M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Squigs44]

OK squigs: how do you feel about their abilities to argue terribly like this? Does Balki keep up this weird push as town? As scum? Based on Fox's claims that he wouldn't join at all until Balki dropped, does that make this frustration more towny? more scummy? more NAI?

@Vecna: same questions. You were talking about Balki before he even showed up and have disappeared since. Did he sub in for you?

I only really remember one game with Balki, where he was scum and did some fake theater stuff. I think the Balki/Fox scum team theory is too much tin foil to follow for now, but I also wouldn't rule out either of them individually being scum.

I once townread Fox because he put a lot of work into making a spreadsheet and I thought there was no way scum would do that, and yet Fox was scum. So I think scum Fox is very capable of putting that case together and being frustrated. I also think the frustration could be real even if Fox is scum. Like it's arguably more annoying if you get caught as scum due to a railroading player instead of getting caught doing something scummy.

Tl;dr - I don't think the Balki/Fox dramatics give us the best info on their alignments, and we should consider the rest of their games collectively. Fox is probably null for me now. As Balki pointed out, he's kinda lived on the fringes and has played pretty standard. Balki I'm leaning slight scum recently, mostly based on feel.

Either way I think there are better options today.
Lfischl is both lurking and giving contradictory posts.
I voted Jamie early for a reason, and recently they have latched onto this Damo tunnel in a weird way. I would have expected Jamie to give more comprehensive thoughts at this point.
I feel less good about a damo vote because I think it's a 50/50 on his alignment and if we wagon him again and he flips town we have very little information (basically spread the wagons).
I don't hate Ezio or Flum wagons either.

Does the Fisch wagon give us anything?

Hopefully scum

[foodcoats]

Things 2:
Demon is either scum or town tunneling me. Of the two scum seems more likely.

Thing 4 (aka elaborating on thing 2):
The kak kill basically perfectly sets me up for wagoning today. Demon is extremely enthusiastic about scumreading and wagoning me. First post:

"KAK
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

SWING THE SUBS CAN WAIT< RESPECT THE DEAD

vote DiplomacyandWarfare

end"
(#s redacted so I don't accidently vote myself)
Post of "reasons" for voting me:
"1) Respect the dead. Kak wanted D&W.
2) It kinda doesn't. But D&W's hard on for kak into claiming he knew he was town all along on D2 is a textbook distance attempt, esp. when I've gone full rabid dog and there was a call for him.
3) D&W played no small part in HB flipping instead of damo, then immediately hedged the defense post flip.
4) Respect the dead."

Like Demon is basically riding the kill to try to wagon me today. This, and especially the fact that he went right for it immediately after the kak kill, must be scum.

I kind of agree with this. I thought Demon’s response was a bit weird but I don’t know that I can read him well. But maybe it was just a clumsy scum move.

[damo666]

FUCK YEAH GOT EM

WOOO

I assume this was food taking the piss (predominately out of me).

Bunny and Bona, you both +1'd this. Care to explain why?

[Squigs44]

@Squiggs: On D1 I thought Damo was being surly in a way that was going to attract attention, a thing scum don't want to do, so based on that I concluded he wasn't scum.

The foodcoats made his "WOOO" post, and the only way that makes sense to me is if he was celebrating a scum victory in a TvS EOD, ergo, Damo is scum.

Also, while I thought Damo was being too blatant about it to be scum, surly Damo has been scum-Damo in the past.

You don't think foodcoats could have been making a joke there?

And if surly damo has been scum-damo in the past, why didn't that factor into your read before when you went out of your way to push his opposition wagon? Seems like conf!bias at best

I mixed up where I was posting several games ago, and it's shocking how easily people will believe it is a joke.

Also, is it a good joke? Does it indicate sarcasm in some way, like he's addressing town? Is there evidence of some buildup of emotion prior to the flip? I don't think so, so where does this level of all-caps WOOO-ing come from from? When called out on it, why is his reaction to claim that he's scum (making it a joke, sure), rather than explain that he was being sardonic at town? After he makes the "joke" that he's scum, why does he feel the need to clarify he's not scum? That strikes me as nervous rather than annoyed.

As I said, I thought Damo was being too overtly surly in a way that I didn't think he'd do as scum.

Question for you, Squiggs. Which is more townie: someone who has a lot of uncertainty in their reads and makes u-turns and suddenly changes their mind, or someone whose reads are measured and overall consistent and evolve steadily?

Evolution is good, if it has a good reason to evolve. I'm trying to figure out the reason for your evolution because you didn't make it clear and it seemed to hinge on foodcoats making a massive scumslip

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm not very caught up but let me start here:

##vote Diplomacy

I truly have no idea what's going on being almost 40 pages behind. I don't have the time to get caught up on the whole game this evening, but his D1 post count is beyond normal to me for his slot and I think he may be excited scum.

