M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

@rdr you say celaph was killed because he is a good player. Surely that argument could be used against most potential kills.

Let's think about why celaph was killed.

I'm going to list each possible pair and see if celaph makes sense as a kill.

Eg arguably w or me make more sense
EJ possible
Er I think kill me
Ew possible
Gj possible
Gr I think kill me or w
Gw I think kill me
Jr maybe
Jw possible
Rw more likely to kill me I think

So possibles count

E 2
G 1
J 3
R 1
W 2

Interesting.

What was the criteria for possibilities or not?

Without knowing how you arrived at the conclusions, this is just a made up list to me.

It's just me putting myself in other people's shoes thinking would they kill celaph. At the end of the day I'm only guessing so in that sense it is a made up list.

[worcej]

Chaqa loves to bus

d1 voted e and w
d2 r
d3 g
d4 w r

No votes for me and g. I am town. So probably g is town. I know that's a bit of a stretch but it just adds to my townread of him.

I'm gonna ##vote rdrivera

This argument is flawed only because while Chaqa does bus, him not voting for a teammate isn't uncommon and shouldn't be used to determine an alignment of someone else.

In M66, Chaqa was scum with kgray, Demon, Macca, Celaph.
D1 - all 4 bussed Demon (RIP lol...), but Chaqa did put a 1 hour-ish vote on kgray.
D2 - Chaqa didn't bus anyone.
D3 - Chaqa parked on Macca for a bit, but moved off ultimately.
D4 - Same as D3.
D5 - HB claimed 3rd party and died by everyone.
D6 - Bussed Macca while town killed a VT Bona and ultimately won.

He never voted Celaph and only voted kgray for an hour in a big game.

[worcej]

If I die, y'all should know I took a rose.

This is a very strange post.

Do you think this was ghug being serious or sarcastic?

[damo666]

This was a unexpected NK. Celahp wasn´t widely townread and neither have strong reads. I guess scum went for good town player, which is inline with the other NKs (Snowy, Xorxes, PE).
Which get me back to the question that wasn´t answered since N2. Why scum decide to kill JBH?

Honestly, this is a good question. The best guess I have is aim a shot at the new guy and hope he panic picked a N1 rose. Contextually at the time, the shot doesn't make any real sense. Putting on some thick WIFOM glasses, maybe it was done to shade Jamie?

He wasn´t widele townread, his reads are awful and he was a potential misskil. The most sensible answer is: They didn´t. It was a cover to Chaqa scum shot.

You lose me here. I don't see how the shot was a cover for Chaqa because, to me, it brought more attention to Chaqa than anything else.

Anyone who is impressed by his "noob town aggresive" play should take another look at him and his play at D3/D4 where he was scumreading Chaqa but never pushed him, verry different from the interaction with Damo and Jamiet.

The way I look at it is JBH withdrew this style because his Jamie read was actually that awful. I think it's natural for people, especially newer people at this game, to regress in assertiveness when they are blatantly wrong. JBH has shown this heavily, especially with the comments to sheep, that lead me to believe still that JBH is town.

And the other one I think is Ghug. The way he avoided Chaqa, the way he and Chaqa interacted D1 in a way that Chaqa could not shoot him like he told he will do, it's scum Ghug in action.

I agree that there is a change in style from ghug compared to other games, where he had no issue to kill 'bad people', however the change in style can also just fall into trying to be a better mannered player.

I think there is a chance this is scum motivated and having recently played as scum with ghug, he wasn't incredibly active with his scum partners but also didn't obviously separate either. With that being said, I do not see a world where you (rdr) and ghug are on the same team, unless you both decided to bus each other heavily as a strategy.

I am pretty sure that Damo and Worcej are town at this point, I see the same reactions I have at some points and the same town approach to try to solve the game, even when we don´t agree. If one of them are scum, congrats.

