WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I feel confident that the Champion did not have a vote boost.

Why would that be?

[Chaqa]

I feel confident that the Champion did not have a vote boost.

Why would that be?

It’s a night phase. We can talk later

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

No?
where do you see a vote on king removed?
There were 3 people on king and sweet's post recorded 3 votes.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

No?
where do you see a vote on king removed?
There were 3 people on king and sweet's post recorded 3 votes.

I am trying to account for the equalization of the result. There's either an addition or a subtraction at some level.

[Hamilton Brian]

But then I want to take a look at what might have been the result i my final vote counted.

King: yoyo, chaqa
Flavius: Dip, Damo, Brian
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
Unvote: King

Flavius would have been the flip, yeah?

And my previous vote posts should have yoyo as green. I need to assume that he is town; with no CC, or until there is one, I need to assume good intent.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

Using my vote count I want to build pairs and then determine who works and who doesn't. All of this will be built on the firm belief that yoyo is town as am I.

Chaqa-Damo
Chaqa-Dip
Chaqa-Flavius
Chaqa-WillKak
Chaqa-King

Dam0-Dip
Damo-Flavius
Damo-WillKak
Damo-King

Dip-Flavius
Dip-WillKak
Dip-King

WillKak-King

[Hamilton Brian]

At first blush, I have to say the D3 of Chaqa and Damo suggests a decent pairing possibility.

As a voting blok, they were both on confirmed D1, uncertain about D2 since Flavius is unclear. Now D3, with both yoyo and I town, does mafia!chaqa get on that King vote to ensure a miskill?

[Hamilton Brian]

For Chaqa-Flavius, both are on confirmed town on D1. They repeat that wagon on D2. How often will two mafia entertain the exact same wagon from one day to the next? Why would they? It seems...yeah, I am not sure. D3 is where they deviate. Flavius is on town (Brian) while Chaqa is on an unclear.

Right now I am thinking the Chaqa-Damo pair might be more likely than the Chaqa-Flavius pair.

For Chaqa-Dip, we have on D1 both on different confirmed town. For D2 Chaqa is on confirmed town while Dip is on the unclear slot. Day 3 is a complete unknown for either of them based on the tie.

For Chaqa - WillKak we have a repeat of the Chaqa-Dip positioning but somewhat differently. D1 both are on different confirmed town. On D2 Chaqa is on conftown as is WillKak. On D3 a little less clear since Chaqa is on an unclear while WillKak is on me.

Finally the Chaqa-King pairing. King votes Chaqa on D1 which could be a nice easy bus since there's no momentum on Chaqa. Chaqa is on conftown. D2 has chaqa on conftown while King's vote is on a nonclear. D3 King has a vote on no one. I see this pairing as the least likely; mafia do know that they want the miskills and I believe that they will probably let town lead the wagons since they will probably be miskills they don't have to take responsibility for. As mafia, King's vote could have been very important. I think pairing doesn't work. It does cause me to consider King more town than not.

As a hierarchy of most to least mafia pairings, I think I have:

Chaqa-Damo, Chaqa-WillKak, Chaqa-Dip, Chaqa-Flavius, Chaqa-King.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

Damo-Dip: Both end the day on conftown for D1. D2, Damo ends on Flavius while Dip is on an unclear. Similar to the argument above, is mafia!damo so convinced that a town miskill will happen so that there's no need to make any movement? On D3, both end on Flavius. Flavius is unclear, and the amount of movement needs to be looked at. Somehow someway the votes ended even so I am not sure how to read this pairing's interactions. 2

Damo-Flavius: on D1 both finish on different D1 conftown wagons. For D2, Flavius ends on conftown Bunny. Damo ends on Flavius. Is this a nonthreatening bus, as in there's no danger in Flavius getting killed? Damo then ends on Flavius on D3, making it two days in a row, while Flavius ends on town (Brian). Would mafia!damo bus two days in a row? 4

Damo-WillKak: both are on conftown Haze D1. Here I think mafia are more interested in separating their votes than being on the same wagon. With two more flips from that wagon it'd start to come together. Mafia would hope to last longer than that, I think, and right now it seems like they might. Damo is on Flavius D2 while WillKak is on conftown Bunny. As the vote progresses from D1 to D3 there starts to be more of a separation. This might warrant a 1.

Damo-King: On D1 these two have different votes; Damo is on a conftown wagon while King drops an early vote on Chaqa. On D2 both are on unclears and not involved in the kill. That makes me think it's a weak pairing unless the momentum for Bunny was a late push. For D3 King has an unvote. I don't see this partnership working.

