My turn!
Forum Bonanza
Classic Variant
Random - Italy! (Cancels will result in me choosing this country again to maintain the preselected map dynamic).
Disclaimer - I apologize in advance for Fall/Autumn switches, I learned to play calling it Fall when I was younger, and still do so even today. I will change my habits I swear!
I will play the first few years out to see that the game isn't going to be a whitewash (Have had games where Austria just throws himself away with poor move choices, and you're staring down a +3 Russia and +2 Turkey in Spring 1902 with +1 build, and an army in Tunis. Notes for my own cancels. Builds 1903 is the last phase where I will cancel a game. This is mainly because the AI's have no perception of changing targets even if they make no progress, and especially as Turkey, but possible with any country, a deadlock can occur just because the AI will not change targets, movements, or direction regardless of board dynamic. I will briefly describe games I had to cancel with the reason for why it was doomed below:
Take 1: Austria lost Budapest, didn't take Greece, and France went +3, built 2 fleets, and took GoL and WM on Spr 1902, so yeah... That was a GG.
Take 2: Here we are.
Spring Movements: 1901
Thoughts - I try to always start friendly to Austria, as it is very rare that opening aggressive towards them actually benefits me, and on the off chance that France or Germany does the Piedmont/Tyrolia/Silesia thing, then I would be a lot of trouble. Seeing how Turkey and Russia open up will provide me with more opportunities in the coming phases, but I see no advantage to opening hyper aggressive on a gamble. That being said, I do think Ven - Tri - Albania can work, because it can be super strong if Germany/France don't immediately lunge for Venice. Take 1 I did the normal moves, so I'll try for the aggressive take here. Some issues, Trieste H, or Trieste - Venice, or Vienna - Venice cancel this out, and probably just kill the hope right off the start. This really relies on Vienna - Galicia on this phase, and with even better chance, that Turkey goes for Armenia. But that’s the gamble! :)
Ven - Tri
Rom - Apu
Nap - Ion
Autumn Movements: 1902
France - Mid Atlantic Ocean - Spain - Burgundy
Not ideal here unless Spain holds. Mid Atlantic Ocean - Spain SC is a typical launching pad for coming straight for me with F-Marseilles in the build phase.
England - Yorkshire - North Sea - Norwegian Sea
There is no guessing what he does here. We could see convoy to Norway with Norwegian Sea - Barents Sea. Yorkshire - Belgium, Yorkshire - Holland
Germany - Please bounce in Sweden.. :)
Austria - Bounced Galicia, which is good. Should still take Greece via self support, and he will move to Trieste with Vienna, so the initial plan is working, it’s the following year when Venice is empty that the faith has to work.
Turkey/Russia - All standard, though having F-Aegean Sea is bad after this phase for us, but with A-Albania, we actually look okay.
APU - TUN
ION C APU - TUN
TRI - ALB
Builds: 1902
France - Takes Portugal with Mid Atlantic Ocean.. That’s a great sign, as well as going for Munich, now making enemies with Germany, and leaving Belgium open for Germany to take himself.
England - Standard set for attacking Russia here, both good and bad, will be vulnerable to Germany in 02 when he secures Belgium and Sweden.
Germany - Doesn't bounce Sweden, does correctly guess the Munich move by France, and picks up his +2
Austria - Absolute champion. Bounces Gal again, forces Greece, and doesn't block Trieste. Faith rewarded for another phase. Now as long as Venice stays open, I'm the vulnerable one here.
Turkey - Still nothing surprising here, went for the very safe R/T opening.
Russia - Not in Galicia after all of 01 is a major success for us, having pressure in Sweden from Germany after Spring 02 would be even better, but is forced to build on St.Petersburg, so at minimum, we're only seeing +1 down south.
Expectations:
France - A - Paris, F-Brest (if attempting an E/F, we'll see A-Marseilles I presume)
England - F-London
Germany - A-Munich, F-Berlin. I think with England going hard up top, he will forego trying to take Heligoland Bite, and focus on securing Sweden for himself.
Austria - Double Army is the best choice, F-Trieste is pretty much me dying as it doesn't benefit him at all.
Russia - F - St.Petersburg, A-Moscow (A-Sevastapol would be a welcome sight though)
Turkey - F - Smyrna..
Italy - F - Naples
Spring Movements: 1902
Twist of hands here, no fleet for Germany at all. Wish I got games as England where Germany doesn't build a second fleet… :I Got the rest though. :D Looks like the Western powers will be at odds, will comment on them when they become relevant, or anything major happens.
