M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[xorxes]

@xorxes: Also if I am not around D4 to push you and teacon as the wagons, that means you will be, so you can do it yourself. You should be able to get yourself lynched first if that is what it will take. You flipping town on D4 should be enough to get teacon lynched D5, and teacon flipping scum D5 should get Flavius lynched D6.

You have a lot of trust in ND if you think so.

[bozotheclown]

ND likes to change styles from game to game but when he's like this he's scum.

##vote ND

This is the extent of damo's scum read of ND, that when he is "like this" he is scum.

ND likes to change styles from game to game but when he's like this he's scum.

##vote ND

I find this somewhat contradictory, and I am not sure why damo would be so confident that ND is scum.

##VOTE damo666

Hi everyone. I'm finally back and free (and read up on this game).

So I haven't played since the 20s or 30s (well I think I replaced into a game at the end, called the scum team but got lynched, but I don't count that). Anyway when it comes to scumreads, ND tops them. I've played with town ND and scum ND, and while both of them are usually active and annoying to read, town ND is usually more proactive and less defensive than this ND has been. Also his posts have been a whole lot of fluff and claims almost entirely based upon people going after him and the like. And regardless of whether he's town or not, his post will likely clog up the thread with a really low signal:noise ratio that isn't worth keeping around.

##VoteND

When it comes to other scum reads I feel bozo might fit the bill as his first post was hopping on the EMC wagon with no prior posts and not even adressing emc for a while (except to say he thought he was scum) with a few brief responses to ideas and voting for damo for voting for ND on a post being contradictory which isn't. (The post in question being damo saying "ND likes to change styles from game to game but when he's like this he's scum." which clearly just indicates that while damo understands ND may change up his posting style from game to game, the way he is posting (i.e the lack of actual content) is a usual scum ND tactic.

Not really anyone else strikes me as scummy scummy but I could be mistaken.

When it comes to townreads I trust Espresso and his clear and concise interrogation of ND as well as other thoughts. ALso for me damo reads like someone who while not excessively active is given his relevant thoughts when he can with little fluff.

Also I find that spammers are almost always a negative for town (regardless of alignment) and worse than lurkers (though lurking is bad...funny that I'm saying that). As it's similar to how misinformation is actively worse than lack of information. While lack of substance is bad, spamming confuses and adds chaos to the town trying to solve the game.

Anyway that's what I got for now. Any questions?

Vashta claims damo's read of ND is not contradictory by saying that damo meant "the way he is posting (i.e the lack of actual content) is a usual scum ND tactic". It is suspicious that Vashta feel confident in interpreting what damo meant by "like this".

Also, I find it hard to believe that damo was really one of Vashta's two top town reads based on what damo had posted.

[Foxcastle]

Vote Count 3.1

teacon7 (3) — xorxes, FlaviusAetius, VashtaNeurotic
VashtaNeurotic (2) — bozotheclown, ND
xorxes (1) — teacon7

teacon7 is set to be lynched!

Just under 9.5 hours remain in Day 3.

e.m.c^42, MoscowFleet, and Percy Williams must cast votes.
VashtaNeurotic and Percy Williams must meet the 2-post minimum.

The subs list is currently empty, so while I will try to find replacements if anyone doesn't meet the participation requirements, modkills are a possibility.

[bozotheclown]

xorxes may be correct about teacon, but I find some things in his case on teacon questionable:

I can give you a summary of my case but the only way to convince yourself is reading teacon yourself. Otherwise you only get how I'm reading him.

There were little things that made me feel uneasy about him during D1:

- the way he interrogated emc (I can go into details but it's better if you form your own opinion) it's a sequence of three posts, with a comment from me before he launches the big interrogation)
- the way he dismissed my case on damo (I know others did it as well, including you, but there was something about him that felt particularly wrong).
- the whole scumhunting by tiers thing
- probably some other stuff I'm forgetting now

I agreed with teacon that the similarly worded damo read that seemed to be the only basis for xorxes to scum read damo was not conclusive, even though I was already fairly confident that damo was scum.

Nothing in itself too significant, but it kept building up.

