https://www.webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/
https://www.webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4741
No I think scum Jamie is naming both teammates and thinking how hilarious it is to do so openly.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:13 pmwhy...? Because Jamie is saying 1 but not both, and is right about at least 1?
how can you say i look good and then spend hours and hours voting me?BunnyGo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:37 am##vote Flum
I can’t square a POE that doesn’t include Flum.
Possible deep threats are chaqa and brain.
But Damo, pyxxy, bona, Jamie (?…?…maybe a threat)
All look good.
Still need to reread the EOD 2. I remember a lot of interesting talking about ghug and counter wagons that wasn’t recorded in votes. But need to reread still.
1-Pr(2)-Pr(0)bozotheclown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:10 pmIf you "arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5%" to there being 2 bussers, what probability did you arbitrarily assign to there being 1 busser?damo666 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:30 pmOK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.
I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14
I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.
I also made the following assumptions:
Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.
In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.
In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.
% Results in alpha order to 1 dp
Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3
From hi to lo
Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2
If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1
If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9
I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.
As I townread brain slightly more I will
##vote Jamie
why am I above the line and bona below? Why is bozo town now in your eyes? Why is chaqa/jamie dropping? Can you explain?
In what way pray tell. This ain't helpful.
this feels self-evidentbozotheclown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:06 amWhat did you mean by checking discord?Bonatogether wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:35 amno i skim discord for things and then i go read the thread
Yeah...I'm spinning here a bit.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:15 pmhow can you say i look good and then spend hours and hours voting me?BunnyGo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:37 am##vote Flum
I can’t square a POE that doesn’t include Flum.
Possible deep threats are chaqa and brain.
But Damo, pyxxy, bona, Jamie (?…?…maybe a threat)
All look good.
Still need to reread the EOD 2. I remember a lot of interesting talking about ghug and counter wagons that wasn’t recorded in votes. But need to reread still.
well youre displaying nervous energy and its not something I see you do as scum.
damo!damo is towndamo666 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:14 amFollowing this logic there must be exactly one scum in {Bunny, Flum}. We should vote from these two.damo666 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:11 amMine but doesn't apply if Bunny is scum.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:03 am
Are you summarizing Chaqa's position or making this conclusion?
In fact to me Bunny scum townclears Flum.
I'm asking you to explain....
where are these numbers coming from and what do they mean?damo666 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:30 pmOK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.
I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14
I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.
I also made the following assumptions:
Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.
In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.
In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.
% Results in alpha order to 1 dp
Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3
From hi to lo
Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2
If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1
If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9
I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.
As I townread brain slightly more I will
##vote Jamie
The latter is what I think is happening.brainbomb wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:16 pmwe dont have to push chaqa today because his lack of dying will eventually catch up to him. so he needs a scum buddy well locked even deeper than himself and the way hes playing is that is seems like hes stashing Jamie as far back in the POE as he can.
it makes strategic sense. because chaqa if scum knows eventually people are gonna ask why hes alive, and Jamie can get to be the first one to eventually say it. and earn the cred at the right time.
or they just have enough miskills lined up that scum can keep aiming for doc shots to justify chaqa never dying.
i was town and that was not a fake catchupbrainbomb wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:07 pmrereading bona currently and now I see why people are thinking the pyxxy thing is unusual. he seems like he was trolling there and it went awry so he tries to make it seem like he misunderstood who died.
either way bona hard sells the idea that he is very far removed from paying attention to the game which is something he also did last game with his fake catchup posts. I wonder if maybe this is a little more sinister than that however
'do you believe his real life excuses are real'BunnyGo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:17 pmDo you believe his real life excuses are real?brainbomb wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:07 pmrereading bona currently and now I see why people are thinking the pyxxy thing is unusual. he seems like he was trolling there and it went awry so he tries to make it seem like he misunderstood who died.
either way bona hard sells the idea that he is very far removed from paying attention to the game which is something he also did last game with his fake catchup posts. I wonder if maybe this is a little more sinister than that however
Do you believe that it's possible he'd pull that specific stunt as a scummate with pyxxy?