M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[foodcoats]

D&D classes poll:

BobMcBob - minotaur paladin
bozotheclown - human fighter
brainbomb
BunnyGo - orc rogue
damo666
e.m.c^42
flash2015
foodcoats - human mage
Foxcastle
Jamiet99uk
Kakarroto - half-elf cleric/bard/druid/rogue/paladin
KalelChase - human bard
Kitsune - halfling ranger
Nephthys
rdrivera2005
Squigs44 - barbarian warlock
Vecna
xorxes

Bozo did try to crumb he was the cop here. Squigs and I chose the weirdest options (Bob a close third). Kak chose the most varied and useless option. Kalel, Kit, and Food all chose legitimate playable options (besides Bozo). Like they were trying to fly under the radar with Bozo and Food maybe?

No he didn't. He said he'd never played so I told him he should probably play a human fighter. lol

[flash2015]

Well no, I'm not sure, but other people seem pretty convinced one of us has to be scum. I can't pinpoint where it originated from (damo I think?), but a few people agree. I think if you're not scum then damo has to be scum.

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling we've been put at each other. Why don't you join me with Flash?

I dunno, if you're not scum then I think damo may be a better lynch. And people keep scumreading me for changing my vote. I don't know why... but they do. I may change later but for now...

You are learning. I think there is an over-emphasis on vote change analysis.

[foodcoats]

Foodcoats Study
M47 - Scum
11 posts day 1

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... =foodcoats

Trememdous ISO. very towny. rich fluid investigative style. Sharp, focused, and consistent.

And I am skipping to the end. Foodcoats was phenomenal. turns out he was scum this game and I was not aware!


M48
high in volume, 123 posts d1.
shorter posts, less questions more attacking.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... =foodcoats

died early, lesser gladiator. town.


M49 - Town
mid volume day 1. 49 posts
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... =foodcoats
Town

This could be wrong, but the problem is that if we are right about Vapor, scum can manipulate the mechanics of the game with the infinity stones to save Vapor, force another mislynch, and STILL not reveal the rest of the scum team, meaning we start tomorrow even further back than we are today.
Page 227 : g=49&part=Day%204&user=foodcoats

urgent, out front, leader-like.



M53 CURRENT GAME
Foodcoats
Day 1 - 23 posts
spammy, sarcastic, unhelpful,

And this:

I don't really like the emc wagon. I am not in principle opposed to a policy lynch, because I think it is almost certain that at least one scum is lurking D1, but I think a much better option than emc is flash. emc is pretty active this game, and town!emc has shown reckless abandon in at least two games I've played to allow themselves to be lynched in favour of protecting their meta of late voting. This means that emc is an easy mislynch for scum, and also that emc isn't even really a good policy option here because, votes aside, and whether or not you like what emc has posted, they are participating at a solid level. Lynching emc here is in my eyes equal to lynching brainbomb: you can't sort them adequately yet, and they are definitely not lurking, so it's a bad play to lynch them just because you're not getting what you want from them.

##VOTE flash2015

##Vote foodcoats

FAKE NEWS. I was not town M49. I was Thanos.

[foodcoats]

No excuses, I've been busy but so have we all.

Time to get some content out while I can, instead of waiting for the imaginary time when "I have time to look through things properly".

Invariably I'm in GT by that point, and no use to anyone.

I don't have any walls for you this game, but I do have an idea of my own for how I can usefully approach the data we've collected, starting with the objectively inarguable and moving into subjective territory as time allows.

Firstly, voting record, focusing specifically on our votes for flipped scum (on Day 1) and flipped town (on Day 2).

For the sake of argument I'm weighting a vote at EoD for the lynch as being worth 2 (or -2) points and a vote earlier in the day but moving off as being worth a point in the relevant direction. No votes for the flipped lynch at any point in the day accrue no net points here.

