M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

Also, my catchup focus:

In regards to Sabi D1:
Sabi's D1 strikes me exactly like what they did the first two games that they played - if they got scummed, they took it personally and freaked the fuck out. BB had a couple good points to regarding this.

I also think Chaqa's right that Sabi created a meta/vibe that they exploited when they were scum last time. The whole public freakout about be scummed is easy to duplicate and shouldn't be an auto-town lock like some people have done.

I'm more of a town-lean on these reactions with a bit of to ensure I don't just default them.

The SIMP score:
That was fucking hilarious. Well done Bona.

[Chaqa]

-- snipped --

Humor me, why did you keep tying the vote on D1?

I think I only did it once? And I did it as I was trying to produce a situation where scum would be forced to save (presumed) scum celaph. As it turns out, maybe celaph isn't scum, but if he does turn out to be scum, good things will come.

[worcej]

I think it's most likely that the JOAT didn't shoot at all, and scum shot Snowy.

Like 95%+ probability.

yeah why is this even a topic of discussion

scum never hold the nk there unless they're actually the biggest morons on the planet.

joat shooting there is basically a 0% chance.

last night, scum shot snowy, joat did something else that doesn't require discussion. move on

Because not everything is 100%

I was throwing out a wild theory.

Scum withholding their NK on N1 is 100% never going to happen.

[BusinessLamp]

I mean you had a read you couldn’t otherwise substantiate and it was so weird that like four separate people asked you about it.

who do you even think is mafia and why did EOD1 happen the way it did in light of that

Man it's day two, I'm not supposed to know that yet.

I've realized having missed EoD that it's harder to get a feel for the rhythm of it from the outside. My gut reading it said that celaph was town, and what was left was boat being saved.

If you think celaph is town, do you agree that makes Maniac sus af?

[worcej]

-- snipped --

Humor me, why did you keep tying the vote on D1?

I think I only did it once? And I did it as I was trying to produce a situation where scum would be forced to save (presumed) scum celaph. As it turns out, maybe celaph isn't scum, but if he does turn out to be scum, good things will come.

You did it twice - one with 23 minutes left and then the second with 2 minutes left.

Which one was the attempt to get a save?

[Chaqa]

Chaqa what you did served literally no town purpose. Even if you think what I was doing was obvious, what you did increased the chance that mafia figured it out, for literally zero gain to town. This despite the fact that you have hardcore townread me the entire game. You did it entirely out of your own pride and conceit with no regard for how it helped the team.

Take a fucking break until you can put your silly stupid pride aside or sub the fuck out.

Increasing the chance from 100% lmao

You made a really terrible play. There is no reason to pretend it wasn't out there just for some vague "hehe we're so sneaky boiz" bullshit.

If you had just kept your crumbs close to the vest in a few days we would be golden, instead you played your hand to put out one inno scan.

You could have just said "I reread some old Bozo games and it made me town read him" and that would have explained his jump up the rankings. Instead you go "he's 70% town ask no more just trust me"

I'm not prideful about this. I'm feeling gaslit. You're blaming me because you can't admit you're wrong, and it's just like the Royal Bodyguard situation in Clank last year, which I STILL don't agree with you on, and probably never will.

I'm not gonna sub out lmao

[worcej]

I will stop whenever they stop talking about how hard it has been for them to get along and what not.

https://onlyfans.com/GhugsGrotto

for science I clicked

it’s a broken URL

Perv lol

[Chaqa]

Humor me, why did you keep tying the vote on D1?

I think I only did it once? And I did it as I was trying to produce a situation where scum would be forced to save (presumed) scum celaph. As it turns out, maybe celaph isn't scum, but if he does turn out to be scum, good things will come.

You did it twice - one with 23 minutes left and then the second with 2 minutes left.

Which one was the attempt to get a save?

Oh, you're counting my move over to Blamp too? Weird. I don't think leaving a wagon to try to start a new one should be considered tying the vote, but fair I guess.

I switched off TFB because my vote on him was never a scumread vote, it was a pressure/joke vote so he'd get out of a tunnel he was in on me.

[damo666]

OK so here's the thing I have been sitting in for the last day or two ( I even hinted it):

The connection between pyxxy and boatman.

You may be asking, why is Sabi trying to connect them?

Well gather around the fire folks, here's another one of my maybe plausible theory:

Boatman and Pyxxy are probably as close as friends as me and Pyxxy are.

Pyxxy introduction post: no mention of possible connection with boatman but he named me.

OK maybe it's a wild coincidence but the simp analysis shows pyxxy mentioning Bona a lot.

What's the connection? Bona, boatman, pyxxy (and ghug) are all on my discord server and we are friends. Tho Bona and ghug are less close friends to pyxxy than boatman and I are.

Maybe it's wild coincidence but if you check the sheet ™ they barely interact, even in passing. They do make a joke at my expense and about my cringe humor.

Anyway that's a piece of the puzzle.

What does it mean?

Either they are scum mates or just coincidence.

Maybe out of game friendships should not have a stake in this.

Anyway I have a meeting so I can't expand on this due a couple of hours.

This may or may not be significant. Get off me and vote TFB. If he flips scum then we can analyse Pyxxy, if TFB flips town (doubt he will unless he's flipper) we can put it on the back burner.

[BusinessLamp]

You’re the flipper softing Cop and Bozo is your teammate

Solved

i know from skimming current page that eden is emotional/frustrated regarding this discussion so i'll try not to add too much heat to that. but i don't think chaqa is incorrect to point this out, i get the motivation, the odds that scum were oblivious to it seems irrational. admittedly other than kind of side-eyeing the initial 92.3% i was p oblivious to it, but that's not going to be the case for others.

i feel like hoping for better play and better softing from eden and therefore reaching this conclusion is pretty sound.

anyway uhhh we got this team LETS WIN

[worcej]

I actually think this part was towny as it was a legit way to see who’d react (including borks like me who hadn’t noticed Bob’s unusual rule, but also possibly other reactions).