Thoughts - I have only one option for progress. Hope that Austria supports me to Aegean, and then we attempt to crush Bulgaria in the Autumn. The question becomes do I support Serbia to hold, or Greece. If Russia were in Galicia, I would think Serbia would be under more threat, and because of my positioning in Tunis and Albania, Greece can be taken back if Turkey does get it, so I think I have to choose Serbia, as if it falls, we just lose the slugfest eventually. I'm expecting a standoff in Gal from Russia and Austria, and Turkey to support himself to either Greece or Eastern Med. The other option, is do I expect Greece - Aegean (a support that can't be broken from Ion), and think about Serbia - Greece, Trieste - Serbia? While a possibility, this one seems a little advanced for the AI to conjure up, despite it being the most prone to succeed. Moreso, that Naples doesn't advance positioning, where as Trieste can be used to cover Serbia or Budapest from attack. Though I probably look like a madlad if I do predict that correctly.
Safe option -
ION - AEG
ALB S GRE H
NAP - ION
Kind of the best choice here, Moscow - Ukraine in the backline means Galicia will fall to Russia for sure, Rumania will be free to support Bulgaria - Serbia, but if it does, Austria gets into Galicia, and Serbia will have a retreat, which is a better situation than losing Greece entirely, as then I have to take it, and my build will not be as useful as we'll lose Albania or, just be in the exact same position again. So I think I have to hold that for him. But just to think about it…
Other option
ION S GRE - AEG
ALB S SER - GRE
NAP - TYS
Risky, as we lose Greece and the unit in a Spring move, Moscow - UKR also kills this, and we basically just lose from here, as I have to stab Austria to pick up another fleet to keep Turkey away, as Greece will translate to another fleet for the ottomans.
Autumn Movements: 1902
Well.. I was kind of right, and kind of wrong? Thankfully Serbia/Greece stoodoff with Rumania/Bulgaria, Austria self-bounced in Galicia, but Turkey got Eastern Mediterranean. Having faced this enough times by myself.. I'm pretty sure nothing happens from here. There is no way through for anyone until Austria takes Galicia. The only chance we have is for me to break Aegean, and hope that Eastern Med is making the move to Ion to bounce with Naples.
ION - AEG
NAP - ION
ALB S SER H
Builds: 1902
Successful infiltration of Aegean has been accomplished! Austria holds off Galicia again, and nothing happened anywhere else except Germany picking up Belgium. Germany please build a fleet and go for Sweden… :) Please?
Spring Movement: 1903
Well.. F-Kiel doesn't tell me he's going for Sweden, but it doesn't rule it out I suppose. There is still hope? Now the guessing game. Do I expect Austrian support to Bulgaria, or do I break the support from Constantinople? On one hand, Ionian Sea is vulnerable to a bounce with Eastern Mediterranean, but also will be able to be forced by Turkey in the Fall. On the other, going for Constantinople is risky in that my fleet will likely be destroyed, and we could lose the progress if Austria expects me to support, and we'll be right back to where we were. I think my gamble has to be to go for Bulgaria, and destroy the army, freeing Serbia to go for Rumania, and even if I lose the fleet in the Autumn, it is safer than losing both.
NAP - ION
AEG- BUL SC
ALB S SER H
TUN (On vacation)
Autumn Movements: 1903
Board:
Success once again! Moving to Bulgaria has resulted in a forced destruction, as well as the bounce in Galicia again. The rest of the board has done nothing except the German Fleet advancing to Hel, so no attack on Russia coming, but Russia is using 3 units to defend 2 centers, so that’s a major bonus for us. Now comes the big decision. What do I expect here. I'm still expecting Russia to try for Galicia, and to hold himself in Rumania, though a support to Bulgaria for Constantinople isn't out of the question. I would expect Austria to tap Rumania, as well as force Galicia, and support me to hold with Greece, or support Ionian to Aegean. I'm thinking my best option is to support myself to Aegean. Picking up Bulgaria should I get forced out of Ionian would allow for a fleet build in Naples, which I can then push Turkey back with, being that I could convoy myself back to Apulia should Turkey retreat to Adriatic, I can spare a destruction on Tunis and not be crippled with a loss of Venice.
BUL S ION - AEG
ION - AEG
ALB S TRI - SER (I don't know what else he can do really).
TUN (Still vacationing with the ladies)
This looks like it'll be an interesting game after all, and being that this is the final phase sequence in which I would cancel, this doesn't look like one of those games, so I'll wait a bit before deliberating my potential moves for this one. I'll try for a one phase per day on Spring/Autumn,(work will not always allow this, but I'll do my best) and will do the Builds/Retreats as soon as I see them. (Commentary on Retreats will be as-needed, most are non-consequential, so I'll wrap them into my thoughts during the proceeding phase).
https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=458839