Again - I am not following the damo wagon here. Using the bot, Jamie's at least saying he's scum and crusaded HB. Col7by doesn't explain his reasoning well enough for me to see and lfischl is voting damo because of HB.

Was damo really the main manipulator for the HB wagon? He voted him first but then wasn't a deciding vote to ensure he died... I don't see the context to blame him for it.

Iso Damo's posts from D1.

You will see him endvoting Hamilton quite early on, and repeatedly pushing him without providing any real reasons.

He was screaming "Hamilton is obvscum!!!!" in repeated posts, yet when questioned, would not elaborate.

He was a big driver of the Hamilton wagon.

Damo is obvscum!!!!

In all seriousness, Jamie, how would you describe damo’s scum game? If you were describing it prior to the start of this game? How would you contrast it to his town game?

Town Damo is usually a very low-impact poster D1, who tends to ramp up the quality and quantity of his posts through D2 and D3. He gets involved a bit if asked questions but often doesn't stand out. He has a habit of naked voting (by which I mean, voting without explanation), but will usually explain his reasoning when asked. In the past I have sometimes clashed with Town Damo early in games because I have been critical of his lack of action, or I have been annoyed by naked votes.

Once he has data available to him, Town Damo starts to go into computational analysis mode and starts spitting out pairs and percentages and theories; sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but usually interesting.

Damo traditionally does not like rolling scum. Scum Damo deals with this anxiety by being a bit more jokey and can also be a bit more abrasive. Scum Damo, I think, sometimes comes across as quite inorganic and can struggle to articulate the reasons for his reads or votes. However, Scum Damo does not panic when under pressure; he does not flap or flail.

[Yoyoyozo]

The idea that people think that out of 2 people chosen on DAY 1, we somehow caught scum is… inspiring. I think we were on the right track towards the beginning of D2 and we should investigate everyone on the Damo wagon.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE Damo

Why?

He's obvscum!!!!

Read his posts!

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Alr I'm seeing quite a bit of balki scumreads and no balki wagon. Let's get this going!
##VOTE BALKI

[Squigs44]

Is there any chance foodcoats is scum and damo is town?

[Jamiet99uk]

Wild Magic: Once per game, may choose to freeze all votes for the day, allowing only people who have not voted to still place a vote. This will be processed as a live action.

Yike.

##Unvote

(But my voting INTENTION is to vote for Damo - who is Obvscum!!!!)

I don't think we should hold votes out of fear that Wild Magic might lock us in. Wild Magic might ruin one day (if it even exists), but if people are consistently holding votes and unvoting, that's going to weaken our ability to analyze the entire game.

Okay, faceless one.

##Vote Damo

[foodcoats]

FUCK YEAH GOT EM

WOOO

I assume this was food taking the piss (predominately out of me).

Bunny and Bona, you both +1'd this. Care to explain why?

It was not targeted at you damo.

It was my way of expressing that HB is major LHF in this meta right now and people just uncritically scum read him and I think they are all doo doo heads.

[Jamiet99uk]

To me Damo is pretty consistent across all games, so what's different about Damo this time that has you tunneling in him?

I know you’re asking Jamie but I should contribute to this because I agree with Jamie that Damo is obvscum.

Damo’s tonal range is very flat as town. He is “unflappable.” He is more “extremified” when scum. In the past I have IDd him based on jokes, and also illogicalities that he would not make as town, because as town he is exceedingly objective.

Here we have seen him act obtuse and not explain his actions, where typical town damo is incredibly straightforward and direct.

Until the last couple minutes, it looked like the wagon could go either way between Damo and HB. Do you think mafia are okay with letting Damo get that close to death when in the chaos it would have been easy to swing on any other wagon?
Who do you think looks bad if Damo is scum?

I know you’re asking Foodcoats but I should contribute to this because I agree with Foodcoats that Damo is obvscum.

If Damo flips scum I think that looks bad for one of Vecna, Sweet, or Dipand.

[damo666]

I'm not very caught up but let me start here:



Iso Damo's posts from D1.

You will see him endvoting Hamilton quite early on, and repeatedly pushing him without providing any real reasons.

He was screaming "Hamilton is obvscum!!!!" in repeated posts, yet when questioned, would not elaborate.

He was a big driver of the Hamilton wagon.

Damo is obvscum!!!!

In all seriousness, Jamie, how would you describe damo’s scum game? If you were describing it prior to the start of this game? How would you contrast it to his town game?

