WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

FA's behavior is so scummy that hes probably getting bussed
The most likely partner there is chaqa.

[FlaviusAetius]

I should have a look at D2 again, although I think it is a bit influenced with the claim, so don't know how much we will really get out of it.

I am however hungry and haven't had the chance to get groceries, so I'll be out a bit. If anyone wants to do some stuff, feel free to have a look at D2, or look at the endvote incident and add your thoughts to it. Have I overlooked something? Did I make a mistake in my conclusions? Am I just totally insane? Your thoughts matter, so please share them.

I dont think you overlooked anything clearly you spent a lot of time looking at every angle for the endvoting. I think you are giving Dip wayyyy too much credit. ALSO although I think HB def exposed himself here and has been acting more sus recently, he should NOT be the first vote.

He's just been townread for too long to be the #1 target. As for Chaqa I think you are looking at it too deep if Chaqa has been sus then Chaqa IS sus. Let him defend himself if he wants too against the allegations

[FlaviusAetius]

FA's behavior is so scummy that hes probably getting bussed
The most likely partner there is chaqa.

*zombie noises*

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I don't think we need to spend any more time with FA pontificating about how scummy he thinks I am.
##end

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

FA's behavior is so scummy that hes probably getting bussed
The most likely partner there is chaqa.

*zombie noises*

Again, the wagon on you today is much better than your crappy wagon on Bunny yesterday.

[FlaviusAetius]

FA's behavior is so scummy that hes probably getting bussed
The most likely partner there is chaqa.

*zombie noises*

Again, the wagon on you today is much better than your crappy wagon on Bunny yesterday.

At least I provided reasons for the Bunny wagon what have YOU done

[FlaviusAetius]

Not only did I provide reasons I RESPONDED to criticism from the wagon too

[damo666]

Assuming Flav is town (and continiung to assume yoyo is BB and Kak is not scum)

Possible pairs

A Chaq Dip
B Chaq Ham
C Chaq kotp
D Dip Ham
E Dip kotp
F Ham kotp

A Dip briefly voted Chaqa D1 but quickly moved back off, both voting F today - POSSIBLE (though I townlean D)

B never voted each other, ended of different wagons D1 & D2, bothh voting F today - VERY PLAUSIBLE

C k voted C both D1 & D2 - POSSIBLE [?]

D D very briefly voted H D1, nothing much else, if these are the pair they are doing a good job of seeming towny - POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY

E possibly avoiding each other? - MAYBE

F both off the DK both D1 & D2 - Yep, another POSSIBLE

[damo666]

Well, I'm not sure I got anywhere really.

My analysis suggests Flav's only partner is kotp so choices are:

DK Flav and kill kotp 2m when Flav flips scum

DK Flav and vote Ham[?] 2m

DK someone else but who? Ham? Chaqa? kotp? (not voting Dip today).

With the current vote count I think my best option is to stay where I am but happy to move to any of the single vote wagons if they pick up.

Should be around for EOD.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

*zombie noises*

Again, the wagon on you today is much better than your crappy wagon on Bunny yesterday.

At least I provided reasons for the Bunny wagon what have YOU done

You have to know that's not true.

[FlaviusAetius]

Again, the wagon on you today is much better than your crappy wagon on Bunny yesterday.

At least I provided reasons for the Bunny wagon what have YOU done

You have to know that's not true.

It is true

[FlaviusAetius]

Well, I'm not sure I got anywhere really.

My analysis suggests Flav's only partner is kotp so choices are:

DK Flav and kill kotp 2m when Flav flips scum

DK Flav and vote Ham[?] 2m

DK someone else but who? Ham? Chaqa? kotp? (not voting Dip today).

With the current vote count I think my best option is to stay where I am but happy to move to any of the single vote wagons if they pick up.

Should be around for EOD.

BASICALLY everything you said is that there's no way I could be mafia here when analyzing who my partner would be. Why do you somehow suspect KOTP BTW?

[Kakarroto]

idk I wasnt in game 1 or even read it. IDK what happened there only that the D1 was a big mess.

Brian was town until the end, even quite good, so that he got enough votes to proceed, even when he was on the losing team

there is also the item game, where I was mafia, I think it was Will's first game here (?), where he was town and made it to the final four. Where I barely won as mafia, because Will looked a little bit more sus than me.

