MAFIA 64 - The Z Files - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

But those lurkers won't be contributing, so your plan is just cutting off info that we could be getting from active players early. How is your suggestion better than getting rid of lurkers now, and keeping active people around so that we get more info from them as the game goes on?

I'm not saying we draw up a list of players now to dk, and I'm not saying "we can't kill lurkers until d4." However, I am saying that putting together dead active player's reads and such is way better than the same for someone who posted 20 messages a day.

Okay. And I'm saying it's easier to tell someone's alignment if they are active than if they are not. And if they're town and they're contributing, then we have extra help solving compared to a lurker who isn't really playing.

A lurker doesn't get us anything alive or dead. An active player gives info while they're alive. So for an extreme and poorly quantized example, say you have 2 lurkers and 2 active players, and the lurkers provide 0 info per day and the active players provide 5 info per day. We have to kill all 4 in the first 4 days.

If we kill the active players the first two days and then the two lurkers, then at the end of 4 days we have 15 infos.

If we kill the lurkers first and then the active players, then at the end of 4 days we have 35 infos.

So clearly we get more information by killing lurkers before active players.

Ok damo

[BobMcBob]

This is missing my point. You're not a good early dk target because of your playstyle last game - you're a good early dk target because you flipping gives us a lot of info on a lot of people. I'd put ghug, kgray, bunny, and maybe donny in this category, off the top of my head.

Yeah, no. We're not killing someone who's towny for "info" D1 (or ever, if I have my way).

He insisted they kill him for info last game, so it is actually his opinion.

Worcej townread him and agreed lol

Still not a particularly helpful one. Bona seems like next-level mechs man but without a massclaim addiction. And not in a particularly good way.

[BobMcBob]

How have you avoided my math question?

a) brilliantly
b) evasively
c) scornfully
d) probably
e) like a goat

Finally an actually interesting and applicable math calculation and you dodge it? Who are you? Ghug, did you hack Damo’s account?

Maybe he just likes looking useful without being useful. Too much work to do overly complex maths if it's actually helpful, you know what I mean?

[ghug]

Uh. Why do you think ghug is town?

He's not my strongest read anymore, but his early game seemed less on edge than last game. It seemed more carefree and silly.

Huh. That's not what I expected you to say at all, I didn't think he seemed carefree and silly. I think he seems annoyed and uptight.

Annoyed and silly, I think. Half credit for each of you.

[ghug]

Like I said earlier, they have a reasonable post count but very few ideas or things that would relate their alignment to other people that we can use.

Could say the same thing about you, my friend

We have an entire hour's worth of stuff that people can poke through to figure out between me, you, and bunny

No, because it's about philosophy and not people it's pretty much useless for reading y'all.

[DemonRHK]

Bot of 45:

Good luck on your dip game all. Last time we tried that the mastermind of the game got banned/left the site mid game.

Not a lot of new content here, just more retracing of points made and re-establishing existing positions.

My leading scumreads are Bob and bona. I've got a strong feeling on Bunny but I'm not certain if it's a scumread or frustration.

Back on 50.

[BobMcBob]

If I'm being totally honest I couldn't remember why I scumread him in the first place by the time I voted for him, and I think he's more inclined to avoid reacting emotionally to being the second place wagon halfway through D1 if he's scum. I'm not convinced he's town yet either, but emotional brain has always been someone I've been able to read, so I'm not too concerned.

for gods sakes this is just ridiculous. you invent any lame reason to come after me every game. you even do it when were teammates. Like maybe youre obsessed with me or its a self fulfilling prophecy but its just nonsense and youve been shot down repeatedly on it so give it a goddamn rest already

What does this rant have to do with the post it's quoting?

Many things, ghug, many things. He thinks your reason for voting him and staying on him was completely ridiculous and felt unfairly targeted in an unhelpful way, as he clearly said.

[ghug]

I actually don't hate everything Bunny has said this game, which concerns me but isn't something I want to think about at the moment. I think I townread you slightly for how much I disagree with you?

Who is actually scummy?

Celaph, lfischl, you.

These games are hard because the behavioral scumtells are so easy to avoid when you have another scumteam to hunt for, so I'm expecting to be especially inaccurate early.

Did I make this list out of fear like kgray? Because you had trouble spelling my name like LfischL? Or some actual reason?

