M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

I'm trying so hard not to tunnel you. It would help if you stop making posts full of bad ideas.

[Fluminator]

Why don't you do an EON analysis assuming EMC is both town and scum, and see how big a difference that makes. Then maybe I'll consider your suggestion to lynch him solely for information.

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
At the risk of sketching out Bunnygo by saying this, I think he's pretty confirmed town at this point tbh

Yeah...stop pocketing me...

I would like to know why Fluminator thinks you are confirmed town.

Read a few posts up...

[BunnyGo]

Bunny did specify he changed his read on me after realizing he's never played with scum!Chaqa and I always play like this (in his words)

If he has never seen you play as scum, why would he know you do not play that was as scum also?

I cannot speak for the Energizer Bunny.

I LIKE that one, I’ve reference.

As for why, there are two possible scenarios:

1) the Balki/Flum scenario that people always play the same, and we need to enjoy the Nirvana of mafia because everyone is good at it and everyone is bad at it. In which case, judging people by their “style” is hard and nearly useless

2) people are subtly different playing scum and town. In which case if I see a lot of Chaq’s town triggers, then either I’m missing a different tell or not. But odds are, not. Because how many tells can someone have?

[BunnyGo]

Is this a misread, or is Flum townreading Bungo for similar thing that he scumread Chaqa for?

Moving reads as EOD drew near.

It's like I said - Fluminator especially decided I was scum and is deciding everything I do within that lens. Definition of tunneling.

My previous 4-5 games I did nothing but tunnel. I largely sucked. I’m trying very hard not to this game.

[BunnyGo]

There's a difference between watching someone change their reads in realtime, and someone forgetting their reads under pressure.

That's my secret... I'm always forgetting.

Jesus Chaq...stop trying to convince me Town is best wasting a lynch just killing you to stop you screwing around.

[BunnyGo]

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

I don't know... thinking over it some more, the fact we lynched the Goon is interesting to me. What if EMC is actually a more valuable mafia role?

<snip>

Out of curiosity: what role is more valuable now?

[Chaqa]

Why don't you do an EON analysis assuming EMC is both town and scum, and see how big a difference that makes. Then maybe I'll consider your suggestion to lynch him solely for information.

That sounds like effort.

[Chaqa]

There's a difference between watching someone change their reads in realtime, and someone forgetting their reads under pressure.

That's my secret... I'm always forgetting.

Jesus Chaq...stop trying to convince me Town is best wasting a lynch just killing you to stop you screwing around.

You've missed out on several of my Marvel movie quotes this game. (such as Why is Gamora?) and now this one ((

[Chaqa]

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

I don't know... thinking over it some more, the fact we lynched the Goon is interesting to me. What if EMC is actually a more valuable mafia role?

<snip>

Out of curiosity: what role is more valuable now?

This... actually, good point. They probably don't have any "more" valuable roles left. Maybe it wasn't a bus.

[Jamiet99uk]

DAY ONE FINAL VOTES

Temasek22 (7) brainbomb, kgray, Jamiet99uk, bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, Chaqa, damo666
worcej (4) BunnyGo, Fluminator, Balki Bartokomous, Foxcastle
brainbomb (3) Vecna, bo_sox48, Temasek22
Foxcastle (1) worcej
Chaqa (1) xorxes
No‑Lynch (1) Pjandy
Fluminator (1) e.m.c^42

Non-vote: Bob McBob (sulit)


DAY TWO FINAL VOTES

Vecna (9) Balki Bartokomous, kgray, damo666, Fluminator, Foxcastle, Chaqa, xorxes, Vecna, bozotheclown
Pjandy (2) worcej, rdrivera2005
bo_sox48 (2) BunnyGo, Jamiet99uk

Non-votes: bo_sox48, e.m.c^42, Pjandy, BobMcBob


DAY THREE FINAL VOTES

BobMcBob (7) xorxes, worcej, bozotheclown, BunnyGo, Balki Bartokomous, Fluminator, e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (6) damo666, rdrivera2005, Jamiet99uk, kgray, Foxcastle, Chaqa
Chaqa (1) BobMcBob

Non-votes: Pjandy

[BunnyGo]

That's my secret... I'm always forgetting.

Jesus Chaq...stop trying to convince me Town is best wasting a lynch just killing you to stop you screwing around.

You've missed out on several of my Marvel movie quotes this game. (such as Why is Gamora?) and now this one ((

I mentioned Gamora. I noticed this hulk. Stop being “UBERMENSCH TOWN”. We don’t need or want one. This isn’t a super hero movie where we all wait for the ubermensch to save us. We need team. Trust. Town.

Do the ISO that Balki and Flum asked for. It’ll *actually* help.

[Chaqa]

Jesus Chaq...stop trying to convince me Town is best wasting a lynch just killing you to stop you screwing around.

You've missed out on several of my Marvel movie quotes this game. (such as Why is Gamora?) and now this one ((

I mentioned Gamora. I noticed this hulk. Stop being “UBERMENSCH TOWN”. We don’t need or want one. This isn’t a super hero movie where we all wait for the ubermensch to save us. We need team. Trust. Town.

