Mafia 85: Return from Lockdown

[lfischl]

okay. I can do this.

Me too, I need to sleep first though

it's 6:20 am, sleep is for the weak

kak please go to sleep man

[Kakarroto]

I should, but I'm a leaf ...

a leaf on the wind ...

[brainbomb]

Thoughts as of the end of page 10:

town lean:
Bob
sweet
brain
Reasons: vibes

scum interest:
Frog - I mostly don't like the arrogant/bossy feel his posts have
Heart - ironically, for the reasons frog pointed out

Would be pretty odd for Bk to have given three townreads on people
who are all actually town.

[Nephthys]

Surely this is where mafia resign.

[brainbomb]

At this point everyone is null to me, except for neph. I very slightly scumread neph, because they got immediately into the mechs, which feels to me like scum thinking of a strategy beforehand and then implementing it too fast.

I could just as easily be wrong but who knows. Only neph.

Also @Frogster if you weren’t from a completely separate community I would say suspicion for another player this early is not a good look, but I digress.

ok, i can see this. add neph to the scum pool and will to the town pool

interesting here though. Not sure what to make of this

[brainbomb]

thoughts at the end of page 20:

I think Will, Kak, and Food feel townie to me, just cuz of the way that they post.

Jamie I'm unsure of. the other two games, I've seen aggression on D1 so that feels normal, but something to be watched.

The Heart and Neph thing with the mechanics talk and pointing fingers should also be monitored.

Frog i think is town, but I have a personal distaste for the tone in a lot of his posts. I'll try to check that at the door tho

brain is posing a lot and i have a small brain myself, so I'm confused and don't have an opinion here yet.

chaqa's entry posts were actually funny, and anyone reading into them are either 1) taking themselves wayyy tooo seriously or 2) trying to sow confusion

this is a towny post.

[Frogsterking]

Check this out, Foodcoats sung like a bird D1:

I'm not sure if I said this yet: Foodoats you can go please go ahead and post a full reads list with explanations sometime over the next few hours.

Asap

@Foodoats

~ s o o n ~

(Between 5 and 7 p.m. EST is dinner, bath and bed routine for the kiddo, a.k.a. “the lurking hours.”)

I'm not sure if I said this yet: Foodoats you can go please go ahead and post a full reads list with explanations sometime over the next few hours.

Firstly, Will is my strongest scumread.

Will says:

Over the last 3 games, I’ve noticed that usually people who are scummy right out of the gate tend to just be unlucky and also victims of mafia manipulation. I don’t feel that lfishl should be suspicious just because of that.

For context, there were zero votes on lfischl at the time that Will made this statement. Slightly before Will's comment, brain was scrumreading lfischl, but was also scumreading Chaqa, and Bob was townreading lfischl. Why did Will hone in to defend lfischl here when he was really just being called scum in passing?

When I asked Will about this, his responses never addressed all my questions, which I find suspicious; but more importantly, they introduced further inconsistencies. Look at the below sequence, where he says he wanted to specifically intercede for lfischl, but then he immediately says lfischl was just a convenient example.

Lots of people have been scumread (e.g., you have scumread Neph), but you interceded specifically to say that lfischl should not be scumread early, and that he might be the victim of manipulation or bad luck.

There is nowhere else that you give reasons that lfischl is townie, or why he is not scummy.

Can you please explain in more detail why you think the scumreads of lfischl are not warranted?

The current topic was lfischl. I just used them as an example

This appears, to me, to be pure self-contradiction, and Will has simply ignored my questions where I tried to get him to clarify his position.

If Will is scum, I am not sure whether lfischl is a teammate he was defending, or a townie he decided to defend to appear good. But, due to how completely random Will's defense of lfischl was, I think it is slightly more likely that, if Will is scum, lfischl is also scum.

##VOTE JustAGuyNamedWill

Translation: will is town

I'm not sure if I said this yet: Foodoats you can go please go ahead and post a full reads list with explanations sometime over the next few hours.

