MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[FlaviusAetius]

Actually, that's wrong because Jack already knows Tom and ND are male, so it goes from 4 in 12 to 3 in 6, correct? A third to a half.

I follow your numbers based on your assumptions, but I am not sure about the certainty of your assumptions. The commuter only commutes 3 nights, so we do not know if he has any commutes left. Also, Chaqa could still be mafia or the SK, in which case there would be another female VT unaccounted for. It is also unlikely all the mafia would claim male VT to counter claim only 3 male VTs, although that could possibly lower the odds of the SK killing a female, depending on what the female mafia claimed.

With all that said, even though there are a number of variables, I think you are right that the SK's chance of hitting a female N4 if the male VTs claim is not great, although it might be better than 50/50. I would not mind taking that chance for N4, but it could still backfire if the SK does hit a female.

I just realized, though, that if either purplecow or yavuzovic are female VTs, then Tom's test and/or yavuzovic "no PM VT" claim could hand the SK a female VT to kill N4 if we had the male VTs claim. For this reason I think we should not do that today.

exactly my point, another thing on yavu for being scum...im voting chaqa today though because my yavu case became weaker with tom being town though I still think yavu is scum, this just confirms more for me

also im pretty shocked you dont want to do a mass claim, so glad you come to the good side

[FlaviusAetius]

LOL I don't know what the case on him is, but yeah scum retreat from the thread all the time haha. wtf?

Especially scum Rdrivera, and only popping in back at EoD if he has to save himself

Boom right there is Chaqa defending rdrivera, defended Bob too, he has defended both of them, pretty sure the only one to do so

bump

[FlaviusAetius]

Sigh.

I rolled female VT, knew that female roles were dangerous to Jack, and came up with what I thought would be a very interesting and effective strategy for me to leverage an early death into information.

I had now way of knowing ND would be strong-crumbing Sherlock and then get targeted by everyone and their mother, turning the entire thing into a clusterfuck. Then on Day 2, I wanted to see if any mafia members showed their hand, but I TBH haven't examined it too closely yet and it probably caused more confusion than insight...

Regardless of everything, I do find this plausible and believable

Yea but the point still stands, that the plan Chaqa made there is no way you think of that before he claimed, and he claimed pretty early, that means this is was an after-the-fact thing, thats what makes me believe Chaqa is scum, and then getting people to go on Vapor, and also defending rdrivera, it seems pretty clear to me what he's doing and thats defending his teammates

bumpppppppppppp, btw I hate this max of 3 posts you can quote, someone should really change that

[FlaviusAetius]

No, I don't believe it.

##Vote Tom Bombadil

spicy

He did it at the end of the day, why would you not vote for whoever he said? You've been inactive this entire game, its pretty clear what you were trying to do...nd tom wasnt even a lynch candidate so why would he even do that if he was trying to be sneaky(he wasnt) and at the time theres no way you should of thought he was being sneaky either

bumppppppppppppppppppppppppp

[FlaviusAetius]

I think attempting to find the last of Team Moriarty is tough, but if I had to pick one person it would be Flavius.

uhhh why?

[FlaviusAetius]

Flav, when you're done catching up, your thoughts on RHK and Chaqa?

RHK case is weak, pointed out why, Chaqa case is strong, lets lynch

[FlaviusAetius]

I still prefer to lynch DemonRHK first to try to finish off the Moriarty team, purplecow can wait a day.

WAIT WHAT
We found a guranteed scum and you want to NOT lynch that scum? WHAT?

Well if we indeed get the last one on Team 1, we would have one less possible NK.

yea but at the time there was no gurantee, it was pretty clear we should lynch the guy who was...a guranteed scum kill..

[FlaviusAetius]

Public record note: bozo wants to lynch me over a confirmed red.

He makes sense though, even if I don't agree at the moment. This post only confirms that you are a scum, and likely the last member of your team.