This gives us after two days of voting and in order of townie voting:

Jamiet99uk: 2 points, after being pro-lynch on scumemc and never voting for TownBozo.
Brainbomb: 1 point, after being pro-lynch on emc but moving off and having no votes for bozo.
Kalelchase: 1 point, after being pro-lynch on emc but moving off and having no votes for bozo.
BobMcBob: 0 points, after being on both wagons at EoD.
Foxcastle: 0 points, after being on both wagons at EoD.
flash2015: 0 points, being on neither leading wagon at EoD.
foodcoats: 0 points, being on neither leading wagon at EoD.
Kitsune: 0 points, after being on both wagons at EoD.
BunnyGo: -1 points, having voted to lynch emc then moving off and being on bozo's wagon at EoD.
damo666: -2 points; he never voted to lynch emc and was on bozo's wagon at EoD.
Kakarroto: -2 points; he never voted to lynch emc and was on bozo's wagon at EoD.

This is not a complete reads list. I do know where I'm going with this, but will deliver in bite sized chunks as I have time to write this stuff up instead of a wall which no one will read.

Interestingly my first reaction here is that Jamie, Brain and Kalel seem to have a good sense for where they should be voting.

At the time of writing they are 2 on BobMcBob and 1 on unvote, so I'll consider this with my next hunt post before I decide where I want my vote for EoD.

Questions for @flash2015 and @foodcoats:

You seem to have avoided voting for lead wagons both days. Are you trying to keep a lower profile in the voting pool?

D1 Flash: voting Damo
D2 Flash: voting Kak
D3 Flash (currently): voting Kalel

@Flash: You've been on a different target every day, and never one in danger of getting lynched. If you'd been utterly convinced someone was scummy and trying to build a wagon long term I'd have expected you to stay on them. Can you explain your movement? And why should people vote to lynch KalEl today?

D1 Food: voting Brain
D2 Food: voting Brain
D3 Food (currently): voting Bob

@Food: You've been tunneling Brain for the last two days - but now you agree with him and are voting Bob. Why do you think he's right now, when you didn't before? Do you believe he's Vig, or do you think the real Vig held fire last night? If you do think Brain is scummy, why vote Bob now?

Back looking at relationships, although I'll try to keep one eye on the discussions here.

Hmmm... I don't normally like math stuff but this is really interesting.

Regarding your questions, D1 I was offline which is how I ended on a vanity and D2 I certainly thought I'd be hauling on brainbomb's rope with the best of them. There was no way I was going to lynch bozo when there was no case against him - LITERALLY, I still have not seen the case that was put against him - and he is a really good scum hunter. I even said after last game I was planning to sheep him (just didn't agree with him enough yet to do it, ha).

I completely believe brainbomb's vig claim because as I have said several times he was blatantly softing it.

[flash2015]

D1 Flash: voting Damo
D2 Flash: voting Kak
D3 Flash (currently): voting Kalel

@Flash: You've been on a different target every day, and never one in danger of getting lynched. If you'd been utterly convinced someone was scummy and trying to build a wagon long term I'd have expected you to stay on them. Can you explain your movement? And why should people vote to lynch KalEl today?

Why move on D1/D2 if I wasn't confident in the lead wagons? If I mess up and choose wrong (or even if I choose right) there will be endless requests to repeat reasoning for what may have been little more than a guess or gut feel. More interesting to just watch from the sidelines anyway.

From today, we start to get to the point where PoE analysis starts to become important. As I stated before I can't see how there wasn't AT LEAST one scum on the BobMcBob D1 wagon so that comes down to a choice between damo and Kalel. Damo appears to be putting more effort into finding scum so I have chosen Kalel, at least for now.

[foodcoats]

I think I gave damo back too much credit for brainbomb claiming vig. I like Kit's counts and it just pinged me that I'm still not seeing anything from damo. Just looking at damo's iso today and it's all "if-thens." damo has no position on the game, just conditionals.

##VOTE damo666

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE EMC.

He's got time to be here and post, and he's contributing what? Nothing. Zip. Nada. Look at his posts and find anything of substance if you can. I don't think you'll be able to. Talking about how distressed he is because of some irrelevant post that got deleted. Talking about how he doesn't have thoughts worth sharing, despite being in the top five posters.

This is emc at his worst and he can't hide behind being a newbie anymore. His signal to noise ratio is very, very poor. He wants to appear active but he is adding nothing.

Emc playing as usual.
Jamie playing as usual.
Watch for third partying of this interaction.

Covers for EMC. Were you the third party interaction we should watch out for food? Did you see any other that was shady?

This is a stupid question.

