Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[bo_sox48]

I’m glad you don’t remember me well enough to know what that post means but you’re still able to scumread me, though. Solid stuff

[bo_sox48]

Town driving a potato onto a PR and forcing them out is a potential detriment.

Which PRs?

Hey Jamie, good to know reading one post further is still a challenge for you

[bo_sox48]

Assuming a decent amount of potatoes remain unexploded in the late game I think it would be pretty funny to coordinate passing them all to one person.

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

I know who I'm buddying.

Not exclaiming how upset you are to see me back in this hellhole again on your first post tells me that either you are scum or you finally developed some self control, and I don’t believe that is possible

[bo_sox48]

because we have prs

Fake dumbslip

Or obvious sarcasm.

*Puts on braincap* This is the actual bus. Bunny and D&W are scum.

That would be the worst bus in history, so you’re probably the one bussing

[Chaqa]

Sup I have a hot potato and I'm gonna do some shit with it

[Chaqa]

So tell me... who is feeling lucky?

[bozotheclown]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

Yes?

Why?

[bozotheclown]

I believe the potatoes aren’t active Day 1? So I guess at this point it isn’t super useful info. But also why disclose? They all are required to be thrown besides the couch and rotten.

More information is usually better for town, unless there is a corresponding detriment.

You think potatoes are AI or worthwhile information?

The information would come from everyone claiming to have a potato explaining why they passed it the way they did. Also, after D1, the mafia would not be able to pass potatoes secretly.

[bozotheclown]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

Not based on my understanding of how the exploding potatoes work. If my calculations are correct, the chance of a potato explosion occurring in any specific phase never exceeds 56%, which occurs on N7.

[bozotheclown]

hello

I have a potato

I don't think we should be revealing information until we see reason to.

Do you object to keeping track of the exploding potatoes? Do you see a way that revealing that information helps the mafia?

[bozotheclown]

I think the explosion chance is calculated independently for each potato, so with enough potatoes it would be pretty likely that they die. I’m not amazing at math so please correct me if wrong- 75% chance of survival, so multiply .75 for each potato? So for example someone with 3 potatoes is .75 x .75 x .75 = .421875. Subtract that from 1 and someone with 3 potatoes at EoN has a 57.8125% chance of going boom.

Isn’t each one predetermined to explode at a different phase?

I thought they were each predetermined to activate at a different phase, upon which they have a 25% chance of exploding at the end of day/night.

This is the way I am assuming they work.

[damo666]

how so? idr understand the mech :p

I don't follow either.

@Bozo please expand

"If you are a member of the mafia, you may not pass the sweet potato to another mafia member."

If we know player 1 passed the SP to player 2 at some point, and player 2 gets revealed as mafia by way of DK or exploding potato, player 1 is cleared.

Ah yes. Thank you.

[damo666]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

No they wouldn't

[damo666]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

Wrong.

1-0.75^n

[damo666]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

I suspect you omitted 'at least'.

[damo666]

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

I think the explosion chance is calculated independently for each potato, so with enough potatoes it would be pretty likely that they die. I’m not amazing at math so please correct me if wrong- 75% chance of survival, so multiply .75 for each potato? So for example someone with 3 potatoes is .75 x .75 x .75 = .421875. Subtract that from 1 and someone with 3 potatoes at EoN has a 57.8125% chance of going boom.

Isn’t each one predetermined to explode at a different phase?

More not to explode before a certain phase. The further in we get the more primed spuds there are.

[damo666]

pass it to damo

Solid opening.

Sadly I think Red is scum…

And I refuse to vote him today if he keeps this up.

all i did was say we collectively eliminate damo

Why?

[damo666]

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

Wrong.

1-0.75^n

This is also wrong; it ignores the delays to priming and the sweet potato.

[damo666]

Expected hot potato deaths are as follows:-

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 57%
N6 49%
D7 44%
N7 40%
D8 37%
N8 34%
D9 31%
N9 29%
D10 28%
N10 26%

Although I doubt the game will go beyond D7.

[damo666]

Expected hot potato deaths are as follows:-

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 57%
N6 49%
D7 44%
N7 40%
D8 37%
N8 34%
D9 31%
N9 29%
D10 28%
N10 26%

Although I doubt the game will go beyond D7.

ignores sweet potato