MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[sweetandcool]

##UNVOTE

[bozotheclown]

Fine. It's unfortunate that I am the bodyguard. Since I have no special info.

My narrative is that I screwed up and forgot to guard N1 (I wouldn't have thought to guard ghug, so oh well). Then since Dousing was so against me, and I was becoming a controversial figure, I thought Mafia might kill someone in an attempt to cast more suspicion on me. So I started to be extra insulting towards Dousing (pretty easy when they still haven't even considered for a moment I could be town) while drumming up the probability of them being town.

I wanted Mafia to kill Dousing, so that I could successfully guard and at least vouch Dousing as town. Then during N2 Bona mentions newbs don't get NK, so I realize my plan is unlikely to succeed.

That's when I realized damo is acting like Vanilla Cop, and that they had scanned me. I figured I would do my best to tout Damo as town and also imply that they were Vanilla Cop. Then I could get my self killed by guarding them. But Mafia surprised me by hitting snowy instead.

Then today we have all of this role claiming. As I just said, I thought no matter how much I was suspected, it would absolutely have to come down to Chaqa vs Dousing. Consequently, I wanted to confuse Mafia and I wanted to see if any of them were foolish enough to hop on a Dousing wagon. Plus, a small part of me was entertaining the idea that more than one of the role claimers were lying.

I would have thought about my play against Dousing a bit more, but I wanted my reaction to look really emotional and convincing. Again, not too hard since I am extremely annoyed that Dousing has wasted the whole game not even considering I could actually have a power, and I'm extremely annoyed I've been outed.

Do you think Chaqa was fake claiming as town or mafia?

I don't know, my head is spinning because there are all kinds of scenarios I am dreaming up.

I still haven't had a chance to do a satisfying analysis, but I currently think Chaqa was fake claiming as town. It certainly seems to fit their narrative extremely neatly. But I'm not committed to that way of thinking before I have a harder look.


My main ask is that ya'll at least consider saving me for today. Vote me tomorrow if you want, but give me a chance to help.

I have an important choice to make tonight. I have to decide whether to guard the most obvious choice, or try to outguess Mafia (since they might try other than the most obvious choice). I'm not entirely sure if giving opinions on who I should guard is a good idea since it might help Mafia outguess me, but ya'll can decide whether or not giving me opinions is a good idea.

Did you consider that voting for Dousing would be taken as you not believing his claim because his scan on you was invalid, or is that what you meant when you said you were trying to confuse the mafia?

[bozotheclown]

I feel pretty strongly that Damo is town.

I had some more concrete thoughts on why with regard to Day 1, but mostly I feel like Day 1 didn't feel like mafia cared much to move their votes around since everyone was town.

I know you feel strongly about it, but if you have time I encourage you to look at Damo's posts again. If they are not vanilla cop, I am legitimately confused by their play.

Lastly, what power(s) do you think Mafia would take? If Eden or Bona are actually powered instead of Mafia, then that would mean Mafia took a power.

What specifically made you think damo was the cop?

[sweetandcool]

Do you think Chaqa was fake claiming as town or mafia?

I don't know, my head is spinning because there are all kinds of scenarios I am dreaming up.

I still haven't had a chance to do a satisfying analysis, but I currently think Chaqa was fake claiming as town. It certainly seems to fit their narrative extremely neatly. But I'm not committed to that way of thinking before I have a harder look.


My main ask is that ya'll at least consider saving me for today. Vote me tomorrow if you want, but give me a chance to help.

I have an important choice to make tonight. I have to decide whether to guard the most obvious choice, or try to outguess Mafia (since they might try other than the most obvious choice). I'm not entirely sure if giving opinions on who I should guard is a good idea since it might help Mafia outguess me, but ya'll can decide whether or not giving me opinions is a good idea.

Did you consider that voting for Dousing would be taken as you not believing his claim because his scan on you was invalid, or is that what you meant when you said you were trying to confuse the mafia?

Before Chaqa dropped the bomb that they were false claiming, my mindset was that I am just seeing words and that there was a possibility that none of what I was reading was completely true.

Then I was of the opinion that either Chaqa or Dousing was telling the truth, and that while genuine seeming, Eden could possibly be lying, not sure.

That was the moment when I made my play. I hadn't thought it through, so I didn't know if it was a good play, but I was reassured by the fact that no matter how poor the play, Chaqa or Dousing was going today.

So in the case that Dousing was lying, I thought me accusing Dousing would be extremely worrying for Mafia and I thought Dousing was likely to react poorly or say nothing at all.

In the case Chaqa was lying, I was hoping there would be a tiny chance Mafia would jump on the Dousing wagon.

I also was hoping to convince mafia I was being extremely emotional and hoping they would try to take advantage of it by trying to direct a misskill, and then getting a kill at night, with everybody believing I should be the one to kill on the next day.

In any case, it sure was satisfying voting Dousing because they had just ridiculously misread everything I had just said in the previous post or two at that point. So I thought me being emotional was an easy sell.

[sweetandcool]

I feel pretty strongly that Damo is town.

I had some more concrete thoughts on why with regard to Day 1, but mostly I feel like Day 1 didn't feel like mafia cared much to move their votes around since everyone was town.

