Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[Jamiet99uk]

If scum dk w&e at least it would narrow it down.

Do us a favour.

I have no idea what you’re saying here. Multiple typos? Please help me understand so I can do you a favor.

I think I speak Damo:

"If scum nightkill Worcej and EMC, at least it would narrow it down".

Damo was that about right?

[rdrivera2005]

Why do you all keep acting like the scum factional roleblock does not exist?

One can dream.

[damo666]

If scum dk w&e at least it would narrow it down.

Do us a favour.

I have no idea what you’re saying here. Multiple typos? Please help me understand so I can do you a favor.

I think I speak Damo:

"If scum nightkill Worcej and EMC, at least it would narrow it down".

Damo was that about right?

Near enough. Double kill actually.

[summit_fever]

How many mislynches we have left?

2 mafia 13 town left alive atm, probably 12 tomorrow.

2 10 (1 ML)
2 8 (2 ML)
2 6 (3 ML)
2 4 (4 ML)

If mafia get a double kill in one night, that'd be

2 9
2 7
2 5
2 3

So they'd have to get at least two double-kills in to get rid of one of those ML's.

I think at 2-3 we have already lost.

If we get to 2-3 and the watcher is dead, there will be two partnerships:

scum-scum
town-town
solo town This is a loss

scum-town
town-town
solo scum This is a loss

scum-town
scum-town
solo town This can be won and results in:

scum-town
solo town If you are town in a 2-1 lylo, and the watcher is dead, and you're in a partnership, your partner is scum

I doubt the watcher will be alive but in that case the autolosses are:

watcher
scum-scum
town-town

watcher
town-town
solo scum
solo scum

This means that we should be careful about how we go about choosing wagons.

[damo666]

While we wait for Bunny or Xorxes to be killed I would like to debate whether it is strategically better to lynch from the 3 prs or from the VTs.

I'm leaning PRs (Bismarck I think) but not sure. I've tried to work through lots of scenarios and it's not obvious. The outed pairs complicate matters.

[summit_fever]

2 mafia 13 town left alive atm, probably 12 tomorrow.

2 10 (1 ML)
2 8 (2 ML)
2 6 (3 ML)
2 4 (4 ML)

If mafia get a double kill in one night, that'd be

2 9
2 7
2 5
2 3

So they'd have to get at least two double-kills in to get rid of one of those ML's.

I think at 2-3 we have already lost.

If we get to 2-3 and the watcher is dead, there will be two partnerships:

scum-scum
town-town
solo town This is a loss

scum-town
town-town
solo scum This is a loss

scum-town
scum-town
solo town This can be won and results in:

scum-town
solo town If you are town in a 2-1 lylo, and the watcher is dead, and you're in a partnership, your partner is scum

I doubt the watcher will be alive but in that case the autolosses are:

watcher
scum-scum
town-town

watcher
town-town
solo scum
solo scum

This means that we should be careful about how we go about choosing wagons.

sorry without the watcher the resulting 1-2 can also be:

solo scum
solo town
solo town

so you'll be in a normal game if we get to 1-2

[Jamiet99uk]

While we wait for Bozo or Vecna to be killed...

Why do you say things like this?

[summit_fever]

While we wait for Bunny or Xorxes to be killed I would like to debate whether it is strategically better to lynch from the 3 prs or from the VTs.

I'm leaning PRs (Bismarck I think) but not sure. I've tried to work through lots of scenarios and it's not obvious. The outed pairs complicate matters.

I'm lost on the value of clarifying things with town vs not helping scum. (ie, vecna's softclaim was not necessary as it was close to a lock that he was the watcher given mechanics and actions)

[BismarckAlive]

While we wait for Bunny or Xorxes to be killed I would like to debate whether it is strategically better to lynch from the 3 prs or from the VTs.

I'm leaning PRs (Bismarck I think) but not sure. I've tried to work through lots of scenarios and it's not obvious. The outed pairs complicate matters.

Right now there are 15 players alive - 13 clean and 2 dirty.