Which leaves emc, that is a big question mark. This is why we can´t allow emc to play this way and should police kill him at first days. Nothing personal, but it hurts towns at the end. If I am wrong on Ghug or JBH it's emc, but I honestly can´t find any reason to either solid townread him or scumread him. Right now only the vote on Ghug, but it could still be a well crafted buss.

Can I ask what makes you certain of Damo? I see a lot of inconsistency from damo right now on his reasoning when typically he is more analytical and stubborn (for the lack of a better word right now) when having discussions about alignment/teams.

And we agree on EMC, that's for sure. I wish some other members of the community would agree to resolve a flip of an AFK EMC more often...

I was actually just wondering if damo being more flip-floppy than normal means something, but I'm also really struggling to make sense of this game right now, so I think it's just that.

It's this kind of post that makes me think ghug is definitely town but then I have this nagging doubt...is he just pocketing me?

There are 2 things that make this game difficult imo
i) the shotclaim on JBH
ii) the nk of celaph

I have tried to address both of these. What are others' theories that explain BOTH these?

[worcej]

I am thinking my updates are worthless because mafia is probably using them now to prove they are not mafia.

By the way, I thought you all had done all that hard math about guns, etc. and proved to yourselves that I was NOT mafia. Now you are throwing all the logic away and now I could be?

You couldn't be mafia if Chaqa was town, because then you would've won already. Since Chaqa was mafia, there's still a possibility you are too.

Anything is possible, but do you honestly think JBH is scum based on how he is posting?

[damo666]

I largely agree with this, though my complaints are more with the assumptions that eliminate rd's teams.

It would help if you were explaining things better, damo. Why does that one post eliminate JR? Why does the day two voting eliminate ER?

Eliminate is probably too strong. 'Makes less likely' is more appropriate. One has to make some assumptions in order to decide on who to vote.

Ok. I'm less concerned with the semantics and more with explaining your logic.

I think it's self evident.

[damo666]

Chaqa loves to bus

d1 voted e and w
d2 r
d3 g
d4 w r

No votes for me and g. I am town. So probably g is town. I know that's a bit of a stretch but it just adds to my townread of him.

I'm gonna ##vote rdrivera

This argument is flawed only because while Chaqa does bus, him not voting for a teammate isn't uncommon and shouldn't be used to determine an alignment of someone else.

In M66, Chaqa was scum with kgray, Demon, Macca, Celaph.
D1 - all 4 bussed Demon (RIP lol...), but Chaqa did put a 1 hour-ish vote on kgray.
D2 - Chaqa didn't bus anyone.
D3 - Chaqa parked on Macca for a bit, but moved off ultimately.
D4 - Same as D3.
D5 - HB claimed 3rd party and died by everyone.
D6 - Bussed Macca while town killed a VT Bona and ultimately won.

He never voted Celaph and only voted kgray for an hour in a big game.

OK so all you're essentially saying is don't townclear ghug just because Chaqa didn't vote for him. OK.

[worcej]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

We've been bitten by assuming a new player (Flavius) is a noob when their first game was scum. Flavius played it up to his advantage and ultimately helped scum win by being auto!towned by most of the players due to being new.

I don't look at new people the same since.

[worcej]

Chaqa loves to bus

d1 voted e and w
d2 r
d3 g
d4 w r

No votes for me and g. I am town. So probably g is town. I know that's a bit of a stretch but it just adds to my townread of him.

I'm gonna ##vote rdrivera

This argument is flawed only because while Chaqa does bus, him not voting for a teammate isn't uncommon and shouldn't be used to determine an alignment of someone else.

In M66, Chaqa was scum with kgray, Demon, Macca, Celaph.
D1 - all 4 bussed Demon (RIP lol...), but Chaqa did put a 1 hour-ish vote on kgray.
D2 - Chaqa didn't bus anyone.
D3 - Chaqa parked on Macca for a bit, but moved off ultimately.
D4 - Same as D3.
D5 - HB claimed 3rd party and died by everyone.
D6 - Bussed Macca while town killed a VT Bona and ultimately won.

He never voted Celaph and only voted kgray for an hour in a big game.