So if Brian is alive a long time, it doesn't mean he is necessarily mafia

Then think of it like this
HB THIS game is a townclear for many people. So for THIS game if a townclear survives for a long time, you must start suspecting them. That is why for THIS game if HB survives a long time he's got to be looked at as sus.

However for THIS game I dont think its possible to find the sleeper agent without first finding the sus person

HB was pretty much a townclear that game where I was mafia, so things like that happen. We had two nk's this game, and Jamie as well as ghug were removed. I think that is very plausible that Brian stays alive as town, even when mostly townread. Contrary to the other two, while he can play beautifully (see last game), it seems that Brian lacks supporter base for his thoughts and pushes, at least normally. Instead of ghug and jamie, he isn't a leader type. I think that can have a huge impact for mafia targets.

Does that make him town? No, and I've presented my thoughts on the endvote incident and mentioned other stuff. But him surviving this to D3 while he wasn't targeted by mafia doesn't automatically mean he is mafia.

[Kakarroto]

NGL I was suspecting something more like a deep analysis on the development of the game or something. I think you put a decent case against damo but it doesnt even feel like a real one rather you are hedging on damo and masking it over with a vote that will probs go no where anyways

WHY do you need interaction with Chaqa he's said plenty

I came home pretty late, read stuff up I missed on discord, then noticed that sweet had put out a question for a sub, which I responded to; then I began reading the game as fast as I can.

took me 4 hours and 42 minutes, if I'm counting the time on here correctly, to read up the 78 pages. With that information input and the time pressure, I think it's rather silly to expect an indepth analysis

as for hedging, what can I say, I always do that when I'm not sure, and I'm seldom really are. At least for gut feelings and fast conclusions/theories. See, while I want to get to the truth, I also don't want to look bad or stupid, so I don't put in too much confidence when I have doubts (which I have, oh boy, there are doubts everywhere).

That's just something you have to deal with when trying to read me. I try to have an open mind, not getting tunnely, trying to think 'what if'. The more we think of possibilities, the more we see what is logical, what is plausible, and what is rubbish, from our thoughts.

So yeah, I am not convinced that damo is mafia. Possible? Oh, yes. But it's neither a proven fact nor gospel.

As for chaqa, I need more data to determine if he's town, mafia, or mafia acting as if he's town. I also need information how he reacts to me, to get a better feeling.

You have a very unique opportunity to look at this game with fresh eye and without any biases. The fact that you want to even speak to Chaqa before developing an opinion on him just seems so out of left field as compared to everyone else you have judged

hey, chaqa and I are college roommates, we have a long history.

Especially, since I provided him the correct coinflip answer in two mafia cases, and both times he didn't believe me and followed his own thoughts. We lost both times as town

But everytime I was correct on chaqa, and it's because I get a better feeling the more I interact with him.

[Kakarroto]

I think Brian has a great chance of being damo's partner, and I don't know how you townread him that high. I am however known to have some weird reads, so I could be wrong.

Wanted to come back to this. A lot of my opinion on ham b came from his D1, where he felt very in control. Maybe just me, and ham’s steering of the game I feel has slowly tapered off. Still don’t want to vote him just yet tho.

I think the fact you’ve been able to read everything all together very quickly is 1)impressive and 2)it gives you a totally different angle from the rest of us.

I've come around on this possible team: damo + Brian is unlikely, I think; they look too close intertwined. Sure, on the first view that might mean they are connected, but thinking about it, mafia wouldn't most likely not do that. So if either of them is mafia, the other is most likely town (and there might've been some buddying there to add to it)

[Kakarroto]

If I could vote for Dip & Chaqa here I WOULD. Doing my case on Chaqa SOON

you have a vote, right? Use it. You aren't banned from voting any of those two

I voted Dip before you joined so big fat false

I didn't check the votes, but you sounded like something preventing you from voting d&w. So that's what I responded to. I just wanted to hold you off of a mental block or something that would not make you vote who you think is mafia. Sorry if I interpreted it wrong

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

At least I provided reasons for the Bunny wagon what have YOU done

You have to know that's not true.