My second scumread is BobMcBob. As I stated elsewhere, Bob...

twice townreads lfischl:

I feel like lfischl is being his usual overly serious and hedgy self here. Seems towny.

chaqa just felt like trying to hit a post quota and act oblivious

which when he is town he is usually pretty shameless
and will flat out tell you he hasnt read, plans not to read, doesnt care about day 1 or something to that effect.

and his posts seem strangely filler and formulaic without the shamelessness of his usual meta

and lfischl seems like someone who barely plays, rarely posts, and often coasts or just lurks. he is trying and is actually forcing some things out and it seems rushed and almost like he is just doing this to benefit his scum rand as opposed to actually solving

Okay, now I've embarassed myself even more with that crosspost lol. Chaqa's entrance did feel a little weird, but I had put that down to poor execution rather than scumminess.

Fisch I thought felt the need to respond to direct questions from frogster, which feels like something he would do. He hasn't pinged me as scum!fisch with his responses, and he definitely does lurk as scum.

questions brainbomb's scumread of lfischl:

my scumreads at this present time are
lfischl
frogster
chaqa
jamie

I think bob is pretty clearly town, and sweet is also very likely town. I have some uncomfortable feelings about townreading worcej-kak-neph but nothing they said really “bothers” me necessarily.

I wasnt that impressed by Jamie posts and that could definetely also be a scumread.


my top town is probably bob just because hes a completely ridiculous person who lacks social tact and yet is incredibly charismatic in his own way

do you have any somethingburgers to back up those scumreads? (mostly fisch and chaqa)

and then votes lfischl.

Contextually, there was no discussion of lfischl at the time Bob made his vote (a page or so back, HB had mentioned he tends to misread lfischl, which Bob did not refer to). Bob does not signal that his vote is a joke, either.

I think this is very scummy and that Bob needs to explain this extreme inconsistency.

Translation: bob is town

I'm not sure if I said this yet: Foodoats you can go please go ahead and post a full reads list with explanations sometime over the next few hours.

I have three town leans at the moment: brainbomb, Nephthys, and heartthrob.

I town lean brainbomb because of the battle with Jamie over his lfischl scumread (which is too long to quote). I think it is more likely that brainbomb is town who feels strongly about their read and that they have worked hard to contribute to town, and is angry that his reads are being questioned and his perceived value to town being undermined, than that brain is scum who is vigorously defending a scumread that has been questioned; there is simply so little value for scum to lean heavily into a single scum read so early in the game when there is a base 75% chance for town to miskill.

I townlean Nephthys and heartthrob less than brainbomb, for what I'd say is a pretty marginal clue: the interaction over Nephthys's mechanical framework.

Pointing out that this list appears to only include town roles. Also, I'd argue that there isn't really a distinction between "targets target" and "specific person" since I think in both cases you just get a name back. My list is a little different from yours in at least one place but I'll hold off from posting it if people are gonna frown at a mechanics discussion this early

I very much dislike this.
1. If you read my previous post, I asked for clarification on the targets target
2. Why would I include mafia? This is for us to work out our own roles?
3. I dislike how conflict averse you are

I've pondered this quite a bit. It is obviously possible for scum to use a mechanical idea to appear to be contributing to the team without making meaningful reads. But I think the key element in this interaction is the debate over the missing mafia roles. I think it is just marginally more likely that a scum player would include the scum roles if they had made this list, as they might have a blindspot as to how that is less relevant to town. So Nephthys excluding these roles makes it look like his head is in a townie space.

I think heartthrob is more likely town from this interaction because of the "gotcha" over the missing mafia roles. I don't see someone in a mafia headspace saying "gotcha, you forgot there's scum in the game!" It seems more like heartthrob is looking for threads to pull on to see if Nephthys might be scum.

Translation: brain, nepthys and heartthrob are town

[brainbomb]

BK3K did attempt to make an impact on the game; they were snarky about having to read so much but they did do some work. they didnt play alot and they certainly pushed a few spots and none of their ideas really landed.

Up the final minute day 1 these people wanted him to die

BK3K (6) Jamiet99uk Frogsterking BobMcBob Kakarroto lfischl JustAGuyNamedWill

If BK flips mafia then immediately we would have to assume there was some bussing here.

Ignoring mech clears; if this flips town we should assume scum is excited about EOD wagons and doesnt need to move or do a whole
lot because town is in bad shape.

I suspect Jamie is scum already so this makes me think that Jamie could be bussing here and then when Jamie sees lfischl still viable; Jamie bolsters the wagon in lfischl so that this wagon has no chance of actually flipping

[Frogsterking]

Balancing out wagons, same reasons I scumread you before.

