Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[sweetandcool]

Literally, encouraging my personal Townread Bunny to pretend Clerk.

Hey Bunny, I called it D1. We're buddy cops!

Looks like you are bad cop and I am good cop.

(No, the phrasing happens to line up, definitely not softing anything for either of us).

[sweetandcool]

I would not have pushed so hard for my survival if I was just a VT. It was quite looney toons we couldn't consolidate on Dip or Vecna.

Just a reminder, scum is currently pushing hard to DK Town sweetandcool.

Would very much appreciate if y'all would consolidate soonish.

[sweetandcool]

The beginning of my paranoia that Bona is actually Mafia. Leading to my next night scan.

Just a reminder, scum is currently pushing hard to DK Town sweetandcool.

Would very much appreciate if y'all would consolidate soonish.

Who is voting for you that you think is mafia?

Vecna and rdr.

Starting to think there is a chance Bona is actually just coasting by only tunneling me.

Like, I still assess Bona as Town D1, but if he managed to fool us all then his following play is super scummy because his ONLY contribution so far is to lazily tunnel me.

[sweetandcool]

During N4 I realize that if I claim, lose a CC battle (last game convinced me that was likely), and one of my scans was Miller, that we would auto lose.

I needed Town to listen to me.

I thought since the bot was down I could lie about seeing crumbs, since it would be extremely difficult for others to verify.

Just my luck, I find out the bot is up after I said I had big news.

I decided to try my plan anyways, though was prepared to actually claim if things went wrong.

Luckily, Bunny ran some subterfuge and Balki caught Mafia's attention for reasons I still haven't actually thoroughly analyzed.

[sweetandcool]

N4 scanned Bona Town. I felt like I was too obvious here so I threw in an insult that I hope wasn't too mean. "I know you are Town"

##vote sweet

Dude, I know you are Town but can you stop being so lazy?

Serious LVP effort going on.

[sweetandcool]

Here I started to try to pretend Bona was Clerk and I was Miller. Had to be really subtle obviously since I wanted Mafia to think it was a slip.

That did not happen, did it?

Therefore by your own theory, Sweet is not Mafia.

So, why are you voting for Sweet?

that's assuming scum!sweet actually found a cop's crumbs. as outlined, i don't think scum!sweet (or scum!anyone) knowingly lets a cop live any longer than possible. i also don't believe town!sweet would take it upon himself to out a copscan instead of sitting on it and trusting the cop

Like the first part, don't like the last part.

Would love it if you managed to untunnel.

[sweetandcool]

Bozo, I know you are certain I am scum, but you really need to untunnel. You are wasting your time on a fellow Townie.

Here I was roleplaying as trying to obfuscate the fact that in that last quoted post I was trying to communicate I was Miller to Bona.

So I pretended the same thing with Bozo.

Afterwards I felt a little bad because it made it look like I possibly Town scanned Bozo.

[sweetandcool]

Literally put in parenthesis and other places info based on my scans.

N1: brainbomb, "RB" Jamiet/ghug
N2: ghug, No RB
N3: damo, RB Sparta
N4: Sparta, RB Bunny

I choose to believe Jamiet was RB by brainbomb, ghug by Mafia. Obviously there is some chance that Jamiet is lying Mafia, but that type of tinfoiling should probably be reserved for F3 if we even make it to that point.

Now, N2 they decide to kill ghug and reserve RB. Mafia would be crazy to not hunt for Clerk, so for some reason, after ghug was RB, they decide he is likely Clerk. This implies that they either saw absolutely nothing in thread suggesting a scan, implying the Clerk was RB and was either ghug or Jamiet.

Hmmmm, so would that imply that ghug's reads were great and Jamiet's were "bad"? And after ghug flipped VT, why did they abandon the plan to continue on by flipping Jamiet? I suppose the answer would probably be that damo made for a convincing Clerk D3.

Okay, then why did Mafia not return to flipping Jamiet N4? I suppose by then Jamiet's contributions must have convinced them he wasn't Clerk. So why RB Sparta N3? And does the NK of Sparta again imply Mafia couldn't find any scan crumbs and so just hoped their RB hit Clerk?

Unfortunately, the loss of the bot for D4/N4 could explain things. Scum would be unlikely to find anything without the bot, unless they found it in the moment. Probably they just NK Sparta because they didn't have a better idea.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Helpful questions that should be answered:

1. How likely was it that ghug hit 2+ Mafia in his reads D2? Or managed to put out a (completely?) accurate Town list?

2. Who did Jamiet wrongly scum/town during D2?

3. Sparta must have displayed enough accuracy in their reads that Mafia thought there was a reasonable chance he was Clerk. What were those reads?

4. ???
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANSWERS:

1. ghug Towns Food, Jamiet, Bunny early on, which is 3/3 correct. He also correctly Towns Sparta. He jabs Bozo with a light scumread (incorrect?!). Correctly Towns Bona. Scums Ham (50/50) and rdr (Correct). Supports Sparta's probably 100% correct meta analysis on Will. Pumps out a reads lists that probably 100% correctly places many players into the Town list (except Vecna unless Vecna happens to be Miller). Last notable thing is he strongly protests the Vecna wagon.

2. Jamiet Towns Bona (correctly). Incorrectly scums sweetandcool. Incorrectly scums LoW. Incorrectly scumreads damo. Correctly townreads ghug and Townreads Balki (50/50). Light scumread of Bozo (incorrect?!) and then a scumread of rdr (correct) that comes from absolutely nowhere (so I don't think Mafia would take it seriously one way or another).