Scenario 1: Double kill tonight - only 2 "outed" pairs (minuscule possibility Worcej and/or BB lied) could mean either 2 VTs dead, or 2PRs (I doubt this one, as I think Worcej the FAE scum). That would leave 11 clean and 2 dirty after N3. If Worcej flips dirty D4, then that leaves 11 clean 1 dirty after D4. If Worcej flips clean, then that leaves 10 clean 2 dirty after D4. Assuming 1 NK, that would be 9 clean 2 dirty start of D5, but we lynch dirty Jamiet, leaving 9 clean and 1 dirty scout after D5. I think that is a good position for the clean scouts.

Scenario 2: 1 NK tonight, leaves the camp as 12 clean and 2 dirty, so if above follows, we could be either 12 clean 1 dirty (if my D4 lynch Worcej flips dirty) heading into N4, or 10 clean 1 dirty after D5 Jamiet lynch if D4 Worcej flips clean). Which is even better.

So I recommend my plan, whatever happens tonight.

[xorxes]

I spent the whole game hinting that you'd get the scan result and I can assure you that it was very deliberate.

OK, I think I just thought you were talking rubbish with your coordination plans.

Yes, well, I was really hoping that scum would cc you and fall into the trap if I pushed on you enough over it. You were obvious town from the second that you claimed N1 before scum killed a hidden PR.

So you're now saying that all of this was not genuine:

Frankly I feel like the game can and will be broken by a full massclaim here when the scum will be down to so few people after the guilty lynch, and therefore the main reason to oppose it is if you are in fact mafia.

I'm not goint to argue this anymore, especially since I'm becoming more convinced that you are scum. The other PRs may do as they think is best. I have given my advice.

I'm sure you do; anything to avoid the rest of your team being wrecked by mechanics no matter what you say.

I'm sure you do; anything to avoid the rest of your team being wrecked by mechanics no matter what you say.

You think I'm scum now?

I think that scum would be opposed to this, so probably yes.

But in terms of scummiest townies and scummiest PR's, as I said before Donny & brain from the VT's, Jamie from the PR's, and maybe xorxes for the other PR-scum. Though I dislike how silent Vecna has gone today.

Helpful of you to narrow down for him what is safe to claim.

Best start convincing me Flash is scum compadre

What I'm now thinking is that flash "fell into your trap", a trap which I did not even notice was there, by agreement, so you could claim credit for that. That would explain how easily he was caught.

[Vecna]

I don't like the Bozo vote because at this point I feel like if he were scum he'd have done something other than continue to spout crap about the massclaim even while the votes were piling up on him

Aside from being a confused noob, what has macca done to get voted?

About as much as anyone does on Day 1.

Idk, there's not a single post of macca's that has stood out to me and given me a desire to lynch them

his problem as scum is he has a hard time coming up with genuine reads.

I told him to give genuine reads. Instead hes been robotic and true to his scum meta, and has been solely hiding behind the massclaim.

Also, theres that thing that quite a few people giving me the heebeejeebies are trying to dissuade us from wagoning him.

Do you really buy that multiple mafia team members would go out of their way to save a partner D1? The fact so many people have jumped to defend Bozo is another reason why I think he's town frankly.

##vote macca

This will be pure luck if they flip scum.

HR could have been trying to save Macca D1 before deciding to bus him, but I do not know why he would be trying to get damo lynched over me as scum. I don't think he would try to pocket me when it looked like I was about to be lynched. It is possible he was expecting me to get lynched and was trying to get town credit for town reading me, while justifying his vote off the top wagons. He may have thought it was more likely someone would jump in and vote for me after he tied the vote than for someone to vote for Macca. At least it can no longer be argued that it was because HR and I are both scum.

I think HR is a possibility for the scum in the VTs, but he would be my second choice after rdrivera.

So you think HR would actually destroy his scumbuddy there in the way that he did with flash?

[xorxes]

So you think HR would actually destroy his scumbuddy there in the way that he did with flash?

lol, was that a crosspost with mine?

How exactly was HR responsible for destroying flash? I'm still not seeing it.

[damo666]

While we wait for Bozo or Vecna to be killed...

