Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[damo666]

And obviously the next recipient should take

[worcej]

This game is boring

How is this game any more boring than other games? I feel it's the exact same as always, only you're alive longer than you normally have been in the past.

[worcej]

##vote ghug

Why? We're getting to the point that you normally shine at, so give me at least something to go off of instead of just sheeping you.

[worcej]

Given box development s RHK should probably list to ensure survival this leaves doc free to save someone else (Squigs? self?).

There is half chance of 2 lists and 2/3 chance of more items so only 1/6 chance of next recipient being killed. So perhaps RHK should send to a townie but not a doc possibility.

Under the absence of what Balki did, you cannot assume anything. Also your math is poor - it isn't a 1/6 chance they blow up because you can't combine the choice odds. It's either 100% using the List (assuming balki took an item) or 66% it won't blow if you take. Using list is the best option for Demon to live today.

uhhh soooo.. box passing went like this?

game start - worcej - scan swap
n1 - DrcJ - gun
n2 - Squigs - oracle
n3 - Balkins - ??
n4 - RHK - will list

Did I miss something. What is your item worcej

FWIW - Added my item into the quote.

So, we know that Demon has the box, has claimed observer, and picked meh targets. Minus any CC, I agree that performing the list action is the wisest thing to do. We need to make the box be able to explode soon as it hits a possible scum players hands.

[Durga]

Ok doesn't seem like we have a cc at this point

##vote flash

[damo666]

Given box development s RHK should probably list to ensure survival this leaves doc free to save someone else (Squigs? self?).

There is half chance of 2 lists and 2/3 chance of more items so only 1/6 chance of next recipient being killed. So perhaps RHK should send to a townie but not a doc possibility.

Under the absence of what Balki did, you cannot assume anything. Also your math is poor - it isn't a 1/6 chance they blow up because you can't combine the choice odds. It's either 100% using the List (assuming balki took an item) or 66% it won't blow if you take. Using list is the best option for Demon to live today.

uhhh soooo.. box passing went like this?

game start - worcej - scan swap
n1 - DrcJ - gun
n2 - Squigs - oracle
n3 - Balkins - ??
n4 - RHK - will list

Did I miss something. What is your item worcej

FWIW - Added my item into the quote.

So, we know that Demon has the box, has claimed observer, and picked meh targets. Minus any CC, I agree that performing the list action is the wisest thing to do. We need to make the box be able to explode soon as it hits a possible scum players hands.

Demon lists and guarantees survival. So, there will be either 0 lists or 1 list and and either 0,1 or 2 items. So the recipient after demon is better off risking taking so probability of being exploded by box is 1/3. I still say pass it to likely VT. Apologies for previous mistake.

[Durga]

If we mislynch and the box explodes on a townie, do we lose?

[damo666]

We have 2 lynches before next possible explosion if demon lists. Won't be till N6

[damo666]

If we mislynch and they NK it will be 6-4.

[DrCJG]

Given box development s RHK should probably list to ensure survival this leaves doc free to save someone else (Squigs? self?).

There is half chance of 2 lists and 2/3 chance of more items so only 1/6 chance of next recipient being killed. So perhaps RHK should send to a townie but not a doc possibility.

Under the absence of what Balki did, you cannot assume anything. Also your math is poor - it isn't a 1/6 chance they blow up because you can't combine the choice odds. It's either 100% using the List (assuming balki took an item) or 66% it won't blow if you take. Using list is the best option for Demon to live today.

uhhh soooo.. box passing went like this?

game start - worcej - scan swap
n1 - DrcJ - gun
n2 - Squigs - oracle
n3 - Balkins - ??
n4 - RHK - will list

Did I miss something. What is your item worcej

FWIW - Added my item into the quote.

So, we know that Demon has the box, has claimed observer, and picked meh targets. Minus any CC, I agree that performing the list action is the wisest thing to do. We need to make the box be able to explode soon as it hits a possible scum players hands.

Demon lists and guarantees survival. So, there will be either 0 lists or 1 list and and either 0,1 or 2 items. So the recipient after demon is better off risking taking so probability of being exploded by box is 1/3. I still say pass it to likely VT. Apologies for previous mistake.

I am confused... if someone tries to list the box and there are no lists it will just take an item if possible (otherwise explode)...

So regardless of if Balki took an or listed item... the box currently has 1-2 lists and 0-2 items... 1/6 chance of 1 item/list... 1/3 chance of 2 item/list.... 1/3 chance of 3 item/list... 1/6 chance of 4 item/list.

