MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

Town PRs are 100% time more likely to be both converted or night-killed.

This is silly and anyone who doesn't see goldie is squirming under pressure is crazy.

I'm absolutely convinced he isn't the BH.

[Chaqa]

Sadly...if this hypothesis is correct any of the players who have gone silent would be really really good recruits. INCLUDING MY WIFE!! GORRAM IT GOLD, if you laid your filthy reaver hands on her, I'll tear you apart!

Why does Bunny need to continuously point out that he has a wife? Is this to prove his alignment of some sort? More to the point then. Do you have children together too?

He is taking the flavor to heart. His character and Tom's are married within the context of the show.

[Chaqa]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

Claiming PR makes a NK more likely, not less.
Fakeclaiming PR makes a lynch almost inevitable.
The only people overly concerned with being reavered are people who hate playing scum (like myself), that does not seem to be the case with you from what you've been saying. And it is unclear why you would think that claiming PR would make you less vulnerable to being reavered.

So no, claiming PR makes very little sense for BH.

These are the obvious fakeclaims:

Roleblocker fakeclaims Companion
Investigator fakeclaims Reader
Agent fakeclaims VT
BH fakeclaims VT
RP fakeclaims something that won't get them lynched D1 so they have time to recruit. With the D1 claims of PR/VT that we did, this was claiming PR, because the idea was that we would lynch in the VT pool (as we did).

That's the obvious. The obvious is not always what happens, but so far there's no reason to suspect it is not what happened.

Ah, good, xorxes also called goldie out for his silly reasoning.

I agree with your obvious fake-claim reasoning. RB/Companion is the stupid obvious one. Investigator/Reader is a little more iffy - Investigator could also claim Doctor. Agent/BH as VT makes sense.

Reaper Prime is tricky... as I said, if I were RP, I would probably claim Doctor, but maybe VT as well.

It seems safe to assume Kalel is the Roleblocker and ND is actually the backup Companion as he claimed (forgettign Reaver shenanigans for the moment). This leaves:

Goldie -> Investigator/Reaper Prime/Bounty Hunter
worcej -> Bounty Hunter/Reaper Prime/Investigator
{EMC/Chaqa/Fox/Bozo} -> Agent/Bounty Hunter

This is kinda where I'm thinking. We can hopefully have Damo take another crack at scanning within the VT group - mafia are unlikely to kill him if only their Agent is within that group, they would probably rather focus on players who can catch them (like they did with Dargo).

To me that says we should really go for an information lynch in Goldie or worcej, though I don't see anything necessarily wrong with lynching Kalel as confirmed Alliance scum.

[teacon7]

Fwiw @Kalel we'd all benefit if you could give us some insights as to the quality of press in the QT. Is anyone using strange characters or non English words? Unless you want to post a sanitized version of QT press, maybe give us some observations. Is anyone in the QT acting weird? What else should we look for in press? You especially should look at of 27-32 and comment. Thanks.

Won't re-post the QT (or give up names), but actually yes, some very weird posts, from smart/usually belligerent players. The loud ones in QT are the quiet ones here and visa versa.

Yeahhh I didn't think you were gonna paste the QT. Worth a try though. No, I'm not going to scumhunt based on belligerence/intelligence here.

My thought here is that we should collaborate to try to identify posting patterns... there's gotta be a way to compare notes or something? The reaver press rules seem like they're designed to be a liability we could exploit. Example: are you noticing any consistent themes in weirdness between the QT and pg 27-32 and the QT? Are you willing to post an analysis?

[teacon7]

It is a quiet night. A peaceful night, where folk are free to rest and dream of a better life.

What a peaceful way to wake up. :)

https://jokeronthesofa.files.wordpress. ... lNaked.jpg
[warning]

[teacon7]

@darg - you're fine. Good reasoning. wtg.

@dr. jamie - wtg!

[teacon7]

If we're really wanting to go all in on goldfinger being RP (and not successfully spreading night 1), he can be commuted to prevent the spread more...

Commuting the scum makes sense when it removes important power from the board.

commuting reaver1!goldfinger makes sense. As does commuting roleblocker!kalel. imo that's a purely offensive use of the commuter power, and should be saved until we know more for certain of what roles everyone is. So IFF you're convinced he's RP, then that's the way to go. I'm not convinced it's him though - why would RP cc doc? Wouldn't he get caught when he couldn't save someone?

[teacon7]

The only way to have a chance of not having 3 reavers out there is to kill Goldie today.

This might be kalel with wifom. But it makes it sound like they're not on the same team.

Yes, Chaqa just keep parroting the confirmed scum.

Okay, let me break it down.

