Police were themselves former slaves, and Hardin was a “Johnny Reb”, he didn’t stand a chance of a fair trial. He went into hiding and was warned by his brother when the police found out where he was. He did not run, but stayed and fought instead. He killed all three policemen and evaded the law. Several arrests and escapes later, he ended up in Abilene, Kansas, where he befriended “Wild Bill” Hickok. While in Abilene, he stayed at the American House Hotel. When the stranger in the next room wouldn’t stop snoring, he fired a gun into the ceiling twice. The first shot woke the man up, and the second one killed him. Hardin made his escape out of the window and left for Texas. Many skirmishes with the law followed, and he was finally captured, convicted, and went to jail for seventeen years. During his time incarcerated, he finished his law degree and practiced as a lawyer upon his release. He died when he was shot in the back of the head while playing dice.

VOTE COUNT
kingofthepirates (5) damo, sweet, Bunny, lfi, Flav
lfischl (3) kotp, rdr, Jamie
Flav (1) Demon
Jamiet99uk (1) bozo

15 more minutes
KingofthePirates has the most votes

[bozotheclown]

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

How do you know I am really going to target lfischl if I am mafia?

If you are Mafia, then we will get your teammate Pirate, so it doesn't matter who you actually shoot.

I considered targeting you because, even though I am not opposed to town fake claiming when there is a good reason, this game you have fake claimed everything that is possible, including things that are more likely to confuse town than the mafia, and I suspect that you would only do that as mafia.

[FlaviusAetius]

I didnt get a chance to read the rest oof will start catching up now

[Jamiet99uk]

The football is over, England beat the Netherlands 2-1.

[Jamiet99uk]

If lfischl is mafia, I would look at damo closely. damo did not add lfischl to his scum reads until D3. damo's voting has also been very static, he has not voted for anyone other than kingofthepirates since D1.

Hmm you're right, that's interesting. Very static indeed from Damo.

[Jamiet99uk]

I didnt get a chance to read the rest oof will start catching up now

You have two minutes.

[Jamiet99uk]

Excellent, now players on lfisch can jump onto a new wagon.

If Bozo is scum, which I believe, then he has made a mistake here by freeing us from fisch.

Of course, he could also be cleverly calling a shot on a teammate, but I think he just wants us to believe that through WIFOM.

If he is Town, I will confess this is helpful as well.

How do you know I am really going to target lfischl if I am mafia?

I consider this idea, it could make sense if fisch is scum with a D4 gun, but why announce it anyway?

We discussed this. It is so that, just in case there is another town with a gun active, they can shoot someone else and not accidentally waste a town shot by having two town shoot the same person.

[FlaviusAetius]

Flavius, this is an opinion you shared multiple times last game:

"Oh ok, but my point still stands, I will TARGET anyone who doesnt talk for a prolonged period of time, I understand reasons to do this in the beginning, but it should change..."

Does that mean you are currently scumreading Pirate and lfisch?

YES. I think one mafia is a lurker so I started form that assumption and chose the one that is the MOST sus

[dargorygel]

+@+@+@+ PLEASE HOLD@+@+@+
DO NOT POST
EVEN IF YOU ARE SLEEPY

Vote Count Officially Coming Soon

[FlaviusAetius]

I didnt get a chance to read the rest oof will start catching up now

You have two minutes.

So? The votes arent changing today and no one has made an attempt to even make that happen so Im catching up to see wht I can learn from the day with the perspective of the outcome of the day its perfect

[dargorygel]

VOTE COUNT
kingofthepirates (5) damo, sweet, Bunny, lfi, Flav
lfischl (3) kotp, rdr, Jamie
Flav (1) Demon
Jamiet99uk (1) bozo

I am not going to wait the traditional ten minutes.
I will push refresh for a few moments... then move on.

DM or DISCORD me if I missed something.