I know you feel strongly about it, but if you have time I encourage you to look at Damo's posts again. If they are not vanilla cop, I am legitimately confused by their play.

Lastly, what power(s) do you think Mafia would take? If Eden or Bona are actually powered instead of Mafia, then that would mean Mafia took a power.

What specifically made you think damo was the cop?

Because they suddenly seemed to jump on me after N1 for no apparent reason. I figured they scanned me. And since I was seeing evidence of good players being very reticent, and certainly the cop wouldn't want to out themselves, I concluded that damo was Vanilla cop.

[President Eden]

of course it had to be a Bodyguard claim… by far the easiest fake of the bunch

[Jamiet99uk]

of course it had to be a Bodyguard claim… by far the easiest fake of the bunch

But you want to kill me apparently.

[President Eden]

of course it had to be a Bodyguard claim… by far the easiest fake of the bunch

But you want to kill me apparently.

You cannot actually be this dense and it’s wayyyy too early to be plastered bruv

[Dousing]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

[rdrivera2005]

I am back from being offline since early N2, and I am now caught up.

I think Chaqa was fake claiming cop as mafia knowing he was a likely DK target today, to either out the real cop as well as potentially other PRs, or get a mis-kill if there wasn't a real cop.

However, even though Dousing is not 100% confirmed, it is obvious he is the real cop, so sweetandcool's vote for Dousing after Dousing's claim is implicating, and sweetandcool later implying he is a PR after Chaqa retracted his claim also makes sense as mafia.

We still need to hear from Bonatogether to see if he can confirm PE's claim.

Great, I am not completely crazy.

##vote sweetandcool by the way

[sweetandcool]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

[President Eden]

my issues with s&c's claim:

- three town PRs is a lot, and I certainly believe Dousing ahead of s&c. obviously this argument plausibly indicts me as well
- Bodyguard is the easiest fakeclaim because it is neither self-confirming (vig, rb) nor requires guesswork to produce information (vanilla cop, tracker)
- their explanation is, on a quick read, internally consistent (but I haven't compared vs their past posts yet), but it does nothing to contradict the explanation that they're mafia
- the initial reaction to Dousing seemed more like panic from being caught out rather than playing up outrage... and there's also the issue that openly challenging Dousing only reinforces them as a mafia target by contrast to s&c being mafia. mafia would just see TvT and know something is up

[rdrivera2005]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

If you are Mafia flipping you as Mafia will be very helpful. Try another argument.

[Dousing]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

You voted for Koala because you didn’t like their attitude. I don’t understand why you’re one to call my logic bad

[sweetandcool]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

If you are Mafia flipping you as Mafia will be very helpful. Try another argument.

Explain how. Flipping me Mafia would be helpful for you to figure out who the other Mafia is. So under the assumption that I flip Mafia, who would that lead you to believe is Mafia? And if the answer is that you can't think of anybody, then there is no point to flipping me, regardless if I am Mafia.

[Jamiet99uk]

of course it had to be a Bodyguard claim… by far the easiest fake of the bunch

But you want to kill me apparently.

You cannot actually be this dense and it’s wayyyy too early to be plastered bruv

I have made it very clear that I don't know why you and Chaqa think I should be voted today.

Please either articulate your thoughts to me or get to fuck, you troll.

[Jamiet99uk]

##End

[sweetandcool]

Sweetandcool, I operated under the assumption that there is very likely to be either two town PR’s or even only one PR. You showing up as “not vanilla” meant that *at best* you had a 75% chance of turning out to be part of the mafia. I quite frankly would think it’s ridiculous that both newbies got town roles and that I should not assume that the 25% chance of you being some random town role occurred.

Looking back at your post history I saw a number of irregularities. Namely, your preference for “conspiracy theories” as you call them. A lot of them were baseless/rooted in emotion or were actions that people on this forum simply wouldn’t need to take.

That combined with the 75% (again, at best) of being mafia lead me to reason that the *most likely* way to uncover a mafia with the highest chance of success would be to persue you. Ofc there’s a chance I can be wrong, when there’s not a lot of information every avenue could be a failure (something that I feel like you’d know very well considering you helped kill two townies so far)

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

You voted for Koala because you didn’t like their attitude. I don’t understand why you’re one to call my logic bad

I voted Koala because they didn't even attempt to convince me they were anything other than Mafia.

The argument that I've been voting for Town makes sense, but the problem with it is that several other people also voted Town both days.

[President Eden]

alright, I'll leave him alone until tomorrow UK time

[President Eden]

I agree with your logic, yet still find your reading skills to be poor.

At the very least, do not kill me today. Even if I am Mafia, I don't think flipping me as such will be very helpful. Who have I been working with? I don't think my posts mesh with "sweetandcool is working with so and so".

If you are Mafia flipping you as Mafia will be very helpful. Try another argument.

Explain how. Flipping me Mafia would be helpful for you to figure out who the other Mafia is. So under the assumption that I flip Mafia, who would that lead you to believe is Mafia? And if the answer is that you can't think of anybody, then there is no point to flipping me, regardless if I am Mafia.

well, except for the part where we have to flip all the mafia to win, no...