M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Chaqa]

Yeah where is everyone?

Tomorrow will be my most active day of the phase. I’m off work and will be at an amusement park / campground on Friday and Saturday so I’m hoping to clear my name tomorrow

[damo666]

I've slept on it.

##vote Chaqa

Explanatory post to follow.

[damo666]

Let us examine the possible Chaqa JBH pairings, its implications for scum gun distribution and any problems arising.

Firstly we know townChaqa scumJBH is impossible since their was only 1 shot n3. There would have been no reason for scum to hold a shot nights 1 or 2 so therefore no reason to not for for the win N3.

Now let's examine the opposite, scumChaqa town JBH. This implies a scum gun distribution of N1 N2 N2. Not unreasonable. However, why on earth would they shoot JBH rather than Jamie n2? They would have had to be prepared for JBH to die and flip town. This would expose 2 scum guns n2 so in order to give room for Chaqa to be town they must have planned for a false n3 rose claim. As well as giving Chaqa some cover the claimant becomes quasi clear. The fact that JBH was rose saved rather than killed gives no reason to stop the planned N3 rose claim. Surely with this pairing Jamie would have been shot n2 with a N3 rose claim. I contend that the JBH shot makes absolutely no sense in this scenario and I reject it.

THEREFORE CHAQA AND JBH ARE BOTH THE SAME ALIGNMENT

Now let us consider both town. This would imply a gun distribution of n2 n2 n3. Again the shot on JBH n2 makes no sense. It means that by using your n3 gun you townclear Chaqa. Why would you not simply kill Chaqa n2 allowing yourselves a N3 kill? I therefore dismiss town town.

So, Chaqa and JBH are BOTH SCUM!!

Let's examine this. It implies a scum gun distribution of N1 n2 n3 which I purport is the most natural. It explains the shot on JBH (there wasn't one) and they can't use their n3 gun because killing someone else makes them both look guilty.
I think after N1 Chaqa realised it was highly likely that there were no town guns (quite likely since picking a rose os kinda auto) so therefore had to manufacture a shot in order to give him room to be town.

It is in Chaqa's maverick nature to claim gun as scum. I think he assumed there would be at least 1 town gunner and his plan backfired. JBH would be a naturally compliant partner as a noob and leaving Jamie alive after n2 explains JBH's attack on him, probably under instruction from Chaqa. His attack on Chaqa himself was probably also sanctioned by Chaqa in the n2 chat.

Now who is third man? I can't see ghug putting up with such play, red would rail against it but give Chaqa the right to do it, worcej might go for it, EMC would roll over and run with it and brain would of course absolutely love it. If Brian was gun n3 this might explain the day 1 panic. My likelihood order for third man is:
braincel
EMC
Worcej
Rdr
Ghug


If there is a gaping hole in my reasoning I am sure someone will tell me.

This is how I see the rest if the game panning out.

D4 kill Chaqa 5-2
N4 NK Damo 4-2
D5 kill JBH 4-1
N5 NK ghug 3-1

rdr worcej EMC braincel left.

Good luck to the 3 town in that 4.

[damo666]

Sorry, couple of autocorrects/typos in there.

go for not for for

rdr not red

Brain not Brian

[damo666]

Unfortunately VCA does nothing to help identify the third man but equally here is nothing to detract from the scumChaqa scumJBH hypothesis.

[rdrivera2005]

I'm not convinced Chaqa is scum but if we mk today I'd rather it be him someone else because if we mk someone else we will still have that doubt over him. It's unfortunate if Chaqa is town but it's an inevitable consequence of his claim.

My mind is made up.

His move off JBH yesterday was incredibly scummy upon review and I feel pretty good about him being scum.

But if we are wrong, we lose - we are effectively vanilla and now at milo. I am a proponent of doing a no kill and forcing scum to bring us into kilo.

Do others agree?

There is no benefit of KILO over MILO in this circumstance. All it does it make scum's percentage of overall voters higher.