My hierarchy is:

Damo-WillKak, Damo-Dip, Damo-Flavius, and Damo-King.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

Dip-Flavius: both are on confirmed town wagons on D1; this makes for a strong mafia pairing that knows town will kill town and don't want to overload the vote or bus. D2 sees some separation; Flavius is on conftown while Dip is not. D3 Dip is in the position of bussing Flavius (if teammates) while Flavius is on town (Brian). I think Flavius, if mafia, would have jumped to a more active wagon to ensure the kill. So maybe this pairing is low...maybe 2 out of 3.

Dip-WillKak: Both on conftown on D1. On D2 WillKak is on conftown but Dip is in the position of bussing if teammates. Given how close that is, I think this pairing is unlikely. D3 Dip is on a nonclear while WillKak is on town (Brian). Another 2 out of 3.

Dip-King: For D1, Dip is on conftown while King is on the Chaqa vanity. As a mafia pair enduring a great time difference, I could see Dip taking over and saying, "vote what you want, I'll manage the heavy lifting." On D2 both are on WillKak. I just have a hard time imagining both mafia not on the lead wagon making way for the kill.

I don't think any of these pairings really work, which suggests that if Dip is mafia it is unlikely that Flavius, WillKak, or King are their partner. It's not impossible but it just doesn't seem to work.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

Finally the WillKak-King potential pairing. Again for D1, King is far away from a viable wagon. WillKak is on conftown Haze. King then finds a way to land on WillKak's wagon; was this a directed bus that they concocted in mafiachat. No Brian, that's stupid. There wasn't a mafiachat prior to D1. Will does show up on the conftown Bunny wagon. Wait, I was looking at D2 there when I wrote that. So the possibility of the bus conversation prior to D2 is there. Don't rule it out. So for D1 there's WillKak on conftown and King on Chaqa; if a team there's some good distance there. D3 King does not vote. WillKak is on town (Brian). That D3 vote from King rattles me a little bit; no, rather a lot. Could be some sort of tactic to get out from under suspicion. Note WillKak does NOT go on King's wagon so potential avoidance of bussing.

I think this pairing has more potential that I originally gave to it.

[Hamilton Brian]

So that is 13 possible pairings at this point in the game. It will take me a bit to rank all 13 but it's a starting point if someone wants to continue this work when/if I die.

[Hamilton Brian]

Here are the pairs and I will rank them out of 13, with 1/13 being less likely and 13/13 highly likely.

Chaqa-Damo (11/13)
Chaqa-Dip (6/13)
Chaqa-Flavius (8/13)
Chaqa-WillKak (7/13)
Chaqa-King (3/13)

Dam0-Dip (9/13)
Damo-Flavius (10/13)
Damo-WillKak (9/13)
Damo-King (2/13)

Dip-Flavius (3/13)
Dip-WillKak ( 2/13)
Dip-King (1/13)

WillKak-King (5/13)

[Hamilton Brian]

All very arbitrary and subject to subjectivity.

Good luck Town!!!

[Hamilton Brian]

Ah, shit!!! Forgot it is 6pm and not 5pm EON.

OK, might be able to spend a little more time looking at things.

[Hamilton Brian]

Damo does score higher on my lists than most other combinations.

Anyone reading me right now, I'd appreciate you digging in to their Days and look for clues that suggest their alignment, even if it is implied and not explicit.

[Hamilton Brian]

King really seems like a lower level mafia, if at all, according to my rudimentary measurements.

[Hamilton Brian]

Chaqa and Damo together rank pretty high over all the metrics.

[Hamilton Brian]

Right now in scumchat:

Chaqa: Hey Damo, have you seen Hamilton Brian in action in the Mafia game? He's really impressive.

Damo: Yeah, he's definitely one of the best players I've seen. His skills are on another level.

Chaqa: Absolutely. The way he strategizes and reads people is just incredible. I think we should celebrate his contributions to the game.

Damo: I agree. Maybe we could organize a special event or tournament in his honor to showcase his skills and give him the recognition he deserves.

Chaqa: That's a great idea! It would be a fitting tribute to an exceptional player like Hamilton Brian.

Damo: Let's get planning then. I'm sure everyone will be excited to join in and show their appreciation for his talent in Mafia.

Chaqa: Yep, then we can kill him Day 1!!!

Damo: Base, mate.