M1009 [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

N3 kill attempt Rivera
Roleblock on EMC

Copy/paste URL: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... rivera2005

Day 3, Page 56 : g=1009&part=Day%203&user=rdrivera2005
rdrivera2005
Day-3 27:12
page 56 / orig
↑Jamiet99uk: "Everybody is talking about Tom, Bozo, and Goldchaqa.

You know who we're not talking about, at all?

Rdrivera.

Is he so..."

Talk about me then. I am not clear nor semi clear and there is no clears in this setup (even a clear scan isn't 100% with masks).

Rivera talked a bit about the masks the night before dying. Maybe scum tinfoiled that he was a cop by this point?

Kill Grade A+
Scum suddenly roleblocks cop and taps doc in the same night. This points more to a guy like xorxes taking over calling the shots.

[bozotheclown]

bozo you had previously indicated that I was scum with xorxes if I recall correct. or scum with food.

How does goldfinger being on xorxes at end of day lead to you voting alongside xirxes instead of alongside goldfinger

By the end of the day my best guess for the scum team was goldfinger/foodcoats/​xorxes, and I voted for goldfinger because it seemed likely he was being bussed.

[brainbomb]

Im at food and xorx as last 2 scum. Like the first few nights xorxes probably suggested kills and chaqa and food shot him down. And he got bored arguing with them. then gold takes over.


From the maf qt
Goldy: We better kill bb hes turning flav slot around

Xorxes: Bb isnt pr. its probably rivera and emc.

food: ya. Xirxes is right. also I made cupcakes.

[Jamiet99uk]

My main doubt at this point concerns Xorxes. He is often an early NK as town. Yet I can see a canny scum team leaving him alive in order to create exactly this suspicion. Total WIFOM, I know.

Anyone: Did our Doc tell us who his save targets were?

the only one that matters was on himself. as it worked. and he traded his life 1 fir 1 in an endgame. seems like he did ok

Why do you think his other targets don't matter?

Am I correct in assuming he took that information to his grave?

[brainbomb]

his other targets are no more relevant than yours. like who would you have doc savved.

[Jamiet99uk]

his other targets are no more relevant than yours. like who would you have doc savved.

I don't agree.

We KNOW that Rdrivera was town. You can't yet be CERTAIN that I am town, Beancomb, unless you are scum. So if we knew who else he targeted for saves, we can look at those decisions through a clear town lens. I, for one, would be interested. I guess you're not. Ok.

[brainbomb]

his other targets are no more relevant than yours. like who would you have doc savved.

I don't agree.

We KNOW that Rdrivera was town. You can't yet be CERTAIN that I am town, Beancomb, unless you are scum. So if we knew who else he targeted for saves, we can look at those decisions through a clear town lens. I, for one, would be interested. I guess you're not. Ok.

I mean if you think riveras copreads are valuable I guess go ahead.

[brainbomb]

his first 2 saves are most likely on ppl who he thought were cop.

[brainbomb]

you can tell by his nightposts he didnt ever save xorx or tom bomb

[bozotheclown]

his other targets are no more relevant than yours. like who would you have doc savved.

I don't agree.

We KNOW that Rdrivera was town. You can't yet be CERTAIN that I am town, Beancomb, unless you are scum. So if we knew who else he targeted for saves, we can look at those decisions through a clear town lens. I, for one, would be interested. I guess you're not. Ok.

You had D4 and N4 to ask him, why are you bringing this up now?

[Jamiet99uk]

his other targets are no more relevant than yours. like who would you have doc savved.

I don't agree.

We KNOW that Rdrivera was town. You can't yet be CERTAIN that I am town, Beancomb, unless you are scum. So if we knew who else he targeted for saves, we can look at those decisions through a clear town lens. I, for one, would be interested. I guess you're not. Ok.

You had D4 and N4 to ask him, why are you bringing this up now?

Is there something you would prefer to discuss?

[xorxes]

I'll be back in a few hours, but ##vote Jamie for now.

Pretty sure the other two wagons are town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'll be back in a few hours, but ##vote Jamie for now.

Pretty sure the other two wagons are town.

I'm town.

[brainbomb]

The impeachment trial
scientology
magic the gathering
asian chicks

[Jamiet99uk]

Xorxes is a bit off this game.

[Jamiet99uk]

Things I know:

I am town.


Things I can safely assume:

EMC is genuinely the Cop.


My strongest townread out of the remaining four:

Brainbomb.


