M1025 Game Thread

[brainbomb]

I bet one of them is scum.

Oh no.
this isnt good.

this isnt good at all. gonna need a moment here but, this basically makes it seem like its just chaqa-jamie as the last two scum. especially given what else is happening on this page right now.

huh...

why...? Because Jamie is saying 1 but not both, and is right about at least 1?

No I think scum Jamie is naming both teammates and thinking how hilarious it is to do so openly.

[Bonatogether]

##vote Flum

I can’t square a POE that doesn’t include Flum.

Possible deep threats are chaqa and brain.

But Damo, pyxxy, bona, Jamie (?…?…maybe a threat)

All look good.

Still need to reread the EOD 2. I remember a lot of interesting talking about ghug and counter wagons that wasn’t recorded in votes. But need to reread still.

how can you say i look good and then spend hours and hours voting me?

[damo666]

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

If you "arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5%" to there being 2 bussers, what probability did you arbitrarily assign to there being 1 busser?

1-Pr(2)-Pr(0)

Only 2 bussers is arbitrary.

[BunnyGo]

okay bona, you can be town
bunny you can also be town

flum ehhhh idk here
jamie leaning scum
chaqa is dropping now, and im gonna reconsider.

bozo is still just town
damo is looking town


so thats
bozo
bunny
damo
--------
chaqa
bona
flum
jamie

why am I above the line and bona below? Why is bozo town now in your eyes? Why is chaqa/jamie dropping? Can you explain?

[damo666]

damo is wrong again

In what way pray tell. This ain't helpful.

[brainbomb]

we dont have to push chaqa today because his lack of dying will eventually catch up to him. so he needs a scum buddy well locked even deeper than himself and the way hes playing is that is seems like hes stashing Jamie as far back in the POE as he can.

it makes strategic sense. because chaqa if scum knows eventually people are gonna ask why hes alive, and Jamie can get to be the first one to eventually say it. and earn the cred at the right time.

or they just have enough miskills lined up that scum can keep aiming for doc shots to justify chaqa never dying.

[Bonatogether]

You don’t do your catchup first?

no i skim discord for things and then i go read the thread

What did you mean by checking discord?

this feels self-evident

[BunnyGo]

##vote Flum

I can’t square a POE that doesn’t include Flum.

Possible deep threats are chaqa and brain.

But Damo, pyxxy, bona, Jamie (?…?…maybe a threat)

All look good.

Still need to reread the EOD 2. I remember a lot of interesting talking about ghug and counter wagons that wasn’t recorded in votes. But need to reread still.

how can you say i look good and then spend hours and hours voting me?

Yeah...I'm spinning here a bit.

[brainbomb]

okay bona, you can be town
bunny you can also be town

flum ehhhh idk here
jamie leaning scum
chaqa is dropping now, and im gonna reconsider.

bozo is still just town
damo is looking town


so thats
bozo
bunny
damo
--------
chaqa
bona
flum
jamie

why am I above the line and bona below? Why is bozo town now in your eyes? Why is chaqa/jamie dropping? Can you explain?

well youre displaying nervous energy and its not something I see you do as scum.
I also just realized I didnt even list pyxxy but pyx is up top also.

bozo has been town for me for a long time now. this isnt new.

chaqa and jamie are dropping because I think they are teamed possibly.

[brainbomb]

okay well if its chaqa-jamie this is gonna be quite a bloody game. I really dont know if anyone else even understands why I maybe came to this idea

[Bonatogether]

Are you summarizing Chaqa's position or making this conclusion?

Mine but doesn't apply if Bunny is scum.

In fact to me Bunny scum townclears Flum.

Following this logic there must be exactly one scum in {Bunny, Flum}. We should vote from these two.

damo!damo is town

[BunnyGo]

<snip>

@bozo: did you think ghug was scum at the time or not?

<snip>


Conclusions: bozo looks bad here on reread, but not horrible. damo probably town, brain probably town.

@bozo: see above in red.

[BunnyGo]

okay well if its chaqa-jamie this is gonna be quite a bloody game. I really dont know if anyone else even understands why I maybe came to this idea

I'm asking you to explain....

I'll say that in some earlier posts today I mentioned them and you as my concerns for deep threats.

[Chaqa]

could chaqa really do this? would he really do this? would they?

what the fuck.

I won't say I couldn't, but I'm not.

[Bonatogether]

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

where are these numbers coming from and what do they mean?

[Chaqa]

we dont have to push chaqa today because his lack of dying will eventually catch up to him. so he needs a scum buddy well locked even deeper than himself and the way hes playing is that is seems like hes stashing Jamie as far back in the POE as he can.

it makes strategic sense. because chaqa if scum knows eventually people are gonna ask why hes alive, and Jamie can get to be the first one to eventually say it. and earn the cred at the right time.

or they just have enough miskills lined up that scum can keep aiming for doc shots to justify chaqa never dying.

The latter is what I think is happening.

[Bonatogether]

rereading bona currently and now I see why people are thinking the pyxxy thing is unusual. he seems like he was trolling there and it went awry so he tries to make it seem like he misunderstood who died.

either way bona hard sells the idea that he is very far removed from paying attention to the game which is something he also did last game with his fake catchup posts. I wonder if maybe this is a little more sinister than that however

i was town and that was not a fake catchup

[Bonatogether]

i don't understand why people continue to insist that that catchup was fake when i flipped town

[Bonatogether]

rereading bona currently and now I see why people are thinking the pyxxy thing is unusual. he seems like he was trolling there and it went awry so he tries to make it seem like he misunderstood who died.

either way bona hard sells the idea that he is very far removed from paying attention to the game which is something he also did last game with his fake catchup posts. I wonder if maybe this is a little more sinister than that however

Do you believe his real life excuses are real?

Do you believe that it's possible he'd pull that specific stunt as a scummate with pyxxy?

'do you believe his real life excuses are real'

this question ticks me off so much. i don't bullshit about real life things, and i never have, i've never implied it and i've never said that i thought anyone else was. what do you want? receipts of my schedule? what the fuck am i supposed to say to this

[Chaqa]

Today should be like Bona v. Flum v. Damo or somethin