WebMafia Olympics - Game #3 - Raygun's Revenge [GAME THREAD]

[ghug]

Tbh no, I don't like this anymore. I don't get why 2 people aren't here eod. But if just one of Jamie or ghug is scum, it's over anyway, so I guess I'll just keep voting rdr.

Rd doesn't give a fuck. I am a little concerned about Kak.

Concerned that he is scum, or concerned in some other way?

Both. I more meant that he's had sudden absences in the past for non-game reasons, and it's odd that he wouldn't be here and invested regardless of his alignment.

[ghug]

Lil excellent crosspost.

I am feeling anxious personally but I think it's the right call.

What about you, Flum?

I'd be interested to know if you both would be willing to switch to Kak.

The way Kak resisted the Sweet hammer and then did it anyway looked weird to me as I pointed out before.

Agreed

[ghug]

Ok, I gotta go. Good luck, guys.

[Fluminator]

Welp, I'm just going to sit here with 2 votes on me a little longer lol.
Jamie my friend, did I ever apologize for shooting you as a vig that one game.

[Jamiet99uk]

Welp, I'm just going to sit here with 2 votes on me a little longer lol.
Jamie my friend, did I ever apologize for shooting you as a vig that one game.

I believe you did, yes.

It was a bad move but it was a while ago; no hard feelings.

[Fluminator]

Great, that means you're not just going to switch votes last minute and kill me as revenge right?

[Jamiet99uk]

Great, that means you're not just going to switch votes last minute and kill me as revenge right?

It would be against the ethics of the game to vote you for "revenge" if I did not think you were scum. I would define that as a clear example of metagaming which should be considered against the rules.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok that's interesting. Is it actually just Kak/Rdr.

I just deleted a post where I go over partner combos because it's too hard to get anything from Kak's posts since they're constantly changing his opinions making it that he could be partners with anyone.

I don't expect Jamie or Ghug to bus Rdr at this point though unless they want to do a last minute vote switch, but that's risky for them because Kak changes his mind a lot.

@Rdr, I'm not necessarily locked in on voting you and I'm town so if you're town mafia are coasting right now. I still don't understand anything about your perspective. You say that hammering you made more sense than hammering sweet and I don't understand why that makes it better. Can you expand on that?

Well of you are town Mafia just won as I can't see another wagon forming. I hope you have said you weren't lock on me before as I might have stayed on Ghug.

Anyway, just to answer you, I can understand speed hammering someone to avoid Mafia killing so hammering me would make sense. Sweet have chances to enter a kill before he was hammered so I don't see why the hammer on him was a good move.

[Jamiet99uk]

This is a DEAD thread considering phase ends in five minutes.

Where are RDR and Kak?

[Jamiet99uk]

Rdr if you are town would you vote for Kak here?

[rdrivera2005]

So, unless Jamiet change his mind or you both agree to vote on Ghug or Kak it's game over.

[Fluminator]

Well it's probably too late now. I hope you and Kak are scumpartners or we're about to lose.

[Jamiet99uk]

So, unless Jamiet change his mind or you both agree to vote on Ghug or Kak it's game over.

Yeah I don't feel a strong case to vote Flum but I could vote for Kak, or Ghug.

But 3 minutes are left.

[rdrivera2005]

Rdr if you are town would you vote for Kak here?

I would vote anyone as if I am killed it's game over.

[rdrivera2005]

But I really doubt Flum would risk a sure win.

[Jamiet99uk]

Flum are you still on? Do you want to vote for Kak after all?

[Fluminator]

If we try to switch now, ghug would have to be scum for that to work. I think it's still more likely you are.
I just worry it's Jamie/Kak.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok it's too late now there's 60 seconds left.

Fingers crossed.

[Kakarroto]

My view of the game is currently this:

town >> Jamie >> ghug = RD > Flum >> mafia

I'm not as sold on Flum being mafia as I showed, but I think he has the highest chance of being mafia. I'm also not fully convinced Jamie is town, I got some vibes that he was buddying me. But I think he has the highest chance of being town of the four.

I'm not sure about ghug and RD, I think ghug has a strange overconfidence in that 'optimal play', and totally overlooks or ignores the possibility of mafia to just not play optimally. He also ignores the fact, that the setup for this was posted like one hour before the game started, and not everyone dedicated intricate time to analyse it. He might make some good logical points, but he lacks that ... I don't know how to describe it, but it gives me a very bad feeling. Whereas RD might be away a lot, and hasn't posted a lot, but he doesn't give me that feeling. Ghug also feels pushy and somewhat dismissing, and doesn't seem to see the point I'm making about holding the shots and negated information. But I'm not sure if I'm just not understanding ghug correctly here and he is town.