Town Damo is usually a very low-impact poster D1, who tends to ramp up the quality and quantity of his posts through D2 and D3. He gets involved a bit if asked questions but often doesn't stand out. He has a habit of naked voting (by which I mean, voting without explanation), but will usually explain his reasoning when asked. In the past I have sometimes clashed with Town Damo early in games because I have been critical of his lack of action, or I have been annoyed by naked votes.

Once he has data available to him, Town Damo starts to go into computational analysis mode and starts spitting out pairs and percentages and theories; sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but usually interesting.

Damo traditionally does not like rolling scum. Scum Damo deals with this anxiety by being a bit more jokey and can also be a bit more abrasive. Scum Damo, I think, sometimes comes across as quite inorganic and can struggle to articulate the reasons for his reads or votes. However, Scum Damo does not panic when under pressure; he does not flap or flail.

I think that's a reasonably accurate analysis.

[Jamiet99uk]

Here's my theory: Damo is scum. Foodcoats slipped up an crossposted his "WOOO" to the wrong thread and then tried to play it off. Foodcoats is now bussing Damo to further cover his tracks.

Let's kill Damo and find out.

[damo666]

##VOTE Damo

Why?

He's obvscum!!!!

Read his posts!

[Squigs44]

Damo flipping would resolve a lot of things currently being discussed, but a runaway train on damo, especially if he flips town, gives us very little info

[damo666]

Is there any chance foodcoats is scum and damo is town?

5/24

[Foxcastle]

You don't think foodcoats could have been making a joke there?

And if surly damo has been scum-damo in the past, why didn't that factor into your read before when you went out of your way to push his opposition wagon? Seems like conf!bias at best

I mixed up where I was posting several games ago, and it's shocking how easily people will believe it is a joke.

Also, is it a good joke? Does it indicate sarcasm in some way, like he's addressing town? Is there evidence of some buildup of emotion prior to the flip? I don't think so, so where does this level of all-caps WOOO-ing come from from? When called out on it, why is his reaction to claim that he's scum (making it a joke, sure), rather than explain that he was being sardonic at town? After he makes the "joke" that he's scum, why does he feel the need to clarify he's not scum? That strikes me as nervous rather than annoyed.

As I said, I thought Damo was being too overtly surly in a way that I didn't think he'd do as scum.

Question for you, Squiggs. Which is more townie: someone who has a lot of uncertainty in their reads and makes u-turns and suddenly changes their mind, or someone whose reads are measured and overall consistent and evolve steadily?

Evolution is good, if it has a good reason to evolve. I'm trying to figure out the reason for your evolution because you didn't make it clear and it seemed to hinge on foodcoats making a massive scumslip

As someone who has made a massive scumslip and was then rewarded with victory, yeah, I think that's what happened. Look at his reaction to this theory: more nervous joking.

[Col7by]

I only really remember one game with Balki, where he was scum and did some fake theater stuff. I think the Balki/Fox scum team theory is too much tin foil to follow for now, but I also wouldn't rule out either of them individually being scum.

I once townread Fox because he put a lot of work into making a spreadsheet and I thought there was no way scum would do that, and yet Fox was scum. So I think scum Fox is very capable of putting that case together and being frustrated. I also think the frustration could be real even if Fox is scum. Like it's arguably more annoying if you get caught as scum due to a railroading player instead of getting caught doing something scummy.

Tl;dr - I don't think the Balki/Fox dramatics give us the best info on their alignments, and we should consider the rest of their games collectively. Fox is probably null for me now. As Balki pointed out, he's kinda lived on the fringes and has played pretty standard. Balki I'm leaning slight scum recently, mostly based on feel.

Either way I think there are better options today.
Lfischl is both lurking and giving contradictory posts.
I voted Jamie early for a reason, and recently they have latched onto this Damo tunnel in a weird way. I would have expected Jamie to give more comprehensive thoughts at this point.
I feel less good about a damo vote because I think it's a 50/50 on his alignment and if we wagon him again and he flips town we have very little information (basically spread the wagons).
I don't hate Ezio or Flum wagons either.

Does the Fisch wagon give us anything?

Hopefully scum

I liked the damo vote but now not in love that fisch is on the wagon with me when I don’t feel great about fisch. I feel like a lot of the more lurkers on the damo train and is not a hill I’d like to die on. I think a train at EOD1 had a scum but analyzing which one is the hard part. I think we get the most info voting out one of them though and see who voted it on it.

[damo666]

FUCK YEAH GOT EM

WOOO

I assume this was food taking the piss (predominately out of me).

Bunny and Bona, you both +1'd this. Care to explain why?

It was not targeted at you damo.

It was my way of expressing that HB is major LHF in this meta right now and people just uncritically scum read him and I think they are all doo doo heads.

OK