Then after damo's flip I suggested he should be next. He disappeared from the thread after being second poster D1. He explained that as RL, which is possible, but he had time to write his EON novel so he was not completely short of time. Town would rather use whatever time they have for the game to write in the thread instead of retreating to write a novel that probably nobody else but me read anyway.

I think scum would typically prefer to interact in the game thread as well, so I do not see how this is alignment indicative.

I did an iso of damo and noticed that damo only interacted with teacon and Vapor. (And bozo, emc and myself but to a much lesser extent and less significantly.) I found that interesting, and it got me started on Vapor as well (and possibly bozo, but much less likely).

I find this NAI and/or WIFOM.

I did a full reread of teacon's D1 and realized that his vote for damo, though at first sight redeeming, was in fact pretty much forced by the statements he had made, so it didn't really get him off the hook.

I am not inclined to believe teacon would allow himself to be forced by his own statements to vote for damo as scum.

Then he posted his bizarrely long EON post where he mostly defends his actions from my case, while at the same time claiming to believe that I made the case as a ruse to fool scum into keeping me alive. The post also includes unabashed pocketing of ND and very weird reads of Vapor.

I do not see why the length of teacon's EON post is alignment indicative.

Then D2 we had a back and forth that only helped me solidify my read, and when he distorted my case to bring in logical fallacies I knew for sure he was scum. He wasn't interested in finding the truth, he was just interested in winning an argument.

After all that there's other things I kept finding, but adding them here would just detract from the main case, where the confirming thing for me was that he used in a few instances dishonest debating tactics that are only used to win arguments.

Much of what he posts is BS, but I can see he has a great way with words and knows how to win people over.

[teacon7]

I'm glad to see more from other players.

I am glad to see xorx engaging more in a greater variety of topics today - maybe he's taking my critique about tunnel vision to heart? Let's see how things progress as I catch up.

[teacon7]

Teacon, is your post on page 71 the entirety of your case on xorxes?

The pg 71 post is a summary, you'll have to go farther back if you want the primary source quotes that demonstrate it more effectively. Content-wise, I guess I'd add that this doesn't feel like omgus vs omgus, as he's been throwing shade around and re-interpreting everything I'm saying in a negative light. I'd love outside perspective on that by people evaluating our rhetorical intentions.

[teacon7]

Not gonna lie though, scum getting cop and doc on their first two kills makes me think the scumteam includes either xorxes or bozo.

I can get behind that.
You think bozo has a good eye for PR?
Who else here (besides xorx) is capable of that?

[teacon7]

That reminds me...

how good are these people that I've not played with?
who among them has this kind of deadeye NK ability?

What? I thought you believed it was me???

What do you think of teacon's reaction after Espresso's flip? He forgot that he was scumreading me apparently.

This looks to me like Xorx misrepresenting what was said, twisting this to find the worst possible meaning. I didn't forget anything.

I asked a question. There are many people here I've not played with. People who might be very good at this game. There are 2 scum left. What about the people I haven't played with? How good are they? Are any good at spotting PR? Maybe the scumteam is xorx + one of those. It's clear that this team is pretty good. Which of the players in the game has that kind of eye for PR?

Two PR NK'd in a row is a highly unlikely coincidence. Possible, but unlikely. This suggests skill and a good eye for meta. Is xorx' pride wounded that he's not getting credit for the nk's? I'm just trying to get other information. sheesh.

[teacon7]

thought vapor(previous me) was a cop
so any and all evidence against me that is from vapor is a null and void in teacon's eyes as it pointed to a cop.

vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
what? I thought vapor was the cop. I didn't push him because I thought that. I was wrong. Now, I kinda scumread vapor for blabbing about cop stuff so openly. It's possible vapor's talking about it made rdriv open up about cop theory, so that's how the scumteam found the cop.
that specifically^^^^^^^^^^^

... let me get this straight. I want to make sure I clearly understand you.

You're saying that we shouldn't scumread you for anything that vapor did?
or
are you saying that I shouldn't scumread you/vapor now on re-read, because once upon a time I thought vapor was the cop?

Is that what you're saying?

[teacon7]

Flavius followed the "somoene is muddying the waters" schtick that teacon started pushing today.

