MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie

Lamb of God
Slayer
Slipknot

who would you prefer

None of them are particular favourites of mine. Probably Slayer, Lamb of God, Slipknot, in that order. But I've always regarded Slayer as the least interesting, for me personally, of the "big four". Why do you ask?

You have superb taste

Uh, ok. Buddy me more, I like it.

[ghug]

Eden's Bungo theory isn't invalid, but wouldn't it be more likely as mafia that he merely posts less instead of vanishing completely? Unless we're being wifom'd, but.

The issue is that the data backs up the idea that he does vanish (to the QuickTopic) completely. Whether or not he should (and I suspect that if I'm right here, this is the last time this will ever work on him), he does.

The true problem with the theory is the lack of a sample of town games. I literally only have one night where he could post in the last 6 months. He was the most active poster. But a sample size of literal one is not helpful.
He could just always vanish completely, whether town or mafia. But if he doesn't vanish as town, then vanishing here is very suspicious.

I think there are a couple of problems here:
1. The oddity of M59/60 with the jailer.
2. The fact that Bunny tends to have RL shit come up.

It's a nice idea, but I think the data is probably just coincidental.

[Chaqa]

I'm thinking ghuggles is scum

[President Eden]

Eden's Bungo theory isn't invalid, but wouldn't it be more likely as mafia that he merely posts less instead of vanishing completely? Unless we're being wifom'd, but.

The issue is that the data backs up the idea that he does vanish (to the QuickTopic) completely. Whether or not he should (and I suspect that if I'm right here, this is the last time this will ever work on him), he does.

The true problem with the theory is the lack of a sample of town games. I literally only have one night where he could post in the last 6 months. He was the most active poster. But a sample size of literal one is not helpful.
He could just always vanish completely, whether town or mafia. But if he doesn't vanish as town, then vanishing here is very suspicious.

I think there are a couple of problems here:
1. The oddity of M59/60 with the jailer.
2. The fact that Bunny tends to have RL shit come up.

It's a nice idea, but I think the data is probably just coincidental.

I didn't count M59/M60 because of the jailer, although again I point out that for what (little) it's worth, Bunny was the most active poster for the one night where the jailer didn't seem to affect things.

I don't think the RL bit holds up, because the pattern is so clearly correlated to day vs night phases. Wouldn't you expect RL problems to be more evenly distributed if that were the only explanation?

[ghug]

The issue is that the data backs up the idea that he does vanish (to the QuickTopic) completely. Whether or not he should (and I suspect that if I'm right here, this is the last time this will ever work on him), he does.

The true problem with the theory is the lack of a sample of town games. I literally only have one night where he could post in the last 6 months. He was the most active poster. But a sample size of literal one is not helpful.
He could just always vanish completely, whether town or mafia. But if he doesn't vanish as town, then vanishing here is very suspicious.

I think there are a couple of problems here:
1. The oddity of M59/60 with the jailer.
2. The fact that Bunny tends to have RL shit come up.

It's a nice idea, but I think the data is probably just coincidental.

I didn't count M59/M60 because of the jailer, although again I point out that for what (little) it's worth, Bunny was the most active poster for the one night where the jailer didn't seem to affect things.

I don't think the RL bit holds up, because the pattern is so clearly correlated to day vs night phases. Wouldn't you expect RL problems to be more evenly distributed if that were the only explanation?

Night phases are shorter than day phases.

[President Eden]

I think there are a couple of problems here:
1. The oddity of M59/60 with the jailer.
2. The fact that Bunny tends to have RL shit come up.

It's a nice idea, but I think the data is probably just coincidental.

I didn't count M59/M60 because of the jailer, although again I point out that for what (little) it's worth, Bunny was the most active poster for the one night where the jailer didn't seem to affect things.

I don't think the RL bit holds up, because the pattern is so clearly correlated to day vs night phases. Wouldn't you expect RL problems to be more evenly distributed if that were the only explanation?

Night phases are shorter than day phases.

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

[ghug]

Some reads cause idk my availability for the next hour.

Town (town2town):
emc
Eden
Jamie
HR
-----------strong vs. weak line
celaph
Bona
Brian
Damo

Don't kill cause good (null2scum):
rd
Durga
Vecna
Bunny (could probably be convinced to kill)

Tomorrow kill options (boyz2men):
aaro
Donny
brain
Bozo
RHK
Chaqa
Worcej

[ghug]

I didn't count M59/M60 because of the jailer, although again I point out that for what (little) it's worth, Bunny was the most active poster for the one night where the jailer didn't seem to affect things.

I don't think the RL bit holds up, because the pattern is so clearly correlated to day vs night phases. Wouldn't you expect RL problems to be more evenly distributed if that were the only explanation?

Night phases are shorter than day phases.

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

[aarodactyl]

Jamie this is the second time youve acted this way. Day 1 you went really crazy when HR voted you naked, and now you seem fixated on Eden reading you as his third strongest scumread.

why do you care so much if people scumread you?

I absolutely did not go "crazy" at HR.

Here's the sum total of my responses to HR's naked vote on me:

For what reason?

@Hellenic Riot:

You voted me out of nowhere, having not mentioned me even once prior to your naked vote.