So, I stood back today, to see what people would do, if Flum would finally vote someone. It was 2 ghug, 1 RD and 1 on himself. He chose RD at the time, which caused RD to change, letting the ghug wagon die. So it was 2-2 between Flum and RD, and Jamie came in and changed from ghug and voted RD, making the day between flum and RD.

If the maf-team is jamie and ghug, which was proposed by some players before, but I doubt, then they did a great job of blending in, I wouldn't vote Jamie today, and the chance for voting ghug is gone. I think we just lost if that's the reality, so no sense to think about that, as I don't believe I have the ability to make RD and Flum change their vote there. And even I think this is the lowest chance team. This is just a gg wp, go next.

If the team is Jamie-flum, I was wrong about Jamie and lulled in, but I'll put it on ghug for not realizing that mafia can ignore a 'good situation' and play for the long game, where they have truly perfect chances. If town?ghug stays on RD and not change his mind that is.

If it's Jamie-RD, then Jamie is currently bussing. He might go for the fast win and change last second, but I try to counter that and will, if the situation didn't change, vote RD at the last second.

If we have ghug-RD, then the same applies; be ready for a last second switch onto town?flum. In both cases it is probable, that RD was the shooter today, which works out timewise. That means that the surviving mafia still has the bullet.

If it's ghug-flum, Jamie decided wrong at the end. I'm a bit sad if he didn't vote flum because he didn't trust me enough, and I might've convinced him more about my hunch, but I am not 100% sure of it myself. Maybe I should've joined Jamie earlier on ghug in this case, but I'm also waffling between ghug and RD being flum's partner.

If we have a flum-RD team, we are doing great, and just have to vote one out, preferable the one with the bullet, but it doesn't really matter. I still plan to change to RD in that case, just in case there might be a change and a tie.

Due to this, if we don't just lose voting town?RD out today, I propose to vote a no-kill and hammer tomorrow, to be either sure that the bullet will be used the next day to avoid any bullet to go into a 1-1 situation, or to confirm that there is no bullet left. I would go even so far to offer me as the vote target, after we hammered a no-kill and no bullet flew that same day, when we are at 3-1. If a bullet was used, and I'm alive at 2-1, I would also stand up as the vote, with the condition, that the surviving town HAS TO TOTALLY UNDERSTAND that he has to vote faster than the surviving mafia (who is now bulletless).

We just have to avoid the bullet going into a 1-1, or the bullet being shot while not both town vote mafia at 2-1 faster than mafia voted any of the surviving town.

So in my suggestion to proceed, the steps are:
-) at 3-1, vote no-kill and hammer the day (if the bullet flies when it's 3-1, this step can be skipped)
-) at 2-1 with no bullet alive, try to find the other town, it doesn't fully matter, just be aware that the mafia does not be allowed to vote first.
-) if guessed wrong, be ready BEFORE the the GM post, have a new reply open with the vote and submit the post with the vote for the other surviving person, and hit that button as fast as you can see worcej posting.
-) I know, at this point it's practically a 50-50 on who is faster, but I don't think I'll be alive this long to make that decision, so be prepared for that. Good luck for whoever you are. Just be aware of the tie-rules, and as soon as you vote the mafia, don't move away. o7

##vote rdrivera2005

So, this last part is just some typing to hide the vote, I mean, I plan to post it about the phase change, and will use time.is for it, to get the second correct, but I'm a bit afraid that this post is so long that it might hangs itself up again a bit and it takes a few seconds to proceed. So maybe I'll try to post it about 5 seconds before EoD, just to be sure. We might not get a last second change if bussing mafia changes to Flum to make a quick victory, but it should be close enough.

And I don't think that, if we have two maf voting RD and one town, for that town to change his vote at the last second.

Ah, and on a personal matter, I also needed some time off, just because playing that much, that intensive, just wasn't good for me. I didn't fully vanish (just made it appear so that mafia might be baited to switch for the fast win if we have that scenario) and had a look at it from time to time in the last two days, but I wanted to see what happened, and I wanted to get some distance for myself. Like I said, I had headaches, AND my stomach feels still a bit weird. Feel better now though, so please don't worry too much, I'll have a look out for me. Let it be known, for the next game, that I won't do as much time/effort investment as in this or the last game. Well, at least I plan to take a little bit off of it.

One more thought nearing EoD: mafia hadn't had chance to talk in a night chat, so both coordinating the voting plus coordinating who they sus is not as effective, so voting together here isn't as easy, I think? But I don't know.

Also, if I mess(ed) things up, I'm sorry.

[worcej]

Day has ended. Please Hold.