M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

So you're claiming that you were making posts 20+ mins after deadline without having read the flip, and happened to only respond to 2 comments, both of which were from the flipped townie?

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

Can you elaborate on this?

Dip is Town. Kak had a hate boner for voting him.

[ghug]

I don't think afk is a reason to rule out so 10 - Kak&Col7by (temp noob pass) = 8.

I will be voting* from the survivors of {Will aaro demon Balki TMM ghug Bona lfischl}.

* Assuming I'm not NK'd (highly unlikely the way I'm being scumread by a few) or otherwise vig'd/despatched (quite possible)

I shall ponder the order of the 8

Why not Ezio?

Ezio voted Ham

Has anyone told you that Ham was town?

Rip Kak but it's probably good for town that you're dead.

[sweetandcool]

##VOTE Ezio

Because is he even playing this game?

[Squigs44]

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

Are you like… hard claiming you know Dip’s alignment?

No. But it's the single fact I am most confident in in this game.

Dip must be Town.

This push against Dip is highly suspicious.

Are you still trying to call Kak suspicious? I'm so confused

[Squigs44]

Why not Ezio?

Ezio voted Ham

Has anyone told you that Ham was town?

Rip Kak but it's probably good for town that you're dead.

Why is that a good thing?

[sweetandcool]

Are you like… hard claiming you know Dip’s alignment?

No. But it's the single fact I am most confident in in this game.

Dip must be Town.

This push against Dip is highly suspicious.

Are you still trying to call Kak suspicious? I'm so confused

This agreeability to push Kak's read of Dip is highly suspicious.

[ghug]

I suggest that we have a robust discussion and carefully considered vote rather than end the day early and follow one player’s read.

Imagine killing the one obvious townie because a dead person scumread them.

[Fluminator]

Rip Kak. I am not caught up, will likely have time tonight.

##vote lfischl

I'm a bit disappointed that this wagon died yesterday and Kak was on that wagon for a while

I'll sheep this in the mean time.

[Fluminator]

Oops forgot the vote
##vote lfischl

[sweetandcool]

No. But it's the single fact I am most confident in in this game.

Dip must be Town.

This push against Dip is highly suspicious.

Are you still trying to call Kak suspicious? I'm so confused

This agreeability to push Kak's read of Dip is highly suspicious.

Kak was locktown, obviously. The second most obvious thing to me this game.

[Squigs44]

No. But it's the single fact I am most confident in in this game.

Dip must be Town.

This push against Dip is highly suspicious.

Are you still trying to call Kak suspicious? I'm so confused

This agreeability to push Kak's read of Dip is highly suspicious.

Who is being agreeable and suspicious?

[FlaviusAetius]

##vote lfischl

I'm a bit disappointed that this wagon died yesterday and Kak was on that wagon for a while

Going after the lurkers is not smart today, its a shot in the dark, I understand putting pressure on them but we can do that without voting them, we might get a kotp situation; where a sub is incoming for them anyways

[ghug]

Flum - D&W - ghug - kotp/Balki - jamie

I think this has the highest possibility of being the mafia team right now.

If you ask me, why, I'll try to explain:

-) D&W looks to me connected to Flum, ghug and King Balki: he condemns me for what Flum did, tries to bend the narrative that it was me suggesting the whole tadpole thing, putting Flum at his highest/best read with his alignment chart, then go back with it all by saying it was just a joke. Puts ghug down as 'powerwolfing' while ghug's posts seemed mostly jokes - looks like TMI to me here. He also invents unfathomable justifications for townreading kotp early, trying to make his selfvote less awful that it is. Furthermore, the constant ignorance towards facts of D&W is just not a town thing to do, he is at least anti-town

-) Other than his awful suggestion about the tadpole, which he retracted much later as a 'joke', Flum feels suspicious to me. Saying that Brian, who gets often misvoted, obvtowns under pressure, then WHEN Brian actually puts towny stuff down ignoring it, just feels so disingenious. Hard townreads d&w, tries to disincentivising voting for him.