##Vote worcej

He knows better

Agree with you on this. With 3 scum left it's no good a no-kill. Maybe later if we guess right the next two days.

##vote Chaqa

[rdrivera2005]

Let us examine the possible Chaqa JBH pairings, its implications for scum gun distribution and any problems arising.

Firstly we know townChaqa scumJBH is impossible since their was only 1 shot n3. There would have been no reason for scum to hold a shot nights 1 or 2 so therefore no reason to not for for the win N3.

Now let's examine the opposite, scumChaqa town JBH. This implies a scum gun distribution of N1 N2 N2. Not unreasonable. However, why on earth would they shoot JBH rather than Jamie n2? They would have had to be prepared for JBH to die and flip town. This would expose 2 scum guns n2 so in order to give room for Chaqa to be town they must have planned for a false n3 rose claim. As well as giving Chaqa some cover the claimant becomes quasi clear. The fact that JBH was rose saved rather than killed gives no reason to stop the planned N3 rose claim. Surely with this pairing Jamie would have been shot n2 with a N3 rose claim. I contend that the JBH shot makes absolutely no sense in this scenario and I reject it.

THEREFORE CHAQA AND JBH ARE BOTH THE SAME ALIGNMENT

Now let us consider both town. This would imply a gun distribution of n2 n2 n3. Again the shot on JBH n2 makes no sense. It means that by using your n3 gun you townclear Chaqa. Why would you not simply kill Chaqa n2 allowing yourselves a N3 kill? I therefore dismiss town town.

So, Chaqa and JBH are BOTH SCUM!!

Let's examine this. It implies a scum gun distribution of N1 n2 n3 which I purport is the most natural. It explains the shot on JBH (there wasn't one) and they can't use their n3 gun because killing someone else makes them both look guilty.
I think after N1 Chaqa realised it was highly likely that there were no town guns (quite likely since picking a rose os kinda auto) so therefore had to manufacture a shot in order to give him room to be town.

It is in Chaqa's maverick nature to claim gun as scum. I think he assumed there would be at least 1 town gunner and his plan backfired. JBH would be a naturally compliant partner as a noob and leaving Jamie alive after n2 explains JBH's attack on him, probably under instruction from Chaqa. His attack on Chaqa himself was probably also sanctioned by Chaqa in the n2 chat.

Now who is third man? I can't see ghug putting up with such play, red would rail against it but give Chaqa the right to do it, worcej might go for it, EMC would roll over and run with it and brain would of course absolutely love it. If Brian was gun n3 this might explain the day 1 panic. My likelihood order for third man is:
braincel
EMC
Worcej
Rdr
Ghug


If there is a gaping hole in my reasoning I am sure someone will tell me.

This is how I see the rest if the game panning out.

D4 kill Chaqa 5-2
N4 NK Damo 4-2
D5 kill JBH 4-1
N5 NK ghug 3-1

rdr worcej EMC braincel left.

Good luck to the 3 town in that 4.

Damo, I agree with your conclusion on Chaqa but don't understand your second scenario (scum Chaqa town JBH) reasoning. If scum have no gun N3 they can't claim a rose N3 because only one shot would be fired (exactly what happened). So, if they choose gun N1 N2 N2 and Chaqa is scum they can't claim a rose N3.
If Chaqa flips scum as we think we will, we have to consider if it's more likely they shot a town JBH N2 or JBH is scum and they didn't shot on N3.

[damo666]

@rdr

In the scumChaqa town scenario you are ofc right. They can't do the n3 rose claim because there won't be a shot to justify it.

Let me rethink that scenario.

[dargorygel]

The parrot had beaked his way out from the belly of the stupid cat.

As he limps towards the blackboard, he contemplates things. Stupid cat. no one ever calls a parrot a stupid parrot. Because parrots merely repeat what others say. So referring to a parrot as, ‘stupid’ is calling someone ELSE stupid. There is even a word that some pirate of the English language made up for this activity: Paroting.

