Mafia 41 - Sid Meiers Civilizaton Mafia - Official Game Thread

[Nephthys]

Pretty much thing was that mafia/SK need to hit the same person or else Fox pulls out a save

@Jamie, you need to scan damo. There is so much riding on him and he is likely (if scum) to return Universal backup, also if he doesn't then Fox is scum/SK although I still don't think Fox can be scum. This guarantees us a scum hit, if you get jailed then damo is also confirmed UB and is scum. It works in our favour anyway.

[bozotheclown]

If both SK and Mafia hit Town (which is the context for this comment), then on Day 5 we are at 2-3-1. (Assuming they hit different targets.)

In order to win then, we'd absolutely have to lynch scum (2-3 is Town auto-loss), to go into Night 5 at 2-2-1. But then what?

SK hits scum, scum hit SK
Day 6 starts 2-1-1, and we have to lynch scum again (2-1 after the lynch if we get rid of SK, 1-1 after the NK, scum auto-win). So Night 6 start 2-0-1, which point SK takes it to 1-1, and SK wins.

SK hits scum, scum hit Town

Day 6 starts 1-2-1. Scum voting together could tie it, but also if the SK jumps last minute to join them, it's 0-2-1, which is SK win. So No-lynch is the only option.

So Night 6 is 1-2-1 and we have opened a new branch of possibilities...
SK hits scum, scum hit SK: 1-1-1, SK wins.
SK hits scum, scum hit town; or SK hits town, scum hit SK; or both SK and scum hit town: 0-1-1, and SK wins.

(Some of these assume that the SK doesn't manage to kill the scum carrying out the NK, so that's an additional complication.)

SK hits town, scum hit town

0-2-1, SK autowin.
Or 1-2-1, which is the SK autowin scenarios above.

SK hits town, scum hit SK

1-2-1, SK autowin scenarios above.

-------------

Someone check my math, but I think if SK and Mafia both hit town, SK auto wins...

Unless you meant something else, Neph?

Why are you helping SK?

Because if I'm doing this math right, town and mafia are both fucked and the SK is about to win anyway and I assume he knows it, so I want everyone to know it. He would be stupid to not have at least looked at these options, and if the mafia team isn't doing this already, I want to make sure they see it, because it looks like their chances and town's might rest on mafia holding their kill.

It is not auto win for the SK, because town could throw the game to scum D6. I think this is what Nephthys was getting at, giving the SK an ultimatum to kill scum or lose to scum. However, the best play for scum is to withhold their NK. By the way, this is exactly what Durga was saying, and that going for the SK over no lynching was the right play, because a no lynch still would have resulted in the SK trying to hit town.

[Nephthys]

the SK !!!

There are only four people that could realistically be it
Bozo
Damo
Me
Worcej
I am not the SK.

Quas provided a decent reason why bozo is the SK and I am inclined to think that Damo is scum. That leaves worcej/bozo. Worcej has been to aggressive as town and so is too high on the NK potential to be SK.

@Worcej, I don't think we can read into too much into flavour tbh. As brain said, a lot of it was pre-written and also I think thats a little weird for him to crumb stuff as the GM.

##CALL GM, previous question has not been answered, is America confirmed to be in the game?

[brainbomb]

2 hours remain, please submit all actions to tom and myself

[worcej]

Who
Shall
I
Scan
??

the SK !!!

As I plot out more paths for how this could go, MANY of them lead to SK auto wins. So I agree with Damo, finding the SK is a higher priority than finding scum.

You
Will
Learn
Nothing
From
A
SK
Scan
Because
They
Report
As
VT

RTFRP (Read The Fucking Role Page)

BARBARIANS - 3RD PARTY SERIAL KILLER
Blessings of Earth upon ye Barbarians! You are loosely-organized bands of "wild" people that go around killing folks. Your goal is to survive and be among the last three standing. if you are still alive and the mongols are dead, and town is outnumbered, you win as long as you are in the final three.
x2 Bulletproof, and You must kill someone each night. If scanned by a Cop or Role cop you will appear as Vanilla Town. if Scanned by a civ cop or oracle you will be caught.

Which, based on the response you received already, helps confirm my suspicion that Fox is scum - he should know that the scan is worthless to hit SK. Damo is normally dumb so I am not shocked to see him miss that.

Scan damo/bozo/fox to learn something to help the SK win imo - we're already fucked.

[Foxcastle]

I see someone found the return key...

[Foxcastle]

But also, yes, I should have read the roles more closely, but not, that does make me scum.

[Foxcastle]

But also, yes, I should have read the roles more closely, but not, that does make me scum.

Bleh.

But no, that does not make me scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have submitted my scan.

[Foxcastle]

Anyway, do what you want with your scan, Jamiet. There are so many ways that the SK can win, and so few for Town that we basically are just waiting to see if we get lucky with the kills tonight. And we need to be very, very lucky.

[Foxcastle]

I am still ordering my save on you, Jamiet.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am still ordering my save on you, Jamiet.

Thank you.

[damo666]

But also, yes, I should have read the roles more closely, but not, that does make me scum.

Rofl

[damo666]

And I didn't take the jailer into account above, because it was too many options.

LQ is dead!

[Foxcastle]

And I didn't take the jailer into account above, because it was too many options.

LQ is dead!

Yes, Damo, I know. He flipped Russia, not Universal Backup. So that just leaves you...

[Jamiet99uk]

Is there any chance anyone other than Damo is the Jailor or have we actually got him caught?

[bozotheclown]

As Foxcastle pointed out, if 2 town get killed tonight to make it 2-3-1, town can't win, and the SK will win unless the town helps the scum lynch the SK. In other words, if the SK and scum both kill a town, the remaining 2 town gets to decide who wins between the SK and the scum. So, SK and scum, kill town tonight at your own risk. The SK can't withhold his kill, but he can target Jamie, who is supposed to be protected. The scum can withhold their NK.

Here is my recommendation: Scum withhold the NK, SK target Jamie. Scum, if Jamie is not really protected tell us now. Any party responsible for a town death tonight can expect to lose with a town assist.

[Jamiet99uk]

As Foxcastle pointed out, if 2 town get killed tonight to make it 2-3-1, town can't win, and the SK will win unless the town helps the scum lynch the SK. In other words, if the SK and scum both kill a town, the remaining 2 town gets to decide who wins between the SK and the scum. So, SK and scum, kill town tonight at your own risk. The SK can't withhold his kill, but he can target Jamie, who is supposed to be protected. The scum can withhold their NK.

Here is my recommendation: Scum withhold the NK, SK target Jamie. Scum, if Jamie is not really protected tell us now. Any party responsible for a town death tonight can expect to lose with a town assist.

I endorse this, wholeheartedly.

[Durga]

As Foxcastle pointed out, if 2 town get killed tonight to make it 2-3-1, town can't win, and the SK will win unless the town helps the scum lynch the SK. In other words, if the SK and scum both kill a town, the remaining 2 town gets to decide who wins between the SK and the scum. So, SK and scum, kill town tonight at your own risk. The SK can't withhold his kill, but he can target Jamie, who is supposed to be protected. The scum can withhold their NK.

Here is my recommendation: Scum withhold the NK, SK target Jamie. Scum, if Jamie is not really protected tell us now. Any party responsible for a town death tonight can expect to lose with a town assist.

What. How will we know who kills who???

[damo666]

And I didn't take the jailer into account above, because it was too many options.

LQ is dead!

Yes, Damo, I know. He flipped Russia, not Universal Backup. So that just leaves you...

Exactly! There is no jailer!