Do the ISO that Balki and Flum asked for. It’ll *actually* help.

There's a tool for every task. I'm not an ISO guy, I haven't done an ISO or thought one useful in years. I'm a vote analysis guy.

I'll do one of those tomorrow (Day 4). Until then, I'm busy.

[worcej]

Lengthy Post Warning - please read!

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

Agree with the concept of the mislynches - there may be some merit on the flip

These vote movements stick out to me the most from EOD:

1. @1:00 to EOD - rdr does Bob➙Flu - 3 e.m, 3 Cha, 2 Bob, 2 Flu
2. @00:34 to EOD - Jam does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 Cha, 3 e.m, 1 rdr
3. @00:34 to EOD - Fox does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 e.m, 3 Cha, 1 rdr
4. @00:14 to EOD - Bun does Bob➙Bal - 4 e.m, 4 Bob, 3 Cha, 1 xor
5. @00:04 to EOD - Fox does Cha➙e.m - 5 e.m, 5 Bob, 2 Cha, 1 xor

General comments of these votes/EOD actions:

1. Rdr's move was a bit before EOD, but it stuck out as weird because it happened shortly after my vote made Bob tied for leading wagon when the focus up until that point had been Chaqa and EMC. My gut said he was trying to get Bob out of the tied top and tried to focus attention on emc or Chaqa, which could be confirmed by his vote to EMC 17 minutes later. Why did he not go back to Bob instead? I think his moves were 'safe' and would not draw much suspicion, which is something scum!rdr does do on a regular basis.
2. Jamie moves to keep the vote 'interesting' - this lowers the count on bob, but keeps him as a top wagon. His following posts somewhat attacking emc as being a coward and not useful, which I think could be trying to bait some people back onto EMC. Near EOD, he comments that no one tried to save Bob however I think this isn't true because Rdr, Fox, and Bunny made moves that can be painted as saving bob.
3. Fox's two moves - first one was off to EMC with no visible context. His original vote on bob was to make the wagons closer, which could be a pretty damn easy busing attempt with an easy out if needed, which he does. He even recommends someone move off bob @ 00:31 before EOD when the vote was 5 bob, 4 emc, 3 chaqa. I think recommending this at that point is ridiculous because it gives the full scum team a chance to manipulate the vote (AKA: I see no town reason to suggest a close wagon like this). He eventually lowers EMC to vote chaqa, which leads us to.... the second vote - with 00:04 he moves back to EMC, which ties the vote between emc and bob. I'll comment that Fox was consistent with his dislike for voting EMC, but I think this consistency does not clear him in any way - if anything I am more inclined to lynch Fox over EMC in order to verify the above and (slightly) clear EMC.
4. Bunny's move is similar to the issue with Fox/Jaime, in that the move made EMC a possible other lynch. He eventually ended on Bob (@00:11), which is somewhat kudos because it made bob the leading wagon again. I don't think scum!bunny would need to do this because there was enough comments that if he wanted to go to EMC, he could've and contributed easily to that lynch.

So, that all being said: In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny. My attention is on Fox/Jaime/rdr for the lynch on D4.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Worcej: I was deliberately attempting to tie the vote, to see how people would react. You want to scumread me for that? Meh, ok. But I am not scum.

And you know how to spell my name.

[worcej]

@Worcej: I was deliberately attempting to tie the vote, to see how people would react. You want to scumread me for that? Meh, ok. But I am not scum.

And you know how to spell my name.

I ALWAYS second guess and change your name around! I literally had it as Jamie and then changed it to Jaime because I thought I had it wrong! Bah!!!!

FWIW - I am only you and that group needs to be looked at. I personally don't think close wagons is wise when we have no information to operate off of. Even you, if you were in my shoes, would look back at your movement as possible scum-saving.

[Jamiet99uk]

Even you, if you were in my shoes, would look back at your movement as possible scum-saving.

Perhaps I would, yes.

However, I believe that EMC is also scum. I think there is genuinely a good possibility that it was S v S. Bozo agrees with me, I notice.

[Chaqa]

Dammit I wanted to do that analysis.

FWIW, I tend to think Fox looks worst out of that EoD.

xorxes I could see being a scum ring leader on a bussing maneuver as well. He was the first one, but he was also GONE for most of the action. Easy town credit.

[worcej]

Even you, if you were in my shoes, would look back at your movement as possible scum-saving.

Perhaps I would, yes.

However, I believe that EMC is also scum. I think there is genuinely a good possibility that it was S v S. Bozo agrees with me, I notice.

Not removing that possibility from existing, however I think it is unlikely with the fact that one of the scum is a traitor. I would rather lynch Fox to try to indirectly verify EMC since Fox has a history of focusing on someone as town and a lot of D3 was him being interested in EMC.

[worcej]

Dammit I wanted to do that analysis.

FWIW, I tend to think Fox looks worst out of that EoD.

xorxes I could see being a scum ring leader on a bussing maneuver as well. He was the first one, but he was also GONE for most of the action. Easy town credit.

You're welcome?

You can do your own analysis too you know...