:facedesk: what does this even mean yavu

[FlaviusAetius]

If everyone is not voting for purple, because we want to get the rest of Morirary team. Look at it like this;
We have a GURANTEED scum kill
versus a
POSSIBLE scum
Who would you pick? I am picking the GURANTEED scum kill, that doesnt mean we have to stop talking, doesnt mean we have to stop solving, all it means is that we have our votes at the RIGHT place

Flav,

Help me out. I'm caught up, but think I'm a bit lost. I thought Tom made it up? Did he now say he didn't? (Tom when you get on you can clarify too).
I thought it was a ruse... We don't have any clarity on Tom's role. Just that he's putting claims out there and taking them back (a couple of times?).
How is Purple a guaranteed scum?

I wasnt caught up

[FlaviusAetius]

Others have made the potential bussing argument already, so no point reiterating in length again. Perhaps you are indeed, that good and lucky with gut reads this game, but ehh

And just to make it clear - this is because I think you're on the experienced side, not stupid, and a self aware player. Your actions thus far have somewhat been contradictory. This is praise lol

Demon. Has. Not. Been. On. A. Lynch-wagon. This. Entire. Game. Except. For. One.
Which was FROSTWIND who was a TOWN player. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Get off the Demon wagon or make a better case people, because so far I see nothing nothing anddddddddddd nothing

[FlaviusAetius]

I have no idea, but I did not get a RB message this time.

then Hyde knows who jack is, thats not good

Hyde can forego his kill by targeting Jekyll. We've been over this like ten times before.

I see zero reason whatsoever to do that, he did not do that, you need to stop assuming that happened, because it didnt

[FlaviusAetius]

##VOTE DemonRHK

because of what bozo found, plus he was my second candidate for last Moriarty.

Unless someone convinces me we should gun for the other team first.

what did bozo find? did I miss it?

Here is what xorxes was referring to:

Raid night over. Another quick Ony + MC.

I find the J+H discussion interesting. Prior to any meaningful discussion I find myself in the claim and lynch camp, although maybe not D1.

So it seems there is an aggressively power scum team, and a utility powered scum team, then Hyde and Jack doing their shit.

Questions to open some discussion:

- Who does each player think is the more dangerous scum team on powers alone?

- What do people think of a Urchin claim D1? They would be able to confirm multiple roles at best, or hard force a power trade with scum team 1 at worst.


I find myself wary of rdr (Although I seem to always read him scum) over the mislabeling of the SK's wincon. I also don't like what I've seen of Bob so far. It's a shotgun of content spread with no intent or effect (And there were a lot of attempts in those few posts to be substantial)

In DemonRHK's first post of the game, and only post in the first 18 hours of the game, he mentions 2 players, rdrivera and BobMcBob, and scum reads them both. Either he was very insightful, very lucky, or was bussing his partners. I suspect he was bussing, especially considering he never ended up voting for either of them.

Ok guys here's the GRAND case on Demon, he scumread rdrivera and Bob in the beginning of the game...aka the INFAMOUS JOKE PHASE, great going, Im sure he SCUMREAD a lot of other people too...but no you dont want to mention that, wonder why
Ontop of that how about you look at the PERSON who has DIVERTED wagons away from rdrivera and bob, the one, the only Chaqa. Dont you think thats more scummy??

[FlaviusAetius]

You started off the game with a post that asked for merits of a town PR claim and (this part is new, but rest is consolidated from previous posts) scumreading the two dead scum so far. You then proceed to scumread Bionic for referencing the last game (not entirely invalid, but you are sort of skipping context of why he brought it up), frost for self vote, and bozo for asking about merits of a different town PR claim, lol. Regardless of bozo scumread validity, you hafta admit, calling out others for something you do yourself is only sexy when you own it. If not, it comes off as lack of self awareness or vague hypocrisy ;p

So in this case, calling out Frost for a suicide!vote is good. Bozo, not so much.

Im confused what your trying to say

I am saying, his first post was one that was partially fishing. It was asking a question that, despite being intended to further town discussion, would not actually do so because the answer does not require such. There is also the point that his first two scumreads do come off as potential bussing, or being extremely lucky with gut reads.

I am saying his day 1 and night 1 scumreads are reaching, weak, and hypocritical at points. None of them are strong by any perspective, nor are they taking into context or extended thought - surface level. They all come off as "off the top of my head, let's comment while skimming", rather than actual analysis. In other words, posts that one would expect from a newer player rather than an experienced one that he is, especially taking into concern the level and type of analysis he has oft displayed in the past.

He also seems to lack self awareness in some contradictory points, which does not paint him in a well light.