Therefore:

Two of Bozo, Foodcoats, Xorxes must be scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

@EMC:

You are the sole living TOWN PR. We CANNOT afford for you to be a cowardly non-commital wimp until the last moment, like you usually are. It just isn't good enough.

Locate your BALLS and vote your strongest scumread, and in doing so, tell us why you scumread them more than anyone else. Yeah?

YEAH.

I'll give you a helping hand: It's Xorxes, Bozo, or Foodcoats.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh actually:

@EMC: Were you Roleblocked again last night? If not, do you have a scan result this time?

[e.m.c^42]

Oh actually:

@EMC: Were you Roleblocked again last night? If not, do you have a scan result this time?

This is part of the reason why I'm scumreading you, lol

[foodcoats]

Having read Chaqfinger, today’s best lynch is Jamie. The third scum is either brainbomb or bozo, based on POE and the positioning of xorxes/bozo respectively over the course of Chaqfinger’s reads. Xorxes is basically locktown.

Day 1

Knowing now that Chaqa was scum, it is very unlikely that bozo was his teammate. bozo’s pushes were kind of ridiculous, but they were persistent, aggressive and unrelenting in a way that is just really unlikely from a scum-on-scum perspective.

Also, I think the cop catch (below) is quite astute on the part of xorxes. It’s too homed-in and dangerous for it to be likely that xorxes would call out a teammate this way.

Oh shit, I hadn't even noticed the cop was X-shot.

I feel like I can't be the only one - good catch, worc.

Chaqa the fisher: "who else has not read the Cop role like me?"

I wish. We all know I'm not psychological enough to do reaction tests or anything like that. I find scum through data and logic later on. I'm basically dead weight right now.

By contrast, the day 1 interaction between Jamie and Chaqa is jokey flimflam:

A British dentist? Talk about an oxymoron

The only moron here is you. I'm 38 years old and still have several of my own teeth.

+1

I feel slightly less good assuming that xorxes and bozo would not be so aggressive with Chaqa as teammates given Chaqa’s reads list below. I would expect Chaqa to townread at least one partner here. However, I’m more willing to read into the weak scumread of Jamie, which as will be seen later never gets picked up any further by Chaqa on night 1 or by gold in later days, instead becoming a town-nonread.

I was up coughing until like 4 AM and I feel worse after minimal sleep.

I’m town reading Bozo and xorxes right now. They seem normal.

Feeling something a bit off from Jamie .

Need more on others

EMC, vote dammit

Chaqa further reinforces the townreads of bozo and xorxes which gives me pause. I will foreshadow my later reading by noting that I think xorxes is almost impossibly scum based on the way goldfinger read xorxes. I know from the mass extinction game that Chaqa loves to bus, so it’s very possible both xorxes and bozo are town as Chaqa is more likely to scumread other scum (and hence brainbomb is higher in POE than bozo); but if just one of them, it is massively more likely to be bozo.

I missed a lot, caught up but I’m a bit delirious and just want to go back to sleep. I see EMC has cast a vote, which is good.

Can someone give me a TLDR on Neph?

POE.

And he shows up 2 hours before EOD after being away most of the day making strange accusations.

How can we have PoE on day 1? Wut

Ill vote for petty much anyone except xorxes or Bozo, FWIW.

Day 2

I don’t think that goldfinger comes out swinging with a bus of scumbuddy xorxes. This is the first quote in the line, but my conclusion is also a reflection of the fact that goldfinger’s read never wavers, which I would expect it to do if xorxes was scum.

I highly disagree that Tom's vote looks bad. It seems a fairly logical thing for him to do.

And Jamiet, for your pleasure only I shall reword.

Xorxes' behavior is inconsistent with that of his previous town games. Specifically, I find interesting the analysis of his reaction to the EOD town flip compared to his previous games. He usually spins it in a positive way for town and uses it as a springboard to hunt further. This time was different.

Knowing that goldfinger will continue to shade xorxes without end, and that rdr and Kak are town, I think goldfinger is burnishing Jamie’s star here. Goldfinger never really explains why they town read Jamie, which is extra interesting because goldfinger DOES say that "everyone else is neutral." So why wouldn't Jamie be neutral if there are no reasons to be town?

Alright, I don't have a time for a full reasoning but I'll give the SparkNotes version.

Scum reads
Xorxes
Bozo (contingent upon xorxes scumread)

Town reads
rdrivera
Kak
Jamiet

Conflicted
Tom...everything I reread made him not seem town, but scum seemed damn happy to let him hang.

