Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[et]

I need time to catch up last post.
But I get some questions, I am going to answer.

page 31:
@balki
That's not smarmy, that's "not loading accusations into your questions." And anyway, since when does smarmy = scummy?

@fox
I wasn't trying to impute anything to you good/bad/otherwise. I was moving to a non-Chippe conversation.


@et -
Thank you! Good insight about Neph. What do you mean by saying that you think bozo would react you?

page 32:

%%vote TrPrado
I'll probably end up changing!

Okay so flav flav flav. that's now how this works. why even vote at all right now if you're not going to talk at prado, and you're going to change the vote anyway?

Why are you and squigs both doing gut-reaction "pings" ?

Because one dude Squig knows did that and it was pretty accurate, its a good place to start on Day 1 imo

Okay but why you? Have you met the dude squigs knows?

Tell us what specific posts lead you to your dual conclusions that (a) Balki is smart/experienced and (b) Balki is scum because he is asking questions and commenting without providing anything.

fwiw, he did the same thing to me as town last game.

Can someone give me a Cliffs Notes summary of "what happened last game" that is important for this game? Something, something, Moscow lurked and was scum...teacon did what? Anything else pertinent? I take it that town lost?

I talked a lot. ND played lightning rod and got a lot of attention by acting like a clown to generate reactions. I talked more and xorx and I ended up in a massive game-killing TvT fight. Flav(also, somehow, town) subbed in sometimes after d1 and scumread me right out of the gate, parroting xorx' arguments and generally ignoring my posts. Things like flav: "oh teacon isn't doing X" ::teacon posts quote of him doing exactly X four pages ago:: "flav: teacon isn't doing X!!1" Town ended up losing the game in lylo to emc/moscow, because we voted for scummier than scum flav.



page 34


this doesn't feel like scum damo that I knew last game.

@damo - moscow lurks like this as town too. Then as scum last game. I looked at old games on the bot ot figure that out. After last game, it's NAI because he lurked to victory so well.

Also of note from last game: at the very end during lylo, we almost solved it, but we voted Flavius because he became super defensive and accusatory. Not giving Flavius a free pass, but he is rather new to Forum Mafia.

Yes. See my comment pages ago to xorx about flav's play.


page 35

I have a gut feeling Fox is scum. Last game it worked with Damo.

i have this feeling too. Not enough to go on yet.


page 36

It seems teacon and Xorxes have learnt a lesson.

also this game is already too massive for me to keep up. I do have a full time job. :/

Hello this is my first post and we already have some 30ish pages XD

yeah he's town

I suppose I'll abstain from the vote

no wait he's scum.

@cru Really? Skim the thread and let us know what you think. You have a responsibility here. Are you in support of lynching lurkers d1?



page 37

I mean, he should of known what he was signing up into. Since he's a new player, I really don't think his vote would be super helpful to town one way or another since he's more likely to lynch someone that everybody else is all worked up about lynching - he's most likely going to exhibit herding behavior when making his vote. That does nothing for town - about as much as a No-Lynch does.

So...in this post, ChippeRock assumes that CruaaderReynauld is Town.

Balki has a decent point here. What if Cru is scum? He shouldn't get away with not-voting (even if it were legal).


---

@Carl you makes a good point about reading and skimming and not comitting. fwiw, I'm doing that too, so add me to your list. I agree in principle, though I think this game it's moderated by the sheer size.


---

I think teacon is Mafia, annoyingly I'm finding this hard to justify, but discounting Chippe's actions as scum, and eagerness to lynch lurkers are hard for me to ignore. So I am going to have to respectfully &&VOTE teacon7

oddly, I townread you for this.

fwiw, I never said I was interested in policying lurkers. I asked others what they thought.

----



page 38

Does anyone have any initial suspicions on who the Blind Assassin?
(I don't)

yeah townleaning this guy

---

Everyone else assumes that "the noobs in the game were town"? Who does that? I don't. I have never seen that assumption before. Why would anyone assume that? Why do you assume that?

Why do you keep bringing up Connor? I don't see what that has to do at all with Cruaader.

Correlation does not mean causation. I don't think he was implying that they were town read because they were noobs, but that the globe in this game were all coincidentally town read.

It's worth noting htat we'll tend to give out n00b passes because we don't have much else to go on, and newbie town tends to look weird. Imo you still have to look for motivations behind posts. You can townread newbies, but not because they're newbies.


---

Cool, like twenty pages to read (I'm on pg 22 btw rofl) will catch up soon ya fucks geez.

I feel your pain. But I just got done with pg 39 so... woo. See you when you get here.

Because boz was inactive, I thought boz won't react my vote.

[ChippeRock]

Well i am going to bed. All I have left to say is good god WOW.

Agreed. Experienced players just don't lurk and suddenly try lynching someone with faulty logic.

One last thing. I posted thoughts after I caught up. I work all day. I have a job and it's end of semester grading. Sorry I can't sit around and jack off on the thread all day like you. Fuck off and stop being salty I proved your fucking defense was bunk. Grow a pair and get out of your salty shitty little tunnel.

Good night

It's adorable that you think I've specifically focused on you this entire game. Let's just ignore the other people I've called out and scumread... I didn't even start focusing on you until Page 46 lol.