Have made it harsher and more explicit, should be enough for understanding now, yes? :D

Makes a lot more sense, thanks and GUESS WHAT, bozo thinks literally the exact same, just its what he is ACCUSING DEMON OF DOING :facedesk:
projection much?

[FlaviusAetius]

Holy fuck I'm gonna have to reword everything to be more aggressive so Flav can understand lmao

sorry that you don't talk clearly?

[FlaviusAetius]

Others have made the potential bussing argument already, so no point reiterating in length again. Perhaps you are indeed, that good and lucky with gut reads this game, but ehh

And just to make it clear - this is because I think you're on the experienced side, not stupid, and a self aware player. Your actions thus far have somewhat been contradictory. This is praise lol

Demon. Has. Not. Been. On. A. Lynch-wagon. This. Entire. Game. Except. For. One.
Which was FROSTWIND who was a TOWN player. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

It is heavily, heavily implied that RHK is more likely to be bussing than having a good first gutread. Further evidence in contradictory because he has not been on scum lynches. However, it being luck is a possibility that should not be excluded.

How can he be bussing if he hasnt?

[FlaviusAetius]

I have no clue whether Flav and Yav are caught up or not.

I assume they are not yet.

I love how in Flav's post literally right before yours it seems like he is.
##Vote Flav

I already explained this, further down, if I see my name mentioned Im going to respond, I do this all the time, its not something new, its not something Im trying to hide Im pretty sure I did it to this game, when responding to xorxes lol

[FlaviusAetius]

I waffle on Flav. Because I find the way he posts to be inherently untowny since it’s confusing to follow for everyone involved.

But he’s really good at talking and bad at listening. I think scum are better listeners just by being more careful on what they say.

Granted I don’t have the meta history some of you do on him.

meta is bad, please stop using it, its not going to help you solve anything, people can fake it so easily, its honestly a joke

[FlaviusAetius]

If Tom is not Sherlock, the real one should stay quiet. That may be obvious but...

WHAT
I wouldn't complain as long as Tom gives correct scans though.
Apart from joke, that's impossible and even if it is, Sherlock should claim now.

I think Bionic is correct. Some town points to him, as at this point, if Tom is not Sherlock the actual one should not claim until Tom is either NK'd or last member of Moriarty's team flips.

Why would you want a mafia member leading the town? Because atm Tom is just a townleader, this really makes no sense, and guess what? Its an EASY scum-kill too, if someone CC's Tom, and then connections can happen etc etc, there's literally no reason to delay

[FlaviusAetius]

So to get ahead of any ideas of mass claim....


I didn’t scan purple. It’s our job now to figure out the reactions. Three people knew I was lying because I was roleblocked. For what it’s worth, I got a towny reaction from purple from this. The sketchiest reaction is from DemonRHK who looks to be either coaching scumbuddies by saying “why weren’t you roleblocked” or just making a really bad comment as town.

didnt you also say though that you were not roleblocked, and if they already knew you were roleblocked, why would they even question it, that doesnt make much sense...I still think your sherlock but this was a silly idea to go after purplecow...

I never said anything about the roleblock. Go back and check it. The first person to mention the roleblock was RHK.

The reason I picked purple is because he was new, and may fall for something like this. I mean, I wasn’t going to trip up a savvy vet with this nonsense

Tom Bombadil
Day-4 47:13
page 129 / orig So awesome news. In fact, I did play a patented Tom Bombadil gambit and did not Cop scan rivera N1. I vanilla/non-vanilla scanned him and got non-vanilla and figured he was scum.

That means that tonight I was able to cop scan and got a GUILTY result for purple cow!!

So either mafia or SK
Tom Bombadil
Day-4 47:12
page 129 / orig Shoulda killed me scumbos

right there. 'shoulda killed me scumbos' that implies they didnt kill you, didnt roleblock you, and if you got a scan OF COURSE they didnt roleblock you, they in this scenario flat out didnt BELIEVE YOU. Do you honestly think any scum(and you also mentioned it after easy logics) would fall for this? I dont, Demon's comments are irrelevant, and just shock that you didnt get roleblocked

[FlaviusAetius]

also I do listen, so I dont know where you got the idea that I dont listen