There's also other stuff that connects Vapor/Flav with teacon if you read carefully.

On the subject of flav:

He's also been been sheeping xorx, and repeating xorx' line of arguments about me:

Siding with xorxes is probably a good idea regardless in this situation

I'm with Vapor and Xorxes on this one guys, they're making the most sense, and with my catching up its just too clear.

xorxes has hit the nail on the head here folks, and usually does.
Durga might be scum as well

This is a crime, a crime that Durga died, who didn't deserve to die. Durga should of been on people's scum lists but over teacon?

Bozo, it was agreed upon that we would have a fight between xorxes and teacon today.
Why are you bringing up another wagon???
Muddies waters
Brings up another wagon.

It doesn't seem to me like he's making very many new arguments. I'll freely admit that I'm having a hard time parsing what he's saying. Either way, It's really NAI on teacon that flav says this stuff.


@xorx - Are you saying that my alignment is contingent on flav's? or that flav's alignment is contingent on mine?

iirc, you pointedly avoided this question last night:

Seriously though, are you still saying either of us are contingent on each other? I'd love this to be on record tonight before another flip.

Hmm, I guess this means it's my turn now.

It's been fun, you've been a worthy opponent.

Lookit if you don't answer the question now, you'll be able to back off of flav later with relative ease.

I think you're avoiding the question now because committing to flav as scum is going to raise uncomfortable questions later.

If you're scum with flav, you want to be able to distance yourself from him by throwing shade. But not too much shade - you want to be able to back off later after I'm gone.

fwiw,
I don't think your scumminess is contingent on flav's. I don't think his is contingent on yours.

So are you or are you not arguing that we're connected?
Why fail to say something about it last night, when you could have died?

[teacon7]

##callGM - Did you see my last callGM?

This game has great flavor. Thanks @foxcastle!
But tbh the way it's being played reminds me a bit of a gang fight in prison. Too many shivs.

[teacon7]

I do not think the majority of players agreed to xorxes and teacon. I did say I thought it was a good idea at EOD, but I changed my mind.

Curious:
Why did you say that at EoD?
Why did you change your mind?

[teacon7]

In my experience, scum rarely pile on the same wagon at EoD. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it happen. So look at this list and take notes.

What was it about this vote distribution (which seems pretty ordinary for half an hour before EOD) led you to make that comment? What did you want us to conclude from it?

Thanks for reminding me of this.

In my experience, as both scum and as town doing EoD analysis, maf psych tends to want to avoid getting too connected with one another. I recall HR saying in my first game as scum to try to stay on different wagons. I've seen other webdip mafia players who predate me say similar things. I'm sure that it's not always the case that scum stays off of the same wagons, but I recall that scum psych lends itself towards maintaining distance from other scum players.

At the time I said this, I noted three distinct groups of voters: Those on ND, those on damo, and those on "off wagons"/small wagons. I was watching for EoD movement because I was anticipating two things: scum creating chaos at EoD, and the maf psych behavior of trying to avoid being connected to one another.

As far as conclusions, I'd think that maf psych tries to distance a connection from one another. That can mean "don't be on the same wagon as a buddy," sure. Notice the added italics in my quote above though - scum rarely pile on the same wagon at the same time. Not unless it's lylo and they're doing it to win. Would you, as scum, feel comfortable changing wagons near the same time as one or two teammates? So you figure that one moves to consolidate on a "sure thing" wagon for towncred, but other scum on other wagons don't move.

imo one EoD1 conclusion here is that if there's scum among me/emc/moscow, there's only one scum among that group because moving in a pack on d1 seems risky.

I suppose we could speculate about maf psych to figure out when they'd likely settle on a wagon. I was thinking that late day movement is suspect for the chaos it causes, and that's why I scumread durga so hard.

[Foxcastle]

If this was a real lynch mob, they'd be able to just string us both up at once.
##callGM - Is it possible to lynch two people at once?

##GM NOTE: No, it is not possible to lynch two people at once. Per the rules, in the case of a tie, no one is lynched.

[teacon7]

xorx is trying to get me lynched.
I'm trying to solve the game
xorx is making it sound like he's already solved the game.
who is that certain in their reads? Are any of you?