[Squigs44]

Okay did a teacon re-read. Didn't see anything that stood out to me as strongly AI, but overall his tone seemed more townie, so townlean on him. Mostly he just seems like he is posting without an agenda, and there were a few things that when I read I thought "wow that was pure"

@teacon your thoughts are very spread out, can you give a more concise and updated take on your top scum/town reads before EoD?

[ChippeRock]

Agreed. Experienced players just don't lurk and suddenly try lynching someone with faulty logic.

One last thing. I posted thoughts after I caught up. I work all day. I have a job and it's end of semester grading. Sorry I can't sit around and jack off on the thread all day like you. Fuck off and stop being salty I proved your fucking defense was bunk. Grow a pair and get out of your salty shitty little tunnel.

Good night

It's adorable that you think I've specifically focused on you this entire game. Let's just ignore the other people I've called out and scumread... I didn't even start focusing on you until Page 46 lol.

Newsflash! You're not that special bud!

[CruaaderReynauld]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

[ChippeRock]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

That's a fair point. But your vote is going nowhere. Just try tying the vote if you're so against D1 lynching.

While town does, more often than now, tend to get lynched more D1. When scum gets lynched D1, it's a huge advantage to town. I think it all balances out in the end. The risk is worth the reward.

[CruaaderReynauld]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

That's a fair point. But your vote is going nowhere. Just try tying the vote if you're so against D1 lynching.

While town does, more often than now, tend to get lynched more D1. When scum gets lynched D1, it's a huge advantage to town. I think it all balances out in the end. The risk is worth the reward.

Tbh I'm not sure what the vote status is, as I'm only on page 17 but I'll probably find out soon.

[ChippeRock]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

That's a fair point. But your vote is going nowhere. Just try tying the vote if you're so against D1 lynching.

While town does, more often than now, tend to get lynched more D1. When scum gets lynched D1, it's a huge advantage to town. I think it all balances out in the end. The risk is worth the reward.

Tbh I'm not sure what the vote status is, as I'm only on page 17 but I'll probably find out soon.

Here's the live (sort of) vote count: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/game_status?g=46

[Squigs44]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

[Durga]

D1 lynching hurts town? Uhm no.

[CruaaderReynauld]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

[Carl Tuckerson]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

But the odds of hitting town are always higher than hitting non town on every lynch.
If we are waiting until we’re more likely to hit mafia than town we just lose.

Each game has a finite number of kills before it ends. Kills are the main resource of the game and they are zero sum. It’s best for town to be killing as often as possible because that maximizes the number of kills that potentially can hit mafia.

[Squigs44]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

Oh - are we randomly lynching? Let me go get my dice then, brb

[ChippeRock]

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

Oh - are we randomly lynching? Let me go get my dice then, brb

Yes, D1 lynching is effectively a coin flip.

[connorcompton]

@percy
@connor

You've both mentioned the blind assassin. What's the worth of trying to figure out who that is right now? Seems to me like there'd be really little to go on, as 3rd party psych would play pretty conservative early on so as to survive to the late game.

Very little. Ok.

[Durga]

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

But the odds of hitting town are always higher than hitting non town on every lynch.
If we are waiting until we’re more likely to hit mafia than town we just lose.

Each game has a finite number of kills before it ends. Kills are the main resource of the game and they are zero sum. It’s best for town to be killing as often as possible because that maximizes the number of kills that potentially can hit mafia.

I'm so happy that at least one of the new players is sensible.

[et]

Answer for Trp

So do you think Nep is scum?
I think, slight scummy. Because he catch up thread obviously, but not inactive.
That seems to be defensive move for me.
But honestly, I think I won't vote him today.
As you notice, I prior to lynch lurkers.

Who else do you think might be?
I don't yet read all posts for now, but I think boz.
Bcause I don't understand his explanation of vote for Chip.
I think just he voted a person about to be lynch and encouraged other players to do same.
And I think, Car, Chip, teacon, Percy are town.

Why do you come to so many people's defense?
Firstly, about Chip.
I thought the conversation, among Chip and some players about Cheating or not,
is not useful to find scums. So I tried to stop.
Nextly, about Percy.
I thought boz might be scum.
(And I thought Percy might be town because of same thought.)
So, I don't want to players stop focus boz.

Why are lurkers higher priority in terms of lynching?
In my thought, if many players vote active players(like Sq and Balki),
scums(and maybe some towns) just keep silence for defend themselves.
Towns can get few information and hard to win game.

And I said I never really had fake claims when I draw town(civilian)
(For example VT claiming 'I am cop'.).
When I draw goon(wolf), I say 'I am town(civilian)!' Lol.

[Percy Williams]

No chance he is scum fishing for town PRs? Any reason you are sure of that?

Approximately what I had written:
A lot of people were angry with chipperock before the game even started, and even without knowing the history or any details, I can tell that some players would be glad of any excuse to lynch him.It would be almost suicidal to do as Scum. Unless he is a master of Wifom, I just find this play as scum to be extremely unlikely.

That does not explain why you think him being Blind Assassin is more likely than him being any other scum.

Because the mafia would just know he's in the not scum pile, so would assume 1or2, and I think third party invites crazy actions. Ex: EMC claiming Alien Cop as the Alien.
Number three is the least likely listed, but I wanted to be thorough, and not forget about the third party.

[Percy Williams]

Vote comes back if you don't finish that breakdown OR you do finish it but you fail to call me handsome or charismatic.

This is bribery and blackmail

You say this as though it is a problem

[et]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

Is that massage for me?
I think, I don't ask you any question.