Kakarroto wrote: ↑Wed Dec 28, 2022 3:26 pm
revistited possible teams:
teams with one need for a guess:
chaqa-bozo-
heartthrob
bozo-damo-
heartthrob
damo-
heartthrob-lfischl
teams with 2 guesses needed:
chaqa-damo-
heartthrob
bozo-
heartthrob-lfischl
teams with 3+ guesses needed:
chaqa-
heartthrob-lfischl
noticable behaviour:
lfischl brought both chaqa and bozo in danger with his votes (D1 and D2 respectively)
(I looked it up and noticed I'm totally wrong there, it was bo not chaqa D1, my notes even say chaqa plus lfischl have higher percentages, so what did I smoke thinking that for the past time?)
bozo and damo are very close and very similar with their thoughts since D3
heartthrob seemed to be a new player, said he only played once before
heartthrob voted for me D2 and D3 (might look like a bus, from my perspective it's not) (heartthrob voted only town - bo, ghug D1, me, celaph D2, me D3 - at least from the VC posted by Eden, as I said, I don't use the peterbot, but please check it out there, maybe you notice something there?)
chaqa and damo voted each other D1, damo continued this to D2
(at least that was correctly stored in my memory)
bozo was on the highest wagon on all final votes except when we got mafia.
damo was on the highest wagon on D3 and D4
lfischl was on the highest wagon on D1, D3 and D4 (D2 he voted bozo)
chaqa was never on the highest wagon except when we got mafia (D2 he also voted bozo)
chaqa declared lfischl locktown (got some criticism for it) (I think it was D2 or something like that)
bozo questioned lfischl about his reads D2 after lfischl made the 'shoot not worcej' post (which made me notice worcej was probably dog)
chaqa affirmed my questions about his chipotle vow (though he never phrased them himself, he just said 'Yes' to it ... which makes me think he is town but not 100% lock him in)
damo told his pets only on D3 after some people told their pets so in case he is mafia he was able to fudge them in his favour
things that I noticed:
lfischl is maybe not mafia with bozo
chaqa is probably not mafia with bozo
damo is probably not mafia with chaqa
chaqa and lfischl have a high combability being mafia together
damo and bozo have a high combability being mafia together
team evaluation
chaqa-
heartthrob-lfischl (3 guesses)
for N1 all three told three different names, none of them each other (bozo, damo, me). for N2 they told the N2 mafia target, the dog and one from the day before (RD, me, worcej)
they would've know worcej was dog; in that case, they decided to pressure with two.
bozo-
heartthrob-lfischl (2 guesses)
N1 they chose the N1 target and twice not of the group (ghug, damo, me). for N2 they told having scanned the dog twice and a repeat from N1 (worcej x2, me)
as said, since lfischl endangered bozo, the chance of them being mafia together is lower. if lfischl is mafia he doesn't seem to have bussed again except D4 where it would be ludicrous not to follow worcej
chaqa-damo-
heartthrob (1-2 guesses)
N1 they chose the dog and one not from the group and one from the group (bozo, worcej*, damo). for N2 they scanned the N2 target, one from yesterday and one not from the group (RD, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge the reads.
this however makes little sense here since damo had no need to hide the worcej scan on N2. If mafia scanned worcej N1 they would've targeted him N2. It might've been a ploy to lure town off of such a trail to not connect the scan with the next night target, but they let worcej live until N4 which doesn't fit since at the time, worcej was very negatively towards all three and came around damo only recently.
on top of it, from behaviour, chaqa and damo are probably not mafia so this team is extremely unlikely.
chaqa-bozo-
heartthrob (1 guess)
N1 they chose 1x in group, N1 target, 1x out of group (bozo, ghug, damo). N2 they chose N2 target, dog, 1x out of group (RD, worcej, me)
choosing twice the night target from mafia seems kinda unlikely, especially since they would have the information who is dog. This would've make them look more suspicious than needed and I think both bozo and chaqa would've known that.
on top of that, from behaviour, chaqa is unlikely mafia partner with bozo
bozo-damo-
heartthrob (0 guesses)
N1 they chose N1 target, dog*, inside of group. (ghug, worcej*, damo). N2 they chose dog, inside of group* and outside of group (worcej, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
if mafia scanned worcej N2, damo fudging his to look like he scanned the dog N1 would make totally sense. They could also have arranged it previously to make the new player pressure worcej. bozo choosing the N1 target might've been a gamble that it might look suspicious, but then, which mafia would target ghug N1 anyway, right?
bozo and damo also have a good compability together, this team just makes so much sense.
damo-
heartthrob-lfischl (1 guess)
N1 they chose the dog*, inside the group and outside the group (worcej*, damo, me). N2 they chose outside the group*, repeat from N1 but outside the group and the dog (bozo, me, worcej). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
In this scenario, damo telling his reads later at D3 could also benefit mafia. This team could actually work pretty well. I don't see a special harmony, but it is a team that is quite possible.
Maybe I'm wrong about bozo. Maybe damo is the better vote today ... it irks me that I've overlooked that there is a second 0 guesses team too.
I need to look at it again and think. If someone notices a logic mistake or mistake in general about this all, please don't hesitate to mention it.