So because I'm certain of my read I must be wrong? I have been certain and right more than a few times before.

No, that's not what I said.

I didn't say: certain reads are necessarily wrong reads
I've said elsewhere and I alluded to it here: certainty is not indicative of town psych, but maf psych. At the very least, it's not pro-town.

This game is about an information differential. The only things town can know for certain are our own alignment and that of those who die. I'm in a position to know that you're wrong about my alignment. I clearly can't expect you to believe me (or acknowledge) when I say that I'm vt. Fine.

How certain you are isn't at all relevant to whether you're right or wrong. It's the certainty that's pro-scum. It's not good methodology, it's not indicative of town psych. Even if someone has a good instinct in the past, it's no guarantee you'll be right in the future. If we're supposed to rely on someone's gut instincts and confidence... That's easily abused. One scum could easily bus his team for towncred quite confidently, and yeah, it'd look like he had some great instincts. But would you believe me if I said "hey well you're scum because I'm right!" ... no, you wouldn't. And you shouldn't.

Scum psych has motive to appear super confident: it conveys confidence that attracts unsure town.
Town psych is naturally weak to confident appearance: confused town will gravitate toward the confidence it lacks due to the information differential.

This kind of confidence is the kind of un-self-critical attitude that used to get called cocksure. Good word here. (Maybe "xorxure" for fun?) Even if it's overconfident town case making, It shuts down other rational discussion which isn't helpful.

Being cocksure doesn't correlate to being right. xorx' overconfidence in his gut is actively harmful to town, and indicative of a pro-maf way of making cases.

[teacon7]

I have played several games with Vashta, and I think he was town in all of those games. From what I remember, he was never a high poster, but always put effort into trying to solve the game, and was often on the right track. Here he is saying he is confused, asking other players to explain things to him, and claiming he is not reading most of the posts. This is inconsistent with anything I remember about Vashta as town.

Can you point me to some game where Vashta put any effort early?

I will reread Vashta. I think he's been playing anti-town, but I haven't seen anything especially scummy from him other than lurking which is unfortunately not that AI around here.

I'll confirm that. What I remember of Vash is that he doesn't post much. It's better than like guak level of participation, but not too much more.

Vash this game has seemed more coherent, but less invested. Not sure if that makes sense. He's speaking in summary sort of statements (rather than in-line responses to people), but isn't doing too much questioning or case-making.

rdriv pointed out that this fits the profile of a low-investment poster, which he and I both said was not pro-town. I'd think it is slightly AI in general (i.e., scum is more likely to lurk than to chat), but it's not helpful differentiation for this game.

[teacon7]

I was doing rereads and noticed this fun fact. Not quite sure what to make of it yet.

Remember that too-good-to-be-real one-in-a-million read xorx' gut got on damo for copied reads?

Scum-xorxes, last game:

bozo seems like his methodical self, but that's not too hard to fake as scum. Could be.

Flavius, Yavu, Claesar, Vapor, worcej, dargo...
Yeah, I think I need to keep reading.

scum-damo, this game:

Percy not so sure about.
Like to hear more from einstein and xorxes.
Bozo his usual logical self. Impossible to guess his alignment.
rdr moved to null.

https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/gn53pkt5UYBB
...says the m45 scumteam was: bozo, yavu, xorx, and flav.

In m45, that's how xorx read someone who WAS ON HIS OWN SCUMTEAM

In m1007, is damo copying reads alignment indicative for bozo?

@xorx - does this seem alignment indicative at all for bozo? please discuss, since you're the expert at seeing similarities here.

In this scenario, no wonder scum!xorx bussed the hell out of damo this game. If the scumteam is damo/xorx/bozo, damo was a real liability!

[teacon7]

Let's compare the whole list of reads. If, as xorx says, there is much to be made of the little similarities here, then let's look into it. Why not? I found his initial case hard to believe and a little bit too much conclusion from not enough information. But what they heck. Let's see. If scum-damo really was emulating xorx' last game as scum, maybe there are more similarities.

m45 scum-xorx did this on day 2:

Leaning strong town on damoand Neph at the moment, because of EOD and general demeanor.