In all seriousness if I had to guess I would say activity, but I'll let you say more if you want.

It's cause you were super insightful last game and haven't been this game, and your analysis of me earlier struck me as flame stoking.

[ghug]

Ok...now you're just fu**ing with us to see how long we continue to believe you can actually think this. Right?

On d1 I actually do think it is better to vote brain than any of three I listed aside from maybe lfischl if he starts posting more. I prefer pressuring bunny or celaph, but if the choice is brain or ezio, I know what I'm choosing.

If you prefer to pressure me then why aren't you doing so? Throw some questions at me.

Ooh and I hate this post.

[ghug]

Regarding the recent Bona conversations, I'm inclined to agree with the Bona town read. For one, I agree that it is really really bold for scum to take such an odd line D1. Partly because for better or worse I imagine that this D1 gets him killed if he goes late. Secondly, because I think Bona's change in style comes from a towny place. Specifically, it seems like he is emulating D1 Chaqa last game, just with a total lack of understanding of the rationale behind the actions.

Ooh but I like this one. I don't really see how it's like Chaqa though.

[celaph]

Why do you think it it useless? We already have 6 discarded mafia claims, and the most likely number of mafia cards dealt is 10. I think that is interesting and potentially useful.

It's worth noting that more discarded mafia cards increase the likelihood that a larger than expected number of mafia cards were given out. That said, I doubt many scum would risk claiming to discard a card that they didn't have. So while it may be interesting, I'm expecting that its use will be limited outside of lovers.

Got any reads, celaph?

I like you, BB, and Bona.

You because you're asking the right questions and as rdr said, you're saying the things that I want to say which gave me the correct good vibes M62. Perhaps also because I haven't been badly burned by scum kgray yet, though that will wait to be seen.

BB because I'm getting genuine enthusiasm which makes me think he got a role that he likes. I also think he is more likely PR than VT because of that. Lastly, his defense of himself against Bona and his wagon in general sounded like someone who knew they were right, but were hoping to keep their hand back.

As I've mentioned earlier I'm getting weird vibes from ghug. I feel like he believed more in the D1 ND push in M62 than he has believed in any of the pushes the last two games.

The other person I'm keeping an eye on right now is Bunny. His game reminds me more of his M62 performance so far than his M63 one. He's lacking a level of confidence.

That said, I have no one I'm particularly keen on voting out so far so waiting so see where I will put that.

[ghug]

(25/68)*(24/67) =14.3% chance a player is not given at least one town choice.

Yes and no.

It is 14.3% to 1 dp but not the lhs.

It is 325/2278

Thank you for letting me know that bozo's answer was inaccurate by .034(ish) of a percent, I am sure this information will come in handy.

Bob is totally succeeding in buddying me.

[BobMcBob]

Hi Jasnah - I don’t think we’ve played together before. Vecna’s Not the worst person to follow, but try and make your own decisions. Some players have such good scum games they can lead you astray so easily. If you have to follow anyone, follow me. I usually solve the game at some point. Ask anyone.

Thank you Maniac. It's only a pity they haven't made you mod yet so you can solve the site's cheating problems as well. But I agree, it's good to make your own decisions about things in this game.

I think with a good campaign agent and a slush fund I might make mod this year. Fancy the job?

Certainly, I wouldn't mind signing up for this. When do I start?

[ghug]

for gods sakes this is just ridiculous. you invent any lame reason to come after me every game. you even do it when were teammates. Like maybe youre obsessed with me or its a self fulfilling prophecy but its just nonsense and youve been shot down repeatedly on it so give it a goddamn rest already

What does this rant have to do with the post it's quoting?

Many things, ghug, many things. He thinks your reason for voting him and staying on him was completely ridiculous and felt unfairly targeted in an unhelpful way, as he clearly said.

He was responding to my explanation of no longer scumreading him as if it was more scumreading.

[celaph]

Regarding the recent Bona conversations, I'm inclined to agree with the Bona town read. For one, I agree that it is really really bold for scum to take such an odd line D1. Partly because for better or worse I imagine that this D1 gets him killed if he goes late. Secondly, because I think Bona's change in style comes from a towny place. Specifically, it seems like he is emulating D1 Chaqa last game, just with a total lack of understanding of the rationale behind the actions.

Ooh but I like this one. I don't really see how it's like Chaqa though.