We know the identity of the third party. It was Rdrivera. He's died.

[foodcoats]

Emc playing as usual.
Jamie playing as usual.
Watch for third partying of this interaction.

Covers for EMC. Were you the third party interaction we should watch out for food? Did you see any other that was shady?

This is a stupid question.

We know the identity of the third party. It was Rdrivera. He's died.

This is irrelevant now but I did not mean the SK. Apologies for the lingo... I was borrowing a term from Apex: Legends, meaning when two teams are fighting and a third team comes to pwn the winner while they're wounded/resupplying. I meant to watch out for who/how pushes were made against you and emc based on that interaction, because I thought it was entirely typical for the two of you.

[Jamiet99uk]

Covers for EMC. Were you the third party interaction we should watch out for food? Did you see any other that was shady?

This is a stupid question.

We know the identity of the third party. It was Rdrivera. He's died.

This is irrelevant now but I did not mean the SK. Apologies for the lingo... I was borrowing a term from Apex: Legends, meaning when two teams are fighting and a third team comes to pwn the winner while they're wounded/resupplying. I meant to watch out for who/how pushes were made against you and emc based on that interaction, because I thought it was entirely typical for the two of you.

Oh ok.

I was actually accusing Bunny of being silly, not you, but ok.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE DAMO

I buddied him D1 and he didn't flinch.
He's been doing just enough to avoid being called a lurker.
But what has he done?

[foodcoats]

This is a stupid question.

We know the identity of the third party. It was Rdrivera. He's died.

This is irrelevant now but I did not mean the SK. Apologies for the lingo... I was borrowing a term from Apex: Legends, meaning when two teams are fighting and a third team comes to pwn the winner while they're wounded/resupplying. I meant to watch out for who/how pushes were made against you and emc based on that interaction, because I thought it was entirely typical for the two of you.

Oh ok.

I was actually accusing Bunny of being silly, not you, but ok.

I know, I just felt like it was an obvious mistaken term I should correct. I was basically just saying that both you and emc were town there.

[foodcoats]

If so many people seem to think that either me or Kalel is scum, I'm willing to vote Kalel. If he flips town, go ahead and lynch me, but I'm willing to take the risk to semi-clear myself, or at least hopefully get a scum lynch.

##Vote Kalel

Bob, are you convinced that one of us is scum? I'm open to the idea that we're both town. Kit's synopsis on the votes is interesting.

Well no, I'm not sure, but other people seem pretty convinced one of us has to be scum. I can't pinpoint where it originated from (damo I think?), but a few people agree. I think if you're not scum then damo has to be scum.

This is a very interesting interaction. Bob votes Kalel, Kalel pushes flash. There is no way I can see Kalel and Bob scum together this way. On the face of it Kalel looks scummier by that play. Bob actually looks good. But I think Kalel is town, so maybe they both are.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bob, are you convinced that one of us is scum? I'm open to the idea that we're both town. Kit's synopsis on the votes is interesting.

Well no, I'm not sure, but other people seem pretty convinced one of us has to be scum. I can't pinpoint where it originated from (damo I think?), but a few people agree. I think if you're not scum then damo has to be scum.

This is a very interesting interaction. Bob votes Kalel, Kalel pushes flash. There is no way I can see Kalel and Bob scum together this way. On the face of it Kalel looks scummier by that play. Bob actually looks good. But I think Kalel is town, so maybe they both are.

Kalel does not mention Flash in that interaction.

You are making increasingly weird "observations", Foopscoops.

[KalelChase]

D&D classes poll:

BobMcBob - minotaur paladin
bozotheclown - human fighter
brainbomb
BunnyGo - orc rogue
damo666
e.m.c^42
flash2015
foodcoats - human mage
Foxcastle
Jamiet99uk
Kakarroto - half-elf cleric/bard/druid/rogue/paladin
KalelChase - human bard
Kitsune - halfling ranger
Nephthys
rdrivera2005
Squigs44 - barbarian warlock
Vecna
xorxes

Bozo did try to crumb he was the cop here. Squigs and I chose the weirdest options (Bob a close third). Kak chose the most varied and useless option. Kalel, Kit, and Food all chose legitimate playable options (besides Bozo). Like they were trying to fly under the radar with Bozo and Food maybe?