I don't like Moscow being away today but I suppose we can wait one day.

Durga and rivera are hard to read. I can see al least one of them being scum but I don't have anything concrete.

brainbomb becomes more obvious after someone flips scum because he has opinions about everybody.

bozo seems like his methodical self, but that's not too hard to fake as scum. Could be.

I'm keeping an eye on Jamiet. I didn't like Ezio at all but him being replaced means we can't really attribute anything nefarious to his absence.

Flavius, Yavu, Claesar, Vapor, worcej, dargo...

Yeah, I think I need to keep reading.

To list it all a different way, it was largely a set of nullreads:
"leaning a strong town": 2 town (damo / neph)
players not mentioned: 1 (dead bo_sox)
"keep an eye on": 2 town (jamie / EzioElectric)
"not happy about lurking": 1 town (moscow)
"hard to read" : 2 town (durga / rivera)
"have to wait and see" : 1 town (brainbomb)

"like to hear more from" : 4 town (clae/vapor/worcej/dargo), 2 scum (m45 flav / yavu)
"could go either way" : 1 scum (m45 bozo)

Info from the m45 info qt.


But now it's m1007, and scum-damo did this:

Excellent content from Espresso and Vash. Townread both.

Also liking the content from Moscow and town leaning.

Fairly confident Durga is town.

Percy not so sure about.

Like to hear more from [color]einstein and xorxes[/color].

Bozo his usual logical self. Impossible to guess his alignment.

rdr moved to null.

ND subject of next post.

To summarize with the information we have so far:
"leaning a strong town": 3: 1 town, 2 unknown (espresso / vash / durga)
"town leaning": 1 unknown: moscow
players not mentioned: 2: 2 unknowns (teacon / ND)
"keep an eye on" : 1 unkonwn (percy)
"null" / "hard to read"? : 1 town (rdrivera)
"like to hear more from" : 2 unknowns: (xorx and emc)
"could go either way" : 1 unknown (bozo)


Can we conclude anything from this?
I might not have enough information for the kind of confidence that xorx had d1, but there are some leads here.

If xorx ran once with the idea that damo copied reads, maybe let's agree with him. It's quite the compliment for damo to do that, actually. If we amplify the one-in-a-million gut read that xorx had ... maybe there are more similarities. I saw the similarity, but I didn't there there was much to it at the time. Then again, I scumread damo for other reasons.

Does anyone else see other similarities?
Can you see how this fits with the "damo's reads were a liability so go bus him" framework I'm pitching?

scum-damo read xorx/emc
the same way that
m45scum-xorx read teammates flav/yavu:
"I'd like to hear more from them"

scum-damo read bozo
the same way that
m45scum-xorx read teammate scum-bozo:
"usual logical/methodical self"

[FlaviusAetius]

Not gonna lie though, scum getting cop and doc on their first two kills makes me think the scumteam includes either xorxes or bozo.

I can get behind that.
You think bozo has a good eye for PR?
Who else here (besides xorx) is capable of that?

Bozo most definitely does not, last game he had no idea who the doctor was

[FlaviusAetius]

@bozo I see Vash’s reaction to the flip but I’m having trouble seeing exactly what’s so incriminating about it. Seems like a lame joke to me more than anything else.

Yes, Vash hasn’t posted much and could be lurky scum, but I haven’t seen anything from him that couldn’t come from town. I don’t think we should lynch outside of Teacon/Xorxes right now because if we mislynch today, and then guess wrong on Teacon/Xorxes, we’re putting ourselves at lylo, or WCS teac/xorx is TvT and we lose the game.

I think Vashta's reaction is suspicious because it is contradictory to his actions at EOD, where he tried to save himself and get Durga lynched.

We lose the game only if Vashta, teacon, and xorxes are all town, something xorxes says is impossible. If we lynch Vashta, teacon, xorxes, and Flavius, we will win if the 2 scum are among those 4. Is there anyone else you currently would prefer to lynch before any of those 4?

Why are you all of a sudden gunho Vashta? Where were you when we were grilling teacon?
Those arguments you made weren't convincing, and now you are responding to everything!