Comparing Jamiet and ghug's D2 is like day and night. ghug displayed definite undeniable accuracy, and probably accuracy for certain players who have yet to flip. Jamiet didn't demonstrate very many reads D2, but his focus was heavily on incorrect scumreads (I sympathize here, just reading it again I still can't figure out how LoW wasn't Mafia).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Given all of this information (plus the crumbs I saw from the Clerk), there seems to be some sort of case for Vecna being Miller.

ghug positively nails 6 Town reads. If Vecna is Miller then 7. If Pirate is Town (which I think) then 8! The remaining 6 players in his Null to Scum range include dead worcej and Town Bona.

So our scumpool is Vecna, Bozo, rdr, Ham, Balki. And maybe a tiny chance ghug was wrong about Pirate. 3 Mafia, 5 slots.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Okay this post has gotten too long. Investigating question #3 in my next post.

[sweetandcool]

@Sweet:

Question: You have declared several of my D2 reads to be correct or incorrect. Some of those people are still alive. So by "correct" you just mean "corresponding to my (Sweet's) own reads", yes?

Observation: You have used your analysis here to arrive at a scum PoE. But you earlier said you were aware of a second copscan guilty, in addition to Vecna. I assume that person is included in the pool, but that you are deliberately faking a portion of your analysis to protect the Cop.

This was a great post. I lied by pretending what you said here was true.

[sweetandcool]

Getting tired of D5, so onto D6.

[sweetandcool]

So I scanned Balki, the Miller.

At that point, I thought it was too risky not to claim. I was stunned when the NK/RB only contained Bunny and not both of us.

However, Balki took up the mantle with a correct Mafia scan on Dip.

This was an incredibly tough day, because while I eventually deduced it was incredibly likely Balki was Miller, I still had to crumb my scan somehow, and make sure it wouldn't be assumed that because I didn't CC him that I approved of his Pirate scan.

[sweetandcool]

I really struggled to find a way to crumb. This is why I was uncommital about Balki for a lot of the day. I almost blew the charade due to the fear of my scans being misinterpreted after I flipped, which I thought possible even with Balki's help.

[sweetandcool]

And so begins a session of Jamiet expertly PR hunting. Yes, it was a small psychological slip.

Luckily I think I managed to escape looking less likely to be Clerk.

Bona hasn't posted yet, so you never know.

I don't.

But you claim that you do know. And Balki has endorsed your version of events.

So this is a weird correction. No?

If you say so. We are all waiting to see if a CC occurs. I have pointed out that one player has not posted yet and consequently we do not know if he will CC.

[sweetandcool]

But now you know why I specifically resisted saying that Balki was Clerk, because then I couldn't really back out of allowing Balki to continue the play.

[sweetandcool]

Aligned "Miller" under "Balki" twice. Also "Mafia" over "Balki" once.

Balki what is your opinion on Dip?
Miller Dip, or Mafia Dip?

Personally I don't think Dip is Miller. I've already scumread him previously, and the Mafia datapoints I have are pretty compelling to me.

1. Balki returned Mafia after scanning Dip.

2. Dip was able to assess the situation incredibly quickly when he subbed in, and rather than at least initially assuming that voting Ham made sense (due to Ham's fake claim), Dip was able to go against "common sense" rather quickly. This makes sense if Dip was filling out a Mafia slot. It is much less plausible if Dip was filling a Town slot.

3. Dip's emotional outburst towards me felt incredibly fake (forgive me if I am wrong and you are Miller). Start reading Dip around page 132, and it just comes across as Scum putting on an act of lashing out at their detractors. And randomly trying to buddy Jamiet.

4. rdr, Dip's predecessor was oddly Buddy friendly with sweetandcool, which was unprecedented and just a bit odd.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miller Dip seems to be an impossibility. He MUST be Mafia, that's conclusive.
Balki, do you agree with my analysis?

Another datapoint I noticed is that Dip seemed to be mildly anti-Bozo. This could of course be distancing, but I'm more inclined to award some Townpoints to Bozo. So maybe you are correct about Bozo.

[sweetandcool]

Definitively washing my hands of Balki's Town scan on Pirate.

Yeah, I think Ham has to be final Mafia, he fits the profile I would expect of this team, consisting of lower posting more lurky types and/or newer players.

It's fortunate that Balki scanned Pirate as Town or I would be suffering from paranoia since he is the only other player that really fits the mental profile I have of the scum team.

[sweetandcool]

I'm not going to cover D7, but I continuously insisted Bona was Town and speculated that he was Clerk.

Other than the MK on Ham, I think I misplayed that day because I thought it was virtually guaranteed that Bona and I were going to be hit by NK/RB.

In hindsight, I should have considered taking my strongest read, Jamiet, and insisting he was Town, etc.

The big risk though is if I was wrong people would assume I scanned him, and that was just too egotistical of a thing to do, to make a fake scan in that situation.

[sweetandcool]

And that leads us to D8. Where I had no hope of a scan getting through.

I chose Pirate because I figured the only way a scan would get through is if Pirate was Mafia and missplayed or someone exceedingly clever would allow it, which would have (in my mind) implicated Jamiet trying to frame Bozo.

[sweetandcool]

Finished

[Jamiet99uk]

##Unend