Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[Control V]

Dream Traveler feels a bit too restrained.

Bo Sox's #33 might be scummy as it feels very real but should be a continuation of a joke. Or might be nothing?

Bunny feels very towny but not technically 100% sure rn.

[DreamTrawler]

Dream Traveler feels a bit too restrained.

Bo Sox's #33 might be scummy as it feels very real but should be a continuation of a joke. Or might be nothing?

Bunny feels very towny but not technically 100% sure rn.

Restrained how? This is only my second game and I still haven’t really gotten up to scratch on what tells people have in the early game. I have 1-3 suspects but don’t feel strongly enough to vote yet.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hello, Fellow Potatoes.

##VOTE Jamie

No true Irishman.

Oh look Ghug voting me D1 WHAT A SURPRISE

[Jamiet99uk]

Fake dumbslip

Or obvious sarcasm.

*Puts on braincap* This is the actual bus. Bunny and D&W are scum.

Nah, Jamie’s the scum. He’s frustrated D&W called him on something that is correct he’s scum but was factually incorrect.

I'm town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think the explosion chance is calculated independently for each potato, so with enough potatoes it would be pretty likely that they die. I’m not amazing at math so please correct me if wrong- 75% chance of survival, so multiply .75 for each potato? So for example someone with 3 potatoes is .75 x .75 x .75 = .421875. Subtract that from 1 and someone with 3 potatoes at EoN has a 57.8125% chance of going boom.

Isn’t each one predetermined to explode at a different phase?

I thought they were each predetermined to activate at a different phase, upon which they have a 25% chance of exploding at the end of day/night.

No they have a 25 percent chance of exploding in any given phase, which has been pre-rolled for each potato.

[Jamiet99uk]

But no players are given special roles so that's not a thing, so fuck it who cares

I’m picturing bo making a post about PRs, then remembering to check the rules. Then posting this. I don’t remember him well enough to say what this indicates, but seems slightly scummy to me in a vacuum.

Yeah, you’re picturing me replying off the cuff to a post about something that could reveal PRs and then checking to see what the mechanics are around PRs only to recall that there are, in fact, no PRs because I replied off the cuff to a post about something that could reveal PRs and then checked to see what the mechanica are around PRs only to recall that there are, in fact, no PRs. Excellent work

Are you a member of the potato gang or the vanilla cabbages?

[Jamiet99uk]

Town driving a potato onto a PR and forcing them out is a potential detriment.

Which PRs?

Hey Jamie, good to know reading one post further is still a challenge for you

I was reading Flavius styleee

[Jamiet99uk]

Sup I have a hot potato and I'm gonna do some shit with it

I fear what you are planning has a 27.5% chance of damage to the rectal zone.

[Jamiet99uk]

hello

I have a potato

I don't think we should be revealing information until we see reason to.

Do you object to keeping track of the exploding potatoes? Do you see a way that revealing that information helps the mafia?

Robot Detective is on the scene.

[Jamiet99uk]

Isn’t each one predetermined to explode at a different phase?

I thought they were each predetermined to activate at a different phase, upon which they have a 25% chance of exploding at the end of day/night.

No they have a 25 percent chance of exploding in any given phase, which has been pre-rolled for each potato.

Oh I'm wrong apparently. They only have a 0.25 chance of exploding after a certain phase. I think that has been amended compared to the initial draft that Sparty showed to me.

[damo666]

I thought they were each predetermined to activate at a different phase, upon which they have a 25% chance of exploding at the end of day/night.

No they have a 25 percent chance of exploding in any given phase, which has been pre-rolled for each potato.

Oh I'm wrong apparently. They only have a 0.25 chance of exploding after a certain phase. I think that has been amended compared to the initial draft that Sparty showed to me.

Yes, they get primed on successive nights and can explode each phase with 25% chance once primed (until they explode ofc, nobody has heard of an exploding exploded potato). It is highly unlikely but possible that all the early primed potatoes survive and all 7 explode in the same phase. That would be fun. Won't happen though.

[damo666]

This is an interesting article

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potoooooooo

[rdrivera2005]

Anyway, I'll bbl b/c ND has some other things to do tonight.

Brazilian butt lift?

I have nothing to do with ND, I swear lol

By the way, hy everybody, good and rotten potatoes.

[rdrivera2005]

Expected hot potato deaths are as follows:-

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 57%
N6 49%
D7 44%
N7 40%
D8 37%
N8 34%
D9 31%
N9 29%
D10 28%
N10 26%

Although I doubt the game will go beyond D7.

Damo's doing weird Math is usually a towny sign.

Buy I guess it makes some sense and I don't have the time to check it.

[damo666]

rdr buddying me is a scum sign

[damo666]

Potatoes with moustaches or bandanas are scum indicative.

[miminena]

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

I suspect you omitted 'at least'.

ah yeah i missed the part where they stay activated :p

[BunnyGo]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

Yes?

Why?

To say it is to ruin it

[BunnyGo]

More information is usually better for town, unless there is a corresponding detriment.

You think potatoes are AI or worthwhile information?

The information would come from everyone claiming to have a potato explaining why they passed it the way they did. Also, after D1, the mafia would not be able to pass potatoes secretly.

Yawn


None of that has to or should happen now. Especially not the discussion.

And it can start any time later.

[BunnyGo]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

Not based on my understanding of how the exploding potatoes work. If my calculations are correct, the chance of a potato explosion occurring in any specific phase never exceeds 56%, which occurs on N7.

Show your work

##vote bozo