Why do you say things like this?

If you think scum are daft enough to be misled by this you should be on their team. Or perhaps you are.

Anyway instead of playing silly buggers what is your opinion on the PRvVT lynch problem?

[xorxes]

@worcej

Whatever your feelings on massclaim, there is absolutely no benefit to anyone in you continuing to sit on a fencepost now. The Mafia will know whether you're a PR or a VT from basic mathematics, so fencesitting solely benefits them now.

It's interesting that when HR said this to worcej, it was true, Mafia already knew whether worcej was PR or VT from basic mathematics. But as town, we could not have known that.

Eight people had claimed PR at that point. worcej and TRC had not yet claimed.

If none of the eight were scum, scum already knew that worcej was VT.
If two of the eight were scum, scum already knew that worcej was PR.
But if only one of the eight was scum, scum could not have known what worcej was unless worcej or TRC were scum.

So HR: TMI or bad maths there?

[Jamiet99uk]

While we wait for Jamiet or HR to be killed...

Why do you say things like this?

If you think scum are daft enough to be misled by this you should be on their team. Or perhaps you are.

Anyway instead of playing silly buggers what is your opinion on the PRvVT lynch problem?

Could you articulate the "problem" for me exactly?

[xorxes]

@Jamie, could you give your reads on the eight VT claimants:

Bob
bozo
brainbomb
damo
Durga
HR
rdrivera
summit

Also, who did you try to save N1 and N2 and why?

[damo666]

Why do you say things like this?

If you think scum are daft enough to be misled by this you should be on their team. Or perhaps you are.

Anyway instead of playing silly buggers what is your opinion on the PRvVT lynch problem?

Could you articulate the "problem" for me exactly?

Is it strategically better for town to lynch tomorrow from the 3 PR suspects or the VTs?

[Hellenic Riot]

One has to wonder at this point what I'd have to do for xorxes not to scumread me. Switch a lynch from town to scum at the final second? Check. Scumread another scum constantly from my very post in the game? Check. Deliberately misinterpret a role over a prolonged period of time so that a scum fucks up and believes it works the way I've been hinting? Check.

To answer your most recent question: No, I did not ever actually scumread you. I wanted you to be cc'd, and felt that pushing a SR on you made that more likely and would narrow it to a 50/50 - And indeed, it was narrowed even further when Bunny made himself obvtown by not claiming the unknown role despite the option being spelt out for him (again, you're welcome). I have really nothing more to say to you if you continue to scumread me after that.


Regarding who we lynch next; as xorxes so kindly pointed out, if we get down to 2-3 we will have one less mislynch than if we get down to 1-2 due to the double-kill mechanic. Which makes it optimal to lynch in the FAE's while we still have our mislynches; as we are guaranteed to use at worst 2 mislynches of our 3-4 ML's up in the worst case scenario, and we have a much higher chance (1/3) than we do throwing some random VT lynches out there. And furthermore, what nobody has yet mentioned is that the scum have to have different players perform the factional RB and the factional kill - And there is not an exception to this rule when it gets down to one final mafia. So if we get a quick and correct lynch on the scum FAE done, the mafia will lose their ability to RB the SM (or have to stop killing people at night, giving us a near-infinite amount of ML's).

[Hellenic Riot]

Tl;'dr Lynching the scum PR claim will grant us an extra ML unless they nail at least two double-kills - which requires them not to target the SM - and the SM will be able to get scans again because they'll lose their factional RB.

[worcej]

@Bismark - can you please summarize your case why I am scum?

@Jamie - between Bismark and me, who do you believe to be the scum and why?

I already have:
(1) coaching noob scums how to think about massclaims;
(2) outing your chat buddy knowing that you two will not be double-killed;
(3) waiting till last to claim a PR role, ensuring there were 9 PRs (When all the arguments for the massclaim had been laid out, and majority of players had already claimed, making it a foregone conclusion.);
(4) I licked my lips in gleeful satisfaction when you claimed FAE, because you are now confirmed scum
Cheers!
(4)

Noted. Which reasons were the ones that influenced your vote on me?