It is true

you basically said "bunny was sus of haze" and then theorized under the assumption that bunny was scum.
Which he was not.
Meanwhile I have pointed to your crappy wagon from yesterday and your blatant coasting d1.

[Kakarroto]

It got dangerously close I honestly expected it would be joeover for me when I got back home

yes, it did get very close

so, if Flav is town, I don't think mafia would've let this chance pass. So we have a high probability, that both mafia were already on Flav in that case. Kotp, yoyo and I all had the chance to endvote and didn't.

I think we have to look at those endvotes, and the development of it. That would tell us a lot if Flav is town.

If Flav is maf ... well, then town missed a quick removal of a mafia. It might very well that the other mafia would endvote here, especially with the possibility of a long night, but it wouldn't be necessarily so. So I don't think we can not infer too much from it. Though I concede, that I would look more like I was trying to save Flav here.

You are probably my #1 defender rn MAYBE you have rose colored glasses because of that one game you got out and then I did and we were in graveyard chat together I cant say for sure , I wish people would just look at what I've been saying but the zombie wagon doesnt want too

well, I see no (or at least not a big) difference to your previous games where you were town. Sure, you also said that your maf game is the same, so I'm not fully crediting here, but I just don't get much of a mafia feel from you. With the endvote push, I also feel you were about to be set up, which amplifies my leaning

If I'm wrong, I can't wait to read the god chat who crucifies me

but another part is also, if you are mafia, half of the participants have you nailed, so I can afford to being wrong here. If you are town, it's much better for us to work with you here and get as much information, also in case you get misvoted. So yeah.

[Kakarroto]

Why must I be flipped at all ? There are other sus people that poeple think besides just me...what have I done besides fail on one read like cmon people

well, many people maf read you, so if you are allowed to proceed to the very end, people would probably be blocked by a "but what if Flav is mafia" and just vote you out. If you're mafia, that good of course (though we should've voted you out sooner), and if you're town, that's very bad.

Also, your alignment might be crucial to get us thinking straight, like, if you flip town, we could very easily retract kotp, yoyo and me from the maf pool and focus on the other four. If you are mafia, we get a lot of time, and the likelyhood of some of those endvoting you goes way, way down. Though in that case, I think it doesn't really clear anyone.

So yeah, maybe 'must flip' is not fully true, but knowing your alignment, really knowing it, could go far for us.

The inevitability of it all just doesnt seem right. AND if we havent flipped two mafia yet throwing away a town is not going to do any good

well, if we flip someone other than you today who is mafia, chances are you survive and doesn't need to be flipped, especially if my theory is correct with the endvotes and you were set up. But how likely is it that any of those four voting for you today change their mind?

[Kakarroto]

I should have a look at D2 again, although I think it is a bit influenced with the claim, so don't know how much we will really get out of it.

I am however hungry and haven't had the chance to get groceries, so I'll be out a bit. If anyone wants to do some stuff, feel free to have a look at D2, or look at the endvote incident and add your thoughts to it. Have I overlooked something? Did I make a mistake in my conclusions? Am I just totally insane? Your thoughts matter, so please share them.

I dont think you overlooked anything clearly you spent a lot of time looking at every angle for the endvoting. I think you are giving Dip wayyyy too much credit. ALSO although I think HB def exposed himself here and has been acting more sus recently, he should NOT be the first vote.

He's just been townread for too long to be the #1 target. As for Chaqa I think you are looking at it too deep if Chaqa has been sus then Chaqa IS sus. Let him defend himself if he wants too against the allegations

meh, I'm sure there are some things I overlooked. Especially from other perspectives, that's why I want input into it. Every bit helps.

maybe I'm giving d&w too much credit. But he looks like in the last game, stand-up and open. Well, maybe not for you. I'm not lock-towning him like will, I still have my doubts. Especially the one post he made just when he signed off, the one you quoted, but everyone else kinda ignored. I too feel bad about that one, feels something like 'oh Ive done my work, kak townreads me now I can relax and sit back'. Maybe it was a mask off and he blended me before. But I could just misinterpret it (town also produces bad looking posts) and the rest looks kinda genuine to me.

As for chaqa, sure, he should do more. I was just talking from my experience with him and my perspective