Everyone else is pretty neutral at the moment. If I die, lynch xorxes.

Day 3

Not providing quotes to keep this shortish, but suffice to say the xorxes read does not evolve in any way and goldfinger goes on and on and on about it. If xorxes was scum, goldfinger would’ve turned away at some point.

However, there are a couple interesting posts from D3. goldfinger flips to town reading bozo, continues an unsupported townread of Jamie, and doesn’t mention rdr (maybe they’d already pegged rdr as a PR). The flipflopping on bozo is interesting as well, but it’s way more telling that goldfinger isn’t actually reading Jamie, just categorizing him.

I still do not see it. Why did this make you conclude I was more likely to be scum than Tom, or Tom less likely to be scum than me if you want to put it that way. Was it just because Tom was the lead wagon that the inactivity made you suspect him less?

Yes. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.

Inaction means one of two things. One - scum were happy to lynch Tom. Or Two - scum were happy to lynch anyone.

Your vote analysis from a little while ago kinda destroys option 1 though. Because maybe by pushing for something to happen I inadvertently gave scum the opportunity to save Tom. My initial read (and, I think others' as well) was that xorxes was protecting you, but I can see now where that doesn't jive.

So I can see a xorxes-Tom team. Or I can see a xorxes team without Tom, where he just wanted to take the opportunity to silence an active townie. In that case, jeez, I don't know where to look for other scum. There's got to be one amongst the emc/food/Flavbrain crowd at least.

I really don't think xorxes was bussing because I don't think Tom is scum. Day end was just too silent. D2 was between all town and scum!xorxes is just happy as a clam having set up a niiice town lynch for D3 and watching us consume ourselves in nonsense. Maybe his scumbuddy is foodcoats. The choice of xorxes' to place a token vote on might be important. Maybe not. But once xorx saw town changing votes, he felt more than comfortable enough to do the same, to silence the person he was tunneling on and who was trying to wake town up. And then he proceeded to post OMGUS scumreads during the night.

Bozo, Jamiet. You two are my top town reads as of now (because I'm assuming nobody will listen to what Tom says). Do you see this as plausible?

It is only N3 when goldfinger shades Jamie via POE:

Alright everyone, you have the luxury that I'm on a 6am train for a business trip to NY. So I got time to do an in depth look before I possibly croak tonight. Side note: if I do live, I have meetings tomorrow going like straight up to EOD and a train to catch at like 5:30, so I won't be that active then.

So, let's look at the wagons at EOD1.

Neph had Kak,damo,and Tom on it - 3 confirmed town. Plus xorxes, foodcoats, bozo, and Chaqagold.
Tom had one confirmed town on him - Neph - and two unknowns - emc and rdrivera.
Damo had a town (worcej) and an unknown (Jamiet)
Jamiet had an unknown. (Flav)

Just from looking at it, I think that scum are obviously not concentrated on one wagon. So let's keep analyzing on the assumption that no more than two scum are on a wagon, because I believe that's a safe one to make. So remember these groupings!

Now, let's look at vote movements. Chaqagold had a vote on emc for a while, with town!Kak and town!damo joining on. I think here is where we might look to find scum hopping on in the next two votes - Jamiet and Flav/bb. Jamiet in particular hops on and quickly off to vote damo, who at that point didn't have any votes against.

There was pressure on Flav early on too, but that seems to be driven by town - foodcoats joined, which might be notable, might not.

Now, at EOD there were a lot of swing votes to Neph and <b> these were all town </b>. Moreover, we know for a fact that the top three wagons were all town, so scum have no incentive to switch. The earliest votes on Neph were xorxes, town!Kak and foodcoats, in order. Bozo joins considerably later.

So, from D1 I think there's one scum in xorxes/food, one in Jamiet/Flav. The other most likely being emc. Or perhaps both in one of the pairings.

Day 2 in a second post

Day 4

There’s not much to quote here. Honestly, I think goldfinger allowed themselves to be lynched. I don’t see why he doesn’t try to clinch it otherwise, unless it was pure hubris. The kind of play was not just the play of a busy person; goldfinger literally says nothing of note other than some whinging about xorxes. My guess is scum figured they couldn’t win D4 and wanted to burn a teammate to push someone who could close it. For this reason, my other conclusion is that gold’s lynch was set to clear someone else. I need to read Day 4 again to figure that out.