So Demon is absolutely safe to list...

the next drawer would have a 1/6 chance of dieing if he lists... and as high as a 50% chance to die if he tries to take the item (assuming Balki and Demon took)... admittedly there may be a Monty hall falacy in there but... the point being if people list from here on it doesn't matter what Balki did.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok doesn't seem like we have a cc at this point

##vote flash

If Demon is really town I don't a clue on what is happening.

Durga, why vote flash today? I don't remember you pushing him yesterday.

[DrCJG]

##vote ghug

Why? We're getting to the point that you normally shine at, so give me at least something to go off of instead of just sheeping you.

I am more than happy to sheep our townclear ##VOTE Ghug

Plus Balki listed him... and he was already in my scumpool.

[Durga]

Ok doesn't seem like we have a cc at this point

##vote flash

If Demon is really town I don't a clue on what is happening.

Durga, why vote flash today? I don't remember you pushing him yesterday.

I went back and read d1 with jamiet. If ghug is scum it's probably with flash. I feel like flash is the safest bet, he hasn't done much but defend himself all game

[Durga]

##vote ghug

Why? We're getting to the point that you normally shine at, so give me at least something to go off of instead of just sheeping you.

I am more than happy to sheep our townclear ##VOTE Ghug

Plus Balki listed him... and he was already in my scumpool.

I'm sure you're more than happy to do that rather than think for yourself again

[DrCJG]

Why? We're getting to the point that you normally shine at, so give me at least something to go off of instead of just sheeping you.

I am more than happy to sheep our townclear ##VOTE Ghug

Plus Balki listed him... and he was already in my scumpool.

I'm sure you're more than happy to do that rather than think for yourself again

Don't worry Durga... you are still #2 in my scumpool.

[Durga]

I'd rather see you push a case on me than just sheep Squigs. It'll help me read you better.

[worcej]

Well I am going with my #1 Scum read, which is now ##vote Durga.

I stand by the fake Balki interactions and the constant distancing herself from pressure.

[damo666]

Under the absence of what Balki did, you cannot assume anything. Also your math is poor - it isn't a 1/6 chance they blow up because you can't combine the choice odds. It's either 100% using the List (assuming balki took an item) or 66% it won't blow if you take. Using list is the best option for Demon to live today.

FWIW - Added my item into the quote.

So, we know that Demon has the box, has claimed observer, and picked meh targets. Minus any CC, I agree that performing the list action is the wisest thing to do. We need to make the box be able to explode soon as it hits a possible scum players hands.

Demon lists and guarantees survival. So, there will be either 0 lists or 1 list and and either 0,1 or 2 items. So the recipient after demon is better off risking taking so probability of being exploded by box is 1/3. I still say pass it to likely VT. Apologies for previous mistake.

I am confused... if someone tries to list the box and there are no lists it will just take an item if possible (otherwise explode)...

So regardless of if Balki took an or listed item... the box currently has 1-2 lists and 0-2 items... 1/6 chance of 1 item/list... 1/3 chance of 2 item/list.... 1/3 chance of 3 item/list... 1/6 chance of 4 item/list.

So Demon is absolutely safe to list...

the next drawer would have a 1/6 chance of dieing if he lists... and as high as a 50% chance to die if he tries to take the item (assuming Balki and Demon took)... admittedly there may be a Monty hall falacy in there but... the point being if people list from here on it doesn't matter what Balki did.

Yeah worcej confused me. I forgot if you list and there are none left you get an item. So, agreed, demonRHK lists and is guaranteed survival. Next recipient lists with 1/6 chance of explosion (0 lists 1/2 * 0 items 1/3) so demonRHK may as well pass to a townread who lists.

[Durga]

Well I am going with my #1 Scum read, which is now ##vote Durga.

I stand by the fake Balki interactions and the constant distancing herself from pressure.

So you think it was fake on my end and not on his? What? You don't see how that interaction could be town v town? Also, explain that second part a little better. What does it mean to constantly distance myself from pressure. I don't really get it. And what is scummy about it.

[damo666]

As a fairly regular GM it really, really annoys me when someone says the GM is outright lying about the setup. Any GM who would do that isn't fit to GM - and to accuse Foxcastle of this, as Worcej has done, is totally insulting and he should apologise.

This sounds like it's really important to you. I suggest that you write a strongly worded letter after this game is over to secure that apology for Foxcastle.

For now, please tell us who is scum and why.

ND is scum. I have explained why I think this.

I also have a theory Worcej may be scum. It goes like this:
- Worcej is scum and drew the Box.
- Worcej attempts to persuade town of a false narrative that the GM would rig the setup to have the Box be guaranteed to start on a Roman.
- If town swallows this muck, then later if it is found Worcej had the Box, he can claim to be a townclear.

any comment worcej?