Please explain yourself.

##Vote Hellenic Riot because he voted me for no reason and that's very mean of him in this season of goodwill.

If you think those three posts represent a person "g0iNng cRaZy" then you have a very odd concept of the word "crazy".

Why are you exaggerating so much?

im getting 4 wisdom teeth pulled on jan 6th so i actually am gonna goto the dentist.

Im not exaggerating. Youre still town to me, just checking in on my paranoia

Make sure you post as soon as you get home. It will make the thread a lot more fun

[Jamiet99uk]

Night phases are shorter than day phases.

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

Was Chaqa there?

[President Eden]

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

Was Chaqa there?

[e.m.c^42]

I'm thinking ghuggles is scum

So terse, why you callin' daddy scum? Don't recall much except for that something pinged you right off the bat, lol.

[President Eden]

I'm thinking ghuggles is scum

So terse, why you callin' daddy scum? Don't recall much except for that something pinged you right off the bat, lol.

##VOTE e.m.c^42

[e.m.c^42]

- Everyone not rated is otherwise null and I have not much in the way of useful insights there.

I'm devastated, depression overflowing from my mind asunder, why have I dropped off to be of no notice?

[ghug]

Night phases are shorter than day phases.

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

No I got all of it. I'm not saying he's going to post less every night because it's shorter (which you accounted for), I'm saying you need a 24 hour absence to go quiet for a whole night and a 48 hour absence to go quiet for a whole day.

[ghug]

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

Was Chaqa there?

You keep giving other people credit for my jokes and I don't appreciate it.

[Bonatogether]

Since I promised Eden that I'd get a reads list out, here goes (in order of post count):

Ghug: He feels different to me from last game. He was PR then, so that might have something to do with it. He's not poking people as much, but still a fair amount. Town

Eden: I've never played mafia with him before, so I shall use his among us meta to draw conclusions. In AU, he is similar to Chaqa in that he talks a lot and is loud (similar to this game) and sometimes makes bold assertions that aren't totally justified and logical (also similar to this game). His dive on Bunny seems solid, but I think that it's not enough to justify a scumread on its own. I'm not sure about him, but I'd put him as slightly town.

Jamie: Feels similar to last game, but I won't make a final call until there's some more days in - him being pissed at Eden is something that I can't read very well. Also stupid rules. Not sure.

Bunny: Did math. Bad. He hasn't said a lot of value, so I lean scum on him. The disappearing at night is really weird. We'll see if he pops up tomorrow.

brain: Less abrasive. Less pokey (like ghug). Didn't do a lot d1, but he's been good this night. Probably town? This might just be that I like brain.

Durga: hasn't argued with worcej yet =D. Again, didn't do a lot d1 (except at EoD), but is doing good stuff tonight. Lean town, but less than brain.

emc: Nice vibes. I'm not sure about town vibes. Called ghug daddy for some reason. Again, this might just be cause I like him, but I'm soft townreading him.

Donny: Doesn't talk a lot, but he makes solid points. Almost certainly town.

Chaqa: More active than last game. I love his push against getting ND voted, so many town points for him.

Everyone after this should post more (except myself, I will continue to not post much)

Vecna: d1 was doodoo. n1 is doodoo. Null.

aaro: Lots of townie things.

damo: does math. null

Celaph: Same as last game. Almost certainly a nice townie

Mandatory excitement for Eden to stop scumreading me:
Woohoo! yeah! mafia!

I can't finish this atm cause I need to go watch a movie with family. Will finish when I get back.

[President Eden]

- Everyone not rated is otherwise null and I have not much in the way of useful insights there.

I'm devastated, depression overflowing from my mind asunder, why have I dropped off to be of no notice?

Well it's more that I'm actually getting suspicious of you but I don't know what to make of it. You are noticed.

You didn't actually read the analysis did you.

I did but I was at the grocery store so I may have failed to internalize bits.

No I got all of it. I'm not saying he's going to post less every night because it's shorter (which you accounted for), I'm saying you need a 24 hour absence to go quiet for a whole night and a 48 hour absence to go quiet for a whole day.

Ahh ok, fair point. I didn't actually read through his ISO when I did these analyses to try to account for that. If I don't die in 30 minutes somehow then I'll revisit this.

[brainbomb]

I feel like Alex Karev right now

[aarodactyl]

- Durga, ghug, brainbomb, HR all look town. Donny Dude's n1 has been much better than his d1, I'm back to null. aarodactyl worries me slightly for the way he has been soft-defending BunnyGo on the two occasions I put him in the spotlight (post count analysis just now, Vecna meme vote day 1). If BG is mafia look at Vecna too now that I think about it.

Yeah, I agree it looks bad for me if Bunny flips scum, and considering I have them as a scumlead, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. Also, I don't really remember the meme vote thing day 1. I think your recent analysis could interesting, but not a smoking gun like you portrayed it as.

EMC just said that Bunny is good about using real life excuses as a way to lurk, and to be honest, I hadn't thought about that either this game or last game (and that's honestly making me feel a bit silly). That's part of the reason I excused them for being away at EOD and not coming back.