OK so all you're essentially saying is don't townclear ghug just because Chaqa didn't vote for him. OK.

Effectively - but also giving you a little bit of looks because you did it.

[damo666]

If I die, y'all should know I took a rose.

This is a very strange post.

Do you think this was ghug being serious or sarcastic?

Ah.

[worcej]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

So, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.
The fact no other town can see this is just making me crazy. No one was able to give a reason to why scum shoot you but they still think you are town.

I see it rdr, but I struggle with the two possibilities that exist to make it true:

1. A scum player grabbed a rose.
2. A scum team withheld a NK or a gun.

Of the remaining group of players, I don't see anyone who would've been okay with these moves.

[worcej]

It's going to be 110 degrees here tomorrow (that's like 44 for y'all sensible nations) and I don't have AC so if I don't post a lot it's because I'm dead.

Literally have my wife's friend from Seattle over at our house because we have AC.

Keep in mind, it's going to be 111 today over on the eastern side too.

[Johnny Big Horse]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

We've been bitten by assuming a new player (Flavius) is a noob when their first game was scum. Flavius played it up to his advantage and ultimately helped scum win by being auto!towned by most of the players due to being new.

I don't look at new people the same since.

I was wondering if new players are ever scum

[worcej]

Well if Johnny is scum the only person who would possibly have gone along with that plan is brain so

Celaph is still the best kill tomorrow.

If the n5 and n6 kills are me and worcej then you can seriously look at JBH

JBH scum would explain the celaph kill

Why is there so much focus on JBH with the celaph kill?

I could see ANY combo of players picking celaph to die because of solving skills and ability to communicate effectively.

[worcej]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

We've been bitten by assuming a new player (Flavius) is a noob when their first game was scum. Flavius played it up to his advantage and ultimately helped scum win by being auto!towned by most of the players due to being new.

I don't look at new people the same since.

I was wondering if new players are ever scum

My very first game here, albeit a 'noob game', was scum where we killed damo (who also started the same time with me) D1.

Man, that was like 3 years ago too... time flies.

[ghug]

I am thinking my updates are worthless because mafia is probably using them now to prove they are not mafia.

By the way, I thought you all had done all that hard math about guns, etc. and proved to yourselves that I was NOT mafia. Now you are throwing all the logic away and now I could be?

You couldn't be mafia if Chaqa was town, because then you would've won already. Since Chaqa was mafia, there's still a possibility you are too.

Anything is possible, but do you honestly think JBH is scum based on how he is posting?

I've been a big pusher of this theory all game, but at this point I have reasons to townread everyone but rd.

[worcej]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I disagree in that I think ghug, rdr, or yourself would be more than capable of both conditions.

Reflecting on JBH's attempted death earlier in the game, could it be because scum wanted to simply get a kill? With roses in play, you never know who is going to die or not and missing kills like N1 was not something they wanted to repeat?

[worcej]

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

Wait, why would ghug not kill someone who is scum reading him?

[worcej]

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

I don't think killing who scumread you is a bad move. I did this with PE last game. In the end it's pure WIFOM.

Well it's WIFOM either way I guess.

I'm pretty sure it's not GR anyway!

Exactly - and getting rid of someone who scumreads you isn't a bad play when others are unsure.

Of note - anyone have a comment on how WIFOM-centric Damo is atm?

[worcej]

Whoa. Mistake in my assumption.

GJ and JW could have killed celaph.

Add those pairings back in the mix.

Anyway JBH is scum in all cases unless ER has me fooled.

To summarise I am left with

EJ
ER
GJ
JW

Can anybody outside a pairing justify eliminating any of these?

I still think JBH is the best vote.

If I add back EG and GW then I get the following frequency count:

E 3
G 3
J 3
R 1
W 1

However E and G are voting each other so if I give this pairing less weight J is still the best vote.

I'm interested in what W has to say.

What do you think I would say? My strongest townread is JBH due to trying to figure the damn game out.