You’re the only one who thinks that. It was a way to pr hunt by scum.

it amuses me how often Sabi relies on appeals to popularity or authority instead of engaging with divergent ideas.

Sabi is not the only one who does this.

[President Eden]

Chaqa what you did served literally no town purpose. Even if you think what I was doing was obvious, what you did increased the chance that mafia figured it out, for literally zero gain to town. This despite the fact that you have hardcore townread me the entire game. You did it entirely out of your own pride and conceit with no regard for how it helped the team.

Take a fucking break until you can put your silly stupid pride aside or sub the fuck out.

Increasing the chance from 100% lmao

You made a really terrible play. There is no reason to pretend it wasn't out there just for some vague "hehe we're so sneaky boiz" bullshit.

If you had just kept your crumbs close to the vest in a few days we would be golden, instead you played your hand to put out one inno scan.

You could have just said "I reread some old Bozo games and it made me town read him" and that would have explained his jump up the rankings. Instead you go "he's 70% town ask no more just trust me"

I'm not prideful about this. I'm feeling gaslit. You're blaming me because you can't admit you're wrong, and it's just like the Royal Bodyguard situation in Clank last year, which I STILL don't agree with you on, and probably never will.

I'm not gonna sub out lmao

You feel gaslit because you are terminally prideful and feel entitled to attack people as viciously as you want without any consequence if they ever say anything to you that you sufficiently don’t like, including calling you out for your bullshit, and you literally cannot imagine a world where that isn’t the case. In the “Royal Bodyguard situation” that you keep referencing as some kind of own, you gave one interpretation of a rule when I asked and then changed your interpretation once you saw me apply the rule on my turn, then when I pointed this out in a completely matter of fact tone and without accusing you, you flew off the handle and kept personally insulting me and talking over everyone until I quit the game and blocked you to get away from it.

You are being terminally prideful again. It shows in the fact that you have no answer to the 100% correct charge that nothing you did helped town. You cannot answer the points against you with reason, so you resort to emotional manipulation, the same as you did when you were the Cop in M70 and royally botched your crumbs and your D1 generally. You refused to meet me as an equal and have a constructive conversation about the misunderstanding. You were prideful and your pride led you to be shitty to me and engage in behavior that was actually gaslighting—acting like an encounter we had didn’t happen and explicitly resorting to emotional appeals to make me stop bringing it up.

You’re my friend and this doesn’t change that but you act REALLY FUCKING SHITTY sometimes and I wish you’d fucking stop.

[President Eden]

Just to illustrate my point about how your behavior was actually harmful Chaqa, keep this exchange in mind if Boat flips mafia. Look at how he reacted to what I was saying. He didn’t know what I meant. He probably had ideas about what I might be implying, but he tried to dig into it to get answers. Once he knew he straight up ghosted the thread.

If he’s mafia then you very very likely helped a mafia figure out who the Cop is.

[worcej]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

I voted for Kakarroto because Kakarroto and celaph were tied with less than 1 minute left.

Willing to expand why you picked Kak over celaph?

[BusinessLamp]

##vote kak for tie

Does the reference to the tie mean you had not seen my vote for Kakarroto yet when you placed this vote?

no it meant that my reasons for voting kak were primarily to avoid a tie situation but i couldnt write that in full because i wasn't sure how much time was left

[President Eden]

anyway I voted Boat

[worcej]

Why specifically Bozo of all Kak voters? I am not saying Bozo isn't scum (in fact I barely remember him, which is weird), just want to understand.

Most others had some level of established opinion on the subject, has vested interest in saving themselves, or were voting to prevent a tie in the final moments. Bozo broke a tie with no existing opinions on either player. If the one he saves flips scum, he looks bad.

Are you agreeing that it looks bad, or just explaining why it may look bad to others? I think rdrivera knows why I would never place that vote if celaph and I were both mafia, as I would expect you to as well.

Bozo - are you trying to imply that you'd bus over save a teammate?

[Jamiet99uk]

Why is sabi tier 1?

kind of hardcore doubt they actually go to all the trouble of spreadsheeting like this if they’re mafia. concededly there’s no reason they can’t have, but in my mind it’s a very low probability.

and I think they have been trying to solve the game in their own way. as we’ve seen in the past, their way is unfortunately easily replicated as mafia. but I think it’s genuine.

see, but imagine the scenario where sabi draws mafia again right after having an amazing mafia game. they'd have to know that in order to pull it off again, they're going to have to put in an extraordinant amount of effort and pull out all the stops. including the pity card of "you're all just voting me because i played well," including the spreadsheets, etc. Sabi strikes me as someone hyper-competitive-- apparently they sandbagged old games in order to have a good mafia one. Playing as mafia seems to be their main draw to the game, so I have no doubt they'd go to whatever trouble. so i don't think effort should be the way to determine their role, moreso motive behind their actions

I feel this is a plausible take.

[BusinessLamp]

is everything im posting right now going to be lost among some PR discussion i havent read yet lol

There's a 54.5% chance of that happening but do your best anyway.

the inclusion of a percentage in this post is very funny i hope that was a purposeful reference

[Jamiet99uk]

Are you not aware of the Peterbot?

i am like technically aware of it but never think to use it lol. i was also in the middle of a Zoom game on my computer and only looking at the thread on mobile

Were you looking at your phone, or a friend's?