The fact that I voted for fisch? Were you feeling less convinced by the sweet wagon or did you just want to keep the wagons even? Did you notice worcej had moved his vote?

When I looked at the bot it was sweet 4 Bob 2 and I was comfortable with both wagons so I wanted to see what might occur by tying them to give future VCA.

[Frogsterking]

BK3K did attempt to make an impact on the game; they were snarky about having to read so much but they did do some work. they didnt play alot and they certainly pushed a few spots and none of their ideas really landed.

Up the final minute day 1 these people wanted him to die

BK3K (6) Jamiet99uk Frogsterking BobMcBob Kakarroto lfischl JustAGuyNamedWill

If BK flips mafia then immediately we would have to assume there was some bussing here.

Ignoring mech clears; if this flips town we should assume scum is excited about EOD wagons and doesnt need to move or do a whole
lot because town is in bad shape.

I suspect Jamie is scum already so this makes me think that Jamie could be bussing here and then when Jamie sees lfischl still viable; Jamie bolsters the wagon in lfischl so that this wagon has no chance of actually flipping

That's nonsense IMO, if BK3K really is scum then that was a town block. I also disagree with the idea that BK3K contributed anything to town, for example their big contribution last night was an awkward townsend of all people...

@Heartthrob, is BK3B tone and activity level they've shown here on-brand for them as town? Is there anything else I should know about them?

No because if she did, maybe it will be an exciting first game for her.

That's a great answer.

@BK3B:

Food town. Flavor town?

Are you saying that you have solid townreads on both chaqa and foodcoats, BK3B?

I just liked this post by food. No opinion on chaqa other than all the discussion about his opening posts meaning anything seemed flimsy to me.

This solve is coming together a little bit.

I could use help though figuring out the relationship between the likely scum slots and chaqa+sweet.

[brainbomb]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

[lfischl]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

I don't get the trump line

[Frogsterking]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

I think you should keep going with your solve, my ego is getting in the way. I have a tendency to get tunneled and I shouldn't have said your theory on the wagons was nonsense.

[brainbomb]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

I think you should keep going with your solve, my ego is getting in the way. I have a tendency to get tunneled and I shouldn't have said your theory on the wagons was nonsense.

it might be nonsense.
I actually think BK is town and the two scum are hamilton and kak. lol but thats a wild theory

[Kakarroto]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

I don't get the trump line

something something brain saying he would join a trump rally if Jamie is town or something like that. A post ... in early N1 I think?

[Kakarroto]

for the BK wagon to be an exclusively town driven voter group requires Jamie and lfischl both to be town. which isnt impossible but I really dont wanna have to become a trump supporter

I think you should keep going with your solve, my ego is getting in the way. I have a tendency to get tunneled and I shouldn't have said your theory on the wagons was nonsense.

it might be nonsense.
I actually think BK is town and the two scum are hamilton and kak. lol but thats a wild theory

well, I think I'm pretty lock town since I'm in the middle of the success chain (worcej -> me -> frog) and I HAVE to be involved with the news host, either as target or being that role. Well that assumes neither worcej nor frog lied and bob didn't get 'success' either ... or another pair got both success

but maybe BK is town and Brian and worcej are mafia. And there is a tiny mini itsy bitsy chance frog is mafia, but that requires the full house of cards to collapse, at least partially

[brainbomb]

yes. exactly.

kak im wondering if you think foodcoats and jamie should be allowed to live a while and we flip among the 75% or 50/50 wagon today.

[Kakarroto]

we could go for the %-chances, but I think we should just flip food, if there is not just something to destroy the plausibility of my list. Like, even his first message after bunnys flip was a remark how he was framed.

Also sweet and worcej might get sorted by waiting

also why would you want to flip jamie since he fits pretty fine with his return message?

[brainbomb]

we could go for the %-chances, but I think we should just flip food, if there is not just something to destroy the plausibility of my list. Like, even his first message after bunnys flip was a remark how he was framed.

Also sweet and worcej might get sorted by waiting

also why would you want to flip jamie since he fits pretty fine with his return message?

because hes clearly obvious mafia in all of his actions

[brainbomb]

eliminating food would probably give scum a chance to crawl back in this game because food is unmistakably town here. hes the vocal town leader and in ways that cant be faked at all