M1010 Mini-Mafia

[damo666]

brain has claimed PR and will be dead tonight if he is telling the truth

Why would you say that, since the mafia would have no way of knowing if it is true (they obviously know now)?

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

did you omit a 'not' here?

[Foxcastle]

brain has claimed PR and will be dead tonight if he is telling the truth

Why would you say that, since the mafia would have no way of knowing if it is true (they obviously know now)?

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

At some point, though, you have to account for Brain's rampant fakeclaims as both alignments in the past. I'm not saying it counts for nothing, but it's severely discounted in his case. And in this instance, I don't believe it at all.

[Jamiet99uk]

Just a reminder that EON is in 1 hour and 30 minutes.

Thank you, talking clock.

[Foxcastle]

I think Bo is the most interesting BunnyGo target. It adds information about whether D1 was TvT or TvS and it helps shed additional light on two other players, me and SarahK. I'm not sure anyone else's flip provides that much useful intel, and I think that would be a good option weighed against the likelihood of aiming for scum and hitting town.

[Jamiet99uk]

Why would you say that, since the mafia would have no way of knowing if it is true (they obviously know now)?

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

At some point, though, you have to account for Brain's rampant fakeclaims as both alignments in the past. I'm not saying it counts for nothing, but it's severely discounted in his case. And in this instance, I don't believe it at all.

What don't you believe, specifically?

[Jamiet99uk]

I think Bo is the most interesting BunnyGo target. It adds information about whether D1 was TvT or TvS and it helps shed additional light on two other players, me and SarahK. I'm not sure anyone else's flip provides that much useful intel, and I think that would be a good option weighed against the likelihood of aiming for scum and hitting town.

What do you think about Bozo's suggestion that the optimal play is for the Vengeful simply to drift peacefully away to the boneyard without firing at all?

[Foxcastle]

Just a reminder that EON is in 1 hour and 30 minutes.

Thank you, talking clock.

Yeah, I'm trying to be helpful because EON is at a different time and this place is rife with people who don't pay attention. I want people to get EON reads in and PRs to submit actions, rather than showing up in 5 hours wondering why it's already Day 2. Why is your reaction to pro-town reminder to be mocking?

[Jamiet99uk]

Just a reminder that EON is in 1 hour and 30 minutes.

Thank you, talking clock.

Yeah, I'm trying to be helpful because EON is at a different time and this place is rife with people who don't pay attention. I want people to get EON reads in and PRs to submit actions, rather than showing up in 5 hours wondering why it's already Day 2. Why is your reaction to pro-town reminder to be mocking?

That's easy. I'm an asshole. I mock everyone.

[damo666]

Just a reminder that EON is in 1 hour and 30 minutes.

Thank you, talking clock.

Yeah, I'm trying to be helpful because EON is at a different time and this place is rife with people who don't pay attention. I want people to get EON reads in and PRs to submit actions, rather than showing up in 5 hours wondering why it's already Day 2. Why is your reaction to pro-town reminder to be mocking?

He can't help himself. He sees an opportunity and cannot resist.

[damo666]

Thank you, talking clock.

Yeah, I'm trying to be helpful because EON is at a different time and this place is rife with people who don't pay attention. I want people to get EON reads in and PRs to submit actions, rather than showing up in 5 hours wondering why it's already Day 2. Why is your reaction to pro-town reminder to be mocking?

He can't help himself. He sees an opportunity and cannot resist.

Aha. Xpost proves me correct!

[xorxes]

Why would you say that, since the mafia would have no way of knowing if it is true (they obviously know now)?

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

did you omit a 'not' here?

I don't think so, why? If he was VT faking PR, mafia killing him is a very good thing.

[xorxes]

Why would you say that, since the mafia would have no way of knowing if it is true (they obviously know now)?

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

At some point, though, you have to account for Brain's rampant fakeclaims as both alignments in the past. I'm not saying it counts for nothing, but it's severely discounted in his case. And in this instance, I don't believe it at all.

I didn't believe the claim either, but as you say that's NAI for him. He may have made it because emc said he was not shitposting enough.

[xorxes]

I think Bo is the most interesting BunnyGo target. It adds information about whether D1 was TvT or TvS and it helps shed additional light on two other players, me and SarahK. I'm not sure anyone else's flip provides that much useful intel, and I think that would be a good option weighed against the likelihood of aiming for scum and hitting town.

It also sheds quite a lot of info on me, Jamie, rivera and bozo.

[bozotheclown]

If BunnyGo does not fire, it will be 8-3 tomorrow, and we will have 2 mislynches, assuming no doc saves. If BunnyGo fires and hits town, it will be 7-3 tomorrow, and we will have 1 mislynch, assuming no doc saves. If BunnyGo fires and hits scum, it will be 8-2 tomorrow, and we will have 2 mislynch, assuming no doc saves. So, the correct play is for BunnyGo not to shoot, because it could cost us a mislynch, with a low chance of gaining us a mislynch. The only way it would gain us a mislynch is if he hits scum and we get a doc save.