-) ghug hard towning d&w and defending him looks like a typical maf-ghug weakness here. Might be even that ghug is goon and d&w is a power mafia role. But ghug also shows his other tendency when he is mafia: wanting to be townread early. Town ghug usually wants to be more nebulous, mysterious, to not getting dk'ed early. In this game, ghug points out he has to be town, once because he wasn't naked in the last 12 hours (ok, first I thought that first one was but a joke), but also later, and that one looks not like a joke to me. That heavily hints we have a mafia ghug here, and is connected to d&w. Ghug's intend to 'try not to solve until day 4' is just atrocious and I doubt town ghug would ever feel that way.

-) kotp didn't do much, a few posts early, then voted no-kill, changed it to a self vote after I point out a rule. Itself not atypical for him, kotp usually isn't much involved as far as I've seen. But with the praise of d&w, him pushing kotp so high into town area, for him doing practically nothing, looks like a mafia trying to form a great opinion for a partner that has the opportunity to 'go dark' and coast a long, long time.

-) regarding jamie, from most of his actions and words, how he plays this game I would've said he is town ... BUT, his reaction, or rather non-reaction of kotp's selfvote is rather weird. I would've thought that town-jamie would vote kotp, call others to vote him too, to not voting for himself. I would've thought that maf-jamie would use this opportunity to go on to town-kotp, too, imitating townplay, which would've been quite easy, I think. But jamie not doing that is a big warning sign that both are mafia partners here. Maybe I'm wrong, and town-jamie just changed, but with the rest what I've seen of jamie, I don't get that feeling, he is good old jamie.


I do think that the hardest connection is between d&w and ghug, as is between d&w and flum. The d&w connection to kotp is rather weak, and is only inforced with jamie's (non)reaction. Thus I think we should vote out d&w tomorrow.

I also think, if King Balki flips town, jamie is most likely not mafia, so in this 5-man team, he should be targeted last. Ghug could be mafia without d&w, as could flum, and d&w just be awful town. Nonetheless, I think this is the most likely mafia team from a connections point of view.


Other people who I think have a chance to be mafia here:

damo, though very small. Mostly, he feels different. I think, we need to figure him out earlier than later, but I think we can afford to give him some time, maybe a day or two, or three, to get rolling. But if this keeps on, and my previous maf-team turns out wrong, we should consider voting him. But I just don't see this 'obvmafia' some people are putting on him.

Bunny doesn't feel too good to me and had some small drops I find suspicious. I think he deserves some scrutiny if my team guess above turns out to be wrong. I have to say though, I agree of some things bunny says.

lfischl should not be allowed to coast, needs to participate. If not, consider voting him on a higher priority.

I expected more from Ezio, he could just be there, lying in wait, trying to strike. With his normal behaviour, I also think he would fit into any mafia team, naturally.


I think bona and sweet are very towny. Dousing is also looking very good. Vecna has gotten some town points from me, but I don't want to put him as high town. Squiggs feels fine too, should be town. I also think that our kobold ambassador, RHK, is a good kobold here.


I want Mad Monarch to participate more, please give us your thoughts. Col7by needs to do more too, even when it feels hard. If nothing else, give a few gut-reads and do what your heart feels. Will felt ok, but wasn't much involved? Want to see more from him too.

If two of the next three nk's are PR's, vote worcej. If not, he should be town. I think Flavius has not bad chances to be town here, but I don't feel he is on the same level as the others. Maybe the least town, maybe the highest from the null-ish part.

I have problems getting a feel for food, chayozo, fox and aaro, cannot really sort them. Please make some more so I can read you.


for tomorrow, please copy paste the following:

##vote DiplomacyandWarfare

##end

I suppose this needs a deep analysis. Could be them slimming Kar to frame dip and get us to miss again?

Kak posted this at the end, the Mafia had zero chance in order to actually react to whatever information Kak was able to put down here. I still agree with sweet, I think Kak is tunneling here...but maybe he tunneled correctly?

I think at least one person who skated/barely talked D1 was a strategy out of a mafia. This game has unique posting requirements and they should all be put into a box for later. Its not necessary for us to sus them right now, but thats where we should look for the 3rd or 4th mafia.