He decides to not write on the board.

He’ll just say what the vote tally is. Repeating what he's heard.

SQUAWK… three people are voting for Chalk. Worst, damn no SQUAWK, and hard de hard river SQUAWK.

Chalker is voting SQUAWK for Worser SQUAWK

Ugh is voting for SQUAWK har de har de river.

The parrot leaves.

VOTE COUNT 4.01
Chaqa: (3) worcej, damo666, rdrivera2005
worcej (1) Chaqa
rdrivera2005 (1) ghug

[damo666]

The scumChaqa town JBH scenario.

It does makes sense to let Jamie live because then he has the possibility of being scum with a rose meaning just 2 scum guns and a scenario where it is possible for Chaqa to appear town.

So scumChaqa tòwnJBH backbone the table.

I will revisit this with possible scumteams.

Anyway Chaqa is deffo scum and he must go today.

[damo666]

damn phone

backbone = back on the

[Johnny Big Horse]

Here is a hint as you try to figure it out.

I am town. Go from there.

[worcej]

That's not what happened.

Then what do you believe happened?

It's not a matter of what I "believe happened". Your facts are wrong, and it's a bit concerning to me that you'd be this lazy at KILO. Go back and read, and then let's talk.

So I screwed up my exact reasoning (because I interpreted Chaqa's vote movement because rdr was there), but that doesn't change Chaqa still looks scummy for his vote movement at the time even with that.

Chaqa looks like he presented very weak cases and was willing to settle on HB or JBH. In fact, he put more effort into justifying a vote on JBH, yet moved to HB finally at the end of day. It seemed opportunistic and wrought with the vibe of 'soft bus and bail' that we've seen Chaqa do with the likes of kgray several times.

Are my facts still wrong or do you just not agree, which is it now?

[damo666]

Here is a hint as you try to figure it out.

I am town. Go from there.

If you are town it also YOUR job to figure it out. Who do you think is the scumteam?

[Johnny Big Horse]

Here is a hint as you try to figure it out.

I am town. Go from there.

If you are town it also YOUR job to figure it out. Who do you think is the scumteam?

You are asking me? I have given up trying. My gut instincts are wrong. Mafia in my mind was Jamie, Damo and Chaqa. I tried to justify it with arguments that are impossible. But then again, you are trying, yes, you use logic, yes, but your arguments are frequently terrible or just wrong.

My strategy was to follow Xorxes.

The only help I can give at this point is: I am not mafia.

I think all I can do is lurk and learn.

[Johnny Big Horse]

But I cannot blame you Damo or think less of you for flailing. BB had all kinds of theories, a new one every 3 hours. Some of which seemed right. Nobody seems to have a clue.

This is a very difficult game, and by reading what you guys are writing, it seems to be really subtle nuances that betray Mafia. I am a caveman in some ways and miss subtlety.

All I can do is learn right now. I want to come back and be useful to the town, or absolutely devastating to the town if I get to be mafia.

[damo666]

But I cannot blame you Damo or think less of you for flailing. BB had all kinds of theories, a new one every 3 hours. Some of which seemed right. Nobody seems to have a clue.

This is a very difficult game, and by reading what you guys are writing, it seems to be really subtle nuances that betray Mafia. I am a caveman in some ways and miss subtlety.

All I can do is learn right now. I want to come back and be useful to the town, or absolutely devastating to the town if I get to be mafia.

OK thanks

[damo666]

JBH comes across very much as noobtown.

I am going to work on the assumption that Chaqa is scum and JBH is town.

Possible scumteams to follow....

[Johnny Big Horse]

JBH comes across very much as noobtown.

I am going to work on the assumption that Chaqa is scum and JBH is town.

Possible scumteams to follow....

This is a good basis.

[Chaqa]

JBH comes across very much as noobtown.

I am going to work on the assumption that Chaqa is scum and JBH is town.

Possible scumteams to follow....

Then truly we are doomed.