Since BunnyGo ended the day voting for me, I am concerned he could shoot me, which would likely result in town only having 1 mislynch available.

You've posted War and Peace on Bo_Sox, seeming very confident he's scum. Yet rather than advocating for Bunny to shoot Bo, your avowed scumread, you'd rather he simply drifts away to the God QT without firing?

I mean, your numbers aren't wrong, but this suggests you're less confident of your Bo_Sox read than you've been suggesting, Bozo.

We are better off lynching bo_sox in case I am wrong.

[damo666]

Lynching someone who claims PR with no counterclaim is never a good idea. Even if he was fakeclaiming as town, encouraging mafia to kill him for that is also a good thing.

did you omit a 'not' here?

I don't think so, why? If he was VT faking PR, mafia killing him is a very good thing.

Yeah. Your 'also' confused me.

[bozotheclown]

The only problem with me enjoying Bozo being so wrong is that I think he's town and he's wrong about me not being town. I still think Bo is town too, but I could be wrong about that.

I still feel that Damo is scum. I should actually re-read him, though I doubt there's much there.

I think everyone on the BunnyGo wagon looks townie. However, it would make sense for Jamiet or Xorxes to be scum, and they shifted to keep the Bo question alive for a future mislynch. I think it's possible, if unlikely.

Rdrivera looks scummy to me, but I am usually wrong on that, so Rdrivera is probably town. EMC is townie. SarahK is probably town, unless Bo is scum, in which case she might actually have followed him.

Worcej and Brainbomb are null-ish at the moment. They could be scum.

If I am not town then I am not really wrong, so I am not sure I understand your first statement.

[worcej]

I have 10 pages to read. Why do you choose to lynch Bunny over Bo?

Bo is great at dodging the kill on D1. Last game I was vig I had the order to shoot him wrote and didn't send (and he was scum and I shoot a townie).

Jamiet and Xorxes look pretty bad only based on the bot. Will read now.

So what do you think after reading EOD?

I think Jamiet might be scum. I still think Bo could be scum. Xorxes is null as he was really scumreading Bunny before and avoided a tie as Bo could vote Bunny.
I still suspect Brain a bit and also Fox.

The most weird thing this game is that I don't have any solid townread.

I have more solid town reads than I normally do: Fox, xorxes, bo, Jamie

Town-probablies: sarah and kgray

Skeptical: emc and damo

Most likely scum: bozo and rdr

[kgray]

bozotheclown - town. I like the way he pushed bo yesterday and reacted to his own pressure, and I think he's coming from a towny mindset.
bo_sox48 - I did think him quitting was scummy but thought he seemed towny when he came back. The biggest thing I don't like about him is that he tried to make it sound like people were only voting for Fox because they thought he was bussing Fox, when half the Fox wagon at the time did it because Fox claimed to be scum. I think that using Sarah's vote as the main case against bo would be silly, but there are enough other reasons for peoples' scumreads of bo that I don't think the pressure on him is unjustified.
brainbomb - brain is really different from last game, imo. He seems more annoyed and less involved. I don't know what that means about his alignment. I didn't like his EOD at all, I think fake claiming to get out of a lynch is really scummy, regardless of if you do that often.
damo666 - I didn't like damo's EOE either, he seemed like he was just watching what happened without really caring about the result, which seemed weird because he had said he thought bo could be town and especially now that he's saying he still thinks brain is scum. I think damo/brain could be scum together, but probably not damo/bo.
e.m.c^42 - emc seems towny. He called himself out for also not having a great EOD, but that's hard for me to parse without being clear on who emc's reads are and why. I don't see where he explained his scumread of Sarah and he said he couldn't articulate why he thought worcej was scummy - hopefully he can figure that out soon and share with us.
Foxcastle - I really don't think Fox claiming scum is that scummy. If it's out of character for him, then maybe, but if he thought he was going to be lynched through no fault of his own (bozo was voting him even though he had a stronger scumread on bo) then I think his claim is NAI. Overall Fox has seemed fairly towny to me. I think a bo/Fox/Sarah scumteam is unlikely, because I don't think if Sarah is noob-scum she'd vote for her teammate.
Jamiet99uk - pretty null, but leaning towards town.
SarahK24 - null. I'm not at all convinced that Sarah and bo are scum together. I think the main point against that theory is that she tried to vote a few hours before bo's Foxcastle vote. And, when she had that invalid vote, Fox and worcej had been talking about how they would deal with their protest later. This is the only thing I can find that would cause Sarah to think worcej was Fox's scheming partner.
rdrivera2005 - towny. He seems similar to last game.
xorxes - town. He seems very different from last game.
worcej - pretty null, but leaning towards town.

[Chaqa]

EoN is in 7 minutes. I may be a bit late on the processing message as I have a meeting at exactly phase switch (but I don't have to say anything until later, so I should be able to do the processing).

[Chaqa]

Night has ended. Please hold.