I also think Kak's team makes sense if D&W is mafia, but I just dont know if I can pull the trigger, he brought up a lot of good arguments that only make sense if D&W is mafia for Flum. Can anyone else verify what Kak says about Ghug? If we can then he should be the first domino to fall, because theres other evidence around this supposed team that leads him to be a mafia. If he falls then the Flum & D&W mafia team now makes sense.

I think he's completely missed the mark on Jamie, Im sure he just didnt see the whole kotp thing and plus kotp went AFK pretty early on, sure what kotp did was sus, but clearly kotp was busy with other stuff whatever we can get out of kotp is zero I think, I think he's in the box of the one mafia who chose to not talk as a strategy, in D1, but I dont think we should be worrying about that person rn.

Ghug is my vote IF someone can verify what Kak said, let me catch up and see if someone already has.

Maybe verify it yourself with critical thinking?

Scum ghug likes to be townread
He joked about how he has to be town once
Also he said another thing that gets negative attention

That's not a compelling argument.

The D&W TMI thing I'd maybe buy as a neutral third party but it is also easily explained as D&W being eager and weird.

[sweetandcool]

Are you still trying to call Kak suspicious? I'm so confused

This agreeability to push Kak's read of Dip is highly suspicious.

Who is being agreeable and suspicious?

Whoever is voting Dip right now. Bot's broken right now and I'm going to spend time with my wife, so you can look and see.

[Squigs44]

##vote lfischl

I'm a bit disappointed that this wagon died yesterday and Kak was on that wagon for a while

Going after the lurkers is not smart today, its a shot in the dark, I understand putting pressure on them but we can do that without voting them, we might get a kotp situation; where a sub is incoming for them anyways

Enlighten me

[Col7by]

##vote lfischl

I'm a bit disappointed that this wagon died yesterday and Kak was on that wagon for a while

This I am on board with. I think it’s either they were using dip to mask protecting fisch or squigs is scum enacting their Strat only two options I think make most sense rn

[Squigs44]

This agreeability to push Kak's read of Dip is highly suspicious.

Who is being agreeable and suspicious?

Whoever is voting Dip right now. Bot's broken right now and I'm going to spend time with my wife, so you can look and see.

So you aren't actually sure who you are suspicious of?

[Fluminator]

Also a bit offended I wasn't fear killed. Just gonna assume mafia saw some crumbs in Kaks posts. Either that or scum!Vecna told his team to leave me alive so he could continue to buddy me. Man I miss feeling paranoid like this

yeah, im already thinking about which of the followibg three is ghe most likely;
1: mafis killed kak because he was on point too much
2: mafia killed him as a distraction to lock in reads thstllblead us astray
3; mafia needed a distraction/reason why high profile person x isnt gonna be dead for a while
4; any mix of the above, with the feelibg that noone was really suspicious of kak?

Who would you consider the high profile people this game if not Kak?

[ghug]

Also a bit offended I wasn't fear killed. Just gonna assume mafia saw some crumbs in Kaks posts. Either that or scum!Vecna told his team to leave me alive so he could continue to buddy me. Man I miss feeling paranoid like this

yeah, im already thinking about which of the followibg three is ghe most likely;
1: mafis killed kak because he was on point too much
2: mafia killed him as a distraction to lock in reads thstllblead us astray
3; mafia needed a distraction/reason why high profile person x isnt gonna be dead for a while
4; any mix of the above, with the feelibg that noone was really suspicious of kak?

5. PR reads

Once every couple games everyone gets really worked up over the N1 kill.

Kak wasn't a PR, he's a mediocre solver at best, and he's difficult to solve himself. Let's just take the W.

[Yoyoyozo]

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

Can you elaborate on this?

Dip is Town. Kak had a hate boner for voting him.

Maybe I’m rusty, but doesn’t MK mean mafia kill? Is that the term they use in mafia chat? Certainly this couldn’t be a fake town slip and a scum slip in 45 minutes?