Chaqa D1 last game pushed really hard against the ND D1 DK because it gave no info. Bona's pushes this game align with that logic at the most basic level, use the daykill for info. It's not like Chaqa in that I think Chaqa had a better understanding of the underlying arguments, but as we've seen with Bona and voting to create ties, that is part of his game that is the weakest.

[ghug]

It's worth noting that more discarded mafia cards increase the likelihood that a larger than expected number of mafia cards were given out. That said, I doubt many scum would risk claiming to discard a card that they didn't have. So while it may be interesting, I'm expecting that its use will be limited outside of lovers.

Got any reads, celaph?

I like you, BB, and Bona.

You because you're asking the right questions and as rdr said, you're saying the things that I want to say which gave me the correct good vibes M62. Perhaps also because I haven't been badly burned by scum kgray yet, though that will wait to be seen.

BB because I'm getting genuine enthusiasm which makes me think he got a role that he likes. I also think he is more likely PR than VT because of that. Lastly, his defense of himself against Bona and his wagon in general sounded like someone who knew they were right, but were hoping to keep their hand back.

As I've mentioned earlier I'm getting weird vibes from ghug. I feel like he believed more in the D1 ND push in M62 than he has believed in any of the pushes the last two games.

The other person I'm keeping an eye on right now is Bunny. His game reminds me more of his M62 performance so far than his M63 one. He's lacking a level of confidence.

That said, I have no one I'm particularly keen on voting out so far so waiting so see where I will put that.

The ND push in M62 was exactly the same as the ND push in M63.

[celaph]

On d1 I actually do think it is better to vote brain than any of three I listed aside from maybe lfischl if he starts posting more. I prefer pressuring bunny or celaph, but if the choice is brain or ezio, I know what I'm choosing.

If you prefer to pressure me then why aren't you doing so? Throw some questions at me.

So, in m62, you were VT. We know what you were like then: serious, down to earth, solvey, etc. In m63, that all felt forced to me since it was more serious and all that stuff, and you were PR. Now, in m64, you have gone the opposite direction, and are now jokey ("+9999999 town points"). What does this indicate?

In defense of myself I've tried to make jokes both of the past games, they've just come off poorly. I take it as a sign that I'm adapting to the medium and the group better.

[ghug]

Regarding the recent Bona conversations, I'm inclined to agree with the Bona town read. For one, I agree that it is really really bold for scum to take such an odd line D1. Partly because for better or worse I imagine that this D1 gets him killed if he goes late. Secondly, because I think Bona's change in style comes from a towny place. Specifically, it seems like he is emulating D1 Chaqa last game, just with a total lack of understanding of the rationale behind the actions.

Ooh but I like this one. I don't really see how it's like Chaqa though.

Chaqa D1 last game pushed really hard against the ND D1 DK because it gave no info. Bona's pushes this game align with that logic at the most basic level, use the daykill for info. It's not like Chaqa in that I think Chaqa had a better understanding of the underlying arguments, but as we've seen with Bona and voting to create ties, that is part of his game that is the weakest.

Chaqa might have the ability to understand underlying arguments, but he chooses not to use it.

[BobMcBob]

Why am I scummy? And don't say it's because you're scared of me or because you think I would have picked scum given the choice.

The second point is legitimate and something you're not ever going to be able to shake, sorry.

The other reason is that I'm not getting solvey vibes yet.

The other other reason is that I dislike your vote on me.

Well you're not convincing me that someone else deserves my vote more, so I haven't changed it yet.

I think you seem irritated this game, which reminds me of your last game, and I'm also not getting solvey vibes from you. It seems more like you're just stirring things up (brain) or going after low-hanging fruit (lfischl).

I've got solvier vibes from kgray so far, or at least good takes vibes. As town she'd be extremely helpful to keep around and I don't see anything that makes me think scum yet. That said, over the last few pages, I've liked her less than I did in her earlier posts. Still definitely townie overall though.

[BobMcBob]

What does this rant have to do with the post it's quoting?

Many things, ghug, many things. He thinks your reason for voting him and staying on him was completely ridiculous and felt unfairly targeted in an unhelpful way, as he clearly said.

He was responding to my explanation of no longer scumreading him as if it was more scumreading.

I feel as though it was because he was angry you scumread him in the first place with little to no reason and that you hadn't moved your vote yet.