Scenario 1: I am RP. You can prevent more reavers from forming by roleblocking me. Kalel said he roleblocked me, so I could not recruit someone else. If you lynch me, the new reaver infects someone else. Or a NK goes through. I'm a little fuzzy on the rules. Keep me alive, and my faction cannot NK AND you force Kalel to keep roleblocking me. Double win.

Scenario 2: I am not RP. You gain literally nothing from killing me, because town doesn't have to kill me to win. I have zero bounties collected, so I am not a threat.

Calmly consider this, and then ##vote worcej

Scenario 3: Confirmed scum kalel employs wifom to try to save your life...?

[teacon7]

@bunny - that's actually a decent idea. Worth testing, at least. It'd be easy enough for the GM to enforce, and restrictive enough to allow for finding them. Sorry for the doyle-ist analysis, but that'd gotta be a factor in figuring out posting patterns.

not much later: ...okay that was a bit spammy.

Well, you matched the page number counting pregame posts or not. Thanks again for being a sport about this.

Does meeting the page count matter, or not-exceeding it? How many posts did he have when the rule vio happened?

...How would posts in a reaver-compromised maf QT affect reaver postcount rules? Maybe this is not the way. The bot doesn't count posts in the QT.

[teacon7]

Why does Bunny need to continuously point out that he has a wife? Is this to prove his alignment of some sort? More to the point then. Do you have children together too?

It's flavor. You have to watch the show to understand. That's how the pilot character is in the show. He's doing a decent job of mimicking the character's feel.

[xorxes]

Bunny, when you quote a vote, does that mean you're now voting for worcej?

So, forgive me if my memory is wrong, but Tem was a VT scan, right? That leaves ND, bozo, Foxcastle, Chaqa and emc.

Assuming worcej is not RP (though he could be, which is why my vote is on him), that means one out of those 5 is the RP. Tem could always be agent, but we're hunting RP here. ND I've been getting straight town vibes from, but he's been oddly quiet of late. bozo I am on the fence with, I just have trouble reading his reactions, but I'll lean townier than not. Foxcastle is almost impossible to get a read on due to low engagement. emc has fluctuated between posting nonsense and then ever since I criticized him for it he's dropped completely off radar. And Chaqa jumped all over my CC like hotcakes as soon as I made it. The scum agent would have wanted to push as hard as they could for the CC battle that *wasn't* between their guys. So he's more scum team 1 in my eyes for that reason.

That means emc is my best guess for RP currently. I could entertain Foxcastle as well.

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

Worcej did not have a scan on Tem at the time he claimed to have one. Investigator can only scan at night, and he claimed before EON.

If worcej knew Tem would scan as VT it's because Tem is the Agent. Otherwise he was guessing.

[bozotheclown]

Bunny, when you quote a vote, does that mean you're now voting for worcej?

So, forgive me if my memory is wrong, but Tem was a VT scan, right? That leaves ND, bozo, Foxcastle, Chaqa and emc.

Assuming worcej is not RP (though he could be, which is why my vote is on him), that means one out of those 5 is the RP. Tem could always be agent, but we're hunting RP here. ND I've been getting straight town vibes from, but he's been oddly quiet of late. bozo I am on the fence with, I just have trouble reading his reactions, but I'll lean townier than not. Foxcastle is almost impossible to get a read on due to low engagement. emc has fluctuated between posting nonsense and then ever since I criticized him for it he's dropped completely off radar. And Chaqa jumped all over my CC like hotcakes as soon as I made it. The scum agent would have wanted to push as hard as they could for the CC battle that *wasn't* between their guys. So he's more scum team 1 in my eyes for that reason.

That means emc is my best guess for RP currently. I could entertain Foxcastle as well.

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

Worcej did not have a scan on Tem at the time he claimed to have one. Investigator can only scan at night, and he claimed before EON.

If worcej knew Tem would scan as VT it's because Tem is the Agent. Otherwise he was guessing.

Or worcej received his N1 scan result early the same way damo received his D1 scan result early.

[Chaqa]

Bunny, when you quote a vote, does that mean you're now voting for worcej?

So, forgive me if my memory is wrong, but Tem was a VT scan, right? That leaves ND, bozo, Foxcastle, Chaqa and emc.

Assuming worcej is not RP (though he could be, which is why my vote is on him), that means one out of those 5 is the RP. Tem could always be agent, but we're hunting RP here. ND I've been getting straight town vibes from, but he's been oddly quiet of late. bozo I am on the fence with, I just have trouble reading his reactions, but I'll lean townier than not. Foxcastle is almost impossible to get a read on due to low engagement. emc has fluctuated between posting nonsense and then ever since I criticized him for it he's dropped completely off radar. And Chaqa jumped all over my CC like hotcakes as soon as I made it. The scum agent would have wanted to push as hard as they could for the CC battle that *wasn't* between their guys. So he's more scum team 1 in my eyes for that reason.

That means emc is my best guess for RP currently. I could entertain Foxcastle as well.

