N1: brainbomb, "RB" Jamiet/ghug
N2: ghug, No RB
N3: damo, RB Sparta
N4: Sparta, RB Bunny
I choose to believe Jamiet was RB by brainbomb, ghug by Mafia. Obviously there is some chance that Jamiet is lying Mafia, but that type of tinfoiling should probably be reserved for F3 if we even make it to that point.
Now, N2 they decide to kill ghug and reserve RB. Mafia would be crazy to not hunt for Clerk, so for some reason, after ghug was RB, they decide he is likely Clerk. This implies that they either saw absolutely nothing in thread suggesting a scan, implying the Clerk was RB and was either ghug or Jamiet.
Hmmmm, so would that imply that ghug's reads were great and Jamiet's were "bad"? And after ghug flipped VT, why did they abandon the plan to continue on by flipping Jamiet? I suppose the answer would probably be that damo made for a convincing Clerk D3.
Okay, then why did Mafia not return to flipping Jamiet N4? I suppose by then Jamiet's contributions must have convinced them he wasn't Clerk. So why RB Sparta N3? And does the NK of Sparta again imply Mafia couldn't find any scan crumbs and so just hoped their RB hit Clerk?
Unfortunately, the loss of the bot for D4/N4 could explain things. Scum would be unlikely to find anything without the bot, unless they found it in the moment. Probably they just NK Sparta because they didn't have a better idea.
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Helpful questions that should be answered:
1. How likely was it that ghug hit 2+ Mafia in his reads D2? Or managed to put out a (completely?) accurate Town list?
2. Who did Jamiet wrongly scum/town during D2?
3. Sparta must have displayed enough accuracy in their reads that Mafia thought there was a reasonable chance he was Clerk. What were those reads?
4. ???
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ANSWERS:
1. ghug Towns Food, Jamiet, Bunny early on, which is 3/3 correct. He also correctly Towns Sparta. He jabs Bozo with a light scumread (incorrect?!). Correctly Towns Bona. Scums Ham (50/50) and rdr (Correct). Supports Sparta's probably 100% correct meta analysis on Will. Pumps out a reads lists that probably 100% correctly places many players into the Town list (except Vecna unless Vecna happens to be Miller). Last notable thing is he strongly protests the Vecna wagon.
2. Jamiet Towns Bona (correctly). Incorrectly scums sweetandcool. Incorrectly scums LoW. Incorrectly scumreads damo. Correctly townreads ghug and Townreads Balki (50/50). Light scumread of Bozo (incorrect?!) and then a scumread of rdr (correct) that comes from absolutely nowhere (so I don't think Mafia would take it seriously one way or another).
Comparing Jamiet and ghug's D2 is like day and night. ghug displayed definite undeniable accuracy, and probably accuracy for certain players who have yet to flip. Jamiet didn't demonstrate very many reads D2, but his focus was heavily on incorrect scumreads (I sympathize here, just reading it again I still can't figure out how LoW wasn't Mafia).
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Given all of this information (plus the crumbs I saw from the Clerk), there seems to be some sort of case for Vecna being Miller.
ghug positively nails 6 Town reads. If Vecna is Miller then 7. If Pirate is Town (which I think) then 8! The remaining 6 players in his Null to Scum range include dead worcej and Town Bona.
So our scumpool is Vecna, Bozo, rdr, Ham, Balki. And maybe a tiny chance ghug was wrong about Pirate. 3 Mafia, 5 slots.
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Okay this post has gotten too long. Investigating question #3 in my next post.