Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Tom Bombadil]

I'm quite confident RHK is town.

[Tom Bombadil]

You could even say I'm 99.999% sure =P

[thamrick]

@Maniac - why are you sure that RHK is townclear?

If it's for the RB reason, then reconsider. It was the most obvious thing in the world that he would claim to be RB'd. I'm not saying that makes him scum. But it doesn't clear him.

If it's because he countered Yav's lie. Again, that was literally the only thing he could do. RHK is smart enough to have known what he said and know that the only play was to counter Yav's claim. If he backtracked on what he said, we would have for sure lynched him. Again, doesn't make him scum, but it doesn't clear him.

@Tom - I assume you only received 1 RB notification, correct?

[thamrick]

Keep reading and tell me if you're 99.999% sure. Consider that .001% chance.

Hell, I might be reading into things too much and it's actually true RHK is Watcher.

[Foxcastle]

I expect the 0.001 percent likelihood that Tom is scum comes from possible scenario that scum holstered their NK so that Tom could claim he was saved and thus be townclear for a while (until the Nurse exposes him). The 0.001 percentage is also the chance that Tom is that stupid.

[thamrick]

RHK is Godfather.

MLQ is scum.

Potentially Bo as the 3rd. Or Balki.

[Tom Bombadil]

@ tham:

I only received one rb, yes.

I'm not actually 99.999% sure, but pretty confident.

[Tom Bombadil]

What makes you think RHK is godfather?

[Foxcastle]

@Tham, do you think that if both DemonRHK and Mean are scum, that Mean is overplaying her hand a good bit? She seems like a better player than that.

[thamrick]

@Foxy - potentially. Though I think she's backed into a corner by the RHK claim. Look at the language when she talks about it.

[Tom Bombadil]

I'm becoming slowly more suspicious of Balki

[thamrick]

Seriously Tom. Read the thread. It's not my place to say but it should be kind of obvious.

It was also pretty obvious that you would be the NK target. Look at the D3 votes.

[thamrick]

People who weren't on the RJ wagon potentially not wanting to kill Witch:

RHK
Balki
Bozo
MLQ
me
Bo
Reedeer
Meme

People who were on the Yav wagon potentially trying to kill Cop:

RHK
Bo
Tom - 100% townclear
Vashta
MLQ

You can throw Balki and Meme into the suspicious list for how they arrived on the ND wagon.

I've shouted enough about this. That's who to look at.

I agree it makes a lot of sense that Vashta looks good due to being the counter wagon to RJ and that Yav's wagon never got traction. But that assumes that scum were online at EoD. Vashta's static vote for RJ with 30 mins to go to tie Tom for lead looks really good though. I'm strongly doubting Vashta is scum.

[Tom Bombadil]

Seriously Tom. Read the thread. It's not my place to say but it should be kind of obvious.

It was also pretty obvious that you would be the NK target. Look at the D3 votes.

Can you expand upon that second point? And I have read the thread, and see no reason why we should be considering RHK as scum or godfather when he is an un-CC'd PR claimant.

[thamrick]

Do you really want me to expand on that point Tom? I'm happy to say what I'm guessing if you want.

[Tom Bombadil]

Ok. I see, but I think they've already got it figured out anyway, so its moot - but I know what you are getting at.

[Tom Bombadil]

I'm going to spend some time re-reading bo.

[thamrick]

I agree. So let's openly discuss?

I think our Nurse and our GS have done an excellent job staying hidden. I have no clue who they might be.

[Tom Bombadil]

Let's not openly discuss.

[thamrick]

Okay. That's fine.

I think we're really close to pinning down the scum team. If we can get the Hooker today, we're in great shape of keeping our PRs alive long enough to find the remaining scum.

If we miss on Hooker today, then we're not in as great of shape, but still long odds for scum to win.

I'm betting one of MLQ/Bo is scum. I don't have strong feelings which is more likely than the other. If I'm right that RHK is Godfather, then there's a 50% chance we get Hooker if we get scum.

I get that you have reasonable skepticism about my RB claim. I'm asking you to take it for face value and trust me. I'm picking up what people are putting down and drawing conclusions from it.

I think our GS has given a gun to 2 mafia. The longer Ezio's shooter stays hidden, the more convinced I am. Eventually they can reveal who they've gunned. I'm betting that would get us close to auto-win. If our PRs claim (I'm adding in you and Maniac as clears to that PR list too), that's a lot for scum to overcome with only 1 NK ability. We can't give scum another gun.

Reread the D3 votes. Follow my assumptions. Scum probably didn't stalk Yavuz. They might have stalked ND. I'm assuming they hadn't. That means scum don't know for sure that Yavuz's claim wasn't true. They'd know ND wasn't scum. He could have had a guilty scan on a Miller. That's low odds (1/8) but they'd be at least somewhat likely to think it could be true.

I understand most of the votes on Yav. Look at what reasoning MLQ/Bo/Vashta have for voting Yav.

I can agree that it's possible/likely that at least 1 scum played it safe and was on ND to avoid suspicion. But I'm also betting at least 1 scum pushed Yav to test the top claim.