I actually just listed the character I played when I played AD&D. I didn't realize this was actually part of the game.

If he was trying to crumb cop he'd put down (AD&D) Paladin.

[foodcoats]

Well no, I'm not sure, but other people seem pretty convinced one of us has to be scum. I can't pinpoint where it originated from (damo I think?), but a few people agree. I think if you're not scum then damo has to be scum.

This is a very interesting interaction. Bob votes Kalel, Kalel pushes flash. There is no way I can see Kalel and Bob scum together this way. On the face of it Kalel looks scummier by that play. Bob actually looks good. But I think Kalel is town, so maybe they both are.

Kalel does not mention Flash in that interaction.

You are making increasingly weird "observations", Foopscoops.

He votes it right afterwards. Sorry. Just pull up the iso or it's on page 117. It is clearly part of the same line of thinking/action from Kalel.

[Jamiet99uk]

This is a very interesting interaction. Bob votes Kalel, Kalel pushes flash. There is no way I can see Kalel and Bob scum together this way. On the face of it Kalel looks scummier by that play. Bob actually looks good. But I think Kalel is town, so maybe they both are.

Kalel does not mention Flash in that interaction.

You are making increasingly weird "observations", Foopscoops.

He votes it right afterwards. Sorry. Just pull up the iso or it's on page 117. It is clearly part of the same line of thinking/action from Kalel.

Explain why Kalel voting for Flash means Kalel is not scum with Bob?

[foodcoats]

Kalel does not mention Flash in that interaction.

You are making increasingly weird "observations", Foopscoops.

He votes it right afterwards. Sorry. Just pull up the iso or it's on page 117. It is clearly part of the same line of thinking/action from Kalel.

Explain why Kalel voting for Flash means Kalel is not scum with Bob?

It doesn't. What I was actually saying is that Kalel saying, "Hey Bob, maybe we're both town? I vote flash!" IS scummy of Kalel to do. And Bob's response to Kalel's olive branch - refusing to townread Kalel - feels townie. I don't see them doing this as scum-theatre; it is too nuanced. Kalel comes out worse for it and Bob comes out better for it. But based on my earlier iso of Kalel, I am still not really convinced Kalel is scum. So I am inclined to see this as meaning they are both town.

[foodcoats]

In fact I'm going to make this interesting.

##Vote Flash

Actually, ANOTHER interesting about this is, does scum!Kalel bus scum!flash here? Making the two lead wagons both scum? I don't see that either.

This actually could be good scum play by Kalel. Oof. Maybe all that noob stuff was deep cover after all.

On the one hand I don't want to believe this because I got a good vibe from Kalel, but I could be tunneling flash here because he's a lurker. And that could make a good target for scum to run up the scaffold.

[BunnyGo]

D&D classes poll:

BobMcBob - minotaur paladin
bozotheclown - human fighter
brainbomb
BunnyGo - orc rogue
damo666
e.m.c^42
flash2015
foodcoats - human mage
Foxcastle
Jamiet99uk
Kakarroto - half-elf cleric/bard/druid/rogue/paladin
KalelChase - human bard
Kitsune - halfling ranger
Nephthys
rdrivera2005
Squigs44 - barbarian warlock
Vecna
xorxes

Bozo did try to crumb he was the cop here. Squigs and I chose the weirdest options (Bob a close third). Kak chose the most varied and useless option. Kalel, Kit, and Food all chose legitimate playable options (besides Bozo). Like they were trying to fly under the radar with Bozo and Food maybe?

No he didn't. He said he'd never played so I told him he should probably play a human fighter. lol

That’s pretty funny.

[Jamiet99uk]

In fact I'm going to make this interesting.

##Vote Flash

Actually, ANOTHER interesting about this is, does scum!Kalel bus scum!flash here? Making the two lead wagons both scum? I don't see that either.

This actually could be good scum play by Kalel. Oof. Maybe all that noob stuff was deep cover after all.

On the one hand I don't want to believe this because I got a good vibe from Kalel, but I could be tunneling flash here because he's a lurker. And that could make a good target for scum to run up the scaffold.

On the other hand on the other hand on the other hand you could hedge even more, or not!!