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

Worcej did not have a scan on Tem at the time he claimed to have one. Investigator can only scan at night, and he claimed before EON.

If worcej knew Tem would scan as VT it's because Tem is the Agent. Otherwise he was guessing.

Maybe:
worcej (Investigator)
Tem (Agent)
Goldie (RP)
Kalel (Roleblocker)

With BH in: EMC, Fox, Bozo then?

[teacon7]

##vote kalel

[Chaqa]

I get Kalel is confirmed scum, so he's not a bad lynch per se

But is anyone else just dying to have more information to work with?

Maybe it's just me. It feels like I'm the lone VT in a land of confirmed PRs...

[xorxes]

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

Claiming PR makes a NK more likely, not less.
Fakeclaiming PR makes a lynch almost inevitable.
The only people overly concerned with being reavered are people who hate playing scum (like myself), that does not seem to be the case with you from what you've been saying. And it is unclear why you would think that claiming PR would make you less vulnerable to being reavered.

So no, claiming PR makes very little sense for BH.

These are the obvious fakeclaims:

Roleblocker fakeclaims Companion
Investigator fakeclaims Reader
Agent fakeclaims VT
BH fakeclaims VT
RP fakeclaims something that won't get them lynched D1 so they have time to recruit. With the D1 claims of PR/VT that we did, this was claiming PR, because the idea was that we would lynch in the VT pool (as we did).

That's the obvious. The obvious is not always what happens, but so far there's no reason to suspect it is not what happened.

Ah, good, xorxes also called goldie out for his silly reasoning.

I agree with your obvious fake-claim reasoning. RB/Companion is the stupid obvious one. Investigator/Reader is a little more iffy - Investigator could also claim Doctor. Agent/BH as VT makes sense.

Reaper Prime is tricky... as I said, if I were RP, I would probably claim Doctor, but maybe VT as well.

It seems safe to assume Kalel is the Roleblocker and ND is actually the backup Companion as he claimed (forgettign Reaver shenanigans for the moment). This leaves:

Goldie -> Investigator/Reaper Prime/Bounty Hunter
worcej -> Bounty Hunter/Reaper Prime/Investigator
{EMC/Chaqa/Fox/Bozo} -> Agent/Bounty Hunter

This is kinda where I'm thinking. We can hopefully have Damo take another crack at scanning within the VT group - mafia are unlikely to kill him if only their Agent is within that group, they would probably rather focus on players who can catch them (like they did with Dargo).

To me that says we should really go for an information lynch in Goldie or worcej, though I don't see anything necessarily wrong with lynching Kalel as confirmed Alliance scum.

What information do we gain by lynching goldie?

If we're correct that he is RP, how do we prevent Reaver2 from recruiting Reaver3 on N3?

Damo is not the only PR that the roleblocker can mess with. If he roleblocked me and dargo had not watched me, I would be under suspicion of being reavered.

If he roleblocks dargo, we lose important info.

If he roleblocks Jamie or Tom, we lose protection.

Why don't you care about any of this?

[xorxes]

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

Worcej did not have a scan on Tem at the time he claimed to have one. Investigator can only scan at night, and he claimed before EON.

If worcej knew Tem would scan as VT it's because Tem is the Agent. Otherwise he was guessing.

Maybe:
worcej (Investigator)
Tem (Agent)
Goldie (RP)
Kalel (Roleblocker)

With BH in: EMC, Fox, Bozo then?

Bingo!

[dargorygel]

I think Goldie is RP. He's squirming skillfully, but pinning him down and hoping we're right seems unnecessary. The M1 team can't change the game circumstances. RP can. Now obviously, if the rp is pinned, he can't change anything. But while I am confident that Goldie Reaves, we can't be sure till he's dead. If we are wrong, the secret reaver team grows every night.

Kill the vermin.

[xorxes]

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

Worcej did not have a scan on Tem at the time he claimed to have one. Investigator can only scan at night, and he claimed before EON.

If worcej knew Tem would scan as VT it's because Tem is the Agent. Otherwise he was guessing.

Or worcej received his N1 scan result early the same way damo received his D1 scan result early.

But then he would have been aware that that was a mistake, like damo was.

[xorxes]

I think Goldie is RP. He's squirming skillfully, but pinning him down and hoping we're right seems unnecessary. The M1 team can't change the game circumstances. RP can. Now obviously, if the rp is pinned, he can't change anything. But while I am confident that Goldie Reaves, we can't be sure till he's dead. If we are wrong, the secret reaver team grows every night.

Kill the vermin.

No, if we are wrong, Reavers are already 3, and now they start killing. Killing goldie before Kalel does not help us.

If we are right, we should not kill him until we know who reaver2 is. We can stop them from recruiting anyone else only if we know who they are first.