Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[bozotheclown]

Put damo on my scum list as well. His maths was at least as bad as bozo's, and he started off the massclaim (or was he second, I can't remember) by claiming vt of all things. Not a good look.

That would be an impressive scum move, which is possible, but it is more likely damo is town.

[bozotheclown]

I am not sure we can consider Macca's votes as confirming Worcej as Town. The dirty scouts did not have a day tent to coordinate. We can say Macca considered Worcej to be Town.

...?

The scum team know who each of their teammates are on D1...

How do you know? There was nothing about that in the setup...

That is a good point, I do not think this was in the setup, but it is a reasonable assumption based on typical games here.

[BobMcBob]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Why not? All 5 are playing anti-town, but 2 of them must me PRs.

Because the odds were garbage, there was very likely at most 1 scum left in that group, and once 2 PRs had claimed it was still almost certain that there was a PR left in that group. Saying "just lynch the other 3" sounds horrible because there is next to no chance that's going to pan out well for town.

[bozotheclown]

I'm just scared of someone with a lot more information than me. You could have town read me, and I'd be just the same.

This was macca thinking he was responding to me. Him confusing me and worcej gives worcej some townie points.

He voted to put Worcej in the lead with six votes, don't see him bussing this way.

I agree that seems unlikely, although we have no history on Macca to determine if he would be willing to bus like that. Also, he could have been monitoring the game to make sure worcej was not going to get lynched.

[BobMcBob]

...?

The scum team know who each of their teammates are on D1...

How do you know? There was nothing about that in the setup...

That is a good point, I do not think this was in the setup, but it is a reasonable assumption based on typical games here.

Squigs forgot a lot of the basic details. He forgot to post the rules, he forgot to say that scum knew their buddies, he forgot to say scumchat was closed during the day apparently. I think most people don't specifically check and go "I wonder if scum know their teammates?" and instead make the pretty safe assumption that the default is true.

[xorxes]

The fast EoD movements also have potential implications:

Either scum was fast-switching to be part of the bus and some of the late movers were scum.

Or they were throwing under a lesser teammate to protect Bozo since scum was going down either way.

What do you make of HR tying the vote in the last minute?

[e.m.c^42]

Huh, was that faked by Bismark or genuine? Although he is slightly new he has been in enough game that it doesn't seem to be as plausible to think that.

[bozotheclown]

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Why not? All 5 are playing anti-town, but 2 of them must me PRs.

Because the odds were garbage, there was very likely at most 1 scum left in that group, and once 2 PRs had claimed it was still almost certain that there was a PR left in that group. Saying "just lynch the other 3" sounds horrible because there is next to no chance that's going to pan out well for town.

I was really just trying to get everyone to claim, but it remains to be seen if lynching the "other 3" was a good idea.

[bozotheclown]

How do you know? There was nothing about that in the setup...

That is a good point, I do not think this was in the setup, but it is a reasonable assumption based on typical games here.

Squigs forgot a lot of the basic details. He forgot to post the rules, he forgot to say that scum knew their buddies, he forgot to say scumchat was closed during the day apparently. I think most people don't specifically check and go "I wonder if scum know their teammates?" and instead make the pretty safe assumption that the default is true.

I agree that it would not be unreasonable to make those assumptions.

[Vecna]

The fast EoD movements also have potential implications:

Either scum was fast-switching to be part of the bus and some of the late movers were scum.

Or they were throwing under a lesser teammate to protect Bozo since scum was going down either way.

What do you make of HR tying the vote in the last minute?

From what i remember of HR he always hated bussing. If he's scum my guess would be he did it to save bozo and push it onto the lesser scum.

The way it went down live, I dont put too much importance on the fact he tied in that very moment since votes came flying in rapidly.

[xorxes]

The fast EoD movements also have potential implications:

Either scum was fast-switching to be part of the bus and some of the late movers were scum.

Or they were throwing under a lesser teammate to protect Bozo since scum was going down either way.

I think it should be fairly obvious I am town based on EOD, especially when Chaqa/Jamie flip scum.

If Chaqa/Jamie flip scum it is indeed likely you are town, because delaying his claim as much as he did, he made it all the more likely that you would be lynched, as no other competing wagon started forming until he claimed. Only worcej was close, but he also had a claim in store so was unlikely to be lynched.

[rdrivera2005]

The fast EoD movements also have potential implications:

Either scum was fast-switching to be part of the bus and some of the late movers were scum.

Or they were throwing under a lesser teammate to protect Bozo since scum was going down either way.

What do you make of HR tying the vote in the last minute?

Unless Bozo is also scum I don't see a reason to scum HR vote Macca at that point. He will be under pressure if he really ties and don't see a reason to buss Macca this way.

[summit_fever]

EMC,

Can you explain your vote for thereal? You expressed desire to vote for him during day 1 but you tried to start the wagon with 1 minute left while the two main wagons were tied.

[Hellenic Riot]

I find it really hard to believe Chaqa was town there, so Jamie has an awful lot of work to do to convince me otherwise.

[Hellenic Riot]

The problem with trying to read into macca's posts is that we have no idea whether he really was confused and not sure what was happening; or if he was putting on a show the entire time. Given the wildly different conclusions we would make depending on that, I'm not even going to try there. We have a very solid lead on the way the wagons formed up and I think that's a far brighter path to head down.

[e.m.c^42]

EMC,

Can you explain your vote for thereal? You expressed desire to vote for him during day 1 but you tried to start the wagon with 1 minute left while the two main wagons were tied.

I didn't really scumread bozo nor wanted to vote for him at the time, and Macca was pleasant enough in recall that I didn't have any particular urge to vote for him either but his death would've been more preferable to bozo's, but Vecna's insistence that bozo was scum made me waffle more so I just avoided having to break the tie and plopped somewhere off wagon for the sake of posterity. Lol

[e.m.c^42]

Poor reasoning? Yeah lmao

[worcej]

...?

The scum team know who each of their teammates are on D1...

How do you know? There was nothing about that in the setup...

That is a good point, I do not think this was in the setup, but it is a reasonable assumption based on typical games here.

As bozo states, it is most common that the scum QT has an intro post indicating who each member is and what their role is so that they can not accidentally kill a teammate on D1.

Some games have not had this information and that was explicitly stated.

[bozotheclown]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

[worcej]

Poor reasoning? Yeah lmao

Yes, it was absolutely terrible move when there was a tie on the table at the time. You needed to pick and decided to distance instead.